#81 Link

The Quad Countdown: No. 81 Virginia

Location: Charlottesville, Va.

Nickname: Cavaliers.

Last year’s ranking: No. 51.

What was said:

Despite its losses, Virginia has a chance to again finish second behind Virginia Tech in the Coastal division, though Miami’s improvement may dictate where the Cavaliers fall in the conference standings. The big question is on defense, which lost the nation’s best defender in Long. Can the unit come close to a repeat of last fall, when the Cavaliers held 11 of 13 teams under 24 points? Most likely, no, though U.S.C. and Clemson represent the only high-octane offenses on the U.V.A. schedule. Getting better as the season moves on will be key: Virginia’s four toughest A.C.C. games come in November. Over all, I predict a 7-5 finish for the Wahoos and a third-place finish in the Coastal division.

Re-ranking: No. 79.

2008 record and recap: (5-7, 3-5). In 2007, Virginia won six games by 5 or fewer points. Last fall, close games more often than not ended up as losses for the Cavaliers, as the team slipped from nine wins to five, giving the program its second losing season in three years. The story last fall (as was the case in 2006, when U.V.A. also went 5-7) was the ineffectiveness of the offense, which slumped to scoring only 193 points (16.1 per game), down from 317 in 2007. Again, it was up to the defense to hold up its end of the bargain, and the unit again delivered, allowing only 21.7 points and 333.2 yards of offense per game. Though this was slightly below how the defense performed in 2007, the group still played well enough to push the Wahoos into bowl play. They were almost there: 5-3 through October, the Cavaliers needed to win only one of four in November. Unfortunately, the offense scored 17, 17, 3 and 14 points over the final four games, giving a determined, talented defense nothing to work with. If Virginia is to improve in 2009, the offense must begin to carry its weight. Hiring Gregg Brandon, the former head coach at Bowling Green, to replace Mike Groh as offensive coordinator is a very good start. Can Brandon turn the offense around in one season?

High point: A four-game winning streak to open October included wins over East Carolina, Maryland (by 31-0), North Carolina and Georgia Tech. At the time of these wins, both U.N.C. and the Yellow Jackets were ranked No. 18 in the nation. All four teams played in a bowl game, making Virginia one of the hottest teams in the nation during this stretch.

Low point: A 31-3 loss to Duke was hard to swallow, though Duke was obviously an improved team in 2008. The same can be said of a 17-14 loss to rival Virginia Tech in the season finale, a game U.V.A. led, 14-7, at the half. Standing 5-3 through eight weeks, all the Hoos had to do was win one of its last four to reach bowl eligibility.

Tidbit: Virginia’s loss to Duke was notable for a number of reasons. First, it was Duke’s first win in the series this decade. Over this period (eight straight wins), the Wahoos outscored the Blue Devils, 247-78, for an average final score of roughly 31-10. In all, the loss marked Virginia’s third against Duke since 1989. Duke had not held U.V.A. to fewer than 10 points in a game since 1977, and had not kept Virginia out of the end zone since 1971. On the other hand, Virginia has shut out the Blue Devils five times since 1990.

Tidbit (guest writer’s spot): Ryan Myerberg, a 2002 graduate of the University of Virginia, gives a fan’s perspective on the state of the U.V.A. football program. His views do not represent the views of the Countdown nor perhaps the views of any other member of the Virginia fan base:

“Years of stagnation, whether it be in recruiting or on offense, have caused the Virginia program to stumble into mediocrity. Defense is never an issue at U.V.A. The program has also done a wonderful job churning out N.F.L.-ready linemen, and those men up front have produced talented Cavalier running backs at the collegiate level. However, U.V.A.’s inability to recruit difference makers at receiver and quarterback means there just isn’t enough talent in the cupboard to foresee a dramatic improvement over where the program currently stands. The most damning evidence about the fallen state of the program comes when the Wahoos play Virginia Tech in the Commonwealth Cup. Outside of a 31-21 win at home in 2003, Virginia hasn’t beaten the Hokies in its seven other attempts under Al Groh. That isn’t going to cut it with the supporters of this program. The sad fact of the matter is that U.V.A. is now a bottom-tier program in the A.C.C. That won’t change until the program closes the recruiting borders surrounding the state, develops an explosive (I’d even settle for efficient) offense and decides that a seven-win season is not, in fact, something to hang your hat on.”

Former players in the N.F.L.: 32 – OG Branden Albert (Kansas City Chiefs), LB Antonio Appleby (New England Patriots), CB Ronde Barber (Tampa Bay Buccaneers), LB Darryl Blackstock (Cincinnati Bengals), LB Ahmad Brooks (San Francisco 49ers), OG Elton Brown (Arizona Cardinals), OT Brad Butler (Buffalo Bills), DE Chris Canty (Giants), LB Angelo Crowell (Tampa Bay Buccaneers), LB Isaiah Ekejiuba (Oakland Raiders), LB James Farrior (Pittsburgh Steelers), OT D’Brickashaw Ferguson (Jets), DE Alex Field (Giants), WR Marques Hagans (Washington Redskins), CB Marcus Hamilton (Chicago Bears), RB Thomas Jones (Jets), DE Patrick Kerney (Seattle Seahawks), DE Chris Long (St. Louis Rams), WR Billy McMullen (Seattle Seahawks), TE Heath Miller (Pittsburgh Steelers), TE Fontel Mines (Chicago Bears), OT Eugene Monroe (Jacksonville Jaguars), WR Kevin Ogletree (Dallas Cowboys), RB Alvin Pearman (Jacksonville Jaguars), RB Cedric Peerman (Baltimore Ravens), TE John Phillips (Dallas Cowboys), TE Tom Santi (Indianapolis Colts), QB Matt Schaub (Houston Texans), LB Clint Sintim (Giants), RB Jason Snelling (Atlanta Falcons), OT John St. Clair (Cleveland Browns), TE Jonathan Stupar (Buffalo Bills).

Top five N.F.L. players from Virginia: Two members of the Hall of Fame in Jordan and Dudley, a multiple-time all-Pro in Randle and the Barber brothers. All in all, a very good list for the Cavaliers, but is it good enough to knock off Washington for the third spot on the Countdown? Unfortunately, no. Still, U.V.A. is a clear fourth, though that counts for nothing.

1. DT Henry Jordan (Cleveland, Green Bay; 1957-69)
2. RB Tiki Barber (Giants; 1997-2006)
3. RB Bill Dudley (Pittsburgh, Detroit, Washington; 1942-53)
4. WR Sonny Randle (Chicago, St. Louis, S.F., Dallas, Wash.; 1959-69)
5. CB Ronde Barber (Tampa Bay; 1997-present)

Tidbit (lacrosse edition): Brett Hughes, who is the director of high school lacrosse for ESPN (check out his lacrosse blog here), gives us his take on the top five lacrosse players in Virginia history. A two-time all-American himself, Hughes knows what he’s talking about. How does Virginia’s list stand up to the one from Syracuse?

1. Doug Knight, Attack: Three time all-American, career goals leader.
2. Mike Watson, Attack: Four-time all-A.C.C., four-time all-American.
3. Jay Jalbert, Midfield: The most dominating midfielder in U.V.A. history.
4. Tom Duquette, Attack: One of the first big names to make a splash.
5. Tillman Johnson, Goalie: No doubt the best goalie in school history.

Team

Conference: Atlantic Coast, Coastal division.

Head coach: Al Groh (Virginia ’67), 56-44 after eight seasons at his alma mater. Last year’s 5-7 record gave Groh three losing seasons as the U.V.A. head coach (each a 5-7 finish), but Groh has also won at least eight games four times and participated in five bowl games, winning three. Now entering his ninth season in Charlottesville, Groh stands tied with Frank Murray as the second-longest tenured coach in school history, trailing only his predecessor, George Welsh. Groh’s 56 career wins also place him second behind Welsh, and his .560 winning percentage ranks third among U.V.A. coaches with at least four years’ experience. This is Groh’s second F.B.S. head coaching stop, joining Wake Forest (1981-86), where he compiled a 26-40 record. He stands tied for fourth on the school’s career win list. Of course, Groh is most well known for his time spent as an assistant in the N.F.L. under Bill Parcells, a period that stretched from 1989 to 1999 (with one year, 1992, in Cleveland) with three different teams: the Giants (1990-91), New England (1993-96) and the Jets (1997-99). Groh was the defensive coordinator for the Giants in 1991 and for the Patriots for each of his four seasons with the team. After three years as the linebackers coach with the Jets, Groh was promoted to head coach in 2000 to replace Parcells. He responded by leading the Jets to a 9-7 record, a finish that left the team just short of a playoff birth. Groh has consistently produced strong teams at Virginia, but has only once, in 2007, finished among the top two of either the entire A.C.C. (before the addition of the former Big East teams) or the Coastal division. Should Virginia be satisfied with an average of seven wins a season, with the occasional (twice in eight years) push for 10 wins and an upper-tier bowl game? After last season’s finish, Groh is very much on the hot seat.

Tidbit (coaching edition): Earlier I said that in order to see an improvement in the win column, the Cavaliers must get a much better performance from its offense. Really going out on a limb, Paul. In an effort to do so, Al Groh decided to fire his son Mike, the team’s offensive coordinator the last three seasons, and replace him with Gregg Brandon, formerly the head coach at Bowling Green, who will implement a pass-first version of the spread offense. Under Groh, the Cavaliers never ranked in the top 100 in the F.B.S. in total offense. In other coaching news, the Cavalier program welcomes back its former offensive coordinator Ron Prince, whose three-year stint as the coach at Kansas State mercifully came to an end last November. Prince will be the team’s special teams coordinator, though I wouldn’t be surprised to see him help out with coaching the offensive line.

Returning starters: 12 (6 offense, 6 defense).

Key losses: While not decimated by its losses, Virginia will need to retool without the services of several key starters on both sides of the ball. On offense, the most notable loss is that of left tackle Eugene Monroe, who continued the tradition of standout Virginia offensive linemen with an all-American senior season. One of the most highly touted recruits of the Al Groh era, Monroe spent his first three seasons in the relative shadow of D’Brickashaw Ferguson and Branden Albert, two other Wahoo linemen who went on to achieve first-round N.F.L. draft status. Like those two, Monroe was a top 15 N.F.L. draft pick (eighth over all to Jacksonville). Though the Cavaliers return their four other starters from the 2008 front, the team does not have a player of Monroe’s caliber to step into the vacated left tackle spot. The team’s other losses on offense come at the skill positions, where the team must find new starters at running back, wide receiver and tight end. In the backfield, Cedric Peerman came on strong down the stretch of his final season to post three 100-yard performances in the team’s final eight games. Peerman, who was stymied by injuries as a junior, finished the 2008 campaign with career highs in attempts (153), rushing yards (774), receptions (44) and receiving yards (193). He had only 96 yards through the team’s first four games (one of which he missed to injury), illustrating just how important he was to the offense in the second half of the season. In the passing game, the team must replace wide receivers Kevin Ogletree (a team-leading 51 receptions, 723 yards, 5 scores), Maurice Covington (33 for 414 yards) and Cary Koch (30 for 293), as well as tight end John Phillips (48 for 325, 2 scores). When including Peerman, Virginia will be without the services of its five pass catchers from a season ago; no returning player had more than 15 receptions last fall, and no returning receiver had more than 12. Ogletree, who would have been a senior in 2009, opted to forgo his final season of eligibility and enter the N.F.L. draft. On defense, the Cavaliers must find three new starters on the linebacker corps, an integral unit in Virginia’s 3-4 defense. The best of the departed threesome was outside linebacker Clint Sintim, a four-year starter and one of the top passing rushing linebackers in the F.B.S. As a senior, Sintim had 70 tackles (16 for loss) and a team-leading 11 sacks, totals that earned him all-A.C.C. honors for the first time. Sintim concluded his career with 46 tackles for loss and 28 sacks. His fellow starters, Antonio Appelby and Jon Copper — both of whom played in the middle — were also multiple-year contributors. The duo finished one-two on the team in tackles as seniors: Copper led the way with 101, while Appelby added a career-best 72 (8 for loss).

Players to watch: While the team will be hurting for difference makers at the offensive skill positions, it receives a boost with the return of the senior quarterback Jameel Sewell, who missed all of last season because of academic difficulties. As a sophomore in 2007 (as he had already used a redshirt season, last fall served as a default junior year), Sewell threw for 2,176 yards and 12 scores in leading Virginia to several narrow victories. Virginia’s ineptitude on offense in 2008 can be tied closely to poor play from the quarterback position, so getting Sewell back for his senior season — even if he is not a great fit for Brandon’s offense — can only help. To regain his starting job, Sewell will need to outplay the junior Marc Verica, who started nine of the team’s final 10 games, and the senior Vic Hall, likely the best athlete on the team. In 2008, Verica threw for 2,037 yards on 63.8 percent passing, but threw 16 interceptions against 8 touchdowns. Hall, who has started 24 career games in the secondary, looks to have made the switch full time to quarterback after starting under center for the team’s 17-14 loss to Virginia Tech. Hall may have jaw-dropping athleticism, but he is not the type of passer you’d hope for in Brandon’s offense. Nevertheless, he is the favorite to start the season opener, though I’d imagine Sewell would eventually reclaim his starting spot. While Virginia will miss having Monroe anchoring the left side of the line, the team does return four starters from a season ago. Leading the way is the senior right tackle Will Barker, who enters his final season with 37 career starts. The favorite to replace Monroe at left tackle is the sophomore Landon Bradley, Monroe’s understudy a season ago, but a name to remember is the incoming freshman Morgan Moses, who could force his way into the lineup as a rookie. The Cavaliers are expecting a breakout season from running back Mikell Simpson (262 yards, 3 scores last fall), though the senior, who was hampered by injuries last fall, must stay healthy. As a sophomore in 2007, Simpson notched 570 yards rushing (on 5.0 yards per carry) and 402 yards receiving. Though Virginia has a dearth of experience at linebacker, the team brings back seven of its top eight on the line, making the unit the most experienced on the defense. At end, the sophomore Matt Conrath’s sterling rookie season saw him finish with 35 tackles (8 for loss) and 4 sacks. His potential has Wahoo fans excited, and understandably so. Potentially moving out to end to replace the departed starter Alex Field is the senior Nate Collins, who played at nose tackle a season ago. If Collins stays inside, he’ll again team with the sophomore Nick Jenkins at the nose; however, the team would be wise to attempt to get both players on the field at the same time. I’m excited about the potential of the secondary, which returns two starters from 2008 — the talented junior Ras-I Dowling and the sophomore Chase Minnifield — and a third past starter, Chris Cook, who missed all of last fall. If Hall cannot hold on to the starting job at quarterback, he’ll likely be moved back to cornerback, giving the team even more depth. Dowling, who is entering his third season as a starter at corner, led the team with three interceptions last fall. He has the potential to be one of the top corners in the A.C.C. The pair of Dowling and Minnifield may start, but there is good depth, led by players like Cook (19 career starts). Another player to watch in the secondary is the sophomore Rodney McLeod, who will move from corner to safety in 2008. He’ll be joined at safety by the sophomore Corey Mosley (46 tackles in nine starts) and the senior Brandon Woods, who made three starts in 2008.

Position battle to watch: On offense, there is reason to be concerned about the wide receiver position, where only one player (the sophomore Jared Green) had more than 10 receptions in 2008. Green, who finished with 12 receptions for 144 yards, is expected to assume the No. 1 spot for the Cavaliers, but finding depth behind him may be difficult. Two players who should become key members of the rotation are Dontrelle Inman and Staton Jobe, each of whom struggled through poor 2008 seasons: the pair combined to make 34 receptions in 2007, but had only three combined in 2008. The sophomore Kris Burd had seven receptions (for 65 yards) last fall, and will find his playing time increased in Brandon’s multiple-receiver sets. Defensively, Groh and his staff will need to locate several new starters at linebacker. The lone returning starter is the senior Denzel Burrell (48 stops, 4 for loss), who will again start outside. He’ll be joined by fellow senior Aaron Clark, who was injured in the season opener against U.S.C. and missed the team’s final 11 games. On the inside, the senior Darren Childs made two starts last fall due to injuries to Copper and Appleby; he is expected to take over at one of the two open spots.

2009 schedule:
Sept. 5 William & Mary
Sept. 12 T.C.U.
Sept. 19 @ Southern Mississippi
Oct. 3 @ North Carolina
Oct. 10 Indiana
Oct. 17 @ Maryland
Oct. 24 Georgia Tech
Oct. 31 Duke
Nov. 7 @ Miami
Nov. 14 Boston College
Nov. 21 @ Clemson
Nov. 28 Virginia Tech

Game(s) to watch: I’m looking at the period between Indiana and Miami as a big stretch for the Cavaliers. Go 4-2, and the team will likely get to .500 and reach a bowl game. Anything less, and Virginia will need to get an upset or two to improve upon last year’s finish. As always, the rivalry game with Virginia Tech is good television, though the Hokies have recently dominated the series.

Season breakdown & prediction: Virginia has been hurt by its inability over the past handful of recruiting cycles to sign and enroll top recruits, an ugly fact that is now rearing its head in the team’s lack of depth and difficulties replacing its departed starters. This is especially evident on the offensive side of the ball, where the Cavaliers have likely the A.C.C.’s worst group of skill players. Adding Brandon was a wise move by Groh, but will the former Bowling Green coach have enough weapons to work with in his first season? Defensively, the Wahoos must rebuild at linebacker, the heart of their 3-4 system. Is there any good news? Well, U.V.A. has a solid, experienced line, albeit one that lacks the star power of recent years. If Simpson is healthy, I expect an improved performance from the Virginia running game. Though linebacker is a concern, U.V.A. is strong on the line and in the secondary, where its cornerback depth is as good as any in the A.C.C. I’m not all doom and gloom for the Hoos: Groh has shown the ability to keep his teams in games with an inept offensive coordinator, so perhaps simply adding Brandon will be good enough to see the team fight for the top spot in the Coastal division. Yes, perhaps. But not likely. I see the Cavaliers repeating the 5-7 record of a season ago; if that is the case, the university may opt to go in a new direction at head coach.

Dream season: The defense is stellar and the offense not terrible. Add that together, and you have the makings of a nine-win season.

Nightmare season: Not only does the offense sputter, but the defense takes a step back. A poor offense and a bad defense? Sounds like a 4-8 season.

Where do Virginia fans congregate: For coverage of all things Virginia sports, visit TheSabre.com. For recruiting coverage, check out CavsCorner.com and HooNation.com.

Who is No. 80?: This university has a main campus roughly 65 miles west of America’s third-largest city, as well as a satellite campus in Oregon.

#80 Link

The Quad Countdown: No. 80 Northern Illinois

Location: DeKalb, Illinois.

Nickname: Huskies.

Last year’s ranking: No. 109.

What was said:

This is a senior-laden team, and if players like Nicholson and middle linebacker Tim McCarthy can stay healthy the Huskies can rebound from a poor 2007. The Huskies will again feature a healthy ground game, and Nicholson has weapons to work with in the passing game in receivers Britt Davis and Matt Simon. On defense, English, McCarthy and Kube lead a group with the potential to be one of the best in the MAC and a definite upgrade over last season. Having said that, a difficult schedule will prevent the Huskies from achieving anything beyond a two- or three-game improvement; I think Kill leads the Huskies to a 4-8 finish in beginning to build upon the work done by Novak.

