(02-17-2011 12:40 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  ... so it surprises me to see you say this, because i feel the same way about UCF, SMU, and UH.

UCF? Totally hemmed in by FSU, UF, Miami, and even USF. Where's the growth potential?

SMU? Squashed by Texas, Texas A/M, even TCU and Oklahoma. Sure, they were once a player but how will they ever regain that status? I don't see it.

UH? They've shown they can be big-time in basketball (when they have thrice-in-a-lifetime talents like Hayes, Drexler, and Olajuwon), but have never made any head-way in football in the teeth of Texas/Texas AM dominance.

I see little/no growth potential for any of them. That said, maybe with football attendance of around 40 - 45k, both ECU and UCF are already big enough?

Not an expert in Florida geography, so correct me if I'm wrong:
I believe UCF is about 2 hours drive from UFlorida, and Florida St. and Miami are farther, and that USF is closer.

2 hours is pretty close, but I UCF a pass simply because they are the (second?) largest school in the country. Their sheer size in a BCS conference would allow them to carve out a niche in their area. All those New Yorkers moving down to Florida needing a local school won't be so overwhelmed by the other Florida schools that they don't see UCF as an option.

As for SMU, you are looking at 3 hours to UT (more realistically closer to 4 as university educated people tend to live north of downtown Dallas) as the closest major school, a little longer to A&M, and about the same to OU, but anything north of the Red River might as well be in Canada. 3-4 hours is too far for a casual fan to really attend a game, and it's far enough that you don't have oppressive UT presence around DFW, especially due to the number of immigrants from up north. I think SMU has massive potential just like TCU. SMU and TCU are really just mirrors of each other, with similar growth potential and challenges to overcome. We just started 10 years ago and they are starting now.

Houston is closer to both UT and A&M, but it just seems to have a bit of presence right now. Maybe it's the number of alums they produce, or it's ties with the inner city, or the SWC history, I don't know. I think it's a clear 3rd choice, but I think it could grow.

I think based on what SMU has done so quickly since starting to really play football again (3 years ago) vs what Houston has done (their committment level hasn't changed) I think SMU is a much better choice.

All 3 options require building. If Big 12 schools are coming free soon, those are obviously better choices. If they aren't, SMU, UH, UCF are miles ahead of ECU, Memphis, Marshall, or anyone else out east.

(02-17-2011 03:14 PM)frogforever Wrote:  Not an expert in Florida geography, so correct me if I'm wrong:
I believe UCF is about 2 hours drive from UFlorida, and Florida St. and Miami are farther, and that USF is closer.

2 hours is pretty close, but I UCF a pass simply because they are the (second?) largest school in the country. Their sheer size in a BCS conference would allow them to carve out a niche in their area. All those New Yorkers moving down to Florida needing a local school won't be so overwhelmed by the other Florida schools that they don't see UCF as an option.

As for SMU, you are looking at 3 hours to UT (more realistically closer to 4 as university educated people tend to live north of downtown Dallas) as the closest major school, a little longer to A&M, and about the same to OU, but anything north of the Red River might as well be in Canada. 3-4 hours is too far for a casual fan to really attend a game, and it's far enough that you don't have oppressive UT presence around DFW, especially due to the number of immigrants from up north. I think SMU has massive potential just like TCU. SMU and TCU are really just mirrors of each other, with similar growth potential and challenges to overcome. We just started 10 years ago and they are starting now.

Houston is closer to both UT and A&M, but it just seems to have a bit of presence right now. Maybe it's the number of alums they produce, or it's ties with the inner city, or the SWC history, I don't know. I think it's a clear 3rd choice, but I think it could grow.

I'd actually argue the opposite. Those transplants are WAY more likely to be "T-shirt fans" that will only latch onto the largest bandwagons - and those bandwagons happen to be with the flagship schools with the largest fan bases (UT in Texas, UF in Florida, etc.). If I'm going to latch onto a local school as a transplant, why the heck wouldn't I be cheering for the massive power that's on national TV all of the time and all of your co-workers are talking about around the water cooler every Monday? I wouldn't be wasting my time with an upstart - I'd take the opportunity to become one of the "Joneses". Ever see Dan Shanoff's almost shameless bandwagon justification for becoming a Gator fan after having attended Northwestern (and was actually in school there for the miracle Rose Bowl run in 1995) since he married someone from Gainesville? It's WAY easier to support a power team if you're a transplant.

(02-17-2011 03:14 PM)frogforever Wrote:  

(02-17-2011 12:40 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  ... so it surprises me to see you say this, because i feel the same way about UCF, SMU, and UH.

