(02-08-2010 01:34 PM)bitcruncher Wrote:  

(02-08-2010 01:32 PM)CD11 Wrote:  

(02-08-2010 01:02 PM)bitcruncher Wrote:  I think you're right there. UC is currently 5-6 in conference, and have 7 games remaining: @UConn, @USF, Marquette, DePaul, @WVU, Villanova, @Georgetown. The Bearcats need to go 4-3 over the remaining 7 games to get to 9-9. I don't see 4 wins there for the Bearcats. They'll have to play well to get 3 wins in that slate. Their only relatively sure victory is DePaul. The rest of the games will be dogfights...

read: losses.

pretty much...

Hope you're doing well, bit.

As well as can be expected. Thanks...

(02-08-2010 01:23 AM)CollegeCard Wrote:  How many bids will the Big East receive? At this point, 4 teams are essentially locked in, an Pittsburgh is a near lock barring complete collapse. I'm not projecting who will be in Lunardi's updated bracket tomorrow, but predicting how it will play out, I think Louisville and Marquette will garner bids, for another year of 7 total bids.

Here are the current RPI and records for teams fighting for spots. Strength of schedule is in parentheses:

#39 Louisville 15-8, 6-4 (5)
#48 South Florida 15-7, 5-5 (28)
#52 Cincinnati 14-8, 5-5 (23)
#57 Connecticut 14-9, 4-6 (6)
#59 Marquette 15-8, 6-5 (46)
#63 Seton Hall 12-9, 3-7 (9)
#66 Notre Dame 16-7, 5-5 (67)

After looking through the remaining schedules, I see UofL and Marquette in the 11-7 range, and receiving a bid. Marquette currently has little love from the computers, but they should rise if they win as I expect them to.

Several others will need a run in the Garden, as I see Cincy, UConn, and ND finishing 9-9 at best, and 8-10 as more likely. Seton Hall's remaining schedule is the weakest by far, by with 7 losses already, they have little to no room for future losses. South Florida is the unexpected wild card. I see them finishing around 9-9, but 10-8 is possible.

Overall, I'll say 7 NCAA bids, 5 NIT bids to the other above teams.

Agreed. The schedule sets up nicely for Marquette. They and UL have the best shot to be #6 and #7.

(02-09-2010 12:17 AM)KnightChris Wrote:  

(02-08-2010 01:23 AM)CollegeCard Wrote:  After looking through the remaining schedules, I see UofL and Marquette in the 11-7 range, and receiving a bid. Marquette currently has little love from the computers, but they should rise if they win as I expect them to.

As I've said before, I really like Marquette's team this year. Although their record isn't very good, I think they're better than their record and will finish strong, ultimately finding a way to get into the tournament. I'm less sure of UofL though. I like Notre Dame's odds a little bit better. 7 bids in all (Marquette, ND, Pitt, & the 4 locks).

I'm far from sold on the Irish. Since the beginning of last season, they are 3-11 on the road in conference play. If they don't win @ Seton Hall on Thursday, I see them finishing 1-8 on the road this year. They can prove me wrong in Freedom Hall next week, but I see them as a bubble team in the NIT.

(02-09-2010 12:35 AM)CollegeCard Wrote:  

(02-09-2010 12:17 AM)KnightChris Wrote:  

(02-08-2010 01:23 AM)CollegeCard Wrote:  After looking through the remaining schedules, I see UofL and Marquette in the 11-7 range, and receiving a bid. Marquette currently has little love from the computers, but they should rise if they win as I expect them to.

As I've said before, I really like Marquette's team this year. Although their record isn't very good, I think they're better than their record and will finish strong, ultimately finding a way to get into the tournament. I'm less sure of UofL though. I like Notre Dame's odds a little bit better. 7 bids in all (Marquette, ND, Pitt, & the 4 locks).

I'm far from sold on the Irish. Since the beginning of last season, they are 3-11 on the road in conference play. If they don't win @ Seton Hall on Thursday, I see them finishing 1-8 on the road this year. They can prove me wrong in Freedom Hall next week, but I see them as a bubble team in the NIT.

I agree. The Irish could even finish 9-9 and not get a bid.

This is how I see it right now:

SU - 15-3 (28-3) #1 seed
Nova - 15-3 (26-4) #1 seed
G'Town - 13-5 (23-6) #2 seed
WVU - 12-6 (23-7) #3 seed
Pitt - 12-6 (23-8) #5 seed
UL - 11-7 (20-11) #8 seed
Marq - 11-7 (20-10) #8 seed

Cheers,
Neil

(02-09-2010 11:22 AM)KnightChris Wrote:  

(02-09-2010 10:16 AM)omnicarrier Wrote:  I agree. The Irish could even finish 9-9 and not get a bid.

If they finish 9-9, they should end up with a half-way decent seed for the BET, and a favorable first-round match-up. Even assuming they lose their second BET game, that would put them at 21-12 and squarely on the bubble. Actually, based on recent history I would say that most likely leaves them OUT. However, I see 9-9 in the BE as an absolute worst case scenario. I'm thinking 10-8 is more likely, and that's a more respectable bubble case (22-11).

Not sure how you would think the Irish could finish at 10-8. They couldn't beat Rutgers at Rutgers, so I doubt they will win any of their remaining home games. And even if they do win @ Seton Hall (their only semi-realistic shot at a road win left), they will lose to either Pitt or UConn at home.

They have one quality win, WVU at home - that's it. And they have bad losses to Loyola Marymount and Rutgers.

Cheers,
Neil

(02-09-2010 04:34 PM)KnightChris Wrote:  

(02-09-2010 04:26 PM)omnicarrier Wrote:  Not sure how you would think the Irish could finish at 10-8. They couldn't beat Rutgers at Rutgers, so I doubt they will win any of their remaining home games. And even if they do win @ Seton Hall (their only semi-realistic shot at a road win left), they will lose to either Pitt or UConn at home.

They have one quality win, WVU at home - that's it. And they have bad losses to Loyola Marymount and Rutgers.

Friendly side bet then? This can be your chance at redemption after (presumably) badly losing our side bet on STJ's BEast home record.

You're on. I have already admitted in another thread I was wrong on the Johnnies. I made too much out of their win over Temple in Philly. Should have trusted my "coaching is what matters" mantra.

Which is why the Irish will be going to the NIT again. Brey sucks! At least in comparison to 5 of the remaining 8 coaches he'll be facing.

Cheers,
Neil

This saturday's game of USF at Marquette is huge in both schools NCAA's hopes

Marquette will be favorite they play at home and they are hard to beat there.

Well, I'm selling on the Cardinals. I think this will be our worst loss ever in Big East play... to St John's? WTF. The Storm is horrible, and UofL was WAY worse than STJ tonight. I have never seen such a lack of leadership from Seniors than I've seen from Sosa and Smith. Ready for them to get out of town and start over, with anyone other than them.

Looks like Syracuse won't be the last game in the Hall after all.

(02-11-2010 09:15 PM)KnightChris Wrote:  Hmmm... perhaps we were a bit premature in calling that STJ bet, Neil. If they win out they'll actually reach 6 home wins.

I really doubt that Pitt, SH, and Marquette play as poorly as UofL did last night. I think you're safe if they needed 6 wins for Neil to win the bet!

ND came out of nowhere. Very impressive finish for the Irish.