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BE vs. Merger comparison
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BullsFanInTX Offline
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Post: #1
BE vs. Merger comparison
It's really no comparison when you look at the bottom teams in the merger.

http://www.tampabay.com/blogs/bulls/cont...d-mwcc-usa

Boise State, obviously, is a huge pivot between the two leagues, giving one or the other a consistent top-10 program and the BCS clout that comes with that. But even if the Big East wasn't able to lure the Broncos eastward, the Big East's proposed new lineup, poaching the other four schools from the merged-league lineup, would be ahead by most statistical measures this season.

If you take Boise out of the equation for now, we'll start with a computer ranking like USA Today's Sagarin ratings -- if the Big East were able to keep its current members and add Houston, SMU, UCF, Navy and Air Force, that lineup (not counting its 12th member) would have six teams in the Sagarin top 45 and 10 in the top 70; the merged MWC-CUSA would have one in the top 45 (Boise) and six in the top 70.

With Boise, the new league could try to make a case for an automatic BCS berth, but so much of the league's membership would be below BCS caliber that it's hard to justify its inclusion because of the weak competition in the conference. The best Sagarin ratings in the new league would be Boise (4), Houston (29), SMU (42), Tulsa (46), Nevada (48), Southern Miss (55), San Diego State (64) and Hawaii (70). After those, it gets ugly, remembering that there are only 120 schools in I-A football: Fresno (94), UTEP (95), Marshall (96), Wyoming (103), Rice (104), ECU (108), Colorado State (121), UNLV (137), Memphis (179), New Mexico (184) and UAB (187).

That's 11 schools at 94 or lower -- all the Big East schools we mentioned would all be ranked higher in the Sagarins. For any reasonable case at a BCS berth, the league would have to see the Big East collapse, which would require some of the current six football schools to land in another BCS league and the remaining schools to be so unattractive that the Conference USA teams would choose the new merge rather than combining with the Big East remnants.

Until the existing Big East schools make a commitment to stay together, there's still much in play, but it's hard to justify a BCS berth for the new league based on how the merged teams have fared against BCS level competition this season. The 22 teams in the new league are a combined 8-33 against teams in BCS conferences (or committed to do so, like TCU) -- take away Boise, Air Force, Houston, SMU and UCF (as the Big East might do) and that record drops to 5-30. The remaining six Big East football schools, by comparison, are a combined 4-6 in nonconference games against BCS opponents.
10-15-2011 12:14 PM
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Cubanbull Offline
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Post: #2
RE: BE vs. Merger comparison
and even more important the TV draw between the two is not even close
10-15-2011 12:20 PM
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RUfan03 Offline
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Post: #3
RE: BE vs. Merger comparison
Lets hope the remaining 6 f/b members see the value of staying together and bringing in at the very least SMU, Houston and UCF and any one of the 3 f/b only candidates (Boise St, Air Force and Navy). Geographically Navy would be the best. All 3 would be better.
10-15-2011 10:00 PM
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Wilkie01 Offline
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Post: #4
RE: BE vs. Merger comparison
There is just no way Louisville can afford to turn down a Big 12 invite. Depending what Missouri, the SEC, and the ACC does will determine whether Big East loses two or three from Louisville, West Virginia, Cincinnati and UConn. 05-stirthepot
10-16-2011 11:25 AM
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Cubanbull Offline
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Post: #5
RE: BE vs. Merger comparison
(10-16-2011 11:25 AM)Wilkie01 Wrote:  There is just no way Louisville can afford to turn down a Big 12 invite. Depending what Missouri, the SEC, and the ACC does will determine whether Big East loses two or three from Louisville, West Virginia, Cincinnati and UConn. 05-stirthepot

Dont count your chickens untill they hatch. UL should try to make the Big East as strong as it can be, just in case that invite doesnt come.
10-16-2011 12:05 PM
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Jugnaut Offline
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Post: #6
RE: BE vs. Merger comparison
Is UL actually interested in leaving the Big East? I know fans want to, but does the administration? If you can keep the Big East alive with 12 football teams and have super basketball, wouldn't UL want to stay? I would think Pitino drives the bus at UL.
10-16-2011 12:12 PM
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Wilkie01 Offline
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Post: #7
RE: BE vs. Merger comparison
03-melodramatic You are so frickin" wrong! 04-rock
(This post was last modified: 10-16-2011 01:44 PM by Wilkie01.)
10-16-2011 01:43 PM
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Maize Offline
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Post: #8
RE: BE vs. Merger comparison
(10-16-2011 12:12 PM)Jugnaut Wrote:  Is UL actually interested in leaving the Big East? I know fans want to, but does the administration? If you can keep the Big East alive with 12 football teams and have super basketball, wouldn't UL want to stay? I would think Pitino drives the bus at UL.