Re-ranking: No. 73.

2008 record and recap: (6-7, 5-3). What a nice season for the new coach Jerry Kill and his Huskies. Beyond making a four-game improvement in the win column over 2007, Kill laid the groundwork for what should be the makings of a fun, competitive program: stout defense (more in a moment), a dedicated running game and careful ball control. If the team continues to exhibit these traits in 2009 and beyond, there is no question that the program will continue to be one of the toughest teams in the MAC. What impressed me most about the Huskies in 2008 was the fact that, barring one setback, the team was competitive in every game, even in its non-conference slate. The Huskies lost to both Minnesota and Tennessee by 4 points, and could have very easily won both affairs. Another positive? The team got better as the season wore on, as one hoped the Huskies would do in their first season under a new coaching staff. On defense, for example, N.I.U. allowed an average of 30 points per game in losing its first two, but only twice allowed more than 14 in a game the rest of the way. In my prediction for 2008, I implied that Kill would need a year or two to get the program back to its heyday under Joe Novak. I stand corrected: It took Kill roughly two weeks. Can he keep the program in annual bowl contention?

High point: Even though the game ended in a 17-10 loss to Louisiana Tech, that Northern Illinois reached the Independence Bowl was the highlight of the season. The Huskies opened up MAC play with four wins in its first five conference games, including four straight over Eastern Michigan (a 37-0 shutout), Miami, Toledo and Bowling Green. The victory over the Falcons was the team’s most impressive conference win.

Low point: The Huskies lost by a field goal to both Western and Central Michigan, the latter of which (a 33-30 loss) came in overtime. The Huskies stormed back from 30-6 third quarter deficit to tie the game at 30-30 at the end of regulation, but an interception in its first possession of overtime allowed the Chippewas to pull out the win. The only ugly defeat? A 45-14 loss to Ball State; of course, Ball State made everyone look bad in its 12-0 regular season.

Tidbit: You want to know how Northern Illinois made its way from four wins in 2007 to bowl eligibility in 2008? Want to impress your friends? Look no further than the drastic improvement of its defense, which transformed itself from one of the nation’s most inept to one of its best. The Huskies jumped from 86th nationally in scoring defense to 14th, from 97th to 17th in total defense, 51st in passing defense to 5th, 111th to 51st in rushing defense and 117th to 49th in turnover margin. An absolutely stunning turnaround, one that, as you can see above, I (kind of) predicted. The team’s improvement in scoring defense (from 30.8 points per game in 2007 to 18 in 2008) was the second-best jump in the F.B.S. Can you name which team made the biggest turnaround? The first to correctly answer the question earns the chance to write a 100-word prediction for his or her favorite university to be included in the Countdown’s larger preview. Of course, the prediction must be written in the foreign language of your choice.

Tidbit (1,000 games edition): Northern Illinois will participate in its 1,000th career game when it meets Idaho at home on Sept. 26. N.I.U. will join Miami (Ohio) and Ohio as the only MAC schools to play in 1,000 games.

Former players in the N.F.L.: 11 – TE Brad Cieslak (Cleveland Browns), WR Britt Davis (Jets), OT Ryan Diem (Indianapolis Colts), DE Larry English (San Diego Chargers), OT Doug Free (Dallas Cowboys), WR Sam Hurd (Dallas Cowboys), WR Justin McCareins (Tennessee Titans), TE Jake Nordin (Detroit Lions), WR Matt Simon (New Orleans Saints), RB Michael Turner (Atlanta Falcons), RB Garrett Wolfe (Chicago Bears).

Top five N.F.L. players from Northern Illinois: Hey, at least the Huskies have a better list than Ohio. As you can see, the program is slowly beginning to send more players to the pro ranks, so this list will likely be much better a decade from now than it is today.

1. RB Michael Turner (San Diego, Atlanta; 2004-present)
2. DE Larry Brink (Los Angeles, Chicago; 1948-54)
3. WR Justin McCareins (Jets, Tennessee; 2001-present)
4. DT Hollis Thomas (Philadelphia, New Orleans; 1996-2008)
5. OT Ryan Diem (Indianapolis; 2001-present)

Team

Conference: Mid-American, West division.

Head coach: Jerry Kill (Southwestern College ’83), 6-7 after one season with the Huskies. What a fine season it was for Kill, who propelled the Huskies to a four-game improvement over its 2-10 mark in 2007, the program’s final season under the direction of Joe Novak. As mentioned earlier, N.I.U. made significant strides on defense, improving in nearly every meaningful statistical category. The Huskies allowed only 234 points, the program’s lowest total since 1992 and a sizable (136 points) upgrade over the team’s effort in 2007. Kill also oversaw substantial progress on the offensive side of the ball, as the Huskies scored 5 more points per game (24.2, up from 19.1) than the season prior. After one season with the Huskies, it is hard to imagine the university could have hired a better fit for the program. Kill was hired by N.I.U. after seven seasons at Southern Illinois (2001-7), where he compiled a 55-32 career record. The Salukis, who reached the F.C.S. playoffs in each of his final five seasons, won three consecutive Gateway Conference championships (2003-5) and spent a total of 64 consecutive weeks ranked in the F.C.S. top 20 between 2003-7. Pretty heady stuff, especially when considering S.I.U. went 32-66 in the nine years prior to Kill’s arrival. Success wasn’t immediate for Kill either, as the team went 5-18 over his first two seasons (including a 1-10 finish in 2001). Kill was awarded for his success with the Salukis with the Eddie Robinson National Coach of the Year award in 2004 and the Liberty Mutual National Coach of the Year award in 2007. Prior to Southern Illinois, Kill served as the head coach at Emporia State (11-11 from 1999-2000) and Saginaw Valley State (38-14 from 1994-98).

Returning starters: 11 (7 offense, 4 defense).

Key losses: The conversation must start with the defensive end Larry English, whose wonderful four-year career places him firmly among the top players in school history. As a senior, English claimed his second straight Vern Smith Award, given by the MAC to honor the best player in the conference regardless of position. He was also the recipient of the MAC Defensive Player of the Year award. I’m glad his peers and the conference’s coaches and news media representatives continued to think highly about English despite his having, for him, his least productive season in 2008: 37 tackles, 16 for loss, and 8 sacks. However, the heavy attention he received from the opposition – he was, week in and week out, the focus of the opposing offensive line – had everything to do with those (by English’s lofty standards) diminished totals. For his career (49 games, 46 starts), English tallied 236 tackles (62 for loss) and 31.5 sacks; upon his graduation, he was the national leader in sacks, sack yardage (220 yards) and tackles for loss. Once or twice in a generation, a low- to mid-tier program has the luck to sign a special talent: English was that player for the Huskies. The hits keep coming for the N.I.U. defense. Along with English, the line lost his fellow end Craig Rusch (20, 2 sacks) and tackle Alex Krutsch. The pair combined to make 52 career starts. Two more starters are gone at linebacker: strongside starter Josh Allen (56 tackles, 8 for loss) and middle linebacker Tom McCarthy (61 stops), the latter a 2008 third-team all-MAC selection. McCarthy bounced back from a lost 2007 season, when he participated in only three games, to finish third on the team in tackles. McCarthy, who topped 100 stops as both a freshman (101) and a sophomore (career-high 111), finished his career in the top five in N.I.U. history with 145 assisted tackles. Finally, the Northern Illinois defense lost both its starting corners, Chase Carter and Melvin Rice. A former JUCO transfer, Carter 24 of the team’s 25 games after enrolling at N.I.U. prior to the 2007 season. The losses on offense are less severe (four starters to the defense’s seven). Most troubling is the loss of three of Northern Illinois’s top five receivers, including the leading receiver Marcus Perez (34 catches for 480 yards). Also gone are Matt Simon (24 for 377), who led the team with 52 receptions for 999 yards in 2007, and Britt Davis (14 catches for 113 yards). Up front, right tackle Jon Brost earned second-team all-MAC honors as a senior. With the graduation of right guard Dan Keller, a one-year starter on the N.I.U. front, the Huskies must replace the entire right side of its offensive line. Though quarterback Dan Nicholson lost his starting job after three early-season starts, the four-year contributor (17 career starts) concluded his career seventh in school history in passing yards (3,559 yards), eighth in attempts (527) and fifth in completions (312).

Players to watch: The Huskies should again be strong in the running game, as the team brings back three starters off its offensive line and each of its top six rushers from a season ago. Two of those three returning starters up front – the seniors Jason Onyebuagu and Eddie Adamski – earned all-MAC honors in 2008, both on the third team. In addition to that selection, Onyebuagu was named by the N.I.U. coaching staff as the team’s best offensive lineman of 2008. The sophomore Trevor Olson returns for his second season as the team’s starting left tackle. The Huskies go three deep at running back, with the sophomore Me’co Brown and the juniors Chad Spann and Ricky Crider again poised to share the load in N.I.U.’s run-heavy offense. Brown, who finished second on the team with 510 yards rushing, is an asset both in the running game and on special teams, where he led the Huskies in punt and kick return yardage. While Brown may start most games, both Spann (429 yards) and Crider (208 yards) will see their fare share of carries. Also very much in the mix is the senior Justin Anderson, who saw his production slip from 1,298 yards as a sophomore to 209 yards last fall. Returning at quarterback is the sophomore Chandler Harnish, who made nine starts there a season ago. For the year, Harnish rushed for a team-leading 539 yards and threw for 1,528 yards, giving him a Northern Illinois freshman-record 2,067 yards of total offense. Already a more than capable ball carrier on the F.B.S. level, Harnish will need some help from what is shaping up to be a questionable receiver corps if the team is to get a better effort from the passing game. My biggest concern on defense is the line, which must find three new starters and a way to replace at least some of English’s production. One thing is for sure: the Huskies won’t be able to replace English with one man, but instead with a rotation of linemen. A key player on the line is the senior end Brandon Bice, who earned third-team all-MAC honors a season ago despite making only one start. For the season, Bice had 22 tackles (12 for loss) and 6.5 sacks. He will anchor the left side of the N.I.U. line, while the leader to start in English’s open right end spot is the junior Jake Coffman (22 stops, 3 sacks), English’s understudy in 2008. The junior nose guard Mike Krause is the team’s lone returning starter up front, and will need to continue his stellar play while adopting a leadership role with a somewhat inexperienced unit. The junior Alex Kube will move from the weakside to the strongside linebacker spot to replace Josh Allen. Kube moved to linebacker last fall from strong safety, where he started nine games as a freshman. Kube led the team in 2007 with 111 tackles, becoming the first N.I.U. rookie in 31 years to pace the team in stops. The senior Cory Hanson, with 24 career starts, is an experienced replacement for Kube on the weakside. Both corners may have been lost to graduation, but the Huskies bring back three safeties with extensive game experience in the senior David Bryant (a team-leading 83 stops last fall), the junior Mike Sobol (67 tackles) and the sophomore Tracy Wilson. The favorites to start at cornerback are the juniors Kiaree Daniels and Patrick George. Daniels did not play last fall after transferring in from junior college, while George was an important part of the rotation at cornerback. George made one start a season ago.

Position battle to watch: The Huskies will need to locate new contributors at wide receiver, both to aid in Harnish’s development at quarterback and to give the team a more balanced offensive look. We all know Northern Illinois is going to run the ball to set up the pass, and typically not vice versa, but it will be crucial for the Huskies to have enough of a passing attack to keep teams from stacking the box. The team’s leading returning receiver is the senior tight end Reed Cunningham, coming off a 22-catch, 252-yard junior campaign. Cunningham also snatched three touchdown grabs, making him the team’s best receiving threat in the red zone (an area of real struggles for N.I.U. in 2008). Two other returning Huskies were meaningful contributors a season ago: the junior Landon Cox had 16 receptions for 126 yards, while the sophomore Nathan Palmer added 12 receptions for 278 yards, a superb 23.2 yards per catch average (most of that yardage came on a 91-yard touchdown grab against Minnesota). Beyond that pair, who can the Huskies rely on at wide receiver? That question may not be resolved until practice resumes in the fall – if not into the beginning of the season – but Kill and his staff hope to get an increased presence from the senior Marcus Lewis and the sophomore Willie Clark. Lewis and Clark? Maybe they’ll be able to find the end zone.

2009 schedule:
Sept. 5 @ Wisconsin
Sept. 12 Western Illinois
Sept. 19 @ Purdue
Sept. 26 Idaho
Oct. 3 Western Michigan
Oct. 17 @ Toledo
Oct. 24 @ Miami University
Oct. 31 Akron
Nov. 5 Eastern Michigan
Nov. 12 Ball State
Nov. 21 @ Ohio
Nov. 27 @ Central Michigan

Game(s) to watch: Western and Central Michigan. While I have Northern Illinois a notch below the two West division favorites, the Huskies played the pair very tight last fall, so I’m interested to see how the squads match up in 2009. I also look at the midseason three-game home-stand (Akron through Ball State) as a period where N.I.U. can go on a streak in MAC play.

Season breakdown & prediction: Despite its losses, which are very troubling on defense, I am convinced that Kill will keep this team from experiencing anything more than a subtle drop-off from its 2008 level of play. Why? Because the Huskies performed well in the areas that, traditionally, make good teams: rushing offense, ball control, special teams and defense. Is there any reason why N.I.U. would suddenly stop being productive? To play devil’s advocate, the Huskies do have issues at wide receiver, which could stunt Harnish’s development as a quarterback and allow opponents to key on the run. Even more of a concern is the defense, which lost seven starters, including one of the nation’s best. Still, talent returns on offense, which returns a young quarterback and running back combination and most of its offensive line. I expect the defense to struggle breaking in new starters, but not to slide back to its 2007 level. Over all, I predict Northern Illinois to match last fall’s 6-6 regular season, and if the defense remains strong, to make a run at seven wins.

Dream season: Kill keeps N.I.U. playing solid, hard-nosed football. Despite its losses, the Huskies go 8-4, first in the West division.

Nightmare season: More troubling than the 4-8 finish is the decline in the areas that made Northern Illinois a six-win team in 2008.

Where do Northern Illinois fans congregate: If you want to talk N.I.U. sports, you better visit The Dog Pound. For recruiting news, take a gander at HuskiePride.com, part of the Scout.com network of sites. If you like blogs, check out Red and Black Attack. You like blogs, don’t you?

Who is No. 79?: So long, 80s. And take your Teddy Ruxpin with you. Actually, give me your Teddy Ruxpin, I can’t find mine. After finishing with a losing record in 2008, this program’s career record dropped under .500 for the first time since 1914.

#79 Link

The Quad Countdown: No. 79 Baylor

Location: Waco, Texas.

Nickname: Bears.

Last year’s ranking: No. 112.

What was said:

Baylor fans should be overjoyed about landing Art Briles, a terrific offensive coach and a sizable upgrade over his predecessor Guy Morris. Unfortunately, 2008 seems to be a building year for Briles and the Bears, and I don’t see a game on the schedule (outside of Northwestern State) where Baylor seems to have the advantage, though there are a number of games where a loss seems guaranteed. Seems unfair that Baylor, struggling for more than a decade and in the midst of a coaching change, would have one of the toughest schedules in the nation. While fans should be keyed up about the future of the program because of Briles and youngsters like Griffin, Finley and the trio of linebackers, expect them to do no better than matching last year’s 3-9 record.

Re-ranking: No. 83.

2008 record and recap: (4-8, 2-6). The 2008 Baylor Bears: Proof positive that a 4-8 finish can, in fact, be cause for celebration. How is that possible? Because this was likely the most entertaining and most competitive Baylor team in years, one that with every passing week gave fans more and more reason to be excited about the future of the program. All it took was a coaching change, though unlike Baylor’s recent personnel decisions (four different coaches in the last decade), the program has undoubtedly found the right man in Art Briles. Oh, a coaching change and the arrival of the sensational rising sophomore Robert Griffin III, likely the program’s most dynamic, exciting offensive player since Don Trull won back-to-back Sammy Baugh Trophies in the early 1960s. Not that Baylor is there yet: the team still lost six games in conference play last fall, four by double digits. On offense, the pieces may be slowly coming into place, but Baylor still struggled against premier competition, scoring 21 points or less against Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Nebraska and Texas. The defense was better, allowing a season total of less than 355 points for only the second time this decade, but must have a better showing against the pass, especially in the high-octane Big 12. No one is expecting any miracles – as in a Big 12 title – but after last season, it seems we are all entering a new era of Baylor football. Are you ready?

High point: Without question, Baylor’s 41-21 mauling of Texas A&M on Nov. 15. The Bears outgained A&M by 510 yards (269 rushing) to 208, forced five turnovers and led 41-7 at the end of three quarters. Yes, it could have been worse. It was with that win that Baylor sent a message to the rest of the Big 12: we are no longer your doormat. While B.U. went 0-6 against top 25 competition, it played both Missouri (by 31-28) and Texas Tech (by 35-28) tough in the season’s final month, indicating how far the team came as the season progressed.

Low point: With that said, Baylor’s performances against premier conference foes left much to be desired. Even when including the narrow defeats to Missouri and Tech, Baylor averaged a disappointing final score of roughly 38-20 against that pair, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Nebraska and Texas. Those are the big boys of the Big 12; if Baylor is to return to bowl play, it will need to get at least two wins a season against favored opponents.

Tidbit: Baylor returns 18 starters in 2009, the program’s most since returning the same number in 1979. That team went from 3-8 in 1978 to 8-4. Will the current team make a similar jump? In all, Baylor returns 91.2 percent of its total offense from 2008 (96.4 percent of its passing offense, 85.2 of its rushing offense) and 79.3 percent of its total tackles.

Tidbit (Big 12 edition): Since the birth of the Big 12 in 1996, Baylor has gone a combined 4-61 against its South division brethren. The program is 0-13 against Oklahoma and Texas Tech, 1-12 against Oklahoma State and Texas and 2-11 against Texas A&M. Baylor’s better against the North division: a combined 9-30, though 0-7 against both Nebraska and Missouri.

Former players in the N.F.L.: 12 – LB Colin Allred (Tennessee Titans), CB Josh Bell (Denver Broncos), K Matt Bryant (Tampa Bay Buccaneers), RB Jonathan Evans (Washington Redskins), OT Dan Gay (San Diego Chargers), OT Fred Miller (Chicago Bears), P Daniel Sepulveda (Pittsburgh Steelers), WR Trent Shelton (Washington Redskins), OT Jason Smith (St. Louis Rams), TE Justin Snow (Indianapolis Colts), CB C.J. Wilson (Carolina Panthers), WR Dominique Zeigler (San Francisco 49ers).

Top five N.F.L. players from Baylor: Nice job, Baylor! Singletary is obviously the best the program has to offer, but he is followed by four multiple-time Pro Bowlers. Two of those four – Shofner and Smith – have valid cases for the Hall of Fame. Did I miss anyone? My toughest pick was Hank Gremminger at No. 5 over defensive end Bill Glass, who also played in a pair of Pro Bowls. Any disagreements?

1. LB Mike Singletary (Chicago; 1981-92)
2. WR Del Shofner (Los Angeles, Giants; 1957-67)
3. OT Jim Ray Smith (Cleveland, Dallas; 1956-64)
4. CB Gary Green (Kansas City, Los Angeles; 1977-85)
5. CB Hank Gremminger (Green Bay, Los Angeles; 1955-66)

Team

Conference: Big 12, South division.

