Stats to Watch and the First Four
Posted on: January 28, 2011 12:13 pm
Score: 148

by Jerry Palm

In my 17 years of tracking the RPI and the selection process, there are a few things that I follow closely when trying to figure out which teams could get at-large bids, or at least should get consideration.

One of those is RPI top 100 wins. No team has received an at-large bid with fewer than three. It has taken at least four, if a team doesn't have a top 50 RPI win. When I do mid-season brackets, I'm not necessarily looking for three, but a team isn't likely getting on my board without at least two.

So, that eliminates from consideration -- at least for the moment -- Wichita State , which doesn't have any. Utah State wouldn't be on my board either if they weren't a conference leader. I shake my head when I see them in the polls. I also have UTEP off because it only has one top 100 win.

Another thing I look for is at least a .500 record vs teams in the top 200 of the RPI. Now, I've been through three NCAA mock selection meetings, and that stat has never come up, but only two teams in the last 17 years received at-large bids without meeting that standard. This is one that we may see slide some with three more NIT-quality teams in the field going forward.

Teams that are below .500 against the top 200 of the RPI as of this morning include Michigan State , UCLA , Cal , Marquette and Gonzaga . The Spartans are unique in that they have not played a game against teams ranked 101-200, so they are 7-8 vs the top 100 RPI teams, and also against the top 200.

Finally, you may have noticed that Dayton is right on the fence when it comes to the bracket. It's possible that the Flyers could be one of the last four teams in. If that happens, the committee has said that they are eligible to play in the First Four, even though those games are played on Dayton's home floor. I'm almost never skeptical when it comes to the committee, but I'll believe that one when I see it.

How it relates to UC:

vs RPI Top 25: 1-3
vs RPI Top 50: 2-3 (1-0 vs 25-50)
vs RPI Top 100: 5-3 (3-0 vs 50-100)
vs RPI Top 150: 9-3 (4-0 vs 100-150)
vs RPI Top 200: 10-3 (1-0 vs 150-200)

Either way, those numbers put us in good shape based on the criteria Palm has laid out.

Also found it interesting that Marquette has a losing record against the RPI top 200.

So the three losses vs. the Top 25 would be Syracuse, Nova, and Notre Dame? All away games against ranked teams who play extremely well at home- I can live with that.

I assume the 1 win against RPI Top 25 would be St. Johns in New York. That was a solid win.

(01-28-2011 12:54 PM)cinbinsportsfan Wrote:  So the three losses vs. the Top 25 would be Syracuse, Nova, and Notre Dame? All away games against ranked teams who play extremely well at home- I can live with that.

I assume the 1 win against RPI Top 25 would be St. Johns in New York. That was a solid win.

I used Joe Lunardi's RPI numbers available for ESPN Insider. Those numbers may differ slightly from Palm's. But according to Lunardi, Xavier is ranked 25th in the RPI while St. John's is ranked 27th.

(01-28-2011 12:57 PM)Overrated Wrote:  

(01-28-2011 12:54 PM)cinbinsportsfan Wrote:  So the three losses vs. the Top 25 would be Syracuse, Nova, and Notre Dame? All away games against ranked teams who play extremely well at home- I can live with that.

I assume the 1 win against RPI Top 25 would be St. Johns in New York. That was a solid win.

I used Joe Lunardi's RPI numbers available for ESPN Insider. Those numbers may differ slightly from Palm's. But according to Lunardi, Xavier is ranked 25th in the RPI while St. John's is ranked 27th.

Yeah X's rpi is very near #25. WVU has to be up there also.

Wow, X is all the way in the 20's? Wow. What are the RPI's of BE teams. I'm betting at least 11/12 of them have RPIs of at least 100, which bodes well for UC and makes it easier for them to find POTENTIAL Top 100 wins, at least.

Would like to see us hold serve at home and then get a win vs. Gtown or Marquette on the road. Should be able to beat DePaul and Providence on the road, but no road game is a gimmee.

vs. WVU- very winnable
@Pitt- I'm virutally certain this will be a loss.
@DePaul- W
vs. St. John's- tough one, but I think we shoot much better at home. W
vs. U of L- Winnable. But I'm +/- on this one
@Providence- Winnable. I think our defense will prevail and limit their points. Barring a poor shooting performance, I think we can win.
@Georgetown- Need a marquee road win. This is our best shot, IMO.
vs. UCONN- won't be easy. Probably an L.
@Marquette- Don't recall beating Marquette on the road for many years. L.
vs. Georgetown- Hoping for the sweep. W.

I'm thinking anywhere from 12-6 to 9-9 in the Big East. Based on reason. But we all know there is no reason to our late season collapses.

Probably can't get into the tourney with a .500 record in the Big East.
Probably will at 10-8 if we can manage another good road win, or beat a UCONN or UofL at home.

(01-28-2011 01:22 PM)cinbinsportsfan Wrote:  Wow, X is all the way in the 20's? Wow. What are the RPI's of BE teams. I'm betting at least 11/12 of them have RPIs of at least 100, which bodes well for UC and makes it easier for them to find POTENTIAL Top 100 wins, at least.

From last Sunday
Uconn #3
Pitt #5
Cuse #7
Gtown #8
Nova #9
ND #11
WVU #14
St. Johns #25

Pomeroy has 10 Big East teams in the top 20, with UC at #25

Sagarin has 9 in the top 30, with UC #18

14 BE teams with RPIs in top 98 (USF is 122, Depaul is 222)

FWIW WVU is 19

(01-28-2011 01:36 PM)SuperFlyBCat Wrote:  Pomeroy has 10 Big East teams in the top 20, with UC at #25

The BE has 10 teams in the top 28, but only five teams in the top 20.

http://kenpom.com/

(01-28-2011 01:53 PM)Bearcat04 Wrote:  

(01-28-2011 01:36 PM)SuperFlyBCat Wrote:  Pomeroy has 10 Big East teams in the top 20, with UC at #25

The BE has 10 teams in the top 28, but only five teams in the top 20.

http://kenpom.com/

That was typo, txs.

(01-28-2011 01:22 PM)cinbinsportsfan Wrote:  Wow, X is all the way in the 20's? Wow. What are the RPI's of BE teams. I'm betting at least 11/12 of them have RPIs of at least 100, which bodes well for UC and makes it easier for them to find POTENTIAL Top 100 wins, at least.

X is a conundrum wrapped in an enigma.

They are 2-5 against Top100 RPI Out of Conference.
They are 4-0 against Top100 RPI in the A10.

Eerily similar to last year. I wonder if the committee wants to tweak that RPI calculation again this year?

There is only one explanation. The A-10 is not very good. UC is a middle of the pack BEAST team and has 20 and 30 point wins over two A-10 elite teams. XU trumpets its home court winning streak in its conference but it has several non-conference losses at home. It also has had a good history of winning conference games on the road, but at places like GWU, LaSalle, URI, St. Bona and Fordham, 2000-2500 fans is a large hostile crowd. Wonder how the Mouseketeers would do playing at 'Cuse, Pitt, UofL, Marquette, UCONN, Villanova, Georgetown, et al.

Not sure why everyone thinks UConn is going to be an "L", It is the toughest of the home games but I feel better about that game than I do games at Providence and Marquette because of how much better a home team the Cats are. Anyway, UC will get in done and make the tournament this season.

Kemba Walker.