Pure speculation.

But if Mizzou signs off on the reported revenue sharing agreement that locks in the Universities' T1/T2 rights for the next 6 years, I don't think that the Big 12 will expand anytime soon.

There's contradicting information out there regarding what the current Universities would prefer to do regarding expansion, but at least a few members do not want to go to 12 teams and add a Championship game.

If the conference decides that it doesn't want that Championship game, then there is little incentive to grow to 10 if, (a) the conference has been stabilized (safeguarded against more teams fleeing) via the TV rights agreement, and (b) the current TV deal is not in jeopardy (it's been reported that the current agreed upon TV deal will not be amended or rescinded if the conference stays at 9).

So unless the conference can land a "Major Addition" that would allow it reopen the TV negotiations and get more money (and I don't think that team exist except for maybe Notre Dame but they aren't joining any conference at this time) I think it will wait to expand, at least until the current TV deal ends, or the market grows to a point where the current deal is undervalued enough that it makes fiscal sense to add more teams and renegotiate the contract, or the six year limit on the T1/T2 rights starts approaching.

I hope I'm wrong. I'd like to see NIU in the Big 12, but then again this respite could give NIU some time to make a better case for itself.

No offense....but NIU isn't on any expansion list for the Big XII. ECU is closer to the SEC expansion list (which it also isn't on) than NIU is to the Big XII list. I guess we can all want things. Don't let your dreams die....but don't hold your breath either.

(10-03-2011 02:39 PM)Howl-n-Prowl Wrote:  Pure speculation.

But if Mizzou signs off on the reported revenue sharing agreement that locks in the Universities' T1/T2 rights for the next 6 years, I don't think that the Big 12 will expand anytime soon.

There's contradicting information out there regarding what the current Universities would prefer to do regarding expansion, but at least a few members do not want to go to 12 teams and add a Championship game.

If the conference decides that it doesn't want that Championship game, then there is little incentive to grow to 10 if, (a) the conference has been stabilized (safeguarded against more teams fleeing) via the TV rights agreement, and (b) the current TV deal is not in jeopardy (it's been reported that the current agreed upon TV deal will not be amended or rescinded if the conference stays at 9).

So unless the conference can land a "Major Addition" that would allow it reopen the TV negotiations and get more money (and I don't think that team exist except for maybe Notre Dame but they aren't joining any conference at this time) I think it will wait to expand, at least until the current TV deal ends, or the market grows to a point where the current deal is undervalued enough that it makes fiscal sense to add more teams and renegotiate the contract, or the six year limit on the T1/T2 rights starts approaching.

I hope I'm wrong. I'd like to see NIU in the Big 12, but then again this respite could give NIU some time to make a better case for itself.

You seem to be forgetting that the Big-12 has an expansion committee..? Sorry, but I would not expect NIU to make that list.

(10-03-2011 02:43 PM)LSUtah Wrote:  You seem to be forgetting that the Big-12 has an expansion committee..? Sorry, but I would not expect NIU to make that list.

That committee exists in order to evaluate the possibility of expansion. For the reasons I stated, I think that the committee decides against expansion at this time.

(10-03-2011 02:47 PM)Howl-n-Prowl Wrote:  

(10-03-2011 02:43 PM)LSUtah Wrote:  You seem to be forgetting that the Big-12 has an expansion committee..? Sorry, but I would not expect NIU to make that list.

That committee exists in order to evaluate the possibility of expansion. For the reasons I stated, I think that the committee decides against expansion at this time.

Yes and you have put forth some good reasoning behind that assertion.

Where Texas stands on expansion is a key measure of what could potentially happen. The Texas AD prefers to stick at 9 or 10 teams (which they have currently) and does not want to add any Texas teams. The odds of going to 12 and grabbing Cincinnati out the Big East are far slimmer than what the reports would make you believe.

Missouri may as well sit tight with the other 8 schools for right now. With the ACC at 14 and SEC at 13 its only a matter of time before the B1G decides to expand. For the last two decades the number of 12 for conferences was sacrosanct but that isn't the case anymore.