http://mattsarzsports.blogspot.com/2010/03/my-65.html

Mine with seeding.

Here's mine as of this AM:

1. Kansas, Kentucky, Duke, West Virginia
2. Syracuse, Kansas State, Georgetown, Baylor
3. Temple, New Mexico, Butler, Villanova
4. Tennessee, Texas A&M, Pittsburgh, Purdue
5. Northern Iowa, Xavier, San Diego State, California
6. Wisconsin, Richmond, Maryland, Vanderbilt
7. Ohio State, BYU, Old Dominion, Siena
8. Michigan State, Utah State, Oklahoma State, Texas
9. Georgia Tech, Clemson, UTEP, St. Mary's
10. Gonzaga, Louisville, Wake Forest, Florida State
11. Washington, UNLV, Missouri, Cornell
12. Notre Dame, Marquette, Oakland, New Mexico State
13. Murray State, Virginia Tech, Minnesota, Wofford
14. Sam Houston State, UCSB, Montana, Ohio
15. Morgan State, North Texas, Houston, Vermont
16. ETSU, Robert Morris, Lehigh, Winthrop, Ark-PB

If Mississippi State and Minnesota both win today, then Wake Forest gets bumped out by MSU. If MSU wins but Minnesota loses, MSU takes Minnesota's spot. If they both lose, Minnesota gets the last spot over: Florida, Mississippi State, William & Mary, Memphis, Wichita State, Rhode Island, Dayton, UAB

Seedings are based purely on RPI.

(03-14-2010 09:01 AM)wvucrazed Wrote:  Seedings are based purely on RPI.

Not criticizing since you had a particular method to stick with, but I think we just saw the flaw of the RPI. I'm willing to bet that no one considers Ohio St., who shared in the Big Ten championship and is a top Ten team, a seven seed. Agreed? Same with Butler and Northern Iowa.

I would say that RPI is more accurate and useful at the bottom of the seeding than at the middle and top. Anything after the bottom 13 teams (14-16 seeds) RPI goes out the window.

Particularly as there are teams like Wichita St. and Kent St. in the 40s and Rhode Island in the 30s who are completely off the board.

(03-14-2010 09:08 AM)mattsarz Wrote:  

(03-14-2010 09:01 AM)wvucrazed Wrote:  Seedings are based purely on RPI.

Not criticizing since you had a particular method to stick with, but I think we just saw the flaw of the RPI. I'm willing to bet that no one considers Ohio St., who shared in the Big Ten championship and is a top Ten team, a seven seed. Agreed? Same with Butler and Northern Iowa.

I would say that RPI is more accurate and useful at the bottom of the seeding than at the middle and top. Anything after the bottom 13 teams (14-16 seeds) RPI goes out the window.

Particularly as there are teams like Wichita St. and Kent St. in the 40s and Rhode Island in the 30s who are completely off the board.

Totally agree. It was just a method for organization, not a projection. If I were to go thru and project the seedings, would look different - but i'm just sticking to predicting the 65 teams. I'm too lazy for the seedings :)

Sunday, March 14, 2010
Final Bracket Selection Sunday
It's time to take a look at my final bracket which unfortunately I have to put out before all the games have been played. As of right now my four 1 seeds are (in this order):

Kansas
Kentucky
Syracuse
WVU

The top three will stay exactly as is no matter what happens today. WVU will certainly be the 4th 1 seed if Duke loses, but I think they should be if Duke wins. WVU has 5 top 25 RPI wins to Duke's 1. WVU is 7-4 in true road games, Duke is 5-5. Their numbers against the top 50 are similar but again WVU's games against the top 50 came against better teams than Duke's. To me WVU clearly has the strong resume.

My number 2 seeds are as follows (in this order):

Duke
Ohio State
Kansas State
Villanova

There is a big dropoff between Kansas State and Villanova. There are a bunch of teams with very similar resumes Villanova that could very well get the last 2 seed instead. The forth 2 seed will be a difficult decision (Pitt would be a likely candidate to take their spot).

I will say this has been a very difficult year to find tournament caliber at large teams. I have Minnesota and Illinois in where I have seen many of them either on the edge or out. These teams actually have quality wins over tournament teams...something really lacking from the resumes of UTEP, Cal, Mississippi State and Utah State... and something Florida, VT, and Seton Hall do not have to that level. Judging by who they beat I don't really understand how there is any question that Illinois and Minnesota should be in over all of those teams. (but if I was shown to be wrong...well I wouldn't be shocked)

So that being said I have three spots open... and they will come down to these eight teams:

Cal
Virginia Tech
Mississippi State
Utah State
Seton Hall
Florida
William and Mary
UTEP

Yes I have UTEP at the bottom of that list. UTEP did not beat a tournament team all season long. Their best wins are over Memphis and UAB... to me that is not an NCAA tournament team. I would not be surprised if I am wrong. I would not be surprised if they got in, but to me they have not demonstrated they are an NCAA team.