UCF? Totally hemmed in by FSU, UF, Miami, and even USF. Where's the growth potential?

SMU? Squashed by Texas, Texas A/M, even TCU and Oklahoma. Sure, they were once a player but how will they ever regain that status? I don't see it.

UH? They've shown they can be big-time in basketball (when they have thrice-in-a-lifetime talents like Hayes, Drexler, and Olajuwon), but have never made any head-way in football in the teeth of Texas/Texas AM dominance.

I see little/no growth potential for any of them. That said, maybe with football attendance of around 40 - 45k, both ECU and UCF are already big enough?

Not an expert in Florida geography, so correct me if I'm wrong:
I believe UCF is about 2 hours drive from UFlorida, and Florida St. and Miami are farther, and that USF is closer.

2 hours is pretty close, but I UCF a pass simply because they are the (second?) largest school in the country. Their sheer size in a BCS conference would allow them to carve out a niche in their area. All those New Yorkers moving down to Florida needing a local school won't be so overwhelmed by the other Florida schools that they don't see UCF as an option.

As for SMU, you are looking at 3 hours to UT (more realistically closer to 4 as university educated people tend to live north of downtown Dallas) as the closest major school, a little longer to A&M, and about the same to OU, but anything north of the Red River might as well be in Canada. 3-4 hours is too far for a casual fan to really attend a game, and it's far enough that you don't have oppressive UT presence around DFW, especially due to the number of immigrants from up north. I think SMU has massive potential just like TCU. SMU and TCU are really just mirrors of each other, with similar growth potential and challenges to overcome. We just started 10 years ago and they are starting now.

Houston is closer to both UT and A&M, but it just seems to have a bit of presence right now. Maybe it's the number of alums they produce, or it's ties with the inner city, or the SWC history, I don't know. I think it's a clear 3rd choice, but I think it could grow.

I think based on what SMU has done so quickly since starting to really play football again (3 years ago) vs what Houston has done (their committment level hasn't changed) I think SMU is a much better choice.

All 3 options require building. If Big 12 schools are coming free soon, those are obviously better choices. If they aren't, SMU, UH, UCF are miles ahead of ECU, Memphis, Marshall, or anyone else out east.

Your geography is essentially correct (Gainesville is about 110 miles from Orlando, FSU and Miami are about 230 miles from Orlando (in opposite directions - many don't realize Miami and FSU are almost 500 miles apart!).

But nevertheless, it's not the miles that matter: Orlando (like Tampa) is already saturated with UF, FSU, and (to a lesser extent) Miami supporters. People graduate from those schools and head for the big cities, like Jax, Tampa, Orlando, and Miami.

I imagine Houston and Dallas are crawling with Texas and Texas A/M supporters as well ...

(02-17-2011 03:59 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  Your geography is essentially correct (Gainesville is about 110 miles from Orlando, FSU and Miami are about 230 miles from Orlando (in opposite directions - many don't realize Miami and FSU are almost 500 miles apart!).

But nevertheless, it's not the miles that matter: Orlando (like Tampa) is already saturated with UF, FSU, and (to a lesser extent) Miami supporters. People graduate from those schools and head for the big cities, like Jax, Tampa, Orlando, and Miami.

I imagine Houston and Dallas are crawling with Texas and Texas A/M supporters as well ...

I agree - I've spent more time in Orlando than any place other than Chicago and Champaign, and that's exactly my impression: it's a Gator and Noles town with a smattering of Canes supporters.

The headquarters of my firm is in Dallas (a couple of thousand people), and the office grad breakdown is clearly: (1) UT, (2) A&M, (3) OU, (4) everyone else.

(02-17-2011 03:51 PM)Frank the Tank Wrote:  

(02-17-2011 03:14 PM)frogforever Wrote:  Not an expert in Florida geography, so correct me if I'm wrong:
I believe UCF is about 2 hours drive from UFlorida, and Florida St. and Miami are farther, and that USF is closer.

2 hours is pretty close, but I UCF a pass simply because they are the (second?) largest school in the country. Their sheer size in a BCS conference would allow them to carve out a niche in their area. All those New Yorkers moving down to Florida needing a local school won't be so overwhelmed by the other Florida schools that they don't see UCF as an option.

As for SMU, you are looking at 3 hours to UT (more realistically closer to 4 as university educated people tend to live north of downtown Dallas) as the closest major school, a little longer to A&M, and about the same to OU, but anything north of the Red River might as well be in Canada. 3-4 hours is too far for a casual fan to really attend a game, and it's far enough that you don't have oppressive UT presence around DFW, especially due to the number of immigrants from up north. I think SMU has massive potential just like TCU. SMU and TCU are really just mirrors of each other, with similar growth potential and challenges to overcome. We just started 10 years ago and they are starting now.

