From Boston Globe article this AM...(seems to be very TV Market related...and if something were to happen in July...believe he might of meant by June 30th...as that would be the deadline for jumping ship in 2012):

Nova balk doesn't scuttle Big East Expansion

Excerpt:

A key factor is the television money in the new batch of contracts. The Big East is a distant sixth among the BCS conferences....Getting to 10 teams by adding Central Florida would be a logical choice because it adds the Orlando television market and a Florida recruiting base. Although no one at UCF will talk officially about moving from Conference USA to the Big East, school officials are clearly ready to take the next step to a BCS conference.

Central Florida, whose main opposition to a move is coming from South Florida, which does not want a Big East infringement on its Florida base, remains the most viable and logical choice. If things go smoothly, an announcement could come in July that UCF is joining TCU in the Big East for the 2012 football season.

Nova balk doesn't scuttle Big East Expansion

With the announcement Monday that Villanova’s plan to elevate its football program from the FCS level (formerly Division 1-AA) to the FBS level (formerly 1-A) will be put on hold, at least temporarily, the Big East, according to several league sources, will now focus on its next plan for increasing its football segment. It could grow to 10 or perhaps 12 teams, although that may happen only if Villanova comes back into the picture.

“We are looking at all our options,’’ said Big East commissioner John Marinatto, who made the first move last fall when TCU was added as the ninth school in football and the 17th in basketball, effective in 2012. “But it’s a very complicated process and it is going to take time.’’



See link for full story.

http://www.boston.com/sports/colleges/me...ing_pains/

Key Notes:
- BIG EAST is expanding mostly to get their TV Contract on-par with the ACCs
- UCF, Houston, ECU, and even Memphis are on the table
- The BBall schools may split if they move to 12 football schools, but that is a last resort
- The Big East basketball tournament in New York will go back to 12 teams.
- Here's the key "next move" statement:

All such details have not even been discussed on a leaguewide basis yet. If the assumption is that Villanova does not make the leap to FBS, the Big East still needs a 10th team. And that becomes the main topic of discussion among the Big East presidents, with the hope of coming to a resolution within two to three months.

Central Florida, whose main opposition to a move is coming from South Florida, which does not want a Big East infringement on its Florida base, remains the most viable and logical choice. If things go smoothly, an announcement could come in July that UCF is joining TCU in the Big East for the 2012 football season.

Interesting stuff.

Mark has sources, but things often change. When the BIG EAST first announced their expansion to 10 teams, he had a story a day later with inside information about the BIG EAST courting TCU for football-only. He said that TCU wouldn't accept that, and the BIG EAST would rather offer UCF All-Sports instead of TCU. Obviously that was wrong in the end....(but may have been true at the time of print)

A fair amount of conjecture and not a lot of reporting in that artcle. All I read was the league is still looking to get to 10 and then a lot of his opinion.

(04-13-2011 07:30 AM)The Brown Bull Wrote:  A fair amount of conjecture and not a lot of reporting in that artcle. All I read was the league is still looking to get to 10 and then a lot of his opinion.

I agree. The guy has pretty strong sources from what I've heard, but it's hard to tell what is conjecture in that.

I think if anything though he's done a lot of talking with at least *someone* within the Big East, and that is probably their opinion. But as we all know there are like 4 different camps in the BIG EAST, and this is probably just the opinion of one of those!

Basketball schools would be committing suicide if they leave the Big East. The football schools would keep the BE name and MSG for the tourney. The basketball schools would essentially be the A-10 but a little deeper.

He is not exactly going out on a limb. We know the Big East wants to get to 10 and if Nova is dealyed then you might as well flip a coin over UH or UCF for 2012. UH might fall back to the 2014 expansion with maybe Nova at that point since both need stadiums. UCF already has everything in place and can expand their stadium fast if need be. ECU by the way already has 50k and fills it and looking to go to 60k in the next couple years so if you want 60k fans in the stands and a brand new tv market in NC VA....just call us.

(04-13-2011 07:42 AM)animus Wrote:  Basketball schools would be committing suicide if they leave the Big East. The football schools would keep the BE name and MSG for the tourney. The basketball schools would essentially be the A-10 but a little deeper.

Agreed, which is why I think they will just "suck it up" and let the football schools go to 12 and get it over with.

The biggest split I see is a loose "federation" where they each have their own tv contracts, commish, and other things...but still share things like MSG, and maybe a pre-conference tournment. I don't think anyone wants to drop the BIG EAST name.

(04-13-2011 07:39 AM)saxamoophone Wrote:  

(04-13-2011 07:30 AM)The Brown Bull Wrote:  A fair amount of conjecture and not a lot of reporting in that artcle. All I read was the league is still looking to get to 10 and then a lot of his opinion.

I agree. The guy has pretty strong sources from what I've heard, but it's hard to tell what is conjecture in that.

I think if anything though he's done a lot of talking with at least *someone* within the Big East, and that is probably their opinion. But as we all know there are like 4 different camps in the BIG EAST, and this is probably just the opinion of one of those!

Funny you say that, I was thinking this the other day after the Nova announcement delay.

What good are "inside sources"? No one inside the Big East appears to know what is going on....so what good is it to report it? Marinnato himself doesn't seem to know what is going on..... and all those "inside sources" at Villanova did not see all of this coming.

What happened to all that talk that the bb schools were prepared to go to 20? I remember Marinatto saying once 17 was accepted going past that was no big deal.

I guess the question is, can Nova and all the basketball schools get over this whole Nova mess? It is hard for me to believe they are just going to let this go but looking at the money, a split does not make financial sense for either side.