Head coach: Art Briles (Texas Tech ’79), 4-8 after one season with the Bears. Though not necessarily impressive in the win column, last fall saw Baylor begin the process of reinventing itself as a bona-fide bowl contender. Sound easy? Not quite: Baylor has so long been one of the Big 12 also-rans that such a transition entails not only rehabbing an entire roster but also the psyche of an entire program. Last season was a good start. The Bears scored 336 points (28 points per game), their most since scoring 362 in 1994, and made great strides as a team despite playing a schedule that featured six top 25 opponents, three of whom were in the top 10. The program’s overall improvement has already been felt on the recruiting trail, as Briles has hauled in two of the most impressive Baylor recruiting classes in recent memory. One signing in particular, the quarterback Robert Griffin III, allowed Briles to immediately implement his innovative spread offense. Does the offense work? Look no further than Briles’s success at Houston as evidence. With the Cougars, Briles inherited a program two years removed from an 0-11 season and went 34-28 over five seasons (2003-7), making four bowl appearances. In 2003, Briles led the team to a 7-6 finish with a trip to the Hawaii Bowl, making him only the second coach in school history to reach postseason play in his first season at the school. After going a combined 9-14 from 2004-5, Briles went 10-4 in 2006 and 8-4 in 2007, again leading the Cougars to bowl play. In 2006, Briles won the Conference USA championship, the program’s first outright conference title of any kind since 1978. Prior to being hired at Houston, Briles spent three seasons as the running backs coach at Texas Tech (2000-2) under Mike Leach, who obviously played an important role in shaping Briles’s offensive philosophy. Briles also spent 12 highly successful seasons as the head coach at Stephenville High School in Texas (the alma mater of Kevin Kolb, his record-setting quarterback at Houston), where he won a pair of back-to-back Texas state championships in 1993-4 and 1998-99. His prep experience has paid enormous dividends in recruiting, as Briles remains a popular and respected figure among the all-important Texas high school coaching ranks.

Tidbit (recruiting edition): Let’s talk turkey, my friends. College coaches make their money with stellar recruiting, and Baylor’s last two classes have been its best this decade. According to Rivals.com, Briles has signed four four-star prospects since taking over at Baylor in late November 2007 (one of those was Griffin). In comparison, the Bears signed only three four-stars from 2002-7. Yes, recruiting is an inexact science (for example, Baylor’s all-American left tackle Jason Smith was a two-star coming out high school), but it is clear that Briles has ramped up Baylor’s recruiting to become somewhat competitive with the rest of the Big 12. Scheme can get only get you so far; you need horses.

Returning starters: 18 (9 offense, 9 defense).

Key losses: The Bears lost four starters, two each on the offensive and defensive lines. Most noteworthy, of course, is the tight end-turned-franchise left tackle Jason Smith, a first-team all-American as a senior. Smith arrived on campus in 2004 as a 220-pound, lightly-noticed tight end. He actually started eight games there as a redshirt freshman (making 6 receptions for 80 yards and a score) before being moved to right tackle as a sophomore. Despite his lack of size – even now, it’s hard to imagine Smith weighing more than 315 pounds – Smith played admirably at right tackle, though the coaching staff must have known his athleticism would be best served on the left side. Smith excelled upon his move there for the 2007 season, earning honorable mention all-Big 12 honors and making him a name to watch last fall. He didn’t disappoint: Smith was named a first-team all-American by the Football Writers Association of American and a third-team member by The Associated Press, making him the first Baylor non-special teamer to earn all-American accolades since 1995. Smith went second over all in April’s draft (to St. Louis), making him the first Baylor player since Daryl Gardener in 1996 to be taken in the first round. Right tackle Dan Gay, another linemen who made an early position change (from defensive tackle prior to his sophomore year), was an all-Big 12 honorable mention as a junior and senior. Gay made 33 career starts. On defense, the Bears must replace Vincent Rhodes at tackle and Leon Freeman at end. Freeman, a JUCO transfer in 2007, had a combined 18.5 tackles for loss and 7 sacks in his two seasons with the Bears. He led the team in tackle for loss both seasons (9.5 in 2007, 9 last fall). The only other contributor to exhaust his eligibility was the cornerback Dwain Crawford, who finished third on the team with two interceptions. Crawford started the first seven games of 2008, giving him 28 career starts. He was an honorable mention all-conference pick in 2006, when he notched career highs in tackles (55) and interceptions (3).

Players to watch: One could say that Robert Griffin III, the sensational sophomore quarterback, is a talented sprinter playing football. That would be fair: After enrolling at B.U. in the spring of 2008, Griffin was a N.C.A.A. track and field all-American and the Big 12 400-meter hurdles champion (49.22 seconds). But such a statement doesn’t do his immense talent on the gridiron justice. His freshman season was nothing short of sensational: 2,091 yards passing, 843 yards rushing and a school-record 28 total touchdowns, all while throwing only 3 interceptions. Griffin III opened his college career with an F.B.S.-record 209 attempts without an interception, and finished the season with only those three picks in 267 attempts. Though he had his rough games, as you’d expect of any rookie starting in the Big 12 (11 of 27 vs. Oklahoma, 6 of 19 against Texas), he also had games that made you stand up and take notice: 21 of 24 for 278 yards and 3 scores against Iowa State, when the Cyclones took away his running ability; 26 of 35 for 283 yards against Missouri; and a 225-yard, 2-touchdown rushing performance against Washington State, where he set a school and Big 12 record with a 19.7 yards per carry average. The sky is the limit for the sophomore; another young quarterback, Ohio State’s Terrelle Pryor, may get the headlines, but I’d take Griffin every day of the week. He’ll have weapons to work with on offense. Sharing the load in the run game is the junior Jay Finely, who lead the team last fall with 865 yards rushing. Finley added 141 yards receiving and 9 touchdowns, second on the team. A name to watch at running back is the sophomore Terrance Ganaway, who transferred from Houston to reunite with Briles, his former coach. Another rookie to make a splash in 2008 was receiver Kendall Wright, who led the team in receptions (50), receiving yards (649) and receiving touchdowns (5). It will be fun to see Wright and Griffin continue to develop a rapport in the passing game over the next two or three seasons (hopefully for Baylor fans, three). I am also expecting a big senior season from David Gettis (29 catches for 391 yards in 2008), a receiver with tremendous speed. He could be a deep threat in this offense. Two stars headline the Baylor defense. At middle linebacker, the senior all-American Joe Pawelek ranked seventh nationally in tackles (10.7) and interceptions (0.5) per game, and was the only player in the F.B.S. to rank in the top 10 in both categories. The undisputed leader of the defense, Pawelek enters his final season with 313 career tackles (three shy of the school’s top-10 list), 18.5 tackles for loss and 8 interceptions. At free safety, the senior Jordan Lake was a 2008 first-team all-Big 12 selection after posting 97 tackles and 3 picks. That gives Lake 217 stops and 5 interceptions over the last two seasons. He is the star of a secondary that brings back three corners with starting experience (Trentson Hill, Antareis Bryan and Tim Atchison) and his fellow starting safety Jeremy Williams (54 tackles, 5.5 for loss). But with Pawelek leading the way, the strength of the B.U. defense is the linebacker corps. Joining the all-American in the middle are starters Antonio Jones (71 tackles, 3 sacks) and Antonio Johnson (72 tackles, 1 sack, 1 interception), and the key backups Earl Patin (the favorite to replace Pawelek in 2010) and Chris Francis.

Position battle to watch: With so few losses, Baylor does not have many battles currently brewing. One area, of course, that will get a good amount of attention is the offensive line. This is mostly because of Smith’s graduation, but don’t forget that the Bears must also replace Dan Gay, a three-year starter on the right side. The team seems to have found its replacement for Smith on the blindside in the JUCO transfer Danny Watkins, who enrolled early and participated in spring practice. Coming in early was big for Watkins, who faces a very daunting task. The situation at right tackle is less clear, where three players – the redshirt freshman Cameron Kaufhold and the juniors Chris Griesenbeck and Marquis Franklin – are battling for the starting nod. Kaufhold held the starting spot at the end of spring ball, but I would expect this competition to continue when practice resumes in the fall. Not that the story up front is all bad: Baylor brings back a pair of honorable mention all-Big 12 performers in the seniors J.D. Walton (a member of the preliminary Rimington Trophy watch list at center) and James Barnard (right guard) and another senior starter in left guard Jordan Hearvey. Hearvey missed spring ball due to a knee injury, but the staff hopes to get him back in time for the season opener.

2009 schedule:
Sept. 5 @ Wake Forest
Sept. 12 Connecticut
Sept. 26 Northwestern State
Oct. 3 Kent State
Oct. 10 @ Oklahoma
Oct. 17 @ Iowa State
Oct. 24 Oklahoma State
Oct. 31 Nebraska
Nov. 7 @ Missouri
Nov. 14 Texas
Nov. 21 @ Texas A&M
Nov. 28 Texas Tech

Game (s) to watch: Iowa State, Missouri and Texas A&M. Take those three, and you’re on the cusp of bowl eligibility.

Season breakdown & prediction: Yeah, I’ve got Baylor tied with Texas A&M for fifth in the Big 12 South and 10th in the Big 12 over all. Are Baylor fans going to be happy with that? No, probably not. Despite winning only four games last fall, the Baylor fan base is beyond optimistic for the potential of this year’s team, and anything less than a bowl trip may be considered a disappointment. Fair? Oh, definitely not. But thanks to Briles, and his achievement reversing Baylor’s losing culture, optimism clearly rules the day. And there is reason to be excited: B.U. has a wonderful coach, a future Heisman contender in Griffin and two potential all-Americans on its defense in Pawelek and Lake, though the entire defense is not yet up to par. Can the Bears get to six wins? Yes, but it will be close. To do so, there is no doubt Baylor needs to enter Big 12 play at 3-1, meaning it will need to take one of Wake Forest and Connecticut. Doable. That would leave the Bears needing a 3-5 finish in Big 12 play, something the program has done only once. Briles could coach my team any day, and Griffin is must-see television … but I’ve got the Bears at 5-7, 2-6 in the Big 12, just shy of bowl eligibility. I’m just concerned where the team – while not your Baylor squad of old – is going to get three Big 12 wins. Iowa State is one, but where else? Nebraska at home? Not going to happen. Missouri on the road? Perhaps. A&M on the road? Baylor won last year, no reason to think it can’t win again. A 5-7 finish, with most of the offense slated to be back in 2010 and another stellar recruiting class on the way, should not be viewed as a failure.

Dream season: Baylor returns to bowl play with an 8-4 regular season, highlighted by wins over Nebraska, A&M and Texas Tech in Big 12 play.

Nightmare season: Expectations have been raised, so a 3-9 finish would be upsetting to a large portion of the Baylor fan base.

Where do Baylor fans congregate: Nothing but love for those smaller independent sites, so be sure to take a trip to BaylorFans.com, where you can find chatter on Baylor football, basketball and baseball. For recruiting information, take a look at SicEmSports.com and BearsIllustrated.com. For a blog’s take, I guess you could check out The Bear Blog from The Waco Tribune-Herald, though I am troubled by the blog’s lack of new posts since May 31. You could just get your Baylor news from the Quad, I guess.

Who is No. 78?: Due to financial constraints, this university suspended its football program from 1970-76.

(06-14-2009 06:58 PM)NCowl Wrote:  Who is No. 78?: Due to financial constraints, this university suspended its football program from 1970-76.

took a little digging, but Buffalo.

#78

The Quad Countdown: No. 78 Buffalo

Location: Buffalo

Nickname: Bulls. If the Bills play in Buffalo, do the Bulls play in Biffalo? And I’ll be here all week. Actually, I’ll be here every day until Sept. 3.

Last year’s ranking: No. 88.

What was said:

For the first time on the F.B.S. level, the Bulls find themselves in position to challenge for a MAC title. This is because of the coaching and leadership of Gill, who has turned around a failing program in an extremely short time. With 18 returning starters, there is reason to believe the Bulls should improve on last fall’s 5-3 MAC record. But while Ball State falls off the docket, Buffalo adds Central and Western Michigan, two teams more talented in 2008 than the Bulls. With at least two losses coming out of conference, if the Bulls repeat last year’s conference mark they’ll be hovering around the .500 mark. Regardless of how 2008 turns out, it is obvious that Gill has Buffalo headed in the right direction, and fans should expect good things from the program in the near future.
Re-ranking: No. 64.

2008 record and recap: (8-6, 5-3). Two wins in 2006, five in 2007 and eight last fall. One would say Buffalo is ahead of schedule, except few thought the Bulls would ever win a conference championship, as it did last fall in Turner Gill’s third season with the program. Merely becoming more competitive was the goal, so let’s put last fall’s 8-6 finish into perspective. Among Buffalo’s F.B.S. firsts? First division championship. First conference championship. Most wins (eight). Most points (424). First time with a positive point differential (424 points scored to 395 allowed). Buffalo’s 2-1 mark through three games was its first time above .500 since being 1-0 in 2006, and only the second time it has been above .500 since 1998. In its first nine years as a member of the F.B.S. (1999-2007), Buffalo went a combined 17-86, only twice topping two wins (2001 and 2007). How could anyone have seen last fall coming? More important, after winning three games in overtime last fall, can the Bulls recapture the magic to make another run in 2009? In Buffalo’s favor: Turner Gill, terrific playmakers on offense and eight returning starters on defense. What it will have to overcome? The loss of quarterback Drew Willy, the best signal caller in team history, and three linemen off the offensive front.

High point: I don’t think it’s an overstatement to say the 42-24 win over Ball State in the MAC championship game was the program’s biggest win. Any disagreements from the Buffalo fan base? The Bulls won five straight games from Oct. 18 to Nov. 21, the final four of which came in MAC play. The Bulls lost to Kent State in the season finale, but had sewn up the East division and a berth in the conference title game. The Bulls lost to Connecticut by 38-20 in the International Bowl, but the loss did nothing to diminish from a historic season.

Low point: Narrow losses that ultimately had no bearing on Buffalo’s finish: by 27-25 to Central Michigan, by 34-28 in overtime to Western Michigan (these defeats came in consecutive weeks) and by 24-21 to Kent State in the regular-season finale. If my math is correct, Buffalo’s three MAC losses came by a combined 11 points.

Tidbit: While Buffalo’s first eight games of 2009 will be played on the traditional Saturday, its final four games of the season will be played on a Tuesday (twice), a Wednesday and a Friday. Good thing or bad thing? Two arguments for good. One, the Bulls do not have a short week between their last Saturday game and their first weekday game. U.B. goes to Western Michigan on Saturday, Oct. 24, and then get Bowling Green at home on Tuesday, Nov. 3. That gives the Bulls a few extra days to prepare for the Falcons, a good thing. Two, each of those final four games will be shown nationally on ESPN, a big plus for a program that despite last fall’s success, still needs some national recognition. The drawback? Productivity in Buffalo on the weekday mornings after a Bulls night game is sure to suffer.

Tidbit (winning streak edition): Why was Buffalo’s five-game win streak notable? In its 95 years of college football, Buffalo has won more than five games in a season 19 times. Only once since 1987 had the Bulls won more than five games in a season (8-3 in 1996). You want to know how many times Buffalo has won five straight in a season? Try 11 times: 1896-99, 1918, 1947-48, 1958-59, 1986 and 2008. The longest win streaks were eight straight victories in 1896 and 1897.

Former players in the N.F.L.: 3 – C Jamey Richard (Indianapolis Colts), DT Trevor Scott (Oakland Raiders), QB Drew Willy (Baltimore Ravens).

Top five N.F.L. players from Buffalo: Only 12 former Bulls have played a down in the N.F.L., making my job a little easier. Yeah, this list is worse than Ohio’s. But Buffalo’s best player, the former Jet Gerry Philbin, is better than Ohio’s best, Vince Costello. Take that, Bobcats. I feel confident in saying Buffalo will be the only school with one rookie among its top five N.F.L. alumni, let alone two.

1. DE Gerry Philbin (Jets, Philadelphia; 1964-72)
2. QB John Stofa (Miami, Cincinnati; 1966-70)
3. OT Ed Ellis (N. England, Washington, San Diego; 1997-2003)
4. DE Trevor Scott (Oakland; 2008-present)
5. C Jamey Richard (Indianapolis; 2008-present)

Team

Conference: Mid-American, East division.

Head coach: Turner Gill (North Texas ’90), 15-23 after three seasons with the Bulls. The past three years have seen Gill lead U.B. from a 2-10 mark in 2006, his debut season, to 5-7 in 2007 — with a share of the East division title — to last fall’s 8-6 finish, which included the outright East and MAC championship. This turnaround has been nothing short of extraordinary. Offensively, the Bulls have improved their scoring average from 18.3 points a game in 2006 to 27.6 in 2007 to 30.3 a season ago, when Buffalo set a school record with 424 total points. On defense, U.B. has gone from allowing opponents to score 35.9 points per game in 2006 to allowing 28.2 last fall. While not a momentous upgrade, it does signify how much more competitive U.B. has become in MAC play over the past handful of seasons. Buffalo’s play has earned Gill well-deserved national attention, and has made his name a popular one for B.C.S.-conference job openings. Two years ago, Gill was heavily connected to the open Nebraska job, and was one of the two finalists to replace Bill Callahan. After last season’s performance, Gill was connected to job openings at Syracuse, Auburn, Mississippi State and Iowa State. It remains unknown how far Gill progressed in those programs’ interview processes, but it is clear that Gill may not be long for the Buffalo program. Of course, it is hard to speak of Turner Gill without mentioning his long connection to Nebraska, which undoubtedly helped raise his chances at the open head coaching spot in 2007; that his mentor, Tom Osborne, was Nebraska’s recently hired athletic director also didn’t hurt. Gill was first a tremendous quarterback for the Huskers from 1981-83, leading Nebraska to a 28-2 record and three consecutive top-five finishes. After his playing career ended, a one-year stint as the receivers coach at S.M.U. led Gill back to Lincoln, where he coached the quarterbacks from 1992 to 2002, was the assistant head coach in 2003 and coached the receivers in 2004. Gill was part of three national-championship-winning teams with the Huskers (1994-95, 1997) and coached a Heisman Trophy winner in Eric Crouch and a Heisman finalist in Tommie Frazier. His experience under Osborne, whose stoic, calm demeanor Gill inherited, has served him well at Buffalo.

Returning starters: 13 (5 offense, 8 defense).

Key losses: The biggest is obviously Drew Willy, a four-year starter at quarterback who was the main force behind the program’s resurgence on offense under Gill. Willy concluded his Buffalo career as the school’s career leader in completions (849), attempts (1,321), passing yards (8,748), touchdowns (52) and completion percentage (64.3). It’s obviously not a stretch to call him the best quarterback in school history. The team made dramatic improvement over the last two seasons, as did Willy: as a freshman and sophomore, he combined to throw for 2,872 yards and 12 touchdowns against 18 interceptions; over his final two seasons, Willy tossed for 5,876 yards and 40 touchdowns with only 12 interceptions (six each season). As a senior, he set school records for yards (3,304) and touchdowns (25), while as a junior he set a school record for completion percentage (an outstanding 68.4). No one will be as difficult to replace. Three starters must be replaced up front: center Chris Lauzze, guard Jeff Niedermier and tackle Ray Norrell. Niedermier earned all-MAC honors as a senior, making him the most decorated of the group. The former walk-on Lauzze did a good job stepping in at center for Jamey Richard after serving as the backup at center in 2007. Norell made 37 career starts for the Bulls, 30 at left tackle. The lone meaningful offensive skill player (besides Willy) lost to graduation was wide receiver Ernest Jackson, who finished third on the team in receptions (45) and second in receiving yards (507) as a senior. He had 98 receptions for 1,152 yards and 10 touchdowns over his junior and senior seasons. Like on offense, the Bulls defense must replace three starters up front. At end, both Mike Thompson and Andrae Smith were solid in their first years in the starting lineup. Both tied for the team lead with three sacks, while Thompson led all linemen with 38 tackles and led the team with 10.5 tackles for loss. Smith started every game for the Bulls after missing all of 2004 and 2006-7 because of injuries. At tackle, Ron Hilaire added 20 tackles, 2 of which came for loss.

