posterformerlyknownasthedoctor
Heisman
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RE: Official Game Thread: @ Mercer (L 78-83)
**** I really don't have time to delve deeply into this. Please don't take my lack of detail as an agreement with you......
My comments below begin with asterisks........
(01-18-2010 01:33 PM)LetsgoBucs Wrote: (01-18-2010 01:05 PM)posterformerlyknownasthedoctor Wrote: I think we all know there's not a *tremendous* amount of difference, and I won't take the time to analyze this in depth. But...........
1) ETSU's addition to the ASun has strengthened it; there is no doubt about that, thus there is that statistical bias introduced.
The ASun seeding has not really improved since we joined the conference, so I don't think you could say that our addition pushed the data upward.
**** Are you saying that ETSU's average RPI rating has been less than the overall RPI of the ASun? Surely you don't mean that......
ETSU's RPI since it has been in the league has raised the conference RPI of the ASun. Please do the math on that and get back to us.
I didn't say the seeding has improved. Hardly. We've raised the *average* strength of the conference overall because we've been above the strength of the average team. The standings and tournament championships attest to that.
2) The ASun has not had a team seeded above 14 since 2001.
The SoCon has had a couple teams seeded high. Davidson was an anomaly and a far better team than is usually representative of the SoCon.
**** Well, we've been over and over that. Was UTC's sweet 16 team also an anomaly? While I actually agree with you, Remember, Appy should also have gotten in one of those years. The SoCon has traditionally been *much* closer to being a two-bid league than has the ASun. In fact, I don't even remember the ASun and "two-bid league" ever being mentioned in the same breath - ever.......
My point still stands.
3) We, and the rest of the country, know that Davey's 10 seed last year was WAY too low, just like ours was for several of our NCAA appearances.
Hmmm, this sounds to me like you are saying that both ETSU's and Davidson's teams were better than their seeding. Let's see these are SoCon champs right? So what you're telling me is that the committee, who knows the quality of the conferences, did not deem the SoCon champs worthy of the seed that you say they truly deserved? Sounds to me like you're saying that winning the SoCon doesn't get the respect that is deserved, which says to me that the committee doesn't respect the accomplishment of winning the SoCon all that much. So was the SoCon actually holding us back?
**** I *am* saying that the committee knows who's in which conferences, which is what I originally wrote. We also both know that the committee has always favored seeding teams, even maybe 5th- or 6th-place teams from large conferences, over conferences such as the SoCon or the ASun. Without delving deeply, due to time constraints, into this argument, *neither* the SoCon nor the ASun, or shall we say the top-most teams therein, get the respect from the NCAA they deserve, come seeding time. So yes, in that respect, the SoCon actually held us back, too. Witness us winning it more than the statistical average would have predicted. I thought we all knew that, too. It did not, however, hold us back as much as the ASun.
4) UTC's seeding last year was poor because they just happened to win the tournament with a record worthy of a 16 seed. Another statistical bias there.
They won it didn't they? The Davidson team that earned a 10 seed wasn't able to win the tournament. Don't you think this was a factor in the committee's decision to award Davidson a 10 seed?
**** Davidson had a much less stellar supporting cast last year. I don't remember the details, and don't have time to look it up, but there was some 'issue' that night. (Maybe Wiggins from down the road in Greeneville was guarding him?) Anyway, yes, certainly it was a factor, as it should have been. But they still should have gotten in with 26 wins, or however many it was. Make them a 10 seed for 2009 instead of 2008, when they should have been like a 7 seed or so. My point was that had UTC had a better record, AND won the tournament, they would have had a 14 or 15 seed, AND Davey could have still gotten in, too. UTC winning the tournament last year was as much as an anomaly as Davey having Curry.
5) We've discussed those teams in the past on this board who've been below the 300 RPI level. The weighting of teams from the ASun has historically (since ETSU has been in the ASun) been MUCH heavier than for SoCon teams. That also is indisputable. Which of course hurts our SOS - a big factor in seeding. We've been in the predicament in past years of winning 4 or 5 ASun games in a row........and see our RPI actually drop.
I agree those teams hurt our SOS. The SoCon has it's share of bottom dwellers as well (UNCG, Wofford, Furman). The thing is, having those teams in our conference isn't necessarily what killed us, it was losing to some of those teams that hurt us so badly. That's our own fault, not a conference issue.
**** UNCG, Wofford, and Furman didn't have as low of RPIs as have had the bottom-dwellers in the ASun. But, that being said - sure, losing to those teams is even more of a problem than playing them. I think that goes without saying......
Same as if we would have lost to Wofford in the SoCon. Also, the committee last year placed a heavy emphasis on overall strength of schedule. The mid-majors with high seeds last year were those who played strong out of conference schedules, more than their conference schedule. We've remedied that problem this year. Who knows what would have been if we'd have played this schedule last year? Again, not a conference issue.
**** I basically agree with you there........as I think most would.
6) You're the one who brought up championships. Your list is only basketball. I've already refuted your earlier (I think it was you - sorry if I'm mistaken) post about track. No way is a championship in track & field as prestigious in the ASun. Not to mention our "glory" years in cross-country were in the SoCon, and somewhat also in the OVC before that.
It is only basketball. There just isn't the data to compare the qualiy of most of the other sports. You pretty much have to be ranked top 25, which neither conference has too much of. I mentioned previously the regional rankings of cross country, where the ASun is slightly better. Two years ago our ASun conference men's soccer champ (JU) won a first round NCAA tourney game, while the conference championship loser (Campbell) finished 25th in the final poll. Baseball has traditionally been strong in both conferences. FGCU was ranked top 25 for part of last year in softball. Obviously our tennis programs strengthen the ASun, just as they did the SoCon. Golf is a decent sport in both conferences. There are accomplishments by both conferences that are decent, but neither is particularly noteworthy on a national level.
**** Again, I don't have to time to delve deeply here, but quickly, tennis and golf have been about the same. In tennis, each conference has had about two other very-high-quality teams, with the others falling off considerably. Yaser Zaatini and Steve Brooks have done marvelous jobs. They would be successful wherever they coach. Most here don't realize how fortunate we are to have Zaatini here. The Fred Warren issue has been beat to death here, so I won't revisit that, except to say that how one performs/rates there is mostly about the regional tournaments one plays in. The conference really doesn't matter......
You're right, you did "refute" my statement. You must not have read my response where I corrected your error. Again, in all sports for the most part the difference in conferences is slight.
**** No, I did not. Perhaps I can get to that in the future....
**** I could go on, but I'll leave it at that. There is some subjectivity in weighting these things. It's true that the average fan in most areas of the country doesn't know who's in the SoCon, Big South, or the ASun -- or even C-USA or the Atlantic 10 for that matter. But those who are on the seeding committee for the NCAA tournament *do* know these things. We are being hurt by this conference in basketball. Maybe not to a gigantic degree, but it's worth about 1.5 to 2 seeding places in the NCAA. Which is a big deal.
I mean, look at the close losses we've had. Except for the AZ game, and the Ga. Tech game (with 4 future NBA players, if I remember correctly - at least 3), it's been close loss after close loss. Although each game is it's own special case, if you have 1.5 to 2 higher seeding in those games, ETSU could well have won 1 or 2 more. And then who knows after that first game. As Davey has proven. As UTC has proven......
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