I will tell you right now... I will be very proud of the committee if they reward Seton Hall and William and Mary over Cal and Mississippi State. Seton Hall's losses nearly all came against top notch teams and has 4 wins over tournament teams. William and Mary has true road wins over Wake Forest and Minnesota (in their limited opportunities). That is strong. In a normal year they would not stand a chance. I think it would be cool if they were rewarded over mediocre teams like Cal and Mississippi State. Cal has 1 win over a tournament team this year. Mississippi State has not been much better.

I feel like I could be wrong on any of my last three and still be fine with the job the committee did. If they do not put Minnesota or Illinois in the tournament I think they will be going against their stated criteria of playing and beating tournament teams. That's why I am fairly confident those teams will get in.

Anyways..this is the least sure I have ever been when predicting the bracket and it is definitely because of the relative weakness at the end of the bracket.

A few procedural things before I show my final bracket. I had to swap Texas and Florida State on the S curve so that Texas could not draw Kansas in the second round and so that Florida State would not play Clemson in round 1. I swapped Texas A&M and Wake Forest to avoid multiple bracket issues. In my bracket today ND was the last 9 seed and Georgia Tech was the top 10 seed. I swapped them to avoid ND getting WVU in the second round and Georgia Tech drawing Duke in round 2. Lastly I swapped Pitt and New Mexico to avoid a Pitt/Villanova sweet 16 match-up. This is not a mandatory change by bracketing rules, but the committee does its best to avoid having high seeds from the same conference on the same side of a region. It was an easy switch so I made it.

That being said here is my final bracket (again Conference Champions in BOLD):



Midwest Regional (St Louis)

1. Kansas
16. Winthrop

8. Marquette
9. Florida State


4. Purdue
13. Houston

5. Tennessee
12. Murray State


2. Villanova
15. North Texas

7. Gonzaga
10. Illinois


3. New Mexico
14. Montana

6. Richmond
11. Illinois



West Regional (Salt Lake City)


1. West Virginia
16. Vermont

8. UNLV
9. Georgia Tech


4. Temple
13. Ohio

5. Michigan State
12. Virginia Tech


2. Duke
15. East Tennessee State

7. Texas A&M
10. Notre Dame


3. Vanderbilt
14. Oakland

6. Oklahoma State
11. Old Dominion

South Regional (Houston)

1. Syracuse
16. Lehigh/Arkansas Pine-Bluff (Play in Game)

8. Missouri
9. St Mary's


4. Baylor
13. New Mexico State

5. BYU
12. Mississippi State


2. Ohio State
15. UCSB

7. Wake Forest
10. San Diego State


3. Georgetown
14. Wofford

6. Maryland
11. Cal



East Regional (Syracuse)


1. Kentucky
16. Robert Morris

8. Clemson
9. Texas


4. Butler
13. Siena

5. Xavier
12. Cornell


2. Kansas State
15. Morgan State

7. Northern Iowa
10. Louisville


3. Pitt
14. Sam Houston State

6. Wisconsin
11. Washington
Posted by Bearcatmark at 10:11 AM

http://bearcatmark.blogspot.com/2010/03/...unday.html

ok I overcame my laziness :) Here are my picks in the correct seeding order:

1: Kansas, Kentucky, Duke, Syracuse
2: WVU, Kansas State, Georgetown, Ohio State
3: Villanova, Pittsburgh, Temple, Baylor
4: New Mexico, Purdue, Wisconsin, Butler
5: Tennessee, Maryland, Richmond, BYU
6: Texas A&M, Michigan State, Vanderbilt, Xavier
7: Northern Iowa, San Diego State, Notre Dame, Texas
8: California, Clemson, Oklahoma State, St. Mary’s
9: Gonzaga, Washington, Marquette, UTEP
10: Florida State, UNLV, Old Dominion, Georgia Tech
11: Louisville, Missouri, Siena, Utah State
12: Minnesota, New Mexico State, Virginia Tech, Wake Forest
13: Cornell, Oakland, Murray State, Wofford
14: Sam Houston State, UCSB, Montana, Ohio
15: Morgan State, North Texas, Houston, Vermont
16: ETSU, Robert Morris, Lehigh (Winthrop vs. ARK-PB)


Last four in:
1. Minnesota
2. Wake Forest
3. Virginia Tech
4. Utah State

First four out:

1. Mississippi State
2: Florida
3: Rhode Island
4: Seton Hall


IF Mississippi State wins today, Minnesota is out. If they both win, Wake Forest is out.

(03-14-2010 12:59 PM)bearcatmark Wrote:  I will tell you right now... I will be very proud of the committee if they reward Seton Hall and William and Mary over Cal and Mississippi State. Seton Hall's losses nearly all came against top notch teams and has 4 wins over tournament teams.