Players to watch: Yes, losing Willy is a concern, but the team returns the glue of the offense in the running back James Starks, the only player in Buffalo’s F.B.S. history to notch a 1,000-yard season. He enters his senior season with two consecutive 1,000-yard campaigns, including a career-high 1,333-yard finish in 2008. Starks reached that lofty total despite missing all or parts of three games. He had at least 94 yards in eight of the 11 games in which he was fully healthy, including a 179-yard performance against UTEP, 185 yards against Ohio and 177 against Miami. Starks is also an extremely valuable weapon in the passing game, as the senior finished second on the team with 52 grabs; he enters 2009 with 127 career receptions. A second option in the ground game is Brandon Thermilus (454 yards, 7 scores), whose solid play when Starks was down to injury made him an invaluable part of the Buffalo offense. Starks is the first potential all-American on the Buffalo offense. The second is the senior receiver Naaman Roosevelt, who demolished school records with 104 receptions, 1,402 receiving yards and 13 touchdowns in 2008. He came on strong down the stretch, averaging 9 receptions for nearly 118 yards over the team’s final six games. As a sophomore, Roosevelt snatched 63 receptions for 766 yards. Doing the dirty work in the passing game is the senior Brett Hamlin (38 receptions for 459 yards and 5 scores), a sure-handed wideout never afraid to go over the middle and make plays in traffic. The senior Jesse Rack is a more than capable tight end in both the receiving game (21 for 205 yards) and in the run game as a blocker. To whom will the unenviable task of replacing Willy fall? The sophomore quarterback Zack Maynard, the backup last fall, takes over under center after participating in eight games as a true freshman in 2008. While Maynard did not do enough in the passing game on which to judge his future abilities (only one attempt), he is a talented runner who will give that added dimension to an already dangerous offense. With these weapons to work with, Maynard should be fine. Having Gill as a tutor certainly helps. The defensive line should see a number of new faces in the starting lineup. The lone returning starter is the junior tackle Anel Montanez (28 tackles, 6.5 for loss), but the interior returns off-and-on starter Dane Robinson — injuries were a concern in 2008 — and the promising sophomore Richie Smith, who added 17 tackles and a sack as a rookie. Three Bulls with game experience — the sophomore Gordon DuBois and the juniors Jerry Housey and Bruno LaPointe — are the favorites to step in at end, but they will be pushed by as many as five freshmen primed to step into the rotation. Depth will not be a concern on the line, though finding players to fill starting roles might. It’s the only part of the defense with any cause for concern, as the Bulls return all seven of their starters at linebacker and in the secondary. The leader at linebacker is the junior Justin Winters, whose team-leading 125 tackles (7.5 for loss) earned him a spot on the all-MAC third team. It was a breakout first season in the starting lineup for Winters, and even bigger things are expected from him over the next two seasons. He is joined at linebacker by fellow juniors Raphael Akobundu (71 stops, fifth on the team) and Tom Drewes and the sophomore Scott Pettigrew. Drewes (19 stops) and Pettigrew (42) split time last fall. Adding depth to this group is the sophomore John Syty, who led all linebackers with two interceptions in 2008. A very solid group, one that should be even better with a year’s experience under its belt. Likewise in the secondary, which returns its starting cornerbacks in Domonic Cook (76 tackles, a team-best 3 interceptions), Josh Thomas and Kendric Hawkins. Thomas stepped in for an injured Hawkins — who, when healthy, is extremely productive — and started most of the second half of the season; he’s the Bull who knocked the ball loose from Ball State’s Nate Davis near U.B.’s end zone to turn the MAC championship game around in Buffalo’s favor. Recovering that fumble and taking it 92 yards the other way was the senior safety Mike Newton, the leader of the Buffalo defense. Newton earned second-team all-MAC honors last fall, when he finished with 112 stops, 5.5 for loss. He enters his fourth season as a starter with 10 career interceptions (nine from 2006-7), a top-10 total in school history. His counterpart, the junior Davonte Shannon, is right alongside Toledo’s Barry Church and Kent State’s Brian Lainhart as the best safety in the MAC. A two-time all-conference first-team selection — the only two-time pick in school history — Shannon finished the 2008 season second on the team in tackles with 121 (6 for loss). He teams with Newton to give Buffalo perhaps the most talented safety combination of any non-B.C.S.-conference program.

Position battle to watch: I’ve got my eye on the offensive line. A pair of starters return, the junior left guard Peter Bittner and the senior right tackle Andrew West, but three positions are up for grabs. In the mix at left tackle are the junior Brian Kelly, the redshirt freshman Jose Cortes and the sophomore Matt Ostrowski. Kelly has the most experience, but the favorite to take over for Norrell is Ostrowski, who had a very strong spring. Remember: Maynard is a lefty, so his blindside now becomes right tackle, which West has anchored down. Niedermier was very good as a senior, so replacing him may be the toughest obstacle Buffalo faces on its offensive front. Can the junior Robert Colpoys take over? The sophomore Josh Violanti and the senior Matt Bacoulis are battling for the center spot. Both could see time in the fall, though Bacoulis has a definite edge in the size department, as the senior outweighs the 260-pound Violanti by at least 50 pounds. Good news last fall, but bad news for the incoming starters in 2009: the Buffalo starting five offensive linemen from a season ago started all 14 games at their respective positions, giving little meaningful playing time to the players battling to replace them next season.

2009 schedule:
Sept. 5 @ UTEP
Sept. 12 Pittsburgh
Sept. 19 @ U.C.F.
Sept. 26 @ Temple
Oct. 3 Central Michigan
Oct. 10 Gardner Webb
Oct. 17 Akron
Oct. 24 @ Western Michigan
Nov. 3 Bowling Green
Nov. 10 Ohio
Nov. 18 @ Miami University
Nov. 27 @ Kent State

Game(s) to watch: At Temple on Sept. 26. Just by following the Countdown (it’s fine if you haven’t, no pressure) you can see that I have Buffalo and Temple at the top of the East division. The winner of that game has the all-important tie breaker in the division race.

Season breakdown & prediction: Of course, it would be easy to write off Buffalo’s strong finish last fall as a flash in the pan, and predict the Bulls to slide back off the MAC map. Losing Willy, though I hate to harp on it, could be used as reason enough for Buffalo to finish in the second half of the East division. It would be easy, but I believe it would be incorrect. Yes, losing the best quarterback in school history will be difficult, but I am confident that Gill — who knows a thing or two about quarterbacks — will put Maynard in the position to succeed. He has potential all-American weapons to work with Starks and Roosevelt, leading me to believe that if Maynard can merely protect the ball while making plays outside the pocket, the Bulls will not suffer a significant decrease in offensive effectiveness. Enough of the defense returns, including the potentially game-changing secondary, for me to expect an improvement on this side of the ball, especially given how few explosive offenses the Bulls are scheduled to face in 2009. Above all else, there’s Turner Gill. Yes, MAC fans outside Buffalo complain that the national media give Gill too much attention, that he’s an overrated coach due to come down to earth. I agree that Gill seems to get more airtime than the rest of the MAC coaching fraternity, but disagree that his star is likely to cease its rise any time this fall. Like I said last fall, Gill is the best thing to happen to Buffalo football in generations, and as long as he continues to roam the sideline I’ll continue to believe the Bulls worthy of MAC title consideration. This fall, I predict the Bulls to reach bowl eligibility for the second straight season, but to finish second to a talented Temple team in the East. Buffalo has come a long way.

Dream season: Buffalo repeats as East division and MAC champs. Gill turns down all offers from B.C.S.-conference programs and returns to Buffalo.

Nightmare season: The Bulls cannot recapture the magic of last season’s narrow victories. U.B. slips to 4-8, 3-5 in the MAC.

Where do Buffalo fans congregate? The clear top choice is UBFan.com. For recruiting news, you could try BuffaloInsiders.com, though you’re not going to find very much chatter over there.

Who is No. 77?: The only program in the F.B.S. with an equal number of wins and losses.

(06-15-2009 01:14 PM)NCowl Wrote:  Who is No. 77?: The only program in the F.B.S. with an equal number of wins and losses.

The Sun Belt's own FAU.

Article Link #77 FAU

The Quad Countdown: No. 77 Florida Atlantic

Location: Boca Raton, Fla. Nearly 20 percent of all resident of Boca Raton are over the age of 65, including Florida Atlantic’s coach, Howard Schnellenberger.

Nickname: Owls.

Last year’s ranking: No. 68.

What was said:

The Owls are the most talented team in the Sun Belt, and if they can get similar production from Smith and the rest of the offense are the favorites to repeat as conference champs. It is likely that the offense will actually get better in 2008 – 10 returning starters will do that – so the only question mark for the Owls will be their defense. Looking at their talent, I find it hard to believe they were as sub par as they were in 2007; a marginal improvement seems almost guaranteed due to added experience. While a difficult non-conference schedule may keep F.A.U. from improving upon last fall’s 8-5 mark, I predict a second-straight Sun Belt crown – another step forward for a program on the fast track to conference supremacy.
Re-ranking: No. 65.

2008 record and recap: (7-6, 4-3). Florida Atlantic might not have repeated as Sun Belt champs as I predicted, but the Owls did reach and win their second consecutive bowl game, quite a feat for this young program. In conference play, an early loss to Troy – the game I pointed to as the biggest of the conference season – did irreparable damage to Florida Atlantic’s title hopes. The Owls also lost on the road to both Middle Tennessee State and Arkansas State but defeated Louisiana-Lafayette, leaving them 1-3 on the year against the best the conference had to offer. The losses to Troy and Middle Tennessee put F.A.U. at 1-5, with the only win coming over U.A.B. in non-conference play. At that point, it seemed that the Owls were a one-year wonder. But the team made hay against the weaker half of the Sun Belt, which allowed it to reverse its horrid start to finish the regular season 6-6. All told, this Owls team was less impressive than its 2007 version, which beat Middle Tennessee, Troy and Arkansas State in the Sun Belt and upset Minnesota (a weak Gopher team, to be fair) in non-conference play. What changed? The defense made an all-important jump in scoring, allowing 59 less points than the season prior and playing very well against conference opposition. Strangely, the F.A.U. offense did take a moderate step back in 2008 from its breakthrough 2007 season, scoring nearly a touchdown less per game (from 31.2 in 2007 to 25.1 last fall). The offense gets back some key contributors from injuries this fall, but the defense lost eight starters. Can the Owls sneak past Troy and reclaim the top spot in the Sun Belt?

High point: The Owls won five of its last six to get back to bowl play. Four of those five wins came against conference foes; a fifth came against Western Kentucky, a program due to enter the Sun Belt full time in 2009. Entering the season’s final week, F.A.U. needed a win over its rival Florida International to become bowl eligible: It took an extra frame, but the Owls topped F.I.U. by 57-50 to win its third straight Shula Bowl.

Low point: Losses to its three most talented Sun Belt brethren: by 14-13 to Middle Tennessee State (the Blue Raiders scored with no time remaining to upset the Owls), by 30-17 to Troy and by 28-14 to Arkansas State. Florida Atlantic’s three B.C.S.-conference opponents – Texas, Michigan State and Minnesota – combined to outscore the Owls by 106-13. The program’s not there yet, obviously.

Tidbit: Howard Schnellenberger is entering his ninth year as Florida Atlantic’s coach. Of course, Schnellenberger is the first and only coach in the history of the program. Only three current F.B.S. programs had its original coach serve for a longer period of time. Can you name the three programs? The first to correctly answer the question earns the prize of writing a 100-word prediction for his or her favorite team, which the Countdown will include the team’s larger preview. As always, it must be written in a foreign language. If you can also name the three coaches, your word count gets bumped up to 200.

Former players in the N.F.L.: 2 – DT Jervonte Jackson (Philadelphia Eagles), LB Frantz Joseph (Oakland Raiders).

Top five alumni from Boca Raton, Florida: The Countdown gives Florida Atlantic a pass for its N.F.L. alumni, as the program was only founded in 2001. No Owl has ever played a down in the N.F.L., though Jackson and Joseph, two recent graduates, are currently trying to make pro rosters. Instead, the Countdown gives you the five most memorable people to ever live in Boca Raton. Enjoy.

1. Paul Newman.
2. The former United States Open champion Andy Roddick.
3. The hirsute disgraced hit king Pete Rose.
4. The eight-time Pro Bowl receiver Cris Carter.
5. NASCAR’s Jeff Gordon.

Team

Conference: Sun Belt.

Head coach: Howard Schnellenberger (’56 Kentucky), the first and only head coach in F.A.U. history and the 2007 Sun Belt coach of the year. Schnellenberger, 48-48 with the Owls, had been out of football for three years when he was approached by F.A.U. in 1998 with a peculiar opportunity: build a football program from the ground up. The choice seemed odd at the time. Schnellenberger was 64 when hired, seemingly too old to take on such an endeavor, and hadn’t stalked the sidelines since 1995. But Schnellenberger’s hiring has been an inspired decision, as the Owls have burst onto the scene as one of the nation’s up-and-coming programs. After shocking many with an 8-5 2007 season, which culminated in the school’s first bowl appearance and victory, Schnellenberger again led F.A.U. to postseason play in 2008. And again the Owls won, giving Schnellenberger a perfect 6-0 career mark in bowl games. Florida Atlantic’s climb from a member of the F.C.S. (2001-5) to back-to-back bowl participant has been rapid, but you should have seen it coming: Schnellenberger is the father of the Miami program, leading the Hurricanes to their first national title in 1983 and a 41-16 record over all from 1979-1983. Schnellenberger has a thing for rebuilding jobs; in addition to his time at F.A.U. and Miami – the ‘Canes had two winning seasons in the decade prior to his arrival – Schnellenberger took over a dismal Louisville program in 1985 and tried his hand at resurrecting Oklahoma in 1995 before being fired after one season. Now entering the twilight of his career, Schnellenberger is writing a fitting coda to a legendary and unorthodox coaching career.

Tidbit (coaching edition): There have been some changes to the F.A.U. offensive staff. Last fall’s offensive coordinator and quarterbacks coach, Gary Nord, left to take the coordinator position at Purdue. To replace him at coordinator, Schnellenberger promoted the wide receivers coach Darryl Jackson. Jackson will continue running a pro-style offense, granting continuity to a strong unit. The team also hired the former Louisville coach Jeff Brohm to coach the quarterbacks. Brohm most notably tutored his younger brother Brian to all-conference honors as the Louisville quarterback. It’s a good hire for the F.A.U. program.

Returning starters: 9 (6 offense, 3 defense).

Key losses: A sizable number of losses on both sides of the ball. On offense, the backfield duo of Charles Pierre (not to be confused with the 19th century French poet Charles Pierre Baudelaire) and DiIvory Edgecomb combined for 1,483 yards rushing while splitting carries and starts throughout the season. Pierre, with 1,014 yards, became the first Owl to break the 1,000-yard mark. He had at least 500 yards in each of his four seasons, improving his total in each year (517 yards, 756, 782 and 1,014). While Edgecomb ceded the majority of the carries to Pierre, he was a better option in the passing game. While he had 10 receptions for 98 yards as a senior, in 2007 Edgecomb posted 24 grabs for 416 yards (17.3 yards per reception) and 4 scores. Three more starters are lost up front. Though often hampered by injuries – including missing the first five games of 2008 – center Nick Paris was the anchor of the F.A.U. line in each of the last three seasons. He was a second-team all-Sun Belt pick in 2008, as was right guard John Rizzo, who missed the season’s final five games due to injury. Rizzo, a former walk-on, started nearly every game of his career, beginning with the fifth game of his freshman season. Brandon Jackson, who alternated between left tackle and guard as a senior, is the third departed starter up front. The losses pale in comparison to those on defense, where the Owls will need to replace eight starters from a season ago. The unit most hit by graduation? Linebacker, where all three starters – Frantz Joseph, Andre Clark and George Allen – must be replaced. The biggest loss is Joseph, a former Boston College transfer who twice earned all-Sun Belt first-team honors. As a senior, Joseph tallied a team-leading and school-record 154 tackles (9 for loss), an improvement even over his monster junior campaign (131 stops, 12.5 for loss). Despite playing only three seasons (due to his transfer), Joseph departs as the program’s leading career tackler (346); he also departs as the best defensive player in the school’s short history. Three more losses come up front: ends Julian Myers and Michael Hancock and tackle Jervonte Johnson. Hancock, in his first season as the undisputed starter, led the team with six sacks and all defensive linemen with seven and a half tackles for loss. Johnson was a first-team all-conference pick at tackle after posting 41 stops and 1.5 sacks. As a junior, Johnson’s 28 tackles and 2 sacks earned him second-team honors. No, we’re not done yet. More key contributors are gone in the secondary, including the first-team all-Sun Belt cornerback Corey Small, the team leader with four interceptions. That gave Small nine interceptions over his final two seasons, the most on the team. After being stymied by injuries in 2007, strong safety Greg Joseph finished his final season second on the team in tackles (102). Joseph also led the team with 10 pass breakups. Though Carldayle Brantley made only two starts at free safety, he remained an important part of Florida Atlantic’s defensive back rotation. In 2008, Brantley finished tied for second on the team with three interceptions.

Players to watch: The senior Rusty Smith leads what should again be one of the top two offenses in the Sun Belt. The group returns all of its key skill players – minus Pierre and Edgecomb – and a number of experienced linemen up front. Smith had another strong season last fall, his third as the starter: 3,224 yards and 24 touchdowns against 14 picks. Still, those numbers fell short of the lofty totals in his Sun Belt player of the year-winning 2007 season, when he set single-season school records in yards (3,688) and touchdowns (32). Smith’s completion percentage also took a slight dip last fall, from 58.7 as a sophomore to 53.8 (of course, chronic drops from the F.A.U. receiving corps didn’t help). Despite the very slight decrease in play, Smith remains the best quarterback in the Sun Belt and, as Florida Atlantic’s career leader in attempts, completions, yards and touchdowns, the best signal caller in school history. His favorite target is the junior receiver Cortez Gent, who led the team with 60 receptions for 935 yards and 9 touchdowns. That marked the second straight season Gent had paced the team in those three important categories, after his all-conference 2007 season. He’s a favorite to earn all-Sun Belt honors again as a senior. Gent is not the only option in the F.A.U. passing game. Simply at wide receiver, Smith can also look towards the senior Chris Bonner (22 receptions for 492 yards) and the junior Lester Jean (25 for 257). But it is at the tight end position that Florida Atlantic is special. Not only does the team return a 2008 second-team all-Sun Belt selection in the senior Jamari Grant (45 receptions for 642 yards) and a second solid contributor in Rob Housler (32 for 519, 4 scores), but it brings back the potential all-American Jason Harmon, who missed all of 2008 due to an A.C.L. tear. Harmon is that good: he was a first-team all-conference performer as a junior (2007), when he finished second to Gent in receptions (63), yards (825) and scores (5). Florida Atlantic has as deep a tight end group as any team in the country. Up front, the junior Lavoris Williams will move back to left tackle after playing most of 2008 on the right side. The Owls also return a pair of potential all-Sun Belt linemen in the senior guards David Matlock and Kevin Miller. There are obviously some concerns with the defense, as one would expect due to the eight starters lost to graduation. Still, there is talent here, especially in the secondary. Cornerback is one position not hurt by graduation, as the Owls returns their 2008 starters in the juniors Tavious Polo and Tavoris Hill. Polo struggled somewhat last fall, but his freshman all-American season of 2007 (seven interceptions, a school record) illustrated his capabilities. After spending his rookie year as a member of Florida Atlantic’s nickel package, Hill stepped in and started all 13 games last fall (41 tackles, 1 pick). Likewise with the junior free safety Ed Alexander (42 tackles, 3 interceptions), who played sparingly in 2007 but broke into the starting lineup three games into 2008. With all new linebackers and three new starters up front, the secondary will be the strength of the F.A.U. defense. That lone returning starter up front is the senior tackle Josh Savidge, who bounced back from a knee injury in 2007 to solidify the interior of the Owl front. He’ll need to continue his strong play while taking on a leadership role with a largely new group.