OMG no Pitino doesn't drive the bus on this. Pitino is just a soldier and is just fine going to the Big XII.

If we receive an offer we are gone, the same with UC & WVU. But we would also make the BIG EAST as strong as possible as well.
10-16-2011 01:52 PM
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Ring of Black Offline
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Post: #9
RE: BE vs. Merger comparison
(10-16-2011 01:52 PM)Maize Wrote:  
(10-16-2011 12:12 PM)Jugnaut Wrote:  Is UL actually interested in leaving the Big East? I know fans want to, but does the administration? If you can keep the Big East alive with 12 football teams and have super basketball, wouldn't UL want to stay? I would think Pitino drives the bus at UL.

OMG no Pitino doesn't drive the bus on this. Pitino is just a soldier and is just fine going to the Big XII.

If we receive an offer we are gone, the same with UC & WVU. But we would also make the BIG EAST as strong as possible as well.

Yes. It's not like any of us have invites over there yet. So we might as well try to deal with the BE until that happens.

Basically, any conference that contains WVU and UL, along with us, is fine. If we get separated from either or, worse, both, would be disaster.
10-16-2011 02:08 PM
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cfbfan89 Offline
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Post: #10
RE: BE vs. Merger comparison
(10-16-2011 01:52 PM)Maize Wrote:  
(10-16-2011 12:12 PM)Jugnaut Wrote:  Is UL actually interested in leaving the Big East? I know fans want to, but does the administration? If you can keep the Big East alive with 12 football teams and have super basketball, wouldn't UL want to stay? I would think Pitino drives the bus at UL.

OMG no Pitino doesn't drive the bus on this. Pitino is just a soldier and is just fine going to the Big XII.

If we receive an offer we are gone, the same with UC & WVU. But we would also make the BIG EAST as strong as possible as well.

Call me nuts but if offered I dont think WVU will accept a Big 12 offer, and I have my reasons to feel this way :sly:
10-18-2011 04:33 AM
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dbacard Offline
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Post: #11
RE: BE vs. Merger comparison
(10-16-2011 02:08 PM)BJUnklFkr Wrote:  Yes. It's not like any of us have invites over there yet. So we might as well try to deal with the BE until that happens.

THIS ^^^. Some UL fans act like we had it in the mail weeks ago, LMAO. We are Big East until an invite comes and then the admin will decide what to do. I would love to be in the Big XII but I am perfectly fine with the Big East if it keeps the AQ.

As for the merger comparison, Boise is key. UConn was not ranked in the final BCS standings last year and that kills us. UCF was ranked #25 so that softens the blow a bit but Boise has been Top 10 all three years. That locks the AQ if they get them.
10-18-2011 08:22 AM
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Bearcat T Offline
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Post: #12
RE: BE vs. Merger comparison
I think we all have to hope too that Houston can run the table in CUSA this year they would surely finish in the top ten then too....
10-18-2011 10:03 AM
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adcorbett Offline
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Post: #13
RE: BE vs. Merger comparison
(10-16-2011 12:12 PM)Jugnaut Wrote:  Is UL actually interested in leaving the Big East? I know fans want to, but does the administration?

Do they want to? No. But given what has been mentioned already (if they are invited and turn it down, someone else will likely take their place) they would most certainly. The big advantage staying in the BE had over the B12 was percieved stability. When Pitt and Syracuse took their ball and went home, and TCU took the B12 invite, stability of any sort was gone from the BE. Thus even if the Big XII is not inherently stable, it is still more stable than the BE at this point, is geographically closer (most teams), and provides more attractive home football games. So there is really no way Louisville, Cincy, WVU, or USF could turn it down.

What is funny is that I mentioned last year how fans of Syracuse, Rutgers, UConn, and Pitt, when they were openly talking about going to the Big Ten or the ACC (if the B10 took an ACC team), how it was funny that they talked about it like it was a done deal, but would get pissed if WVU, cincy, or UofL fans mentioned anything, as if they were allowed to have options, but you other lowly schools, you do what we say, not as we do. You need to remain loyal to us. And look where it got those schools? Syracuse and Rutgers have been the two biggest whores in terms of openly trying to get in another conference, which makes it irnoic that Rutgers may be the one who ultimately ends up getting the shaft in all of this.
10-18-2011 03:48 PM
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