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Pete Thamel's NCCA Tournament Picks (NY Times)
I really like the way this guy thinks...  The New York Times Wrote:Pete Thamel’s N.C.A.A. Tournament Picks
By PETE THAMEL
March 14, 2010, 11:29 pm
The Times’ Pete Thamel choose the teams he expects to advance to the Final Four and championship games in Indianapolis after a game-by-game analysis of round one and the regions in this year’s N.C.A.A. tournament.
EAST: This is the second-most-difficult region, but whether it or the Midwest is the toughest is a close call. Kentucky has seemingly found numerous teams to test its inexperience, as No. 8 Texas, No. 4 Wisconsin and No. 2 West Virginia are all matchup nightmares.
WEST VIRGINIA FLEXES MUSCLES
No. 1 Kentucky vs. No. 16 East Tennessee Enjoy Kentucky’s dunkfest and the subsequent fretting about the second round.
No. 8 Texas vs. No. 9 Wake Forest Two teams going nowhere fast, one has to win. Take Texas.
No. 5 Temple vs. No. 12 Cornell The Big Red finally has a winnable game after drawing Stanford and Missouri. Take Cornell because of experience and shooting.
No. 4 Wisconsin vs. No. 13 Wofford The Badgers have a unique style and great coaching, and could be dangerous.
No. 6 Marquette vs. No. 11 Washington Good draw for the Golden Eagles, whose biggest obstacle is the trip to San Jose.
No. 3 New Mexico vs. No. 14 Montana The Lobos are the surprise team this year. No surprises here; they roll.
No. 7 Clemson vs. No. 10 Missouri This game will be a reminder of how bad the A.C.C. was as a conference.
No. 2 West Virginia vs. No. 15 Morgan State Morgan is the best of the No. 15s, but West Virginia may be the best team, period.
UPSET SPECIAL:
This is probably the easiest upset to pick in the tournament. Clemson has been unspectacular all year and lost its last two games. Missouri’s style is as difficult as any in the country to prepare for. Look for Missouri guards Zaire Taylor and Kim English to control the pace.
SOUTH: Let the N.C.A.A. conspiracy theorists have a field day. Duke again appears to be overseeded, although it is tough to pick an early exit for the Blue Devils considering how weak the rest of their bracket is. Baylor is tantalizing here, but its coaching and big-game experience remain questions.
WILL DUKE SHOW IT’S WORTHY?
No. 1 Duke vs. No. 16 Winthrop or Arkansas-Pine Bluff Either way, Duke will roll here. Being overseeded comes into play later.
No. 8 California vs. No. 9 Louisville This is an easy “upset” as Louisville has more talent and depth.
No. 5 Texas A&M vs. No. 12 Utah State It’s hard to pull the trigger on Utah State because the Aggies have not played anyone.
No. 4 Purdue vs. No. 13 Siena Didn’t like the Saints too much this year, but this draw makes them too hard not to pick.
No. 6 Notre Dame vs. No. 11 Old Dominion Notre Dame will meet a team that plays its new style. Monarchs win a close one.
No. 3 Baylor vs. No. 14 Sam Houston The Bears will roll early on here. They’re one of the country’s most surprising teams.
No. 7 Richmond vs. No. 10 St. Mary’s Richmond’s style is so hard to prepare for. Cross-country trip hurts St. Mary’s, too.
No. 2 Villanova vs. No. 15 Robert Morris This game will be closer than expected, but ’Nova’s guards are too good.
UPSET SPECIAL:
This will be a popular pick. Siena and its star, Edwin Ubiles, have won games in the past two N.C.A.A. tournaments, and Purdue folded in the Big Ten tournament. The Saints bring experience, savvy and good coaching. But they are not as talented as last year’s team, which beat Ohio State.
MIDWEST: Bill Self will get Kansas ready for this gantlet, which should include a scary game against Northern Iowa in the second round and a brutal Round of 16 matchup against No. 4 Maryland or No. 5 Michigan State. Raise your hand if you want to see Gary Williams or Tom Izzo in the N.C.A.A. tournament.
KANSAS FACES TOUGH ROAD
No. 1 Kansas vs. No 16 Lehigh Bill Self has a tortured experience with the Patriot League, after a loss to Bucknell.
No. 8 U.N.L.V. vs. No. 9 Northern Iowa Expect defensive-minded Northern Iowa to win an ugly game, keeping the score low.
No. 5 Michigan State vs. No. 12 New Mexico State Tom Izzo is probably miffed that his team is seeded this low.
No. 4 Maryland vs. No. 13 Houston The Cougars are hot, but Gary Williams has the game’s best player, Greivis Vasquez.
No. 6 Tennessee vs. No. 11 San Diego State The Vols are talented enough for a deep run but are inconsistent and lack depth.
No. 3 Georgetown vs. No. 14 Ohio A great early draw for the Hoyas against Ohio, which won as the No. 9 seed in the MAC.
No. 7 Oklahoma State vs. No. 10 Georgia Tech As tough a pick as there is in the field. Go with the Yellow Jackets.
No. 2 Ohio State vs. No. 15 U.C.-Santa Barbara Ohio State’s Evan Turner, the best player in the country, is playing his best.
UPSET SPECIAL:
San Diego State, seeded 11th, is hot, having won the Mountain West tournament. Tennessee is cold, after being blown away by Kentucky. It’s a smart gamble for a bracket, because neither will get by Georgetown in the second round. The Aztecs are led by the veteran coach Steve Fisher.
WEST: Buffalo isn’t a bad place for Syracuse to land. The Orange knew it would be placed outside the East because the Carrier Dome is hosting the East Regional. If Syracuse reaches the Round of 16, expect a funky matchup with No. 4 Vanderbilt; No. 5 Butler is vulnerable.
SYRACUSE SHOULD ROLL
No. 1 Syracuse vs. No. 16 Vermont This matchup calls to mind the great Vermont upset from 2005. No chance this time.
No. 8 Gonzaga vs. No. 9 Florida State Florida State is more athletic and tougher. Gonzaga has been tough to trust in March.
No. 5 Butler vs. No. 12 UTEP The Miners have B.C.S.-level talent in Randy Culpepper and Derrick Caracter.
No. 4 Vanderbilt vs. No. 13 Murray State Very tempting to pick the go-go Racers, but expect Vandy to hold on.
No. 6 Xavier vs. No. 11 Minnesota Hard to distinguish which of these teams is in a non-B.C.S. league. Look for X to roll.
No. 3 Pittsburgh vs. No. 14 Oakland The Panthers are a tough read. No problems here, though.
No. 7 B.Y.U. vs. No. 10 Florida Why did Florida make the tournament? It can answer while packing its bags after this game.
No. 2 Kansas State vs. No. 15 North Texas The Wildcats should have no problem, but lack of big-game experience could hurt.
UPSET SPECIAL:
No. 5 Butler has the nation’s longest winning streak. No. 12 UTEP lost its conference title game and barely sneaked into the field. But the Miners have more talent than any team Butler has seen in months. The Bulldogs struggled against major-conference teams like Georgetown, Minnesota and Clemson.
NATIONAL SEMIFINALS:
Look for the Big East, the best league all year, to get Syracuse, West Virginia and Villanova to Indianapolis. Kansas, the country’s best team, will join them.
CHAMPIONSHIP GAME:
West Virginia’s long and tricky 1-3-1 zone will stymie Kansas on Monday night. The trophy is hoisted to “Take Me Home, Country Roads.”
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Pete Thamel's NCCA Tournament Picks (NY Times)
