It looks like there will be 15 bubble teams fighting for 4 spots?

Bubble teams by conference:

Big East - Cincy, Marquette
Big Ten - Michigan
Big 12 - Baylor, Oklahoma State
ACC - VT
SEC - Ole Miss, Alabama
Pac10 - Cal
CUSA - So. Miss
A10 - Richmond, Dayton
MW - Colorado State
Horizon - Valpo
CAA - VCU
West Coast - Gonzaga

Considering the competition, maybe the Bearcats and Marquette aren't as in bad shape as it looks? Some of the worse resumes I can ever recall seeing.

Cheers,
Neil

Edited. Somehow my handwritten list combined Horizon - Valpo with CAA - VCU - Thanks to Matt for the catch.

CAA isn't Valpo. Horizon League for them. Think VCU and Mason are looking at CAA bubble slots.

(02-16-2011 03:13 PM)mattsarz Wrote:  CAA isn't Valpo. Horizon League for them. Think VCU and Mason are looking at CAA bubble slots.

Thanks for the catch. Agree VCU from CAA. I think ODU and Mason are IN now with their wins over VCU on the road.

Cheers,
Neil

Horizon is very tight right now. Valpo, Cleveland St. and Butler can win the regular season title and that's important in the HL because they use the regular season champ's home court for the semifinals and the best remaining conference record for the championship game. A fair amount of incentives to finish 1st the in the league.

And Butler has a little of that Gonzaga, or in MLB terms NYY, mystique. They're the champ until someone knocks them off. Interesting that Gonzaga's run could end this year too.

(02-16-2011 03:33 PM)mattsarz Wrote:  Horizon is very tight right now. Valpo, Cleveland St. and Butler can win the regular season title and that's important in the HL because they use the regular season champ's home court for the semifinals and the best remaining conference record for the championship game. A fair amount of incentives to finish 1st the in the league.

And Butler has a little of that Gonzaga, or in MLB terms NYY, mystique. They're the champ until someone knocks them off. Interesting that Gonzaga's run could end this year too.

Agree with all of the above. The way I approached the Horizon was this - I assumed the league will get 2 bids from those three teams. But Valpo is the one of the three that basically has to win the conference tourney to get into the NCAAs moreso than the other two. If either of the other two wins the auto bid, the other will likely still get in over Valpo making Valpo the bubble team of that conference on the outside looking in. If Valpo wins the auto-bid for the conference, then Cleveland State will probably be on that bubble (most likely on the outside looking in), as I suspect Butler's name and schedule this year will get them the nod over Cleveland State.

Cheers,
Neil

It's still early but it's looking as though the increase to 68 teams is working. Looking at those teams there don't look to be any egregious examples of teams getting left out.

Conference tournaments still have to be played too. Sometimes, the unexpected happens...

(02-16-2011 02:53 PM)omnicarrier Wrote:  Considering the competition, maybe the Bearcats and Marquette aren't as in bad shape as it looks? Some of the worse resumes I can ever recall seeing.

Totally agree. This is the worst group of bubble teams that I can remember. Even among those not considered to be on the bubble, beyond maybe the projected 5th or 6th seeds, everyone is decidedly mediocre. I believe my own Illini are very very very average and they'd be on the outside looking in any other year, but assuming they don't completely tank, they'll back into the tourney simply because everyone else has even uglier resumes.

(02-16-2011 06:16 PM)Frank the Tank Wrote:  

(02-16-2011 02:53 PM)omnicarrier Wrote:  Considering the competition, maybe the Bearcats and Marquette aren't as in bad shape as it looks? Some of the worse resumes I can ever recall seeing.

Totally agree. This is the worst group of bubble teams that I can remember. Even among those not considered to be on the bubble, beyond maybe the projected 5th or 6th seeds, everyone is decidedly mediocre. I believe my own Illini are very very very average and they'd be on the outside looking in any other year, but assuming they don't completely tank, they'll back into the tourney simply because everyone else has even uglier resumes.

I think last years bubble was actually weaker... despite having more teams. A team like UTEP didn't get 1 victory over an RPI top 50 team last year and was in.

One of those berths is ours to lose and beating a Top 20 team was huge for us.

(02-16-2011 10:07 PM)bearcatmark Wrote:  

(02-16-2011 06:16 PM)Frank the Tank Wrote:  

(02-16-2011 02:53 PM)omnicarrier Wrote:  Considering the competition, maybe the Bearcats and Marquette aren't as in bad shape as it looks? Some of the worse resumes I can ever recall seeing.

Totally agree. This is the worst group of bubble teams that I can remember. Even among those not considered to be on the bubble, beyond maybe the projected 5th or 6th seeds, everyone is decidedly mediocre. I believe my own Illini are very very very average and they'd be on the outside looking in any other year, but assuming they don't completely tank, they'll back into the tourney simply because everyone else has even uglier resumes.

I think last years bubble was actually weaker... despite having more teams. A team like UTEP didn't get 1 victory over an RPI top 50 team last year and was in.

You mean OOC RPI Top 50 team, right? They had two Top 50 wins in conference, over UAB.

Only team I can recall off the top of my head ever getting in as an at-large with zero Top 50 wins was Air Force back in 2005-06.

Cheers,
Neil

IN
Pitt
Notre Dame
Georgetown
Villanova
Uconn
Louisville
Syracuse
Cincinnati

Bubble
WVU
St. Johns
Marquette

I think WVU and St. Johns get in so look for possibly 10 teams in the NCAA.