MongoSlade Wrote:Any school in the SEC (yes, including Vandy) would be a better attendance and/or TV draw than C-USA's #1 because of the "SEC brand". The LB folks are aware of that, too.
Looks like it's going to be "SEC vs. Big East" in Memphis starting '06. Would Notre Dame be included in this deal...?
Not if CUSA #1 is Memphis.
The Liberty is in a quandry. Fans from an SEC #5 or #6 school would look at the Liberty as a consolation prize, nothing to brag about or strive for. The same for a BE #3 school. Sure, those school's fans would buy tickets, but not as many as some seem to think. While a CUSA team's priority
is the Liberty.
In addition, the Liberty also has to cater to the local population. 35,000 tickets are generally sold locally... Roughly, 75% of those 35,000 (26,250) are Memphis fans. A bowl game must also be sold to the local populace for it to thrive. All bowl games garner the majority of gross revenues from the locals. The Liberty, for all intents and purposes, has thrived with the CUSA/MWC match-up.
If the Liberty turns it's back on CUSA #1 and goes with a SEC/BE match-up, then a lot (not
all but a lot) of tickets will go unsold locally. The Liberty would be forced to have the invited teams' fans make up the difference, when those fans will not be as motivated to go.
The Liberty has a tough call on their hands.
Personally, I see the following outcomes most llikely:
1) The Liberty stays with C-USA and re-ups with the MWC to forge a renewed C-USA #1/MWC #1 package. (55% chance)
2) The Liberty stays with C-USA and signs with the BE to create a C-USA #1/BE # 3 or #4 match-up. (25%)
3) The ACC comes in, and agrees to send it's #5 or #6 to play C-USA #1. (11%)
4) SEC #5 or #6/BE #3 or #4 match-up. (9%)
Of course, I could be wrong.