(08-26-2010 11:02 PM)NIU32 Wrote: NIU 20 ISU 10 Spann 155 and a TD, Grady also gets a shot here and there and fires a 35 yd TD pass to Cox
Also, I didnt watch much of Iowa State last year so I wasnt too familar with their team. Here is a video of their season last yr and i must say its pretty well done. I will say that I do like their coach, kinda reminds me of good ole' Joe Novak in some ways.... SHould be a great game
Let me first say, that video was really well done.
Then let me move onto the Nebraska game.
Turnovers:
Nebraska 8
Iowa State 0
For the game. Nebraska turned it over EIGHT times. The final score of the game was 9-7 Iowa State. Five of Nebraska's turnovers were inside Iowa State's 5 yard line. If that's not the luckiest win ever, I don't know what is.
They also barely beat Minnesota (a team a lot of people believe we will beat) 14-13 in their bowl game.
Iowa State won 7 games last year, 3 of which were against North Dakota State, Kent State, and Army, all of which who I'm confident in saying NIU would handle.
Their other 4 wins were againt Baylor (without their QB), Nebraska, Colorado, and Minnesota.
In those 4 games, they scored a total of 64 points. That's 16 PPG.
The other side of that, of course, is they only gave up 40 points or 10 PPG.
Iowa State returns 4 defensive starters, and their best defensive player is suspended for the NIU game.
You get what I'm trying to say here.
Arnaud completed 58% of his passes last year with 14 TD/13 INT in 303 attempts.
By comparison, Harnish (who half of this board wants benched) completed 64% of his passes with 11 TD/6 INT in 223 pass attempts.
If NIU is as good as we all think they are, this is a VERY VERY winnable game. If we can run the ball and Harnish doesn't make any stupid mistakes, this is a game we will win. This game is a lot like Purdue, run the ball, stop the run, and lets go home happy.
Quote:AccuScore is forecasting a close game with Northern Illinois winning 51% of simulations, and Iowa State 49% of simulations. In close games, turnover margin is especially important. Northern Illinois commits fewer turnovers in 39% of simulations and they go on to win 64% when they take care of the ball. Iowa State wins 62% of the simulations in which they commit fewer turnovers. Chad Spann is averaging 110 rushing yards per sim. If he can have a great game with better than average rushing yards and at least a 1 rushing TD (40% chance) then he helps his team win 67%. Alexander Robinson is averaging 110 rushing yards per sim. If he can have a great game with better than average rushing yards and at least a 1 rushing TD (33% chance) then he helps his team win 62%.
Iowa State fan here, just wanted to point out some things. Did you know that for the Nebraska game 4 of those turnovers were inside the 5 yardline? Did you also know that we were without our starting QB and RB for that game?
Yes he clearly mentions that 5 turnovers were inside the 5 yard line (was it 4 or 5? either way, wow.)
I'm sure as an ISU fan that win was a big thrill. Winning at Nebraska is definitely something to be excited about. But the point he's trying to make here (and I have to agree) is that Nebraska flat out gave that game away.
(08-26-2010 11:02 PM)NIU32 Wrote: NIU 20 ISU 10 Spann 155 and a TD, Grady also gets a shot here and there and fires a 35 yd TD pass to Cox
Also, I didnt watch much of Iowa State last year so I wasnt too familar with their team. Here is a video of their season last yr and i must say its pretty well done. I will say that I do like their coach, kinda reminds me of good ole' Joe Novak in some ways.... SHould be a great game
Let me first say, that video was really well done.
Then let me move onto the Nebraska game.
Turnovers:
Nebraska 8
Iowa State 0
For the game. Nebraska turned it over EIGHT times. The final score of the game was 9-7 Iowa State. Five of Nebraska's turnovers were inside Iowa State's 5 yard line. If that's not the luckiest win ever, I don't know what is.
They also barely beat Minnesota (a team a lot of people believe we will beat) 14-13 in their bowl game.
Iowa State won 7 games last year, 3 of which were against North Dakota State, Kent State, and Army, all of which who I'm confident in saying NIU would handle.
Their other 4 wins were againt Baylor (without their QB), Nebraska, Colorado, and Minnesota.
In those 4 games, they scored a total of 64 points. That's 16 PPG.
The other side of that, of course, is they only gave up 40 points or 10 PPG.
Iowa State returns 4 defensive starters, and their best defensive player is suspended for the NIU game.
You get what I'm trying to say here.
Arnaud completed 58% of his passes last year with 14 TD/13 INT in 303 attempts.
By comparison, Harnish (who half of this board wants benched) completed 64% of his passes with 11 TD/6 INT in 223 pass attempts.
If NIU is as good as we all think they are, this is a VERY VERY winnable game. If we can run the ball and Harnish doesn't make any stupid mistakes, this is a game we will win. This game is a lot like Purdue, run the ball, stop the run, and lets go home happy.
Quote:AccuScore is forecasting a close game with Northern Illinois winning 51% of simulations, and Iowa State 49% of simulations. In close games, turnover margin is especially important. Northern Illinois commits fewer turnovers in 39% of simulations and they go on to win 64% when they take care of the ball. Iowa State wins 62% of the simulations in which they commit fewer turnovers. Chad Spann is averaging 110 rushing yards per sim. If he can have a great game with better than average rushing yards and at least a 1 rushing TD (40% chance) then he helps his team win 67%. Alexander Robinson is averaging 110 rushing yards per sim. If he can have a great game with better than average rushing yards and at least a 1 rushing TD (33% chance) then he helps his team win 62%.
Iowa State fan here, just wanted to point out some things. Did you know that for the Nebraska game 4 of those turnovers were inside the 5 yardline? Did you also know that we were without our starting QB and RB for that game?
Yes he clearly mentions that 5 turnovers were inside the 5 yard line (was it 4 or 5? either way, wow.)
I'm sure as an ISU fan that win was a big thrill. Winning at Nebraska is definitely something to be excited about. But the point he's trying to make here (and I have to agree) is that Nebraska flat out gave that game away.
Haha, wow, my reading skills apparently aren't very good today. And yes it was four times they turned it over inside the 5 yard line.
And the point I was trying to make it is that game probably looks a lot different if we had our starting QB and RB. We certainly put up more than 9 points.
Anyway, good luck next Thursday. Should be a good one.
I definatley did not know that Iowa State was without their QB and RB, thanks for that.
8 turnovers and 4-5 inside the 5 yard line is still epic though. I'm not trying to rain on your parade. If NIU won at Nebraska, I wouldn't care if they had 10 turnovers. I was just trying to make the point that ISU was a defensive team who lost a ton of starters off that defense and your best player is suspended.