Position battle to watch: Developing a solid running game without Pierre and Edgecomb will be important. The juniors Willie Floyd (38 yards rushing) and Jeff Blanchard (57 yards, 1 score) were two of the favorites entering spring ball, along with Xavier Stinson, a redshirt freshman, and the sophomore Avionne Rolle. But the sophomore Alfred Morris, who was penciled in as a backup at fullback, had a dominant spring and stole the starting role, at least for now. Of course, the team also returns the senior fullback William Rose, who is a valuable part of both the running game (308 yards last fall) and the passing game (23 receptions for 168 yards). On defense, filling three open spots at linebacker will be difficult. The most experienced player currently holding a starting role is the senior Edward Bradwell (41 tackles, 1 sack), who will hold down the weakside. In the middle, Michael Lockley’s limited game experience has given him the edge over the redshirt freshman Alex Patee, but that battle is far from over. I am hopeful that the redshirt freshman Yourhighness Morgan will outduel the junior Malik Eugene on the strongside, as that name deserves a starting role. By the way, Morgan is the heavy favorite to win the Countdown’s prestigious “Name of the Year” award. Yourhighness? Amazing.

2009 schedule:
Sept. 5 @ Nebraska
Sept. 19 @ South Carolina
Sept. 26 Louisiana-Monroe
Oct. 3 Wyoming
Oct. 17 North Texas
Oct. 24 @ Louisiana-Lafayette
Oct. 31 Middle Tennessee
Nov. 7 @ U.A.B.
Nov. 14 Arkansas State
Nov. 21 @ Troy
Nov. 28 Western Kentucky
Dec. 5 @ Florida International

Game(s) to watch: Like last year, I see the game at Troy as the season’s most important matchup. Troy is the favorite to win the Sun Belt, but F.A.U. can help its chances by getting the head-to-head tiebreaker. The Owls will also be battling Arkansas State and Middle Tennessee State for second place in the Sun Belt; both of those games come at home.

Season breakdown & prediction: The Florida Atlantic offense is too good for the team to be ranked any lower than the second-best team in the Sun Belt, but its defense leaves me concerned. Can the team receive equal production from its eight new starters? Probably not, especially at linebacker. Yes, I’m concerned. But I’m not worried. Does that make sense? And why am I not worried? Because the Owl offense is good enough to win six games on its own, especially in the Sun Belt. Even with a questionable defense, I have F.A.U. as the second-best team in the conference, trailing only Troy. I’m most interested in seeing how the Owls fare early on, as it will be important for this team to avoid another 1-5 start. F.A.U. will drop its first two, but the potential is there for an extended winning streak heading into the Nov. 14 matchup with Arkansas State. Over all, I think the Owls will enter that game with a 5-3 mark, and will – at worst – split its final four to finish 7-5. I think very highly of this offense, and returning to the top of the Sun Belt is not out of the question. The potential is there for eight wins, but with this defense, seven wins is the more logical pick.

Dream season: The Owls take back the Sun Belt with a 9-3 regular season.

Nightmare season: Despite the best effort of the offense, Florida Atlantic’s losses on defense are too difficult to overcome. The Owls slip to 4-8, its worst mark as a full-time member of the F.B.S.

Where do Florida Atlantic fans congregate: Two great independent options. Both The Owl’s Nest and FAUOwlAccess.com are terrific places to catch up on Florida Atlantic recruiting, game stories and message board chatter. Finally, do yourself a favor and check out Ted Hutton’s F.A.U. blog for The South Florida Sun-Sentinel. It’s indispensable to both Owls fans and to outsiders looking for a glimpse into the workings of the Florida Atlantic program. And I get a kick out of the fact he calls Howard Schnellenberger “The Voice.”

Who is No. 76?: Our next university is located either in the northernmost Southern city or its southernmost Northern city in the United States. I can’t decide which.

A pretty good write up IMHO.

I've been enjoying the Quad reports.

Thanks for posting them NCowl.

Link Article

The Quad Countdown: No. 76 Louisville

Location: Louisville, Ky.

Nickname: Cardinals. Would Louisville fans be offended if the Countdown forgoes the typically-used U. of L. title in favor of just U.L.?

Last year’s ranking: No. 50.

What was said:

There is a distinct lack of depth on this Cardinals roster, leading the Countdown to believe that Louisville will struggle as the season moves into November and December. It is therefore a good thing that Louisville plays only one road game through the start of November. The Cardinals actually play only four away dates all season, a huge positive for a team still searching for its identity under Kragthorpe. But onto the bad news: offensively, the Cardinals need to replace Brohm and nearly the entire receiving corps, and on defense, the hiring of English is still not enough to offset an overall lack of talent. It is hard to make the case that Louisville will be any better than a season ago. However, giving Kragthorpe the benefit of the doubt, and taking into account the home-heavy slate, I predict a 7-5 finish, a one-game improvement over last fall’s upsetting finish.
Re-ranking: No. 82.

2008 record and recap: (5-7, 1-6). Has any program in the F.B.S. experienced as drastic a drop as Louisville over the past two seasons? After rolling through the best stretch of play in the program’s history – 82-30 from 1998-2006, 32-5 from 2004-6 – the Cardinals have slipped to 11-13 over the past two seasons. Of course, this stretch coincides with the hiring of Steve Kragthorpe, who replaced the highly-successful Bobby Petrino as Louisville’s coach. In 2007, the Cardinals brought back all the important offensive pieces of their 2006 Big East title-winning team, including the star quarterback Brian Brohm. Still, Louisville finished 6-6 and was at home for bowl season. Last fall was even worse: 5-7, 1-6 in Big East play, Louisville’s worst finish since going 1-10 in 1997. Few saw this coming. Kragthorpe was regarded as an up-and-coming star in the F.B.S. coaching ranks after leading a formerly-moribund Tulsa program to three eight-win seasons in four years. Though the Cardinal faithful were dismayed at losing Petrino to the N.F.L., fans remained optimistic that Kragthorpe would not only be able to maintain Louisville’s high level of play, but perhaps build upon it, such as he had done with the Golden Hurricane. Two years later, and fans have soured on the coach, and many, to be honest, were shocked he was retained after last fall’s struggles. To keep his job, Kragthorpe will need to both bring this team back to bowl play and, in the process, change the frustration and malaise that has ravaged its fan base. Is there any reason to think this year will be any different than last?

High point: A 24-20 win over then-No. 16 South Florida gave Louisville its marquee win of the season. At that point, riding a three-game winning streak, the Cardinals stood at 5-2 and on the cusp of bowl play. Oh, how things went south.

Low point: The Governors Cup between Kentucky and Louisville might not be as fierce as the Battle for the Bluegrass, the rivalry’s basketball series, but that doesn’t make last fall’s 27-2 Kentucky victory any less bitter for Louisville to swallow. The win gave U.K. two straight in the series after Louisville had rolled off four straight and seven of eight over its in-state rival. Now, I mentioned a moment ago Louisville’s strong start: U.L. lost its last five, a streak that began with another humbling loss to Syracuse (by 28-21). Louisville then lost three straight to superior opponents (Pittsburgh, Cincinnati and West Virginia) before rolling over in a rancid 63-14 loss to Rutgers in the season finale. Bowl eligibility on the line, and the Cardinals didn’t even show up. No wonder there were calls for Kragthorpe’s job.

Tidbit: Of the 25 F.B.S. programs to win at least 10 games in 2006, all but three – Notre Dame, California and Louisville – won at least eight games in 2007. Every program but Louisville and Notre Dame has won at least eight games in one of the last two seasons, and only the Irish have fewer victories over that span than the Cardinals (10 to Louisville’s 11). Of course, U.L. is the only one of those 25 not to return to bowl play.

Tidbit (ball control edition): It’s a simple fact that holds true for every football team, college or pro: games are won and lost in the turnover battle. That was certainly true for the Cardinals in 2008, as the team went 0-7 when committing the same amount or more turnovers than its opponent. Likewise, U.L. was 5-0 when turning the ball over less than the opposition. Louisville finished the season with 30 turnovers (17 interceptions, 13 fumbles), and its -12 turnover ratio ranked the team among the bottom 15 in the F.B.S.

Former players in the N.F.L.: 34 – K David Akers (Philadelphia Eagles), TE Gary Barnidge (Carolina Panthers), FB Brock Bolen (Jacksonville Jaguars), WR Deion Branch (Seattle Seahawks), QB Brian Brohm (Green Bay Packers), RB Michael Bush (Oakland Raiders), OT George Bussey (New England Patriots), QB Hunter Cantwell (Carolina Panthers), WR Patrick Carter (Tampa Bay Buccaneers), WR Harry Douglas (Atlanta Falcons), DE Elvis Dumervil (Denver Broncos), OT Renardo Foster (Atlanta Falcons), CB William Gay (Pittsburgh Steelers), OT Breno Giacomini (Green Bay Packers), DT Adrian Grady (Indianapolis Colts), S Antoine Harris (Atlanta Falcons), DT Earl Heyman (New Orleans Saints), LB Brandon Johnson (Cincinnati Bengals), CB Chris Johnson (Oakland Raiders), TE Scott Kuhn (Baltimore Ravens), LB Robert McCune (Baltimore Ravens), LB Lamar Myles (Jacksonville Jaguars), DE Amobi Okoye (Houston Texans), OG Kurt Quarterman (Cleveland Browns), QB Chris Redman (Atlanta Falcons), S Kerry Rhodes (Jets), RB Kolby Smith (Kansas City Chiefs), DT Montavious Stanley (New Orleans Saints), WR Mario Urrutia (Cincinnati Bengals), DE Dewayne White (Detroit Lions), DT Willie Williams (St. Louis Rams), C Eric Wood (Buffalo Bills).

Top five N.F.L. players from Louisville: I’ve got a soft spot in my heart for Johnny Unitas, so I’m likely overrating Louisville’s list, but I’ve got it as the fifth-best so far. Of course, the Countdown only recognizes the top three (Syracuse, Washington and Purdue), so Louisville will be quickly forgotten. But not the former Colt: Unitas We Stand. For the Louisville fans out there, how do you rank Nos. 2-5? I had Armstrong and Jackson there before going with Jacoby, the three-time Super Bowl-winning anchor of Washington’s famed offensive line. What about Buchanan over the former Steeler cornerback Dwayne Woodruff at No. 5?

1. QB Johnny Unitas (Baltimore, San Diego; 1956-73)
2. OT Joe Jacoby (Washington; 1981-93)
3. LB Tom Jackson (Denver; 1973-86)
4. OT Bruce Armstrong (New England; 1987-2000)
5. CB Ray Buchanan (Atlanta, Oakland; 1993-2004)

Team

Conference: Big East.

Head coach: Steve Kragthorpe (West Texas State ’87), 11-13 after two seasons at Louisville. His tenure has been nothing short of disastrous. As mentioned, Kragthorpe inherited the program at its highest point, coming off 41 wins in four seasons and a win in the 2007 Orange Bowl. That following fall, most predicted Louisville to be equally strong, not only because the team returned the majority of its offensive weapons but also because most thought very highly of Kragthorpe and the job he did rebuilding the program at Tulsa. However, while Louisville maintained a high level of play on offense, its defense let it down throughout a dismal 6-6 finish. From the Orange Bowl to no bowl in one season: it couldn’t get much worse, could it? It could, and it did in 2008, as the Cardinals sputtered through the program’s first losing season in more than a decade. It’s puzzling, as Kragthorpe’s tenure with Tulsa showed him to be one of college football’s best young coaches. His four-year record (2003-6) of 29-22 with the Golden Hurricane is made all the more impressive when considering Tulsa’s 2-21 combined record from 2001-2. Kragthorpe’s first season with Tulsa, an 8-5 finish, was capped by a trip to the Humanitarian Bowl, the program’s first bowl appearance since 1991; the seven-game improvement over a 1-10 season in 2001 constituted the biggest turnaround in the F.B.S. that fall. After taking a step back to 4-8 in 2004, Kragthorpe and Tulsa went to back-to-back bowl games in 2005-6 (Liberty Bowl and Armed Forces Bowl). In 2005, the team won Conference USA, Tulsa’s first conference title since leaving the Missouri Valley Conference in 1986 to become an independent for nine seasons. Kragthorpe came to the Golden Hurricane from the N.F.L., where he served as the quarterbacks coach for the Buffalo Bills from 2001-2. In 2002, Bills quarterback Drew Bledsoe set a team record with 4,359 passing yards. Kragthorpe’s collegiate experience includes a four-year stint with Texas A&M (1997-2000, the final three as offensive coordinator), two years with North Texas (1994-95) and one season with Boston College (1996). Last fall, I cited Kragthorpe’s relationship with Louisville Athletic Director Tom Jurich as a reason why his position was not in jeopardy. After last fall, only a promising season and a return to bowl play can save his job.

Returning starters: 11 (6 offense, 5 defense).

Key losses: Louisville lost at least five starters on each side of the ball. On offense, the Cardinals will struggle replacing the all-conference center Eric Wood, who made 49 career starts in the middle of the U.L. line. His 49 starts, all consecutive, is the second-longest streak in school history (offensive tackle Travis Leffew had 51 from 2002-5). Wood earned all-Big East honors three times, including first-team distinction as a junior and senior. As a redshirt freshman, Wood anchored a line that helped the Cardinals score 521 points, the second-highest total in school history. For his play that season, Wood was named a freshman all-American. His solid play on the collegiate level was rewarded with his being a first-round pick in April’s draft (28th to Buffalo); he was the second interior offensive linemen selected. Also drafted off the Louisville offensive line was left tackle George Bussey (fifth round to New England). Bussey, who also started at left guard as a senior, was an all-conference pick in each of his final three seasons (first-team as a sophomore and senior). Bussey, a former walk-on, will play guard at the next level. After sitting behind Brian Brohm for his first three seasons, quarterback Hunter Cantwell’s first season as the starter saw him throw for 2,493 yards and 15 touchdowns. It was not the season many were expecting from the senior, who played very well in his limited action (including three starts in 2006) as Brohm’s backup as an underclassman. Cantwell threw at least one interception (16 in total) in all but two of Louisville’s games; not surprisingly, U.L. went 2-0 in those affairs. Fullback Brock Bolen was an important of the Louisville ground game in each of the last three seasons. As a senior, Bolen set career highs in carries (124) and yards (505) and tied his junior output with seven rushing touchdowns. The U.L. defense was hit most strongly by losses on its line, where it must replace three starters from a season ago. Graduation hit the interior of the line the hardest. Nose tackle Earl Heyman (35 tackles, team-best 5 sacks) and tackle Adrian Grady (41 tackles, team-best 9 for loss) concluded their stellar four-year careers with solid senior campaigns. The duo came up big in Louisville’s upset win over South Florida, combining for 13 tackles (4.5 for loss) and 4 sacks. In the secondary, Louisville lost strong safety Bobby Buchanan (48 tackles, 1 interception) and cornerback Woodny Turenne (team-leading five interceptions). Turenne was a highly-touted junior college recruit who played much better as a senior.

Players to watch: Louisville returns the Big East freshman of the year in running back Victor Anderson. He’ll be the focus of the offense. Last fall, Anderson rushed for 1,047 yards and 8 scores, making him only the 13th player in school history to crack the 1,000-yard mark. His season totals came in only four starts, as Anderson split both time and carries with Bolen and the junior Bilal Powell (354 yards rushing). Still, Anderson managed to crack 100 yards in five games, including in three straight and five of seven from Sept. 6 to Nov. 1. Louisville also returns its two leading receivers, the junior Doug Beaumont (62 receptions for 750 yards) and the sophomore Josh Chichester (30 for 341). Adding depth at receiver are the senior Trent Guy (14 for 216) and the junior Troy Pascley (12 for 252, a team-leading 21 yards per catch and 4 scores). Guy is also a valued member of the Louisville special teams, especially as a kick returner. While this group might not have the star receivers it had during its run to the Orange Bowl in 2006 (though Beaumont is close), the team does go at least four deep. This will help the Cardinals break in a new starter at quarterback. U.L. brings back four players with 2008 starting experience on the offensive line. On the right side of the line, the senior guard Abdul Kuyateh and the junior tackle Jeff Adams started all 12 of the team’s games. The junior left tackle Greg Tomczyk made four starts at left tackle and another at left guard as a sophomore, while the junior Mark Wetterer started six games at left guard. This pair will be expected to hold down the left side, Tomczyk at tackle, Witterer at guard. On defense, the lone returning starter up front is the senior L.D. Scott (22 tackles, 6 for loss), who played mostly at end as a junior. This fall, however, Scott is penciled in to take snaps on the nose, where he’ll team with the senior Tyler Jessen. Two other players with starting experience are the sophomore Greg Scruggs and the senior L.T. Walker (14 tackles), who spelled Heyman for three late-season games at tackle. At linebacker, the senior Jon Dempsey will move from the weakside to the middle. As a junior, Dempsey led the team in tackles (80, 8 for loss) in his first season with the program. He’ll switch spots with the junior Antwon Canady, who moves from the middle out to the weakside. A player to keep your eye on at linebacker is the sophomore Dexter Heyman, Earl’s younger brother, who is posed to take on a larger role this fall. The U.L. secondary returns an experienced cornerback in the junior Johnny Patrick (15 career starts) and a pair of safeties – the seniors Daniel Covington and Richard Raglin – who started at least two games in 2008. Though both played free safety last fall, Raglin will be moved to the strong spot as a senior. Covington remains at free safety, where he’ll compete with Chaz Thompson, a lightly-used senior, for the starting spot.

