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Pomeroy Ratings Chances of Winning the Tourney
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ksuowlsfan Offline
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Pomeroy Ratings Chances of Winning the Tourney
Did some number crunching from the fantastic Pomeroy Ratings, and it yields the following chances of winning the A Sun Tourney. This is affected both by a team's head-to-head chances against other teams along with the probability of facing another team deep in the tourney. I used neutral court for everyone but Mercer (home court).

1) Jacksonville 22.0% (4.5:1)
2) Belmont 20.9% (5:1)
3) ETSU 16.7% (6:1)
4) Lipscomb 15.5% (6.5:1)
5) Campbell 12.9% (8:1)
6) Mercer 11.2% (9:1)
7) North Florida 0.4% (250:1)
8) KSU 0.3% (333:1)
03-01-2010 03:06 PM
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KennesawBasketball Offline
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RE: Pomeroy Ratings Chances of Winning the Tourney
At 333:1 odds I would lay 15 bucks down on the Owls to win the tournament :) An easy 5,000.00 that would pay for my trip to the NCAA tournament if we won. I think we have a decent draw to be honest. If Campbell can beat ETSU I think we have a shot at advancing assuming we pull the upset in the first round. If we get a win, I think it will take the team to a whole new level. I know I am thinking pie in the sky, but we were beating Campbell and Lipscomb on the road in the past two games we played them...both with less than 5 minutes to play. Both teams hit a few killer threes that hurt us, otherwise we could have come out of both games with wins. We just need to come ready to play against Lipscomb and hope that Campbell beats ETSU.
03-01-2010 03:41 PM
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ksuowlsfan Offline
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RE: Pomeroy Ratings Chances of Winning the Tourney
Updated after the first two games. Not surprisingly, the KSU win helps ETSU's chances more than any other team's.

1) Jacksonville 26.2% (4:1)
2) ETSU 22.5% (4:1)
3) Belmont 20.3% (5:1)
4) Campbell 18.1% (6:1)
5) Mercer 10.7% (9:1)
6) KSU 2.2% (45:1)

Go Owls!
03-04-2010 10:00 AM
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ksuowlsfan Offline
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RE: Pomeroy Ratings Chances of Winning the Tourney
After the first round:

1) ETSU 45.6% (2:1)
2) Jacksonville 26.6% (4:1)
3) Mercer 25.6% (4:1)
4) KSU 2.1% (47:1)

Here's hoping for another big upset tonight.
03-05-2010 08:27 AM
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KennesawBasketball Offline
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RE: Pomeroy Ratings Chances of Winning the Tourney
I got everyone but ETSU right in the first round, and I knew that ETSU would win that game, I was just hoping to play Campbell..
03-05-2010 08:40 AM
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