I am talking more in the sense of future than the current on the field performance. By leaving the BE, Miami opened the door to USF which is a much larger public university with far greater resources to bring to the game.

It also allowed UCF to move up from the MAC to CUSA. If the BE loses teams to the Big 10, there is a good chance that UCF will move to the BE with USF. Now Miami is facing the prospect of competing against 4 public universities all in BCS conferences.

It doesn't stop there. If UCF moves to the BE, CUSA will most likely backfill with either FAU or FIU both larger public schools in the immediate area of Miami. A move from the Sunbelt to CUSA will help both of those schools from a recruiting standpoint.

I am not suggesting that Miami will just fall of the map, but if USF and UCF start gaining traction it will erode Miami's position. The distance between Tallahassee and Miami and between Gainesville and Miami are significant distances (7 1/2 hrs and 5 1/2 hours) but the distances between Miami and Tampa and Orlando are just 4 1/2 and 4 hours away respectively.

For a kid who wants to play locally and is to the north or west of Coral Gables, USF and UCF are almost as local as Miami is. They are an easy days drive for family to come and see them. A kids family might not want to invest an entire day to drive to Tallahassee to see them play, but the shorter distance to Orlando or Tampa is more appealing.

Some of the kids who would be backups at Miami could opt to be stars at FIU and/or FAU. Depth has a lot to do with a teams overall success, and all this could make Miami a less deep team. Other than USC, can anyone name me a private school that has great success in FB in the last 5-7 years? Miami's last NC in might be the last they see. There is definitely a power shift in college athletics away from smaller private schools and towards larger public universities. Miami's move to the ACC might have opened the door and hastened their own decline.

I've often thought of this as well. In addition to all of that they gave up their connections to the northeast where a substantial if not most of their students and alumni are from. BC only gets them in Boston. Syracuse, Rutgers, Pitt, WVU and even Temple being on the schedule got them in the rest of the northeast. UConn would've bolstered that as well.

In addition to the fact that FL's population center is between Tampa and Orlando. 8 of the 19 million people live in this corridor. Miami because of resources and FSU because of distance from population base are about to become obsolete in the next 20-25 years.

(04-28-2010 01:10 AM)swagsurfer11 Wrote:  In addition to the fact that FL's population center is between Tampa and Orlando. 8 of the 19 million people live in this corridor. Miami because of resources and FSU because of distance from population base are about to become obsolete in the next 20-25 years.

This something that so few people who don't live down here don't understand, if the Big East controlled the Orlando and Tampa markets they would lock up this entire corridor, Lakeland may be a stretch, but it is not unthinkable to suggest that a strong UCF-USF rivalry could turn the heart of Florida into Big East country...

(04-28-2010 01:17 AM)UCF-ENG Wrote:  

(04-28-2010 01:10 AM)swagsurfer11 Wrote:  In addition to the fact that FL's population center is between Tampa and Orlando. 8 of the 19 million people live in this corridor. Miami because of resources and FSU because of distance from population base are about to become obsolete in the next 20-25 years.

This something that so few people who don't live down here don't understand, if the Big East controlled the Orlando and Tampa markets they would lock up this entire corridor, Lakeland may be a stretch, but it is not unthinkable to suggest that a strong UCF-USF rivalry could turn the heart of Florida into Big East country...

I don't think FSU suffers from that problem. UF doesn't so why would FSU the clear #2 in the state?

I don't think USF and UCF control their media markets and I don't think they ever will. I think in time they could become the #1 team in market but they'd still be very closely trailed by UF and/or FSU. Would it make the Big East just as strong if not stronger than the ACC in the Florida market? Absolutely. And long term we would erode some of UF's control over the state.

Miami screwed up because they sold lots of tickets to retired yankees who would rather see Pitt, Rutgers or Syracuse than Carolina & Duke.

(04-28-2010 01:17 AM)UCF-ENG Wrote:  

(04-28-2010 01:10 AM)swagsurfer11 Wrote:  In addition to the fact that FL's population center is between Tampa and Orlando. 8 of the 19 million people live in this corridor. Miami because of resources and FSU because of distance from population base are about to become obsolete in the next 20-25 years.

This something that so few people who don't live down here don't understand, if the Big East controlled the Orlando and Tampa markets they would lock up this entire corridor, Lakeland may be a stretch, but it is not unthinkable to suggest that a strong UCF-USF rivalry could turn the heart of Florida into Big East country...

Sorry but you are wrong. It will be partially BE country but first and formost it will stay gator country. Out side of Tally being FSU country the entire state of fla is first and formost gator land. Would the BE have a bigger hand in the corridor?? yes. But Gators will have most fans there for a very long time.