Position battle to watch: The quarterback spot remains unsettled. At the end of last season, it was widely expected that three incumbents – Matt Simms, Tyler Wolfe and Justin Burke – would battle for the starting role. A fourth quarterback, Adam Froman, was added in Louisville’s 2009 recruiting class, potentially adding depth to the position. Instead, signing Froman angered Simms, who felt he should have been named the starter without a competition. Simms opted to transfer before the start of spring practice. Wolfe joined Simms in transferring, though the junior waited until after the spring to do so. Quarterback, once a position of depth, now will feature a competition between two players, Burke and Froman, who have yet to attempt a pass as a Cardinal. Burke transferred into the program from N.C. State, where he played sparingly but did receive some game experience. Froman, who enrolled at U.L. out of junior college, was one of the highest-ranked recruits in the team’s recent class. A third player, the redshirt freshman Zack Stoudt, adds some depth. Having a pass-catching tight end would also benefit the U.L. offense. The Cardinals will look towards either the senior Pete Nochta, the junior Cameron Graham or the redshirt freshmen Nate Nord and Stephon Ball to replace the departed starter Johnnie Burns.

2009 schedule:
Sept. 5 Indiana State
Sept. 19 @ Kentucky
Sept. 26 @ Utah
Oct. 2 Pittsburgh
Oct. 10 Southern Mississippi
Oct. 17 @ Connecticut
Oct. 24 @ Cincinnati
Oct. 31 Arkansas State
Nov. 7 @ West Virginia
Nov. 14 Syracuse
Nov. 21 @ South Florida
Nov. 27 Rutgers

Game(s) to watch: The rivalry game at Kentucky, of course. That matchup opens up a string of six straight tough games. For Kragthorpe’s sake, I hope the Cardinals don’t lose a third straight to Syracuse.

Season breakdown & prediction: It’s hard to get excited about this upcoming season for the Cardinals. In 2007, the team brought back enough talent to contend for a national championship. Last fall, though the Cardinals lost their quarterback and their receiving corps, there was still reason to believe the team could challenge for a Big East title. This season? Not so much. This team has less talent on offense, lost most of its front four on defense, and – most importantly – brings back the same coach that has led this team to its worst two-year stretch since the mid-1990s. Why should this year be any different than last? In terms of its schedule, Louisville has only three games where I believe it will be favored: Indiana State, Arkansas State and Syracuse. Connecticut may not be as good as last year, but it plays the Cardinals at home. If Louisville takes all four, it will have a chance at reaching six wins. I don’t believe the Cardinals will, and I think the team falls short of bowl eligibility for the second consecutive season: 5-7, 2-5 in the Big East. If that is U.L.’s final record, the university will be in the market for a new coach.

Dream season: Kragthorpe brings the Cardinals back into Big East contention with a 9-3 regular season.

Nightmare season: A 4-8 season would be a disaster.

Where do Louisville fans congregate: For message board chatter, check out CardinalSports.com and Inside The Ville. Additional coverage can be found at the Web site of The Courier-Journal and Card Chronicle.

Who is No. 75?: Our next university, though located in the southeastern United States, also shares its name with the capital of the Old Kingdom of Egypt.

#75

The Quad Countdown: No. 75 Memphis

Location: Memphis.

Nickname: Tigers.

Last year’s ranking: No. 70.

What was said last year:

With 16 returning starters and an able quarterback waiting in the wings there is reason for optimism among the Tiger faithful. The addition of Hall removes the potential apprehension that usually accompanies the loss of a two-year starter like Hankins. While it will take time for him to grow under center, Hall has the Memphis coaching staff excited about his potential over the next two seasons. Though the offense shouldn’t miss a beat from 2007 — three capable receivers will help the Tigers get in the end zone — questions abound on defense. Does Memphis have enough talent, especially in the secondary, to keep opponents from scoring 30-plus points per game (as they did in 2007)? Unfortunately, no, and the unit’s poor performance will prevent Memphis from winning the conference. Nevertheless, Memphis should still be a bowl team, and could possibly win eight games in 2008.
Re-ranking: No. 74.

2008 record and recap: (6-7, 4-4). This Memphis team impressed the Countdown with its mettle, as the team dug itself out of holes of 0-3 and 3-5 to return to bowl play for the second consecutive season. That gives Memphis and Coach Tommy West five bowl appearances in the last six seasons after suffering through a 32-year absence from postseason play. In last fall’s preview, I noted how West had altered his offensive philosophy to match his team’s personnel: in 2007, that involved becoming more of a passing team (307.8 yards per game). In prior seasons, Memphis rode its dominant run game, led by DeAngelo Williams, to victory. But last fall the Tigers featured their best mix of run and pass yet seen under West, as U.M. averaged 194.8 yards rushing and 222.4 yards through the air. The end result was 417.2 yards of total offense, slightly lower than the 447.4 yards per game averaged in 2007, but much more balanced and, at times, harder to defend. Most of the offensive skill pieces return this fall, including the team’s starting quarterback, running back and top two receivers. The team does have some major issues to resolve up front, but there is no reason to think the Tigers cannot maintain this high level of play on offense in 2009.

High point: Memphis won six of its final nine to reach bowl play. The most impressive win was a 36-30 victory over Southern Mississippi, which the Tigers won despite being down to its third- and fourth-string quarterbacks because of injuries. At 5-6 entering the season’s final weekend, Memphis needed a win to become bowl eligible: luckily, the game was against Tulane. The Tigers ran all over the Green Wave to the tune of 379 yards rushing in a 45-6 victory.

Low point: An 0-3 start nearly crippled Memphis’s season in the early going. The season opened with a 41-24 loss at Mississippi, U.M.’s fourth straight loss in the series, and continued with narrow defeats to both Rice (by 42-35) and Marshall (by 17-16). Memphis lost to the Thundering Herd despite racking up 462 yards of offense, 368 through the air.

Tidbit: Memphis was one of 12 teams in the F.B.S. to open the season 0-3. Only two of those 12 bounced back from the poor start to reach bowl play: Memphis and Rutgers. The Scarlet Knights faced records of 0-3 and 1-5 before rolling off seven straight wins to end the season.

Tidbit (bowl edition): Memphis’s five bowl appearances since 2003 ties the program with Houston and Tulsa for the second most in Conference USA over that time. Southern Mississippi has played in a bowl game in each of those six seasons, as well as in 11 of the past 12 years.

Former players in the N.F.L.: 11 – Stephen Black (Pittsburgh Steelers), DT Tony Brown (Tennessee Titans), WR Isaac Bruce (San Francisco 49ers), K Stephen Gostowski (New England Patriots), OG Artis Hicks (Minnesota Vikings), DT Clinton McDonald (Cincinnati Bengals), CB Brandon McDonald (Cleveland Browns), CB Mike McKenzie (New Orleans Saints), OT Brandon Pearce (Arizona Cardinals), C Wade Smith (Kansas City Chiefs), RB DeAngelo Williams (Carolina Panthers).

Top five N.F.L. players from Memphis: Bruce is destined for the Hall of Fame, and Schuh is a Raider great. But all told, not a great list from the Tigers, though I was surprised by their lengthy list of N.F.L. alumni. Still, when Bruce does retire, Memphis will shortly become one the few Conference USA programs with an alumnus in the Hall.

1. WR Isaac Bruce (St. Louis, San Francisco; 1994-present)
2. OT Harry Schuh (Oakland, Los Angeles, Green Bay; 1965-74)
3. DE Tim Harris (Green Bay, S.F., Philadelphia; 1986-95)
4. CB Mike McKenzie (Green Bay, New Orleans; 1999-2008)
5. WR Earnest Gray (Giants; St. Louis; 1979-85)

Team

Conference: Conference USA, East division.

Head coach: Tommy West (Tennessee ’76), 47-51 in eight years at Memphis. West is one of the most successful coaches in team history; now third in career victories and one of four coaches to lead the team to four winning seasons, he joins only the former Tiger coach Billy J. Murphy with at least seven wins in four different seasons. Though it took West two years to build the program (a combined 8-15 from 2001-2), he has since led the Tigers to five of its six F.B.S. bowl appearances, including victories in the 2003 New Orleans Bowl (snapping a 32-year bowl drought) and the 2005 Motor City Bowl. Those two victories, coupled with an appearance in the 2004 G.M.A.C. Bowl, gave Memphis three straight bowl appearances for the first time. Before going to Memphis — he was the defensive coordinator for one season before being promoted — West was the coach at Clemson for six years (1993-98), compiling a 31-28 record and three bowl appearances. Those three bowl trips (1995-7) were followed by a 3-8 finish in 1998, costing West his job. But he seems to be a very good fit at Memphis, a historically mediocre program reveling in its newfound place as annual bowl combatants. After inheriting a program in the middle of nine losing seasons in 12 years, West has successfully altered the course of the program where Memphis should be considered one of the top programs in the Conference USA East division.

Tidbit (coaching edition): Memphis made an impressive jump in total defense last fall, improving to 57th nationally after being ranked 100th in 2007. But last fall’s defensive coordinator, Tim Walton, left Memphis to take a position on the staff of the Detroit Lions. To replace Walton, West tabbed Kenny Ingram, the team’s linebackers coach. West was torn between Ingram, Brent Pry and Lytrel Pollard, three of his assistants, but decided on Ingram because of his experience on the staff. That makes five defensive coordinators in the past four years for Memphis, including West himself, who took over coordinator duties during the 2006 season.

Returning starters: 11 (4 offense, 7 defense).

Key losses: On offense, Memphis faces the specter of replacing four multiple-year starters along its line. These four starters combined to make 93 career starts, led by the right tackle Brandon Pearce’s 46. Pearce will be the most difficult to replace. Beyond his stature as a four-year starter, he twice earned first-team all-conference honors (2007-8); he was also the team’s offensive lineman of the year as a senior. Center Philip Beliles had the next most starts up front, 28, a stretch that included all 26 of the team’s games as a junior and senior. He was an all-conference honorable mention pick as a senior. The other two starters, the left tackle Cody Stubblefield and the right guard Michael Denning, played well in their lone seasons as the starter. In all, these four departed starters were the key to Memphis averaging nearly 200 yards of rushing offense per game, its best total since the DeAngelo Williams-led teams of 2003-5. The group also allowed only 17 sacks, so it wasn’t as if it were simply a group of maulers in the run game. In the passing game, the Tigers lost the receivers Stephen Black (36 catches for 286 yards), Earnest Williams (29 for 249, team-best 6 scores) and Carlton Robinzine (16 for 127) and the tight end Brett Russell. Still, the Tigers return enough talent to offset these losses. Three-fourths of the defensive line were seniors last fall, led by the first-team all-Conference USA tackle Clinton McDonald. He joined Pearce as the only Tigers to earn first- or second-team honors. As a senior, McDonald led all Tiger defensive linemen with 39 tackles, as well as the team with 7 sacks. That gave McDonald 17 tackles for loss and 11 sacks over his final two seasons, when he became the first U.M. player under Tommy West to be a two-time team captain. Obviously, his leadership will be as difficult to replace as his production. Lining up next to McDonald at nose tackle was Freddie Barnett, a former JUCO transfer whose senior totals (23 tackles, 1 sack) fell somewhat short of his strong junior season. In the secondary, the three-year starting safety Brandon Patterson capped his strong career with 71 tackles, third on the team. For the second straight year, Patterson was recognized as an academic all-American; likewise, the Countdown again notes that intelligence is an underrated asset on the football field.

Players to watch: Memphis will have no trouble scoring. The offense is led by the senior quarterback Arkelon Hall, a former JUCO transfer who played well as a first-year starter in 2008. For the season, Hall threw for 2,275 yards and 12 scores on 57 percent passing; strong numbers, especially given that Hall lost most of three games to injury, but he can do better. If Hall does again go down to injury, the team will look toward the senior Brett Toney (338 yards, 3 scores) and the junior Byron Ingram, a transfer from Georgia Tech. Hall has the luxury of handing off to the senior running back Curtis Steele, the 2008 Conference USA Newcomer of the Year. As a junior, Steele rushed for 1,223 yards, the fourth most in team history; each of the top three spots are held by DeAngelo Williams. Steele will be pushed for carries by the sophomore Brandon Ross (296 yards, 2 scores) and the junior Lance Smith, most recently of Wisconsin. Despite losing three contributors, Memphis should feel good about its receiver corps. The group is led by two seniors, Duke Calhoun and Carlos Singleton, who double as two of the most productive pass catchers in the history of the program. The pair enter their final season ranked in the top five in team history in receptions (Calhoun second with 144; Singleton fourth with 125) and yards (Calhoun third with 2,058; Singleton fourth with 1,858), and Singleton needs only one touchdown for 20 scores and the team record. It’s not surprising that Singleton is so adept at getting into the end zone: at 6 feet 8 inches, Singleton can simply jump above defensive backs to pull down the ball. As juniors, the duo combined for 92 receptions for 1,278 yards and 8 touchdowns. Other names to watch at receiver are the redshirt freshman Marcus Rucker, the M.V.P. of the spring game, and the Miami transfer Jermaine McKenzie. Another Miami transfer, the senior tight end DajLeon Farr, will be in the mix to replace Russell at tight end. The Tigers return only one starter on their defensive line, the senior Jada Brown (24 tackles, 2 sacks), but the team feels good about its depth up front. Three other seniors with solid game experience — ends Greg Terrell and Demetrius Culpepper and tackle Steven Turner — will be the favorites to join Brown in the starting lineup. A name to watch for is the junior tackle Justin Thompson, who worked hard to become eligible academically to transfer in from junior college and will surely work himself into the line rotation. Linebacker will be the strength of the defense. The senior Greg Jackson, who had 52 tackles (a team-best 11.5 for loss) and 4 sacks last fall, teams with the junior Jeremy Longstreet (80 tackles) to give Memphis a very strong tandem of outside linebackers. In the middle is the senior Winston Bowens, who added 55 stops and 2 sacks a season ago. The team also added a pair of SEC transfers in Derrick Odom (L.S.U.) and Jamon Hughes (Mississippi State), both of whom are itching to get back on the field after sitting out their transfer season in 2008. Now, the secondary. Despite returning three starters, this unit remains in flux, as the team must get improved play to match up against some of Conference USA’s more potent passing offenses. Though he missed spring ball, the team expects to get back the senior free safety Alton Starr in the fall. Starr led the team in tackles last fall (90) on the way to an all-conference honorable mention selection. His health will be key to the overall success of the unit. The Tigers also bring back their starting cornerbacks in the senior Deante’ Lamar and the junior D. A. Griffin, the latter of whom excels in the return game. An influx of new talent will push the returning starters for both playing time and, potentially, their starting roles. At safety, the former Auburn Tiger DeRon Furr may have too much talent to keep off the field. Likewise with the JUCO transfers Tremaine McKenzie (Jermaine’s brother) and Torenzo Quinn, who currently sit second on the depth chart at strong safety and cornerback, respectively.

Position battle to watch: Let’s take a look at the Memphis offensive line. The only returning starter from 2008 is the junior Dominik Riley, who will move from his previous left guard spot to center. Two positions seem to be tied up by the sophomore Ronald Leary and the senior Malcolm Rawls. Leary will step into the starting left tackle role after backing up Pearce last fall. Leary played primarily on the right side last fall, so keep an eye on how well he makes the transition to the quarterback’s blindside. Like Leary, Rawls backed up Michael Denning at right guard in 2008 (making five starts) and will step into the starting role as a senior. That leaves three spots in capable hands, but two positions remain up for grabs: left guard and right tackle. The sophomores Michael Antonescu and Joel McCleod may be considered the favorites at left guard, but neither brings enough game experience to be considered a lock for the starting lineup. McCleod actually played on the defensive line as a freshman, racking up 10 tackles (1.5 for loss) on the season. The situation is similar at right tackle, where two juniors — Maurice Holloway and Brad Paul — are battling for the top spot. The lack of game experience should be a concern, but Memphis may have its best depth up front in years. Of course, must depends on how well the newcomers — both the young, untested players and the JUCO transfers — react to the college game.

2009 schedule:
Sept. 5 Ole Miss
Sept. 12 @ Middle Tennessee State
Sept. 19 Tennessee-Martin
Sept. 26 Marshall
Oct. 3 @ U.C.F.
Oct. 10 UTEP
Oct. 17 @ Southern Mississippi
Oct. 27 East Carolina
Nov. 7 @ Tennessee
Nov. 14 U.A.B.
Nov. 21 @ Houston
Nov. 28 @ Tulsa

Game(s) to watch: With the knowledge that a tough November is around the corner, it will be important for Memphis to get off to a strong start. The five-game stretch from Sept. 12 to Oct. 10 must see the Tigers go no worse than 4-1 if the team is to get back to six wins. If U.M. again starts 0-3, it will not get back to .500.

Season breakdown & prediction: I have Memphis again finishing in the six- to seven-win range, mostly because of the returning talent it has at the offensive skill positions. On offense, my main concern revolves around whether the Tigers can again run the ball as effectively as it did in 2008. Steele does return, and is a favorite for all-conference honors, but the offensive line will have four new starters. The same argument can be had of the defensive line: can Memphis improve its run defense with three new starters up front? Another issue with the defense is the secondary, which had its moments last fall but remains a work in progress. Still, there is a lot to like about this team, starting with Steele and Hall in the backfield and the experienced receiving corps. With three returning starters and an influx of new talent, linebacker will be the strength of the defense. There is no doubt that Memphis is good enough to again take third in the East and return to bowl play, but I don’t think the Tigers are as good as Southern Mississippi and East Carolina. The schedule is rough in spots, but if U.M. can get off to a good start, seven wins should be well within reach.

Dream season: Three straight wins to end the season propel Memphis to an 9-3 finish and the top spot in the East division.

Nightmare season: The Tigers start strong but fade down the stretch in a 4-8 season.

Where do Memphis fans congregate? Fans meets at MemphisTigers.org, TigerSportsReport.com and MemphisScouts.com. Be prepared: there’s mostly basketball chatter going on at these sites. The same can’t be said of MemphisRoar.com, a blog that keeps a basketball focus while giving U.M. football its due.

Who is No. 74?: According to The Princeton Review, our next university has the most diverse student body of any F.B.S. school.

Temple?

(06-18-2009 02:43 PM)sotsclarinet08 Wrote:  Temple?

I would have guessed Stanford but they were only #7.

Thanks for compiling these here, NCowl.

I think that's 8 C-USA and 8 Sun Belt teams so far?

(06-19-2009 06:38 AM)Chappy Wrote:  Thanks for compiling these here, NCowl.

I think that's 8 C-USA and 8 Sun Belt teams so far?

No problem, It's the only way we will make it through this dreaded off-season.

74

The Quad Countdown: No. 74 Temple

Location: Philadelphia.

Nickname: Owls. Last year, the three teams with an Owl mascot were predicted to finish in the following order: Temple (No. 105), Rice (No. 104) and Florida Atlantic (No. 68). This year, I predict Temple to be the best Owls in the F.B.S. The Great Horned Owl, if you will.

Last year’s ranking: No. 105.

What was said last year:

After a three-game improvement in 2007, Temple expects another successful fall. But are the Owls an above-.500 team? Their schedule may allow them to break that way, but a number of things must go the Owls way for such a previously unthinkable scenario to occur. First, Temple must take care of business at home, as mentioned. The out-of-conference slate, featuring two B.C.S. conference teams in Connecticut and Penn State, also has two games against service academies. If the Owls are to finish over .500, they will need to sweep Army and Navy. I don’t think Temple can beat Navy, despite the departure of Paul Johnson, so even matching last season’s 4-4 conference mark will not give Temple a winning season.
Re-ranking: No. 86.

