2011 Spring Preview - Sun Belt Schedule/Picks

By Staff
CollegeFootballNews.com
Posted Mar 25, 2011


WKU RB Bobby Rainey

2011 Sun Belt Spring Preview

So here's how this works. 1) We're going off our beliefs about how good we think the teams are going into spring, ball, and of course we can and will change these up a bit as things happen. We'll do this all again during Preview 2011 time. 2) Remember, there have to be upsets somewhere. No one could've ever seen Texas being so bad last year and no one would've ever picked Jacksonville State to beat Ole Miss. 3) Remember, timing is everything with schedules. Getting a week off at the right time can change a season and lead to a huge upset.

Way-Too-Early 2011 Spring Season Predictions
1. Troy 6-1
T2. Arkansas State 5-3
T2. FIU 5-3
T2. ULM 5-3
T5. Florida Atlantic 3-5
T5. Middle Tennessee 3-5
T5. North Texas 3-5
8. Louisiana 2-6
9. Western Kentucky 1-7
...
...
...

Anybody got their predicitions from last year? Would love to see how those panned-out.

If you'll noticed, they don't have anyone winning an OOC game, outside of nonFB$ games.

(03-25-2011 09:51 AM)trojanbrutha Wrote:  If you'll noticed, they don't have anyone winning an OOC game, outside of nonFB$ games.

I call bullsh*t on that prediction (the not winning an OOC game). SBC hit a bump in the road last year, but I expect at least a couple of Money Conference wins this year.

I'll wait for Phil Steele's predictions. Troy won't lose to UAB at home.

They also have Memphis winning in Murfreesboro and in Jonesboro. Methinks the Tigers will be lucky to split those games.

(03-25-2011 10:13 AM)KAjunRaider Wrote:  

(03-25-2011 09:51 AM)trojanbrutha Wrote:  If you'll noticed, they don't have anyone winning an OOC game, outside of nonFB$ games.

I call bullsh*t on that prediction (the not winning an OOC game). SBC hit a bump in the road last year, but I expect at least a couple of Money Conference wins this year.

Interest comment, KR. Could you share your predictions for a couple "Money Conference" wins for 2011? The SBC can use any and all it can muster. Thanks.

(03-25-2011 11:06 AM)MTPiKapp Wrote:  They also have Memphis winning in Murfreesboro and in Jonesboro. Methinks the Tigers will be lucky to split those games.

They will lose both.

(03-25-2011 11:15 AM)Fanof49ASU Wrote:  

(03-25-2011 11:06 AM)MTPiKapp Wrote:  They also have Memphis winning in Murfreesboro and in Jonesboro. Methinks the Tigers will be lucky to split those games.

They will lose both.

I tend to agree, we just have more question marks in Murfreesboro. That said, as I've been telling anyone who will listen all offseason, our offense is going to be dramatically improved returning 4 of 5 on the OL, 2 very good running backs(possibly the LSU transfer as well) and having lost only one WR of consequence and being rid of the human turnover machine at QB. With our offense being dramatically improved, I think even if we struggle on the defensive side of the ball, we should have little problem outscoring the Tigers, especially considering they're changing offensive systems and just lost their only quarterback with collegiate game experience.

(03-25-2011 11:25 AM)MTPiKapp Wrote:  ...and being rid of the human turnover machine at QB.

We will miss him.

(03-25-2011 11:32 AM)Fanof49ASU Wrote:  

(03-25-2011 11:25 AM)MTPiKapp Wrote:  ...and being rid of the human turnover machine at QB.

We will miss him.

Funny how fast things change, no one outside of Troy would have said that after 2009...

(03-25-2011 11:35 AM)MTPiKapp Wrote:  

(03-25-2011 11:32 AM)Fanof49ASU Wrote:  

(03-25-2011 11:25 AM)MTPiKapp Wrote:  ...and being rid of the human turnover machine at QB.

We will miss him.

Funny how fast things change, no one outside of Troy would have said that after 2009...

You're a pretty level headed guy. Serious question for you PiKapp. Whats the deal with the Troy/MTSU rivalry? Is it 100% mental? Or does Troy have the heads and tails better team most years, or just some convenient matchup problems (small o-line vs big d-line)?

And what do you think about the game being so early in the season? It's our home opener as it stands.

2011 top 4-

1. Troy
2. FIU
3. MT
4. ULM

i think that you can't make a good assessment of stAte, UNT, and UL based on the fact that all three made coaching changes. just going off of what is coming back for those 4 programs above, those would be my top 4 as a pre-season list. I bet you will see at least 2 of those schools who made coaching changes end up in the top 4 by the end of the season though.

Wow, Troy only has to play 7 conference games?

This guy obviously knows what he is talking about, both FIU & stAte losing on Oct 18 even though we are playing each other!

I like the recruiting comments. THey say ASU recruited a lot of help in the offensive backfield. Both RBs they list are playing DB in college, one of hte QBs is a WR and the other is a TE/ emergency QB.

(03-25-2011 05:41 PM)FIU4Ever Wrote:  This guy obviously knows what he is talking about, both FIU & stAte losing on Oct 18 even though we are playing each other!

Ha! Damn interns!!!
That goes to show the amount of effort they put into these things.