(04-28-2010 01:33 AM)brista21 Wrote:  

(04-28-2010 01:17 AM)UCF-ENG Wrote:  

(04-28-2010 01:10 AM)swagsurfer11 Wrote:  In addition to the fact that FL's population center is between Tampa and Orlando. 8 of the 19 million people live in this corridor. Miami because of resources and FSU because of distance from population base are about to become obsolete in the next 20-25 years.

This something that so few people who don't live down here don't understand, if the Big East controlled the Orlando and Tampa markets they would lock up this entire corridor, Lakeland may be a stretch, but it is not unthinkable to suggest that a strong UCF-USF rivalry could turn the heart of Florida into Big East country...

I don't think FSU suffers from that problem. UF doesn't so why would FSU the clear #2 in the state?

I don't think USF and UCF control their media markets and I don't think they ever will. I think in time they could become the #1 team in market but they'd still be very closely trailed by UF and/or FSU. Would it make the Big East just as strong if not stronger than the ACC in the Florida market? Absolutely. And long term we would erode some of UF's control over the state.

FSU is so isolated and very difficult to get to for the majority of the state. A kid from Miami to go to FSU would pass FAU,UCF, and UF on the drive to school. I remember when I was in school, I wanted to get away from home, but I still wanted to be close enough where I could go home on the weekends. I think it's 7.5 hours from Miami to Tallahassee. Tampa to Tallahassee is 4.5 hours and you pass USF and UF, Orlando to Tallahassee is 4 hours and you pass UCF and UF. What I am trying to say is that if you are a kid from south or central FL, you have to really want to go to FSU. Most go because they want to be a part of a relavent national school. It's a great feeling with your school is on national tv and you live in the city. With kids having the same option with USF or maybe UCF, you will see FSU's enrollment and status in the state decrease.

(04-28-2010 07:16 AM)swagsurfer11 Wrote:  

(04-28-2010 01:33 AM)brista21 Wrote:  

(04-28-2010 01:17 AM)UCF-ENG Wrote:  

(04-28-2010 01:10 AM)swagsurfer11 Wrote:  In addition to the fact that FL's population center is between Tampa and Orlando. 8 of the 19 million people live in this corridor. Miami because of resources and FSU because of distance from population base are about to become obsolete in the next 20-25 years.

This something that so few people who don't live down here don't understand, if the Big East controlled the Orlando and Tampa markets they would lock up this entire corridor, Lakeland may be a stretch, but it is not unthinkable to suggest that a strong UCF-USF rivalry could turn the heart of Florida into Big East country...

I don't think FSU suffers from that problem. UF doesn't so why would FSU the clear #2 in the state?

I don't think USF and UCF control their media markets and I don't think they ever will. I think in time they could become the #1 team in market but they'd still be very closely trailed by UF and/or FSU. Would it make the Big East just as strong if not stronger than the ACC in the Florida market? Absolutely. And long term we would erode some of UF's control over the state.

FSU is so isolated and very difficult to get to for the majority of the state. A kid from Miami to go to FSU would pass FAU,UCF, and UF on the drive to school. I remember when I was in school, I wanted to get away from home, but I still wanted to be close enough where I could go home on the weekends. I think it's 7.5 hours from Miami to Tallahassee. Tampa to Tallahassee is 4.5 hours and you pass USF and UF, Orlando to Tallahassee is 4 hours and you pass UCF and UF. What I am trying to say is that if you are a kid from south or central FL, you have to really want to go to FSU. Most go because they want to be a part of a relavent national school. It's a great feeling with your school is on national tv and you live in the city. With kids having the same option with USF or maybe UCF, you will see FSU's enrollment and status in the state decrease.

I don't know much about the typical FL recruit, but I would imagine that aside from the kids who see college as nothing but a means to the NFL, the majority of the kids will still want to go to whatever school has the best combination of athletic success and academic success. I know people knock FSU academically (and their student athlete practices are a disgrace), but as long as FSU has stronger academics than UCF, USF, FIU and FAU, it will not see a dropoff in enrollment. Extend this out to any college bound FL student, I still think FSU will still beat USF, UCF, etc provided it can stay ahead of the other schools academically. As long as the students keep coming, the alumni network will continue to grow.

Now if USF and UCF can raise their academics and start to beat FSU in academics, then I think these schools will overtake FSU. I believe that academics and athletics go hand in hand in making your university attractive to student athletes and regular students. Both are needed to make a strong athletic program.

(04-28-2010 06:38 AM)goodknightfl Wrote:  

(04-28-2010 01:17 AM)UCF-ENG Wrote:  

(04-28-2010 01:10 AM)swagsurfer11 Wrote:  In addition to the fact that FL's population center is between Tampa and Orlando. 8 of the 19 million people live in this corridor. Miami because of resources and FSU because of distance from population base are about to become obsolete in the next 20-25 years.

