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To advance to the Sweet 16, it's better to be a 12 seed than an 8 ...
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quo vadis Offline
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To advance to the Sweet 16, it's better to be a 12 seed than an 8 ...
... because the #8 has always had to face a powerful #1 in the second round. And this is because the #1s (and #2s) tend to be discontinuously-stronger than the seeds below them. Likewise, the #15 and #16 seeds tend to be discontinuously weaker than other low seeds.

Thus, it's intrinsically harder to beat a #9 and a #1 (which is what the #8 has to do, if all the seeds hold), than to beat a #5 and #4 (which is what a #12 has to do if all seeds hold). Furthermore, because the #1s are so much better, and because they play the extremely weak #16s in round 1, the #8 has always had to face a #1 in round 2. In contrast, because of quality-compression in the middle seeds, #4 and #5 seeds often are victims of upsets, meaning that our hypothetical #12 has at least some chance to face a #13 in round 2 instead of a #4, because the #13 upset the #4 in round one.

The same factors apply to the #10 and #11 seeds as well, since they don't have to face the #1 seed before the Sweet 16 either. This also applies to their mirrors: #5 and #6 teams are also in a kind of safe "sweet" spot for reaching the Sweet 16, because they avoid #1 and #2 in the first two rounds as well (which bodes well for the Big East, since we seem to have quite a few 5 and 6 seeds in this tourney).

Since the tournament expanded to 64 in 1985, here are the number of times various lower seeds have won their initial 4-team mini-tournament and reached the Sweet 16:

#8 seed: 9 times
#9 seed: 4 times
#10 seed: 19 times
#11 seed: 11 times
#12 seed: 18 times

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com...ckward/?hp
(This post was last modified: 03-16-2011 12:31 AM by quo vadis.)
03-16-2011 12:19 AM
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KnightLight Offline
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Post: #2
RE: To advance to the Sweet 16, it's better to be a 12 seed than an 8 ...
(03-16-2011 12:19 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  Since the tournament expanded to 64 in 1985, here are the number of times various lower seeds have won their initial 4-team mini-tournament and reached the Sweet 16:

#8 seed: 9 times
#9 seed: 4 times
#10 seed: 19 times
#11 seed: 11 times
#12 seed: 18 times

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com...ckward/?hp

Interesting stats.
03-16-2011 08:04 AM
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quo vadis Offline
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RE: To advance to the Sweet 16, it's better to be a 12 seed than an 8 ...
(03-16-2011 08:04 AM)KnightLight Wrote:  
(03-16-2011 12:19 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  Since the tournament expanded to 64 in 1985, here are the number of times various lower seeds have won their initial 4-team mini-tournament and reached the Sweet 16:

#8 seed: 9 times
#9 seed: 4 times
#10 seed: 19 times
#11 seed: 11 times
#12 seed: 18 times

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com...ckward/?hp

Interesting stats.

They are, and it shows how big an advantage the 1s have. Not only do they tend to be clearly-better than other teams, but the current "pod" system exacerbates that advantage because these seeds almost always play very close to home in the first two rounds. So there's usually no dodging them for those 8 and 9 seeds.

25 years ago, when one of my powerful Georgetown teams would be named the #1 seed in the West, they really were sent "out west". They'd play their first and second round games in LA or San Francisco.

Now, Charlotte arena counts as being "sent west" for Duke ...

Essentially, being a 1 seed means you have a bye in round 1 (no 1 seed has ever lost to a 16 in the past 25 years), and an extremely good chance to win in round 2 as well. For a 1 seed, the tourney really doesn't start UNTIL the Sweet 16 (by start i mean having to face a team with a good chance to beat you), whereas for everyone else, it starts immediately.

Coach K once said he views the tournament not as a single tournament, but as three four-team mini-tournaments: You win one 4-team tourney to advance from 64 to sweet 16, another to advance from the S16 to the Final 4, and then the third to win the national title. That's a good way to look at it, and what these stats show is that the #1 seeds practically get a "bye" out of their first mini-tourney. They only have to really struggle to win 2 of them, not 3 like other teams.
(This post was last modified: 03-16-2011 08:23 AM by quo vadis.)
03-16-2011 08:17 AM
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bitcruncher Offline
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Post: #4
RE: To advance to the Sweet 16, it's better to be a 12 seed than an 8 ...
WVU's last NCAA tourney team under John Beilein was one of the 4 #9's to make it. I'm sure you guys remember this...
03-16-2011 08:48 AM
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quo vadis Offline
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RE: To advance to the Sweet 16, it's better to be a 12 seed than an 8 ...
(03-16-2011 08:48 AM)bitcruncher Wrote:  WVU's last NCAA tourney team under John Beilein was one of the 4 #9's to make it. I'm sure you guys remember this...

IIRC, you guys were a #7 seed that year (Duke was a #2 seed), and Huggins was the coach. But i'll defer to a WVU fan on those facts ...

But that doesn't lessen the achievement: #7 seeds are historically also in the death-pocket, with chances no better than 8s or 9s to advance to the Sweet 16.
03-16-2011 09:47 AM
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bitcruncher Offline
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Post: #6
RE: To advance to the Sweet 16, it's better to be a 12 seed than an 8 ...
Hey! It's still early, and I stayed up to watch the end of the Clemson game... 03-banghead
(This post was last modified: 03-16-2011 10:38 AM by bitcruncher.)
03-16-2011 10:37 AM
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