Agreed. I don't expect it to happen, but I would be thrilled if W&M and/or Seton Hall got in the field.

SEC title goes into Overtime. Even if they lose, MSU is certainly giving it their all. If it's down to MSU and Minnesota for the last spot, Minnesota better not get blown out against OSU.

OH, you meant for the tourny! I thought this was an expansion thread for some new super conference!

(03-14-2010 12:59 PM)bearcatmark Wrote:  Yes I have UTEP at the bottom of that list. UTEP did not beat a tournament team all season long.

To be technical, UTEP did beat New Mexico St. That doesn't change your point though. Thanks for the projections.

(03-14-2010 01:21 PM)wvucrazed Wrote:  ok I overcame my laziness :) Here are my picks in the correct seeding order:

1: Kansas, Kentucky, Duke, Syracuse
2: WVU, Kansas State, Georgetown, Ohio State
3: Villanova, Pittsburgh, Temple, Baylor
4: New Mexico, Purdue, Wisconsin, Butler
5: Tennessee, Maryland, Richmond, BYU
6: Texas A&M, Michigan State, Vanderbilt, Xavier
7: Northern Iowa, San Diego State, Notre Dame, Texas
8: California, Clemson, Oklahoma State, St. Mary’s
9: Gonzaga, Washington, Marquette, UTEP
10: Florida State, UNLV, Old Dominion, Georgia Tech
11: Louisville, Missouri, Siena, Utah State
12: Minnesota, New Mexico State, Virginia Tech, Wake Forest
13: Cornell, Oakland, Murray State, Wofford
14: Sam Houston State, UCSB, Montana, Ohio
15: Morgan State, North Texas, Houston, Vermont
16: ETSU, Robert Morris, Lehigh (Winthrop vs. ARK-PB)


Last four in:
1. Minnesota
2. Wake Forest
3. Virginia Tech
4. Utah State

First four out:

1. Mississippi State
2: Florida
3: Rhode Island
4: Seton Hall


IF Mississippi State wins today, Minnesota is out. If they both win, Wake Forest is out.

Gonna switch the last 2 - Minnesota out, Mississippi State in.

1: Kansas, Kentucky, Duke, Syracuse
2: WVU, Kansas State, Georgetown, Ohio State
3: Villanova, Pittsburgh, Temple, Baylor
4: New Mexico, Purdue, Wisconsin, Butler
5: Tennessee, Maryland, Richmond, BYU
6: Texas A&M, Michigan State, Vanderbilt, Xavier
7: Northern Iowa, San Diego State, Notre Dame, Texas
8: California, Clemson, Oklahoma State, St. Mary’s
9: Gonzaga, Washington, Marquette, UTEP
10: Florida State, UNLV, Old Dominion, Georgia Tech
11: Louisville, Missouri, Siena, Utah State
12: Mississippi State, New Mexico State, Virginia Tech, Wake Forest
13: Cornell, Oakland, Murray State, Wofford
14: Sam Houston State, UCSB, Montana, Ohio
15: Morgan State, North Texas, Houston, Vermont
16: ETSU, Robert Morris, Lehigh (Winthrop vs. ARK-PB)


Last four in:
1. Mississippi State
2. Wake Forest
3. Virginia Tech
4. Utah State

First four out:

1. Minnesota
2: Florida
3: Rhode Island
4: Seton Hall

Hey crazed, did you see this quote from Huggins?

Quote:“We have 18 top 100 [RPI] wins. We have nine top 50 wins. The 18 is the most of any team in the country. Our non-league RPI was second. Our strength of schedule is going to be [No.] 1. We’re going to end up in the top two or three of the RPI.”

If the selection committee is impartial, WVU should get the 4th #1 seed...

(03-14-2010 04:12 PM)bitcruncher Wrote:  Hey crazed, did you see this quote from Huggins?

Quote:“We have 18 top 100 [RPI] wins. We have nine top 50 wins. The 18 is the most of any team in the country. Our non-league RPI was second. Our strength of schedule is going to be [No.] 1. We’re going to end up in the top two or three of the RPI.”

If the selection committee is impartial, WVU should get the 4th #1 seed...

I agree WVU deserves it, but I suspect it will go to Duke. I would love to be wrong!

I never said the committee was impartial. I merely said IF...

Wake Forest as a #9 seed is bewildering to me. Temple way too low as a 5, and Richmond was also too low as a 7.

I missed 2: had Minnesota and Florida out, Virginia Tech and Mississippi State in.

looking over the NIT field... i really don't like the idea of expanding the Big Dance, apart from adding 3 to have play-in games at each regional. This field isn't strong enough to think that the Big Dance would be better from their inclusion. There are usually about 3 with legit issues, so expanding by 3 would be perfect... but this idea of 96 would be terrible in my opinion.