This something that so few people who don't live down here don't understand, if the Big East controlled the Orlando and Tampa markets they would lock up this entire corridor, Lakeland may be a stretch, but it is not unthinkable to suggest that a strong UCF-USF rivalry could turn the heart of Florida into Big East country...

Sorry but you are wrong. It will be partially BE country but first and formost it will stay gator country. Out side of Tally being FSU country the entire state of fla is first and formost gator land. Would the BE have a bigger hand in the corridor?? yes. But Gators will have most fans there for a very long time.

Well we will have to agree to disagree then... I think brista was pretty close with this quote below, inside of ten years UCF and USF would be number 1 in their respective markets. You start looking out 25-50 years, and I see no reason why UCF and USF can't "own" the central Florida markets. You guys give gator fans WAY too much credit, more than half of them are bandwagon fans, and UF is bound to hit a FSU type slump eventually. Besides that, there will come a point where there are more living alumni from UCF than there are from UF... I'm not saying UCF or USF will ever be bigger programs than UF, I'm just saying that if those two programs remain in a major conference for any extended period of time they will eventually own their home markets, why is that so hard for people to accept.

(04-28-2010 01:33 AM)brista21 Wrote:  I don't think USF and UCF control their media markets and I don't think they ever will. I think in time they could become the #1 team in market but they'd still be very closely trailed by UF and/or FSU. Would it make the Big East just as strong if not stronger than the ACC in the Florida market? Absolutely. And long term we would erode some of UF's control over the state.

Miami made a strategic mistake by building a 7,000 seat basketball arena that is obsolete for the ACC and settling for a half-empty Dolphins Stadium instead of leveraging community assets for a stadium of its own.

(04-28-2010 12:37 AM)Shannon Panther Wrote:  Some of the kids who would be backups at Miami could opt to be stars at FIU and/or FAU. Depth has a lot to do with a teams overall success, and all this could make Miami a less deep team. Other than USC, can anyone name me a private school that has great success in FB in the last 5-7 years? Miami's last NC in might be the last they see. There is definitely a power shift in college athletics away from smaller private schools and towards larger public universities. Miami's move to the ACC might have opened the door and hastened their own decline.

I actually look at their move in the opposite way. Instead of staying in the Big East which had revenue problems even then, Miami left for a conference where they would be guaranteed an equal split even if they fell off the map competitively. Basically, they traded their athletic strength then for long term security. I don't think they regret that decision at all.

(04-28-2010 10:15 AM)nuftw Wrote:  

(04-28-2010 12:37 AM)Shannon Panther Wrote:  Some of the kids who would be backups at Miami could opt to be stars at FIU and/or FAU. Depth has a lot to do with a teams overall success, and all this could make Miami a less deep team. Other than USC, can anyone name me a private school that has great success in FB in the last 5-7 years? Miami's last NC in might be the last they see. There is definitely a power shift in college athletics away from smaller private schools and towards larger public universities. Miami's move to the ACC might have opened the door and hastened their own decline.

I actually look at their move in the opposite way. Instead of staying in the Big East which had revenue problems even then, Miami left for a conference where they would be guaranteed an equal split even if they fell off the map competitively. Basically, they traded their athletic strength then for long term security. I don't think they regret that decision at all.

Exactly. Administrators and athletics directors crave guaranteed money that isn't dependent upon wins and losses, which is what the ACC provides. If Miami had experienced its downturn under the Big East revenue distribution model, its revenue would've dropped precipitously. Also, Miami president Donna Shalala (who was in President Clinton's cabinet) wanted to position Miami academically and the ACC is right alongside the Big Ten as the top academic conference. I think that people are really underplaying the academic attractiveness of the ACC - it's a big reason why I think it's a whole lot safer than people give it credit for. These university presidents all want to associate themselves with Duke, UNC and UVA regardless of sports.

Since I do not live in Florida, it is hard for me to tell someone who does who has more fans, or who can own a market in 20 year. But I do know that about six or seven years ago, Miami was the clear number one in the state on the field, FSU was two, and UF was a distant third. So I can't see how Florida has such a stranglehold on the state, other than FSU and Miami basically appearing over the last 30 years.

That said, the fact that FSU and Miami really only became national powers about 30 years ago, and are one of only a handful of teams that joined the big boy club in that time, and stayed, it does create hope for the future of USF, and UCF.


On the field, I think Miami's troubles came from three fronts.