This article makes more sense when you view the author's facebook picture.

(03-25-2011 09:51 AM)trojanbrutha Wrote:  If you'll noticed, they don't have anyone winning an OOC game, outside of nonFB$ games.

They do have FIU over Akron (who is in the MAC).

(03-25-2011 02:11 PM)TroyFootball05 Wrote:  

(03-25-2011 11:35 AM)MTPiKapp Wrote:  

(03-25-2011 11:32 AM)Fanof49ASU Wrote:  

(03-25-2011 11:25 AM)MTPiKapp Wrote:  ...and being rid of the human turnover machine at QB.

We will miss him.

Funny how fast things change, no one outside of Troy would have said that after 2009...

You're a pretty level headed guy. Serious question for you PiKapp. Whats the deal with the Troy/MTSU rivalry? Is it 100% mental? Or does Troy have the heads and tails better team most years, or just some convenient matchup problems (small o-line vs big d-line)?

And what do you think about the game being so early in the season? It's our home opener as it stands.

If I had to make an estimation it would be this:

2006 Probably should have been a toss-up, but if I had to say which team was better, I would more than likely say Troy, but because we were undefeated in conference at the time and had dominated the game for three quarters, it's viewed as a tremendous choke job by the Blue Raiders(as it probably should be, even if Troy was the better team) if we could have just stopped a 4th and 19 or covered an onside kick that went directly through the hands of one of the guys on our coverage team, we win that game.

2007 I think Troy was the better team, the game was at Troy, and there was a small mental aspect from the way 2006 went down.

2008 Again Troy was the better team and the mental aspect was really setting in.

2009 This is the one year that I think Blue Raider fans can at least make an argument that we have been the better or more talented team. I'm not saying we definitely were, but when you compare the rest of our seasons, this is the one year where the Troy game seems like a total anomaly. There will always be something fishy about that game, about the way Dasher played and/or some of the comments made by Tony Franklin going into the game. I'm not accusing Troy of any wrong doing and I don't want to make any direct accusations about Dasher or Franklin, but again, I will always wonder what really went on in that game, because we were a much better team than we showed in that game and when you compare what each team did to the rest of the conference, that game should have been one for the ages.

2010 The season was a complete mess, I think on paper we had the talent to at least have a chance in 2010, but there was so much going on away from the field in 2010 our team really only played to their potential once or twice all season and they definitely didn't that night against Troy. Had we been able to, I dunno, Troy was probably still the better team and at this point the mental aspect is pretty concrete.


Now all that said, I'd like to jump back to 2006 for a moment. I really think 2006 was the year that really changed the dynamic of the Sun Belt over the last 5 years. Had MT been able to stop that 4th and 19 or fall on that onside kick, we would have gone to New Orleans at 8-4 rather than going to Detroit at 7-5. We would have likely stomped a mudhole in Rice like the Trojans did, rather than running into the Central Michigan buzzsaw. So we would have likely finished 9-4 rather than 7-6. Troy would have been 6-6 after our game, I don't know who else was out there as an at-large, if the Trojans would have ended up in Detriot and who knows how a Troy vs Central Michigan(in a virtual home game) would have played out, but I would say Troy would have had a tough go of it. So that collapse in the final two minutes in 2006 was the likely the difference in MT going 9-4 rather than 7-6 and Troy going 6-6(or possibly 7-6 or 6-7) rather going 8-5.

Now I'm not saying that would have changed the entire dymanic of the league and we would have just reeled off our fifth straight season with at least a share of the league title, but I do think it would have changed things a fair amount. We definitely would have seen a small bump in recruiting from a 9-4 outright champions, bowl winning season over our 7-6 co-champions bowl loser season. Coming off a 9-4 season, maybe we don't go down to FAU and drop the season opener in 2007, or close games to FAU and WKU. Perhaps the seed of doubt against Troy is never really planted, so maybe Troy wins one or both of 2007 and 2008 because they're the better team, but they don't sting quite as much without that 2006 collapse in the back of our minds. Perhaps we're able to win in 2009 with the dynamic of the series altered, which would have meant another outright championship and an 11 win season.

It may be the extreme end of the spectrum, but I think it's at least possible that had we held on in 2006, we would have won a few more games over the years due to improved recruitment(which is not to say we would have jumped to having top 50 classes, but we may have been able to snag just a few impact players we just missed on, which would be enough to change the outcome in a few close games).

As it is we've gone

2006 7-6
2007 5-7
2008 5-7
2009 10-3
2010 6-7

I think we could have gone more like

2006 9-4
2007 7-5
2008 8-4
2009 11-2

2010 is the year that I really don't know how much would have changed, Dasher may have still had the off field exploits that he did, but I think there's a distinct possibility that with improved seasons over the previous few years we might have had another quarterback ready to take the team over, which we didn't have this year. So who knows, 2010 may have played out the same was or it could have been better.


Anyway, all that said, who knows what would have happened? If my extreme scenario had played out, maybe a team comes calling for Stockstill that we couldn't compete with, or maybe our guys get over confident and fall flat on their faces. I suppose at the end of the day, all that matters is Troy has won 5 straight in the series and based on what we both having coming back this year(and even though I'm higher on MT in 2011 than a lot of folks are) I don't expect the trend to change in 2011.