2008 record and recap: (5-7, 4-4). Yes, Temple did match 2007’s 4-4 mark in MAC play, and did add an extra victory by defeating Army in nonconference play. It still wasn’t enough to push the Owls into bowl eligibility, though the team did post its best finish since going 7-4 in 1990. But there is no question that this was the most competitive Temple team since the program joined the Big East in 1991. The five wins — the most since that 1990 season — matched the program’s output over the previous three seasons combined. The Owls scored 281 points on offense, the program’s most since scoring 308 in 1986 (when, amazingly, the team went 0-11). On defense, the team allowed 277 points, only the second time the Owls have given up fewer than 300 points in a season since 1992. Of the team’s seven losses, only one (a 45-3 loss at Penn State) came by more than 10 points. In its six other defeats, Temple lost by 3 points (to Connecticut), 2, 4, 10, 6 and 3. Three of those losses came on the final play of the game (more on this in a moment). Looking at the team’s annual improvement under Golden (from one win in 2006), and taking into account the 15 starters and countless contributors returning from last year’s team, is there any doubt that Temple is the trendy pick to take the MAC East division away from Buffalo in 2009?

High point: I was impressed by Temple’s 14-10 victory over Ohio. Yes, the Owls were outplayed, and yes, the team racked up only 143 yards of total offense. But after losing so many close games, it was important for T.U. to pull out a close game like this in MAC play. The offense was not great in 2008, as illustrated in the win over Ohio, but the Owls did gain 437 yards of total offense in a 55-52 shootout win over Eastern Michigan. That game was followed by a 27-6 victory over Akron in the season finale, giving Temple two straight wins to end the season.

Low point: Oh, those narrow defeats must have had Temple fans losing their hair. Let’s count them down. Connecticut, by 12-9 in overtime; Buffalo by 30-28 (one of the best finishes of the season); Western Michigan, by 7-3; Central Michigan, by 24-14, Temple’s widest margin of defeat in MAC play; Navy by, 33-27 in overtime; and Kent State, by 41-38. If Temple takes just two of those games — or merely the Buffalo game — it is likely the East division champ.

Tidbit: Even though the Owls were plus-4 in point differential last fall (281 scored to 277 allowed), T.U. is minus-1,179 for the decade, having scored 1,853 points and given up 3,032. From 2003-6, Temple never allowed fewer than 393 points in a season, which equates to 32.3 points a game over a 12-game season. Its worst defensive performance came in 2005, when Temple allowed 498 points in 11 games; that’s a 45.3 points per game average.

Tidbit (dental edition): Temple’s School of Dentistry, founded in 1863, is the second oldest dental college in the United States. It trails only the University of Maryland, whose dental college was opened in 1840. Maryland’s dental school is actually a descendant of the world’s first dental college, the Baltimore College of Dental Surgery, which is part of the University of Maryland-Baltimore system. If you’ve ever had the good fortune to partake in a crab feast down in Maryland, you’d understand the region’s need for solid dentistry. Now if only a resourceful Maryland doctor could find a cure for Old Bay Finger, a painful condition that occurs when the flavorful seasoning finds its way into thin cuts caused by the crab’s sharp outer shell.

Tidbit (media guide edition): Temple’s spring media guide clocks in at 75 pages, making it the most lengthy spring prospectus I’ve come across thus far on the Countdown. Virginia, at 53 pages, is the second longest. Of course, I imagine Florida has 75 pages only on Tim Tebow, so Temple’s lead may not last the entire off-season.

Former players in the N.F.L.: 7 – DT Raheem Brock (Indianapolis Colts), DT Antwon Burton (St. Louis Rams), C Alex Derenthal (Giants), FB Dan Klecko (Philadelphia Eagles), DT Terrance Knighton (Jacksonville Jaguars), FB Jason McKie (Chicago Bears), LB Rian Wallace (Washington Redskins).

Top five N.F.L. players from Temple: No, Bill Cosby never played in the N.F.L., though judging by the picture above, he most likely wishes he had. The Owls will need to settle with this list, though none slung pudding pops quite like Mr. Cosby. Bucko Kilroy is widely regarded as one of the dirtiest players in N.F.L. history (a notion he always resented) because he was notorious for throwing forearms at opposing linemen, a legal move at that time. So if it was legal, why was he dirty?

1. OG Bucko Kilroy (Philadelphia; 1943-55)
2. CB Kevin Ross (Kansas City, Atlanta, San Diego; 1984-97)
3. DT Joe Klecko (Jets, Indianapolis; 1977-88)
4. WR Steve Watson (Denver; 1979-87)
5. DE Lance Johnstone (Oakland, Minnesota; 1996-2006)

Team

Conference: Mid-American, East division.

Head coach: Al Golden (Penn State ’91), 10-26 after three seasons at Temple. Much of that damage was done in Golden’s first season with the Owls (2006), when T.U. struggled through a 1-11 season. A great improvement was made in 2007, when the Owls bounced back from a 1-5 start to win four games, all in MAC play. Even more progress was made last fall, as T.U. finished with its most wins in a season since 1990 and, for the second straight year, .500 in the MAC. What has Golden done to put Temple on the verge of a breakout season? He has completely rebuilt the nation’s worst defense — more on that below — as well as ramped up Temple’s recruiting, which has ranked in the top three in the MAC in each of his three seasons in charge. Those youngsters, now with a year or two of F.B.S. experience, constitute the heart of the Temple roster. Though the fifth-youngest head coach in the F.B.S., Golden brought a wealth of F.B.S. coaching experience to Temple in 2006. From 2001-5, Golden served as Al Groh’s first defensive coordinator at Virginia, helping lead the Cavaliers to a 37-26 mark and four consecutive bowl trips (2002-5). Like with the Owls, Golden pushed all the right buttons with the U.V.A. defense, helping the unit improve from 108th nationally in total defense in 2001 to 18th in 2004. Golden was tabbed to be the youngest coordinator in the F.B.S. after a single season at Penn State (2000), where he served as the linebackers coach and recruiting coordinator. His additional F.B.S. experience includes three seasons at Boston College (1997-99), coaching the linebackers, and a three-year stint as a graduate assistant at Virginia (1994-96). Considering the job he has done with the Owls and his impressive assistant experience, it is no wonder Golden’s name has been attached to a number of high-profile job openings over the last two seasons.

Tidbit (coaching edition): Temple can thank the great strides taken by its defense for its improved play over the last two seasons. In 2006, Golden’s first season, the Owls ranked 118th (out of 119 teams) in scoring defense at 41.3 points per game. Last fall, Temple’s 23.1 points-per-game allowed ranked 47th nationally. That’s a difference of 219 total points, or more than the T.U. offense scored in each season from 2005-7. Only one other F.B.S. team can tout a defensive turnaround as impressive as Temple’s: Louisiana Tech went from 119th in total defense in 2006 (542 total points allowed, 41.7 per game) to 52nd last fall (23.7 per game). Not surprisingly, Tech went 8-5 in 2008, a five-win improvement over its 3-10 mark of 2006.

Returning starters: 15 (7 offense, 8 defense).

Key losses: The offense must replace quarterback Adam DiMichele, the 2008 team M.V.P. The former Penn State transfer — and Pennsylvania prep legend — started 26 games over his three years with the Owls, missing games only because of a number of injuries. As a senior, DiMichele missed three games because of injury; he sat out a combined seven games as a junior and senior. His senior year was his best: 1,911 yards and 19 passing touchdowns, both career highs, as well as career-low six interceptions (in 231 attempts). DiMichele added three touchdowns on the ground, also an individual high. Along the line, the graduation of Alex Derenthal opens the center spot up to competition for the first time in five years. Derenthal made 47 consecutive starts from 2005-8, a school record, and earned all-MAC second-team honors as a senior. It was the first time Derenthal was named an all-conference performer. Fellow linemen Andre Douglas (24 career starts), a transfer from Rhode Island, and Jabari Ferguson (14 starts) must also be replaced. At wide receiver, Bruce Francis graduated as the all-time school leader in touchdowns with 23; his 13 as a senior also set a school record, as did the 38-game reception streak to end his career. His 45 receptions, 687 yards receiving and touchdown total led the team, the second consecutive season Francis had done so. Losses on the defensive line are troubling. First, the Owls lost tackle Terrance Knighton, the only first-team all-MAC selection in school history. Knighton earned that honor as a senior, when he tallied 54 tackles (7.5 for loss) and a sack. However, he could have very well been an all-MAC pick as both a sophomore (57 tackles, 3 sacks) and a junior (56, 2 sacks). Knighton was lost to graduation; the would-be senior Junior Galette was recently dismissed from the team for a violation of rules, robbing the Owls of its most talented pass rusher. Galette, he was also suspended for the final four games of 2008, finished his junior season first on the team in both tackles for loss (10) and sacks (7.5). Remember, he reached those totals in only eight games. Tough losses both, and while the Owls have depth on the defensive front (eight returning players with at least nine games experience), it will be difficult to replace the lost production. One 2008 starter is lost in the secondary — cornerback Evan Cooper Jr. — but T.U. lost contributors in Georg Coleman, Richard Sheppard, Tommie Williams and Daryl Robertson, the last because of a violation of team rules. The only unit that worries me in terms of its losses is the front four; however, as mentioned, the team does bring back eight contributors.

Players to watch: The Owls may have the youngest offensive line in the F.B.S., as the postspring depth chart features three sophomores and a pair of juniors in starting roles. Yes, the group may be young, but it’s experienced. On the left side of the line, the sophomores Pat Boyle (tackle) and Wayne Tribue (guard) started a combined 13 games as true freshmen. Boyle’s twin, Sean, who also played as a true freshman, currently stands as the leader to replace Derenthal in the middle. Four Owls are competing for the starting running back job, a position that very well may see a by-committee approach. Temple returns its two leading rushers from a season ago (Kee-ayre Griffin, 394 yards and 5 scores; and Joe Jones, 275 yards), as well as two players — the senior Lamar McPherson and the sophomore Ahkeem Smith — with a good shot at earning the starting role. McPherson, a converted linebacker, actually sits atop the depth chart heading into the summer. The receiver most able to step into Francis’s large shoes is the senior Jason Harper, who finished second to the departed record-holder in both receptions (33) and yards (571) a season ago. A former tailback (2006-7), Harper led T.U. in rushing in 2007 with 586 yards. He added 22 receptions for 226 yards that fall, showing the coaching staff what he could do in the passing game. Also expected to be major contributors at receiver are Dy’Onne Crudup, Delano Green and Michael Campbell. The senior Crudup (18 receptions last fall) is the most experienced of that bunch, though Green has made his presence felt in the return game. Stepping in for Knighton at tackle is the junior Elisha Joseph, who had 20 tackles, 3.5 for loss, as a three-game starter last fall. He’ll join returning starters Andre Neblett (nose tackle) and the sophomore Adrian Robinson (end) along the Temple defensive front. The sophomore Morkeith Brown is one potential replacement for Galette at end; another is the senior Brian Sanford (31 tackles, 2 sacks), who started at end a season ago but was scheduled to move inside to nose tackle in his final season. There are no question marks at linebacker, where the Owls return all three of their 2008 starters. The senior Alex Joseph, the team’s second-leading tackler last fall (87, 3.5 for loss), mans the middle. He will be flanked by the juniors Amara Kamara (67, 2 sacks) and Elijah Joseph. Depth comes in the person of the senior John Haley (43 tackles, 3 sacks), who started games at both middle and outside linebacker a season ago. Temple will not lack for experience in the secondary. The team brings back two cornerbacks with starting experience — the senior Anthony Ferla and the junior Jamal Schulters — as well as the talented sophomore Jared Williams. Safety is also in good hands. The junior Jaiquawn Jarrett, the team’s leading tackler in 2008 (88 stops, 3 interceptions), returns at free safety, where he’ll be pushed for playing time by the senior Wilbert Brinson and the sophomore Kevin Kroboth. The team welcomes back the senior Dominique Harris (66 tackles, 3 picks) at strong safety.

Position battle to watch: The Owls have two players competing to replace DiMichele at quarterback. Both have starting experience. The junior Vaughn Charlton started a combined seven games from 2006-7, often as an injury replacement for DiMichele. He threw for 417 yards and 2 scores as a true freshman in 2006, after he was mired in a preseason battle with DiMichele for the starting role, and 808 yards and 3 scores in 2007. Charlton was productive as a sophomore, minus the season finale against Western Michigan, when he went 6 for 25 for 92 yards in a 16-3 loss. Golden redshirted Charlton last fall to give him two seasons as the potential starter. To earn the starting role, Charlton must outduel the sophomore Chester Stewart, whose rookie season saw him throw for 524 yards on 50 percent passing. Obviously, he had his struggles, as shown by his 4-7 touchdown-to-interception ratio. The two were neck and neck through the spring, so the position battle will continue through the summer and into fall practice.

2009 schedule:
Sept. 3 Villanova
Sept. 19 @ Penn State
Sept. 26 Buffalo
Oct. 3 @ Eastern Michigan
Oct. 10 Ball State
Oct. 17 Army
Oct. 24 @ Toledo
Oct. 31 @ Navy
Nov. 5 Miami University
Nov. 13 @ Akron
Nov. 21 Kent State
Nov. 27 @ Ohio

Game(s) to watch: In nonconference play, the Owls must at worse get a split against the service academies. If Temple were to go 5-3 in the MAC, going 2-2 in its nonconference slate will make the difference between playing in a bowl game or staying home. In conference, I see Buffalo and Ohio as Temple’s biggest rivals for the East division crown.

Season breakdown & prediction: I doubt we’ll see an easier schedule. I see only one game where Temple will be outclassed (Penn State), and only one other game where, as of now, I’m predicting Temple to lose (Navy). Other than that? There is no doubt that Temple can play with, and defeat, the other 10 teams on its schedule. Will it? No, the Owls aren’t going 10-2. But this team could win eight games, though seven, with five coming in MAC play, seems like the more logical prediction. I believe that the team will be very strong on defense (perhaps the best in the MAC) and that this unit will carry what looks like a pedestrian offense. Of course, if Temple can get a better effort out of its running game, the offense could be much better. I remain concerned about the quarterback spot, though Charlton or Stewart could excel once given a greater opportunity as the starter. I have Temple winning the MAC East division with a 7-5 record — with the potential of breaking through completely with an 8-4 finish — and reaching the MAC title game. This will be the best Temple team in nearly 20 years.

Dream season: The Owls burst through with a 9-3 season, earning the East division crown and a place in the MAC championship game.

Nightmare season: Expectations have been raised a bit by Temple’s solid play over the last two seasons, so a slide back to 2-10 would constitute a nightmare season.

Where do Temple fans congregate? You can find solid message board talk and recruiting coverage at OwlScoop.com and OwlsDaily.com. For a blog’s take, visit Temple Football Forever. For a little while there earlier this decade, we weren’t sure if Temple football would really stick around. Now, we can safely state Temple football will be around forever. Or at least until 2012, when we all might be gone.

Who is No. 73? This college’s mascot had its start in 1786, when the French government developed the breed of animal at a commune roughly 28 miles southwest of Paris.

Colorado State

#73 Link

The Quad Countdown: No. 73 Colorado State

Location: Fort Collins, Colo.

Nickname: Rams.

2008 Countdown ranking: No. 97.

What I predicted in last year’s preview:

The hiring of a new coach always brings with it renewed anticipation and optimism, perhaps something the Colorado State program was in dire need of following four straight non-winning seasons under Lubick. Hopes should be high, but perhaps Rams fans should temper their expectations for the 2008 season. The lack of an established quarterback and receiving corps will be a thorn in the Rams’ side all season long, and despite a strong running game and backfield they will be unable to overcome an average defense and a difficult schedule. Dealing with a difficult out-of-conference schedule with an unproven quarterback could spell disaster for the Rams, and getting T.C.U., Utah and Brigham Young in a four-week span should doom their conference season. There is reason for optimism, but 2008 looks like a 5-7 season for the Rams.
Postseason re-ranking: No. 66.

2008 record and recap: (7-6, 4-4). A nice opening season for Coach Steve Fairchild and the Rams, as the team surpassed my expectations and returned to bowl play for the first time since 2003. Over the next four seasons, Colorado State slipped to a combined 17-30 mark, only once reaching .500 (a 6-6 mark in 2005) and, in 2007, experiencing the program’s first nine-loss season since 1988. The period from 1989-2003 saw success unparalleled in the history of the program, with the Rams reaching at least eight wins on eight separate occasions and four times reaching double-digit wins (1994, 1997, 2000, 2002). However, it was clear that the program had stagnated in its final seasons under Sonny Lubick, the legendary C.S.U. coach, leading the university to reach out to Fairchild, hoping his extensive history with the program (1993-2000) and N.F.L. experience would rejuvenate the once-proud WAC and Mountain West leaders. So far, so good. Using his strong offensive background, Fairchild helped turn a moribund run game into one of the conference’s most intimidating, a transformation that affected the mentality of the entire offense. His touch did not extend to the defense, which put together one of the worst statistical seasons in school history, making an improvement on that side of the ball a priority for 2009. It was a solid first season for Fairchild, but the former Ram quarterback and assistant has his work cut out for him in 2009: with only 12 returning starters, Colorado State will need to reload while playing in the Mountain West, the premier conference outside the B.C.S.

High point: The Rams rebounded from a disappointing season-opening loss to Colorado (by 38-17) in the Rocky Mountain Showdown and a shaky win over Sacramento State of the F.C.S. to upend Houston, 28-25, in the third week of the season. The win was Colorado State’s best of the regular season. A two-game winning streak to end the year earned the Rams a trip to the New Mexico Bowl, where they racked up 619 yards of total offense – 362 on the ground – in a 40-35 win over Fresno State. The bowl win was Colorado State’s first since 2001.

Low point: Despite the improvement, the Rams remained mired in the middle of the M.W.C. due to losses to the conference’s top four teams: T.C.U. (by 13-7), Utah (by 49-16), B.Y.U. (by 45-42) and Air Force (by 38-17). Those teams aren’t going anywhere, so C.S.U. will need to ramp up its game to break into the top third of the Mountain West.

Tidbit: Fort Collins is the site of the annual Colorado Brewers’ Festival, a magical two-day event celebrating the best of Colorado’s wonderful local beer breweries and distributors. Brewers participating this year include Anheuser-Busch, Big Horn Brewery/C.B. & Potts, Coopersmith’s Pub & Brewing, New Belgium Brewing Co., Fort Collins Brewery and Odell’s Brewing. The event, celebrating its 20th anniversary in 2009, will be held from June 27-28. If you’re going, the traditional 20th anniversary gift is china, though platinum is another option. Any C.S.U. fans planning on attending?

Tidbit (defense edition): All right, let’s get back to football. The Rams reached bowl play last fall despite allowing 393 points (30.2 per game), the third-highest single-season total in school history. That statistical output trails only the 1972 (413 points) and 1981 (502) Rams for defensive ineptitude. That pair combined to finish 1-22.

Former players in the N.F.L.: 17 – WR David Anderson (Houston Texans), RB Kyle Bell (Jacksonville Jaguars), OG Mike Brisiel (Houston Texans), CB Jason Craft (St. Louis Rams), TE Joel Dreesen (Houston Texans), QB Billy Farris (Cincinnati Bengals), LB Clark Haggans (Arizona Cardinals), QB Caled Hanie (Chicago Bears), DE Tommie Hill (Giants), RB Gartrell Johnson (San Diego Chargers), DE Jessie Nading (Houston Texans), OT Clint Oldenburg (Denver Broncos), OT Erik Pears (Denver Broncos), LB Joey Porter (Miami Dolphins), FB Cecil Sapp (Houston Texans), TE Kory Sperry (San Diego Chargers), CB Dexter Wynn (Detroit Lions).