1) The Big East that Miami left was really, really bad. The teams have improved a lot since then, but Miami and Va. Tech really owned the conference, and there were a lot of cupcakes. When they left along with VT, and BC, they joined FSU, Clemson, and Maryland (who was riding high at the time) who were also used to playing a lot of cupcakes. I just don’t think any of those teams were prepared for the serious upswing in competition they would face.

2) After taking the first scenario into account, a newly BCS South Florida, combined with new coaches at Louisville, West Virginia, and Pittsburgh who started heavily recruiting Miami’s territory, and getting some good talent to boot, eroded some of the depth that Miami used to have. They still had their top shelf talent, but those backups that used to give them invaluable depth and make them impervious to injuries, suspensions, etc, were now playing at other schools

3) Bobby Petrino. Call me a homer, but I swear I remember Miami having a vaunted defense that no one could master. Then in 2004, in a losing effort, Petrino’s Conference USA Louisville Cardinals sliced up Miami’s defense, and were up by 3 touchdowns, and would have beaten them in Miami, if not for the team celebrating and stopping playing as they thought the game was over. Then there was that damn dropped interception by Kerry Rhodes. In any event, after that game, Miami lost 3 of their next four or five, because all of a sudden teams that could never score on them had seen a blueprint on how to shred their defense. Once that happened, it exposed the offense, and started their downward fall

That’s my story, and I’m sticking to it.

(04-28-2010 10:41 AM)Frank the Tank Wrote:  

(04-28-2010 10:15 AM)nuftw Wrote:  

(04-28-2010 12:37 AM)Shannon Panther Wrote:  Some of the kids who would be backups at Miami could opt to be stars at FIU and/or FAU. Depth has a lot to do with a teams overall success, and all this could make Miami a less deep team. Other than USC, can anyone name me a private school that has great success in FB in the last 5-7 years? Miami's last NC in might be the last they see. There is definitely a power shift in college athletics away from smaller private schools and towards larger public universities. Miami's move to the ACC might have opened the door and hastened their own decline.

I actually look at their move in the opposite way. Instead of staying in the Big East which had revenue problems even then, Miami left for a conference where they would be guaranteed an equal split even if they fell off the map competitively. Basically, they traded their athletic strength then for long term security. I don't think they regret that decision at all.

Exactly. Administrators and athletics directors crave guaranteed money that isn't dependent upon wins and losses, which is what the ACC provides. If Miami had experienced its downturn under the Big East revenue distribution model, its revenue would've dropped precipitously. Also, Miami president Donna Shalala (who was in President Clinton's cabinet) wanted to position Miami academically and the ACC is right alongside the Big Ten as the top academic conference. I think that people are really underplaying the academic attractiveness of the ACC - it's a big reason why I think it's a whole lot safer than people give it credit for. These university presidents all want to associate themselves with Duke, UNC and UVA regardless of sports.

Just as an aside re: Donna Shalala being in President Clinton's cabinet.
Erskine Bowles served as Clinton's Chief of Staff for several years. After an unsucessful run at the US Senate, Erskine was named the President of the University of North Carolina (not Chancellor of the school in Chapel Hill but President of the UNC system....16 campuses, which includes Carolina, NC State, ECU, etc.) where he served in that capacity for 5 years. He recently resigned to return to Washington to work in the current administration.
Bowles who is the son of "Skipper" Bowles, a former gubernatorial candidate in North Carolina and the man who raised all of the private funding to build the Dean E. Smith Center (Dean Dome).
Sometimes conference affiliations are started in places one would never suspect, like Miami to the ACC.

If Stefan Lefors doesn't get a concussion in the 3rd quarter, Louisville wins that game going away.

But, yeah - I basically agree. It seems that after Louisville torched their defense in that game, they just haven't been the same.

Miami's troubles are a result of Coker, Larry. That's it.

(04-28-2010 11:01 AM)JunkYardCard Wrote:  If Stefan Lefors doesn't get a concussion in the 3rd quarter, Louisville wins that game going away.

But, yeah - I basically agree. It seems that after Louisville torched their defense in that game, they just haven't been the same.

They were still good to go through 2005. They really didn't go into the tank until the 2005 Peach Bowl vs. LSU. That's when the train really went off the tracks.

One other thing on this topic. I do think Miami provides a good cautionary tale because they basically traded winning games for a bigger pay check. I think Syracuse, Rutgers and Pitt could learn from that.

VT also provides an example even though they are winning. Those ACC champ VT squads may have been playing in national championship games had they been going undefeated in a weaker Big East.

Staying in a league because the competition is weaker isn't exactly a strong selling point for said league. Anyway VT is happier than anyone with how the ACC expansion took place. That's where they wanted to be since the '50s.