Houston is closer to both UT and A&M, but it just seems to have a bit of presence right now. Maybe it's the number of alums they produce, or it's ties with the inner city, or the SWC history, I don't know. I think it's a clear 3rd choice, but I think it could grow.

I'd actually argue the opposite. Those transplants are WAY more likely to be "T-shirt fans" that will only latch onto the largest bandwagons - and those bandwagons happen to be with the flagship schools with the largest fan bases (UT in Texas, UF in Florida, etc.). If I'm going to latch onto a local school as a transplant, why the heck wouldn't I be cheering for the massive power that's on national TV all of the time and all of your co-workers are talking about around the water cooler every Monday? I wouldn't be wasting my time with an upstart - I'd take the opportunity to become one of the "Joneses". Ever see Dan Shanoff's almost shameless bandwagon justification for becoming a Gator fan after having attended Northwestern (and was actually in school there for the miracle Rose Bowl run in 1995) since he married someone from Gainesville? It's WAY easier to support a power team if you're a transplant.

Good analogy, Frank. As a former military member, and having moved a few times (courtesy of you guys), I never forgot my Orange, but for viewing pleasure, I often would/will pick a more local team to follow. As transplants to Houston, my kids have all chosen TAMU as their "local" school, though still Orange at heart.

The only thing different about today is that I can pick up my Orange on ESPN 3 every week, or on a network. Back then, you only got the local coverage of games or what was on ESPN (there was no ESPN2 or other serials). This may change the equation a little, but I agree with Frank that many transplants still like to go to a game and want to cheer someone on.

(02-17-2011 08:23 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  In the states where we have schools that are fertile states - Florida, Pennsylvania, and Ohio, the Big East team is overshadowed by more-powerful programs from other conferences (particularly in Ohio and Florida).

Actually NJ is up there as well. NJ produces a lot more players than people realize. Find me a national champion in the last X number of years without at least one Jersey born and bred player that's a big contributor if not one of the stars on the team and you'll find they are far and few in between.

People need to remember that UCF is not really the second largest school...they have 56,000 students but that number includes their 10 off campus sites where many of their nontraditional students go. UCF wants to believe they are big time with a big state flagship but they aren't.

1. UF
2. FSU
3. USF and UCF
4. FIU/FAU/FAMU and all other dreck

This is your tiers and it doesn't matter how many kids are in the UCF system...they will never be more than a 3rd tier regional school in FL.

(02-17-2011 04:03 PM)Frank the Tank Wrote:  

(02-17-2011 03:59 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  Your geography is essentially correct (Gainesville is about 110 miles from Orlando, FSU and Miami are about 230 miles from Orlando (in opposite directions - many don't realize Miami and FSU are almost 500 miles apart!).

But nevertheless, it's not the miles that matter: Orlando (like Tampa) is already saturated with UF, FSU, and (to a lesser extent) Miami supporters. People graduate from those schools and head for the big cities, like Jax, Tampa, Orlando, and Miami.

I imagine Houston and Dallas are crawling with Texas and Texas A/M supporters as well ...

I agree - I've spent more time in Orlando than any place other than Chicago and Champaign, and that's exactly my impression: it's a Gator and Noles town with a smattering of Canes supporters.

The headquarters of my firm is in Dallas (a couple of thousand people), and the office grad breakdown is clearly: (1) UT, (2) A&M, (3) OU, (4) everyone else.

All you have to do is read the Orlando Sentinel in the fall - they have more coverage of Gators games than UCF games, more coverage of Noles games than UCF games as well.

And you make a good point about Oklahoma: LOTS of OU grads head south to Dallas and Houston for work. Oklahoma has more support in Texas than any Texas schools save for Texas and A/M.

(02-17-2011 10:51 PM)TexanMark Wrote:  People need to remember that UCF is not really the second largest school...they have 56,000 students but that number includes their 10 off campus sites where many of their nontraditional students go. UCF wants to believe they are big time with a big state flagship but they aren't.

1. UF
2. FSU
3. USF and UCF
4. FIU/FAU/FAMU and all other dreck

This is your tiers and it doesn't matter how many kids are in the UCF system...they will never be more than a 3rd tier regional school in FL.

Yep, that's the pecking order, both athletically and academically, and in terms of overall "prestige". It's been that way for the 30 years i've been linked to the state, and it probably won't change in my lifetime.

USF has made significant strides in both departments since the 1980s, but it hasn't altered its place in the rankings, ditto for UCF.