Sir Galahad
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RE: 10th member being added "very soon"
(03-14-2011 05:12 PM)Bull Wrote: (03-14-2011 04:40 PM)KnightTower Wrote: (03-14-2011 04:24 PM)Bull Wrote: (03-14-2011 04:02 PM)KnightTower Wrote: (03-14-2011 03:31 PM)Bull Wrote: Also, it's a flawed analogy to compare their past FCS attendence in an ancient stadium, to what they might draw against FBS opponents in a brand new waterfront home.
Is it flawed? If they only draw 6,000 now (for FCS champ games, no less) ON CAMPUS in a stadium that holds 12,000 how in the heck are they supposed to attract MORE people to a stadium 30 minutes from campus? Attracting 6,000 now is pretty impressive considering the entire undergraduate population is 6,300. With postgrads, its still only 9,500 students.
Even if they play FBS opponents, I'm not seeing where an additional 12,000 fans are going to come from. Visiting schools, I guess?
Of course, it doesn't matter if they actually fill the stadium or not. As long as they can "report" a 15,000 average for each game, its all good.
Good God man it's the fifth most populated city in the United States! Put a good product there in an attractive environment, and you're telling me they cant pull in 25-45K for BCS football? I don't care if it's a football town or not. Remember when Rutgers was winning and they turned the NYC lights red? I just love all these clairvoyant people (again, from certain cities) who just know this won't work. As if no one has ever successfully moved up from FCS before? I'm not slinging mud here, but I have to point out that a team in Orlando didn't even sell out their conf championship game. Point being, attendence is tough all over (especially for schools in 4-sport major cities), and sans TCU there was no other huge football 'get' out there... which makes moving up Nova just fine. For now.
And I love the clairvoyant people who somehow think that Villanova will be have relatively quick success in the FBS.
But let's assume in the unlikely event that they the ARE an successful quickly. Like you say, put a winning product on the field and people will come. But...wait. Villanova IS a winning program. They won the FCS, right? They've been successful for awhile now. But no one is showing up now. No one in Philly cares now.
Maybe that's not a good example. FCS and FBS is apples to oranges.
Let's take a look at a relatively successful FBS program in Philly: the 2009 Temple Owls football team who went 9-3 and 7-1 in the MAC.
Wanna know what they averaged? 15,600.
Good god man! Its the fifth-most populated city in the US! How could they not pull in 25K-45K for football?!!?
Let's also remember that Temple's student body is 6 times larger than Villanova's at 36,000.
Of course, fans don't travel much in the MAC. That'll be different in the Big East. So this might all be moot and other Big East fans will travel there en masse.
And yes, that WAS mudslinging, but I'll ignore it as its unrelated to the topic.
No premonitions here, I never said they would be successful. That's the point, no one knows. But based on the (complicated) situation the BE has, it's perfectly reasonable to allow existing member Nova to move up... again, sans any other powerhouse candidate. I've seen all your numbers before. The fact remains, some small schools in large markets can draw well and drum up support, if done correctly. BCS football is an entirely different ticket. It's up to Nova to decide 'how' they are going to move forward. If they put a good product out there, in a good venue, they 'may' draw enough. Fortunately, it's up to the big east and not fanbases. Also, things are tough all over, the economy is horrible. It's not mudslinging to show legitimate examples of that close to home.
That is where I think you are entirely wrong. The Big East has a major perception problem nationally and the Big East solution is to add a 1-aa program that averages less than 5,000 fans? Yes TCU is joining but any positive the Big East gets from them will be wiped out in two seconds with the Nova announcement.
Now let me address the attendance issues. I will say for sure that Nova will not come close to getting 35,000 fans to a game for a very, very long time. I would be shocked if Nova even approaches 15,000 and I will give you a case study to compare it to.
Florida International University located in Miami averaged 16,545 per their five games last year. That placed them 108th out of 120 schools. Now FIU plays in a newly renovated stadium on campus expanding the stadium up to 23,500 seats. They have 1,500 club seats and 20 suites. The Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach MSA rankes two spots behind the Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington MSA, just under 300,000 people less. I would also say FIU is in a much more college football crazed state/area than Villanova. FIU also has over 44,000 students compared to 6,000 for Nova.
Now if FIU is saying they are averaging just around 15,000, that would mean actual attendance is closer to 10,000. If FIU struggles to get 10,000 fans in Miami, Florida, how hard do you think Nova will struggle to get close to those numbers in a smaller stadium, off campus, designed for a different sport in a city that does not support college football.
(This post was last modified: 03-15-2011 09:26 AM by Sir Galahad.)
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