This article implies that 10 is still the number to get to but if Nova is still included then possibly 12 could be in play.

(04-13-2011 07:47 AM)The Brown Bull Wrote:  Funny you say that, I was thinking this the other day after the Nova announcement delay.

What good are "inside sources"? No one inside the Big East appears to know what is going on....so what good is it to report it? Marinnato himself doesn't seem to know what is going on..... and all those "inside sources" at Villanova did not see all of this coming.

Ha! Yeah I think the only good "inside source" that I would take to the bank is if I had majority vote of voting BIG EAST presidents in a room together and they all told me the same thing.

(04-13-2011 07:47 AM)The Brown Bull Wrote:  

(04-13-2011 07:39 AM)saxamoophone Wrote:  

(04-13-2011 07:30 AM)The Brown Bull Wrote:  A fair amount of conjecture and not a lot of reporting in that artcle. All I read was the league is still looking to get to 10 and then a lot of his opinion.

I agree. The guy has pretty strong sources from what I've heard, but it's hard to tell what is conjecture in that.

I think if anything though he's done a lot of talking with at least *someone* within the Big East, and that is probably their opinion. But as we all know there are like 4 different camps in the BIG EAST, and this is probably just the opinion of one of those!

Funny you say that, I was thinking this the other day after the Nova announcement delay.

What good are "inside sources"? No one inside the Big East appears to know what is going on....so what good is it to report it? Marinnato himself doesn't seem to know what is going on..... and all those "inside sources" at Villanova did not see all of this coming.

Some great gem of journalism that article is. He quotes from the Big East press release and cuts it up to make it sound like he personally interviewed Marinatto, then made a ton of conjecture and didn't clearly indicate it was his opinion, or the opinion of someone he's talking to.

UCF "could be" in the BE
UCF "could be" in CUSA
UCF "could be" in Sunbelt
UCF "could be" in B12
UCF "could be" in SEC.

I believe this trainwreck "announcement" by the BE (and 'Nova, FTM) this week/ in regards to the months-old 'Nova "simple yes or no" shows that NO ONE truly knows what is going on, and anyone who claims to have info from "inside sources" or similar means has no actual idea what they are talking about......

I am long since done with getting "excited" or "deflated" about what is reported in the pres in regards to this issue......if/when expansion EVER happen, and I see people standing in front of a Big East (or other conference banner) talking about what is DONE, then I'll worry about it......no point at all until then.

(04-13-2011 07:53 AM)saxamoophone Wrote:  

(04-13-2011 07:47 AM)The Brown Bull Wrote:  Funny you say that, I was thinking this the other day after the Nova announcement delay.

What good are "inside sources"? No one inside the Big East appears to know what is going on....so what good is it to report it? Marinnato himself doesn't seem to know what is going on..... and all those "inside sources" at Villanova did not see all of this coming.

Ha! Yeah I think the only good "inside source" that I would take to the bank is if I had majority vote of voting BIG EAST presidents in a room together and they all told me the same thing.

Uh... I think Nova would tell you
Better get it in writing

Was this an opinion column? Is he sourcing Bianchi?

My 1st post, how much would it devalue the TV contract between Fox and CUSA if the BE takes 2 (or 3) major programs from CUSA?

(04-13-2011 09:06 AM)Lumber Wrote:  My 1st post, how much would it devalue the TV contract between Fox and CUSA if the BE takes 2 (or 3) major programs from CUSA?

In my opinion, it would have a huge impact on the CUSA TV deal.

In the not-too-distant past, many on the expansion board said that no CUSA teams could bring any TV value to the Big East...that any increase in TV revenue would not offset the cost of the "pie" being split further. To support these claims, a popular model utilized was to divide the CUSA tv revenues by 12, thereby arriving at an estimated "value" to the conference. As this value was significantly less than the estimated 3.7 million per team each football playing member is receiving, it was believed that no team could generate value in excess of what they would take, shoule they join the Big East.

The fallacy in this line of thinking is the assumption that all members of the conference contribute equally to the value of the television contract.

Under this line of thinking, losing ECU, UCF and Houston would not result in any less tv revenues per team once the contract is re-written as all members contribute evenly and would keep their per-team share.

I don't believe this is the case. Together, ECU, UCF and Houston represent the last 5 conference champions, two of the conferences best TV markets and the conferences largest fan base. All three have been nationally ranked during the last 5 years and have had marquis BCS wins.

The loss of two or three of any of the top programs in CUSA would have a tremendous impact on the perceived value of a television contract for the remaining schools.

I would think there would some type of contract renegotiation. Also, I think I'm in line with everyone else here, thinking that who cares. How many articles have we seen projecting conclusions supported by "sources"? I think bad weathermen are more reliable.

(04-13-2011 09:21 AM)piratefan1975 Wrote:  

(04-13-2011 09:06 AM)Lumber Wrote:  My 1st post, how much would it devalue the TV contract between Fox and CUSA if the BE takes 2 (or 3) major programs from CUSA?

The loss of two or three of any of the top programs in CUSA would have a tremendous impact on the perceived value of a television contract for the remaining schools.

I agree. For a football TV contract, I'd say around 80% of the value of the conference resides from about 5 members. You remove half of those 5 and that TV deal is worth 50%+ less.

For that reason, I have to believe FOX has a provision to get out of the contract / renegotiate it, if the teams change.

The same thing just happened with the MWC, while the TV contracts are different, I bet they're similar in this regard and the answer is out there.