Despite Greinke trade, Reds like their chances
By Mark Sheldon / MLB.com | 12/20/10 3:50 PM EST
CINCINNATI -- The Reds weren't trying to acquire Zack Greinke from the Royals, but they probably weren't thrilled to see him land in the National League Central with the Brewers over the weekend.
Greinke, the 2009 American League Cy Young Award winner, is now the ace of the Brewers' rotation -- and it just made Cincinnati's efforts to repeat as division winners a little more difficult. The Reds should be the first to find out just how difficult, because they play the Brewers on Opening Day on March 31, 2011, at Great American Ball Park.
It'd be hard to imagine Greinke not getting that assignment.
Besides Greinke's surprise addition, the Brewers also traded for Shaun Marcum -- who was the Blue Jays' 2010 Opening Day starter -- during the Winter Meetings.
Reds general manager Walt Jocketty is on his family's holiday vacation this week -- a trip he often takes with close friend (and Brewers GM) Doug Melvin and his family. That didn't happen this year, but Melvin certainly didn't have to leave home to get the best souvenir around.
While the Brewers are clearly "all in" for 2011, the Reds are holding their cards close and not taking big risks. Boasting deep pitching to go with NL Most Valuable Player Joey Votto, Jay Bruce, Scott Rolen, Drew Stubbs and Brandon Phillips, they've maintained they don't need to gamble big in order to contend or win the NL Central.
Jocketty certainly had the talent and depth of prospects in place if he wanted to make a competitive bid for Greinke. However, Cincinnati is at the ceiling of its roughly $80 million budget, and the 27-year-old Greinke is owed $27 million over the next two seasons before he can hit free agency and really cash in. The club has tried to position itself to contend for the long term, and clearing the cupboard of prospects to get someone for only two years would have betrayed that philosophy.
To get Greinke, Milwaukee parted with young starting shortstop Alcides Escobar, promising center fielder Lorenzo Cain, former first-round Draft pick and right-handed pitcher Jeremy Jeffress and a top pitching prospect in right-hander Jake Odorizzi. To get Marcum, they parted with their top position prospect in second baseman Brett Lawrie.
So far this winter, Cincinnati has made moves only to retain its own players -- re-signing catcher Ramon Hernandez and infielder Miguel Cairo, signing Bruce to a six-year, $51 million contract extension and signing righty Bronson Arroyo to a three-year, $35 million extension.
"We can't sneak in this year. People will be looking for us," Jocketty said during the Winter Meetings. "The way it is right now, we like our club a lot. But we need to improve internally. We should. We have quality young players that should continue to get better. We'll have [Aroldis] Chapman all year [and Edinson] Volquez all year."
The Brewers join the Cardinals in having an elite starting pitcher at the top of the rotation. Actually, St. Louis has a pair in Chris Carpenter and Adam Wainwright. The Reds are banking that Volquez -- who missed most of the last two seasons recovering from Tommy John surgery -- can return to elite form in 2011. Volquez was a 17-game winner and All-Star in 2008.
A perennial 200-innings contributor, Arroyo was a 17-game winner last season. Young right-hander Johnny Cueto has continued to make improvement in each of his three seasons. The Reds actually have several young and talented contenders for the final two spots in Homer Bailey, Travis Wood, Mike Leake, Sam LeCure, Matt Maloney and if he's not back in the bullpen again, Chapman.
Milwaukee's starting pitching was ranked 15th out of 16 NL clubs with a 4.65 ERA. Throw in holdovers Yovani Gallardo and Randy Wolf, and the Brewers have a formidable starting four to match their imposing lineup. Between Ryan Braun, Prince Fielder, Corey Hart, Ricky Weeks and Casey McGehee, they have five players that had at least 20 homers and 80 RBIs last season.
The Reds were ranked No. 1 in the NL in all major offensive categories. Their rotation was ranked 10th with a 4.05 ERA.
When Greinke won the Cy Young Award in 2009 for a lackluster Royals crew, he was 16-8 with a 2.16 ERA. During an even more woeful 2010 in Kansas City, he was 10-14 with a 4.17 ERA.
Guess which results the Reds are hoping Greinke has in 2011?
Mark Sheldon is a reporter for MLB.com. Read his blog, Mark My Word and follow him on Twitter @m_sheldon. This story was not subject to the approval of Major League Baseball or its clubs.
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