Top five N.F.L. players from Colorado State: It’s a defensive-heavy list, one headlined by the Hall of Famer Jack Christiansen and his Detroit teammate Jimmy David. Just missing the cut? Defensive tackle Dale Dodrill and defensive ends Mark Bell and Al Baker (not to be confused with Al Baker, the police headquarters bureau chief for the Times). All in all, a very solid list from the Rams. Anyone care to give us the Countdown’s current top three? (I’m looking in loyal reader jjtiller’s direction.)

1. DB Jack Christiansen (Detroit; 1951-58)
2. DB Jimmy David (Detroit; 1952-59)
3. RB Lawrence McCutcheon (L.A., Denver, Seattle, Buffalo; 1972-81)
4. LB Joey Porter (Pittsburgh, Miami; 1999-2008)
5. S Don Burroughs (Los Angeles, Philadelphia; 1955-64)

Team

Conference: Mountain West.

Head coach: Steve Fairchild (Colorado State ’81), 7-6 after one season with the Rams. It was a happy return to Fort Collins for Fairchild, a former record-breaking C.S.U. quarterback and a longtime assistant under Sonny Lubick. The Rams were able to break its streak of four consecutive non-winning seasons, the program’s longest stretch since 1981-84, and win its first bowl game since 2001. Fairchild’s impressive offensive background served the Rams well, as the team posted the most points in a season since 2003 (its last winning season) with the help of a bruising running game reminiscent of the best Lubick teams. It is not surprising, therefore, to know that Fairchild was a key member of Lubick’s staff during the program’s heyday. His assistant experience with Colorado State spanned from 1993-2000 and included stints as the team’s quarterback coach (1994-96) and offensive coordinator (1997-2000). In 1997, his first year as coordinator, the Rams set school records for total points (442) and touchdowns (59) in a season; that offensive production helped the Rams finish the season ranked 16th in the nation. That C.S.U. squad featured a pair of 1,000-yard rushers for the second straight season, an F.B.S. first. In all, Fairchild coached three M.W.C. offensive players of the year (Moses Moreno, 1997; Kevin McDougal, 1999; and Matt Newton, 2000) and helped the Rams win three conference championships. He moved up to the N.F.L. in 2001, joining the Buffalo Bills as the team’s quarterbacks coach. After two seasons in Buffalo, Fairchild was hired as the offensive coordinator in St. Louis, where he served for two seasons (2004-5) before returning to the Bills as its coordinator (2006-7). As I mentioned in last year’s preview, you couldn’t draw up a better resume for a non-B.C.S.-conference head coach: prior experience at the school, familiarity with the fan base and area, and N.F.L. experience. After one season, Fairchild looks like the right man for the job. Can he get the team back into bowl play in 2009?

Tidbit (coaching edition): Fairchild’s seven wins set a school record for victories by a first-year head coach. The next-closest competitors were Bob Davis (5-4 in 1947), Sark Arslanian (5-6 in 1973), Earle Bruce (5-5-1 in 1989) and Lubick (5-6 in 1993).

Returning starters: 12 (7 offense, 5 defense).

Key losses: The best player on the 2008 C.S.U. offense was unquestionably running back Gartrell Johnson, a first-team all-M.W.C. selection and the conference’s leading rusher (1,476 yards). Johnson was able to leapfrog past two conference rushing competitors with his record-setting 375-yard (285 rushing) performance in Colorado State’s New Mexico Bowl victory over Fresno State. Johnson led the Rams in rushing in each of the last three seasons, but had yet to put together a season like he had last fall. His ascension to the starting role partly came about due to an injury to Kyle Bell, who topped 1,000 yards in 2005 but was unable to recapture his earlier form following an A.C.L. tear in 2006. That injury cost him all of 2006 and limited his effectiveness as a junior and senior, when he rushed for a combined 906 yards (215 as a senior). When healthy, Bell teamed with Johnson to give the Rams a very good tandem in the backfield. The Rams will face a hole at quarterback following the graduation of Billy Farris, a one-year starter. As a senior, Farris threw for 2,934 yards and 19 scores on 61.5 percent passing; each of those totals ranked fourth on the school’s career single-season list. Kory Sperry, a second-team all-conference tight end, bounced back after injuring his knee early in 2007 to post 38 receptions for 492 yards and a career-best 6 touchdowns. He concluded his career as perhaps the most productive tight end in school history: 141 receptions, 1,763 receiving yards and 20 touchdowns. The defensive line was hit hard by graduation, as the team lost both its starting ends (Tommie Hill and Wade Landers) and one starting tackle (Matt Rupp). The best of that trio was Hill, who wrapped up a stellar four-year career with New Mexico Bowl defensive player of the game honors. For his career, Hill posted 113 tackles, 18.5 tackles for loss and 13.5 sacks. For the first time since 2004, the Rams will confront an opening at middle linebacker. The position had been manned by Jeff Horinek for the last four seasons, who finished his career with 48 career starts and 312 career tackles. In no season did Horinek finish with less than 61 stops; his career high came in 2007 (94), but he followed that up with 88 stops (third on the team) as a senior. Colorado State’s linebacker situation was damaged further with the decision to suspend the junior Ricky Brewer for the entire 2009 season. Brewer finished his sophomore season second on the team in tackles (103). At safety, Jake Galusha (86 tackles, 1 interception) responded nicely to an early-season promotion into the starting lineup, while Mike Pagnotta again battled through injuries to post 62 tackles (3.5 for loss) and 2 interceptions.

Players to watch: The Colorado State offense is excellent in two areas: offensive line and wide receiver. Both positions return senior leadership, a good amount of talent and terrific depth. On the line, the Rams bring back four starters, all seniors, led by the all-conference center Tim Walter and the all-conference guard Shelley Smith (not to be confused with ESPN’s Shelley Smith). That pair is joined by tackle Cole Pemberton and a three-year starter at guard, Adrian Martinez. Rounding out the starting lineup is the junior tackle Mark Starr, a former tight end who brings 11 starts into his third season. This line is the best in the Mountain West. Similar talent returns at wide receiver. Leading the way is the senior Rashaun Greer, a second-team all-M.W.C. pick who led the team in receptions (63) and yards (1,114) as a junior. It was breakout season for Greer, who had not caught a pass in his first two seasons; he ended up being the first Ram receiver to crack 1,000 yards since David Anderson in 2005. He’s joined at receiver by the senior Dion Morton (51 catches for 859 and a team-leading 10 scores), the converted quarterback T.J. Borcky and the senior Ryan Gardner (13 receptions for 88 yards). More depth can be found in a number of talented returning redshirt freshmen. Will the Rams be able to find a running back (or two, or three) to replace both Gartrell Johnson and Bell in the backfield? That’s a concern for Fairchild and his staff, as C.S.U. returns only one running back (the junior John Mosure) who cracked 100 yards a season ago. Mosure, who finished with 129 yards on an impressive 9.2 yards per carry, is the favorite to take over the lead back duties. Other names to watch out for at running back are the JUCO transfer Leonard Mason and the senior Alex Square. It wouldn’t surprise me in the least to see the Rams go with a two- or three-person committee in the backfield. The Rams have a solid fullback in the sophomore Zac Pauga, but he makes his presence felt in the passing game (19 receptions for 114 yards), not as a ball carrier. I’ve got some issues with the C.S.U. defense, which had its front seven decimated by graduation. Only one starter returns up front, the senior tackle James Morehead, but the Rams hope to get immediate production from the junior Cory Macon and the senior Sam Stewart at the two open end spots. The secondary is in better shape. Colorado State brings back both its starting corners – the senior Nick Oppenneer (74 tackles, 1 interception) and the sophomore Gerard Thomas – and a third player with starting experience in the sophomore Brandon Owens. Replacing both its lost starting safeties will be difficult, but the team will receive a huge boost from a healthy Klint Kubiak, who has missed parts of each of the last two seasons due to injuries. Finally, the best player on the C.S.U. defense – and perhaps the best player on the entire team – is the sophomore linebacker Mychal Sisson, who last fall became the first Ram in school history to be named a freshman all-American. His 2008 totals (a team-leading 105 tackles, 8 for loss) came on the strongside, but Brewer’s ineligibility will push Sisson to the weakside in 2009.

Position battle to watch: Questions in the offensive backfield remain unanswered as the team enters the summer, though the situation is clearer than it was the team entered spring ball. That is especially the case at quarterback, where the senior Grant Stucker seems to hold a slight lead over the junior college transfer Jon Eastman in the fight for the starting role. Stucker outplayed Eastman through spring practice, specifically in the team’s spring game, where he completed 15 of his 28 passes for 150 yards. Eastman, in comparison, was only 2 of 7 for 30 yards and tossed an interception. While Stucker has the inside track, he’ll receive additional competition in the fall from the sophomore Klay Kubiak, who sat out the spring due to injury, and the incoming freshman Nico Ranieri. Another name to remember is the redshirt freshman Alex Kelly, who currently holds down the third spot on the depth chart. His time may not come this fall, but he’ll be an important name at quarterback for the Rams in the near future.

2009 schedule:
Sept. 5 @ Colorado
Sept. 12 Weber State
Sept. 19 Nevada
Sept. 26 @ B.Y.U.
Oct. 3 @ Idaho
Oct. 10 Utah
Oct. 17 @ T.C.U.
Oct. 24 San Diego State
Oct. 31 Air Force
Nov. 7 @ U.N.L.V.
Nov. 21 @ New Mexico
Nov. 27 Wyoming

Game(s) to watch: The rivalry with Colorado is always good fun, and has been more competitive in recent years (the Rams have taken 4 of the last 10). C.S.U. can make a statement early in Mountain West play, as the team gets the four top teams in the conference in its first five M.W.C. games. November should be kind to the Rams, but getting one win out of those four early conference games would do much for the team’s bowl hopes.

Season breakdown & prediction: Two keys for the Rams: find a quarterback and a running game. If Fairchild can identify playmakers at these two spots, this offense will hum. This is mainly because of a very good offensive line, which has the depth and experience to be the best in the Mountain West. If C.S.U. can get similar offensive production to a season ago, there is no reason to think the Rams won’t be bowl participants in 2009. But can the Rams challenge for the conference title? No, I don’t think so. Beyond the offensive question marks, C.S.U. does not return enough on defense to think it will be able to stop teams like Utah and B.Y.U., who have the offensive firepower to simply outscore the Rams. Best case? The Rams find capable starters on its defensive line, the secondary prevents the big play and Sisson tackles everything in sight. Worst case? Due to its losses in the front seven, C.S.U. is again abysmal against the run, and teams are able to exploit both that and a secondary forced to step up into the box. If the best case occurs, the Rams can win eight games; worst case, Colorado State may not reach five. I don’t think either is likely to occur: I have the Rams matching last fall’s six-win total, with four wins coming in M.W.C. play.

Dream season: The Rams upset Utah and Air Force at home to finish 6-2 in the Mountain West, 8-4 over all. That’s good enough for second in the conference.

Nightmare season: Colorado State’s 3-9 season has fans wondering if Fairchild is a one-year wonder.

Where do Colorado State fans congregate: For solid C.S.U. chatter, check out RamNation.com, though you’ll need to sign up to frequent the message board. For recruiting coverage, try Gold & Green News and RamsInsider.com.

Who is No. 72?: Our next university is the first of two Senior Military Colleges in the F.B.S. Whether all Senior Military Colleges have its corps of cadets perform such, well, strange antics is unknown.

#71 Link

The Quad Countdown: No. 72 Texas A&M

Location: College Station, Tex.

Nickname: Aggies.

2008 Countdown ranking: No. 35.

What I predicted in last year’s preview:

Looking at the Big 12 schedule, I see four wins in Kansas State, Iowa State, Colorado at home and Baylor. The other four are toss-ups, especially as A&M needs to go to Oklahoma State and Texas. What about the defense, you might ask? It is an area of concern, no question about it – but I see an improvement under Joe Kines, who has made a living out of creating top 10 defenses, especially against the pass. Over all, I expect an 8-4 season from A&M. I know many are projecting the Aggies to hover around .500, but I’m giving them the benefit of the doubt.
Postseason re-ranking: No. 84.

2008 record and recap: (4-8, 2-6). Horrible, simply horrible. Could Mike Sherman’s first season back with Texas A&M have gone any worse? Yes, it actually could have. A&M’s four wins came by a total of 31 points, including narrow victories in nonconference play over New Mexico and Army. The Aggies even lost their home opener – to Arkansas State – for the first time in 20 years, perhaps a harbinger of the setbacks yet to come. Texas A&M allowed at least 41 points in seven of its losses, including an embarrassing three-game stretch to end the season in which the Aggies were outscored, 156-58. Among those final three games? A humiliating 41-21 loss at Baylor, which all but assured A&M’s first winless season in South division play since the conference’s formation. All told, the 2008 season greatly resembled Dennis Franchione’s first season, 2003, when the Aggies also finished 4-8. Though the 2003 team may have been worse defensively, if that’s possible, it did do two things last year’s Aggies could not: beat Arkansas State and Baylor. Suffice to say, there are many questions regarding the future of this program. Maybe I shouldn’t give them “the benefit of the doubt” in 2009?

High point: Texas A&M went 2-1 against the Big 12 North, with wins coming by 49-35 at Iowa State and by 24-17 over Colorado. Four wins on the season, and only was actually worth writing home about. (If beating a 5-7 Colorado team is cause for celebration.)

Low point: The hits just kept on coming for Sherman and the Aggies, starting with the humbling loss to A.S.U. in the season opener. The trend continued with knee-to-the-groin losses to Oklahoma State (56-28), Kansas State (44-30), Oklahoma (66-28), Baylor and Texas (49-9).

Tidbit: A&M’s 40-points loss to rival Texas was the program’s second-largest margin of defeat in the series, trailing only a 48-0 loss in 1898. A&M has recently experienced a measure of success in the series, in which Texas holds a commanding 74-36-5 advantage (two straight wins, 2006-7); however, it would take A&M’s combined margin from its last five victories over the Longhorns (1994, 1997, 2004, 2006-7) to better to the 40-point margin of a season ago.

Tidbit (U.T. edition): Or T.U., standing for “Texas University,” as A&M often refers to the rival Longhorns. The relationship between the two colleges, contentious on its best day, can be summed up in A&M’s fight song, the Aggie War Hymn. The song has 23 lines, 13 of which (by my count) reference their neighbors in Austin. For example, the War Hymn (sung to the tune of “Goodbye, My Coney Island Baby”) starts “Goodbye to Texas University,” and continues with lines like “the eyes of Texas are upon you/That is the song they sing so well/Sounds Like Hell/So goodbye to Texas University/We’re going to beat you all to…” Of course, the final stanza is great fun, as Aggie fans repeat “Saw varsity’s horns off” while locking arms and swaying in unison, replicating the motion of a blade. I shiver at the thought of what a group of Aggie students would do to Bevo if they ever got their hands on him.

Former players in the N.F.L.: 29 – DT Michael Bennett (Seattle Seahawks), TE Martellus Bennett (Dallas Cowboys), DT Rocky Bernard (Giants), P Justin Brantly (Houston Texans), DT Red Bryant (Seattle Seahawks), CB Melvin Bullitt (Indianapolis Colts), TE Dan Campbell (New Orleans Saints), WR Jason Carter (Carolina Panthers), OT Corey Clark (San Diego Chargers), DT Ron Edwards (Kansas City Chiefs), CB Aaron Glenn (New Orleans Saints), WR Dante Hall (St. Louis Rams), C Geoff Hangartner (Buffalo Bills), LB Chris Harrington (Cincinnati Bengals), DT Johnny Jolly (Green Bay Packers), P Shane Lechler (Oakland Raiders), QB Stephen McGee (Dallas Cowboys), C Seth McKinney (Buffalo Bills), C Steve McKinney (Seattle Seahawks), DE Mike Montgomery (Green Bay Packers), C Don Muhlbach (Detroit Lions), DT Cyril Obiozor (Green Bay Packers), C Cody Wallace (San Francisco 49ers), DE Ty Warren (New England Patriots), CB Jason Webster (New England Patriots), DT Pat Williams (Minnesota Vikings), OG Billy Yates (New England Patriots).

Top five N.F.L. players from Texas A&M: I had been looking forward to this list for a while now because I really didn’t know what I was going to get from A&M. What do the Aggies have? One of the greats in Yale Lary, a memorable cornerback in Lester Hayes and a former M.V.P. in Moseley. Just missing the cut: linebackers Lee Roy Caffey and Jack Pardee and defensive end Jacob Green, among others. This is a top-10 list so far, but not in the Countdown’s top three.

1. S Yale Lary (Detroit; 1952-64)
2. CB Lester Hayes (Oakland; 1977-86)
3. RB John David Crow (Chicago, St. Louis, S.F.; 1958-68)
4. DT Ray Childress (Houston, Dallas; 1985-96)
5. K Mark Moseley (Phi., Houston, Wash., Cleveland; 1970-86)

Team

Conference: Big 12, South division.

Head coach: Mike Sherman (’78 Central Connecticut State), 4-8 after one season with the Aggies. Could his first season have gone any worse? No, probably not. Should fans keep the faith? In Sherman’s favor, he is no stranger to the Aggie program, having served two separate stints as R.C. Slocum’s offensive line coach (1989-93, 1995-96). As stated in last year’s preview, most coaches need a year to acclimate themselves to a new program, so Sherman entered last fall with a leg up over any other candidate A&M could have considered. Not that it did him much good. Still, the speed with which Texas A&M went after Sherman – he was hired three days after the besieged Dennis Franchione resigned – signals the faith the university’s administration has in his ability to turn the program around. That optimism has surely been tested after last fall.

Sherman’s impressive resume includes 12 seasons in the N.F.L. as an assistant, a head coach and an executive. His professional career started with a two-year stint as a Packers assistant (1997-98, tight ends/assistant offensive line) under Mike Holmgren, which was followed by one season as the Seahawks offensive coordinator, again under Holmgren. Green Bay, reeling from an 8-8 season under Ray Rhodes, tabbed Sherman as its head coach before the 2000 season, a position he held through 2005. Sherman had a six-year record of 59-43, though that was hampered by a 4-12 season in 2005; through five years, Sherman’s .640 winning percentage was second in Packers history to Vince Lombardi. His 59 wins represent the fourth-most in Packers history. Sherman held an executive post in the Packers front office each of his six seasons, including, like his professional mentor Holmgren, being general manager from 2001 to 2004. He was fired after the 2005 season, then moved to Houston, where he was the Texans assistant head coach from 2006 to 2007.

Returning starters: 13 (7 offense, 6 defense).

Key losses: The Aggies must replace the heart of their running game, though neither Mike Goodson nor Jorvorskie Lane performed to their lofty standards in 2008. Lane, despite being undervalued, underused and often injured as a senior (93 yards and 5 scores), finished his Aggie career as the program’s career leader in rushing touchdowns (49), total scores (50) and had the most career points by a non-kicker (302). From his freshman through junior seasons, Lane never once dipped below 119 carries, 595 yards or 9 touchdowns in a season; in 2006 and 2007, he combined for 1,505 yards and 35 rushing touchdowns. Last fall, though admittedly stymied by injuries, