http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/...e-901.html

Using the Abramowitz model which uses the final Gallup result for the generic House Ballot, the number of seats held by the Democratic Party and the party of the current President to project the number of House seats the Republicans will win with reasonable accuracy.

When applied to the midterm elections between 1950 and 2006, it has predicted the outcome with a standard error of 5 seats.

15 points difference equals a Republican House pickup of 67-75 seats

(11-01-2010 01:38 AM)WMD Owl Wrote:  Using the Abramowitz model which uses the final Gallup result for the generic House Ballot, the number of seats held by the Democratic Party and the party of the current President to project the number of House seats the Republicans will win with reasonable accuracy.

When applied to the midterm elections between 1950 and 2006, it has predicted the outcome with a standard error of 5 seats.

15 points difference equals a Republican House pickup of 67-75 seats

That is a total rejection of Obama and his agenda.

(11-01-2010 09:06 AM)SumOfAllFears Wrote:  

(11-01-2010 01:38 AM)WMD Owl Wrote:  Using the Abramowitz model which uses the final Gallup result for the generic House Ballot, the number of seats held by the Democratic Party and the party of the current President to project the number of House seats the Republicans will win with reasonable accuracy.

When applied to the midterm elections between 1950 and 2006, it has predicted the outcome with a standard error of 5 seats.

15 points difference equals a Republican House pickup of 67-75 seats

That is a total rejection of Obama and his agenda.

But NOT an endorsement of the Republican leadership's watered-down liberalism we've seen so much of since Dubya.

(11-01-2010 09:06 AM)SumOfAllFears Wrote:  

(11-01-2010 01:38 AM)WMD Owl Wrote:  Using the Abramowitz model which uses the final Gallup result for the generic House Ballot, the number of seats held by the Democratic Party and the party of the current President to project the number of House seats the Republicans will win with reasonable accuracy.

When applied to the midterm elections between 1950 and 2006, it has predicted the outcome with a standard error of 5 seats.

15 points difference equals a Republican House pickup of 67-75 seats

That is a total rejection of Obama and his agenda.

Not only that, but Obama just didn't cultivate an image of connecting with the common folk. If we are comparing Democrats, Bill Clinton largely succeeded in projecting this persona of a "sit down and have a burger and brewski with and talk about sports n' chicks" kind of guy. Obama, OTOH, has this air of Ivy League smugness about him that he never really shook. His picking out brackets on ESPN and preaching to the choir on Comedy Central didn't help his image of being a stiff liberal elite who lives in a bubble world.

(11-01-2010 09:35 AM)georgia_tech_swagger Wrote:  

(11-01-2010 09:06 AM)SumOfAllFears Wrote:  

(11-01-2010 01:38 AM)WMD Owl Wrote:  Using the Abramowitz model which uses the final Gallup result for the generic House Ballot, the number of seats held by the Democratic Party and the party of the current President to project the number of House seats the Republicans will win with reasonable accuracy.

When applied to the midterm elections between 1950 and 2006, it has predicted the outcome with a standard error of 5 seats.

15 points difference equals a Republican House pickup of 67-75 seats

That is a total rejection of Obama and his agenda.

But NOT an endorsement of the Republican leadership's watered-down liberalism we've seen so much of since Dubya.

+ 1

Once again, an election looms where it's more about anger toward the incumbants and/or creating some gridlock, as opposed to "I really like this political party and its message". Unfortunately.

However, here in Michigan, one of my friends worked under Governor candidate (and likely winner) Rick Snyder for several years in the private sector and vouches for him. So I'm definitely curious/hopefull about this guy.

(11-01-2010 09:35 AM)Motown Bronco Wrote:  

(11-01-2010 09:06 AM)SumOfAllFears Wrote:  

(11-01-2010 01:38 AM)WMD Owl Wrote:  Using the Abramowitz model which uses the final Gallup result for the generic House Ballot, the number of seats held by the Democratic Party and the party of the current President to project the number of House seats the Republicans will win with reasonable accuracy.

When applied to the midterm elections between 1950 and 2006, it has predicted the outcome with a standard error of 5 seats.

15 points difference equals a Republican House pickup of 67-75 seats

That is a total rejection of Obama and his agenda.

Not only that, but Obama just didn't cultivate an image of connecting with the common folk. If we are comparing Democrats, Bill Clinton largely succeeded in projecting this persona of a "sit down and have a burger and brewski with and talk about sports n' chicks" kind of guy. Obama, OTOH, has this air of Ivy League smugness about him that he never really shook. His picking out brackets on ESPN and preaching to the choir on Comedy Central didn't help his image of being a stiff liberal elite who lives in a bubble world.

It is more than Ivy League smugness, it's his air of entitlement.

(11-01-2010 09:35 AM)georgia_tech_swagger Wrote:  

(11-01-2010 09:06 AM)SumOfAllFears Wrote:  

(11-01-2010 01:38 AM)WMD Owl Wrote:  Using the Abramowitz model which uses the final Gallup result for the generic House Ballot, the number of seats held by the Democratic Party and the party of the current President to project the number of House seats the Republicans will win with reasonable accuracy.

When applied to the midterm elections between 1950 and 2006, it has predicted the outcome with a standard error of 5 seats.

15 points difference equals a Republican House pickup of 67-75 seats

That is a total rejection of Obama and his agenda.

But NOT an endorsement of the Republican leadership's watered-down liberalism we've seen so much of since Dubya.

As long as we keep swapping out the mentally handicapped for retarded people, we will keep getting the same crap.

(11-01-2010 09:35 AM)georgia_tech_swagger Wrote:  

(11-01-2010 09:06 AM)SumOfAllFears Wrote:  

(11-01-2010 01:38 AM)WMD Owl Wrote:  Using the Abramowitz model which uses the final Gallup result for the generic House Ballot, the number of seats held by the Democratic Party and the party of the current President to project the number of House seats the Republicans will win with reasonable accuracy.

When applied to the midterm elections between 1950 and 2006, it has predicted the outcome with a standard error of 5 seats.

15 points difference equals a Republican House pickup of 67-75 seats

That is a total rejection of Obama and his agenda.

But NOT an endorsement of the Republican leadership's watered-down liberalism we've seen so much of since Dubya.

+1 from me too.

I don't know if this will translate well to the candidates getting elected, but it's what the people are aiming for.

That's why I don't understand those that claim to be fiscal conservatives, being happy at just the fact that the GOP will be back in the majority. That's no guaranteed solution. Not by a long shot.

(11-01-2010 12:33 PM)DrTorch Wrote:  

(11-01-2010 09:35 AM)georgia_tech_swagger Wrote:  

(11-01-2010 09:06 AM)SumOfAllFears Wrote:  

(11-01-2010 01:38 AM)WMD Owl Wrote:  Using the Abramowitz model which uses the final Gallup result for the generic House Ballot, the number of seats held by the Democratic Party and the party of the current President to project the number of House seats the Republicans will win with reasonable accuracy.

When applied to the midterm elections between 1950 and 2006, it has predicted the outcome with a standard error of 5 seats.

15 points difference equals a Republican House pickup of 67-75 seats

That is a total rejection of Obama and his agenda.

But NOT an endorsement of the Republican leadership's watered-down liberalism we've seen so much of since Dubya.

+1 from me too.

I don't know if this will translate well to the candidates getting elected, but it's what the people are aiming for.

That's why I don't understand those that claim to be fiscal conservatives, being happy at just the fact that the GOP will be back in the majority. That's no guaranteed solution. Not by a long shot.

Amazingly Michael Steele made a good point last week. He said republicans were getting a "lease on leadership." Meaning that if they didn't govern as they said they would to get elected, they would be kicked out again. Every republican in there needs to keep that on their desk somewhere the next two years.

You are all so lucky. You see change on the horizon. Outside of Oberstar maybe losing up in northern MN, very little change seems on it's way to MN. We're probably even going to lose the Republican governorship.

Keith Ellison, Mark Dayton etc. Jeeze.

(11-01-2010 01:38 AM)WMD Owl Wrote:  Using the Abramowitz model which uses the final Gallup result for the generic House Ballot...

15 points difference equals a Republican House pickup of 67-75 seats

One fact to keep in mind is that the 55-40 spread found by Gallup is based on a 45% turnout model. Yet, the highest midterm turn-out in the last 30 years (1994) was actually just 41%.

Most "experts" tend to think that a higher turnout = better for the Democrats, and lower = better for GOP. I'm not sure about that, but that is the conventional wisdom. And if it's correct in this instance, that is a reason to think that the spread among the people who actually cast ballots may be even greater than 15 points.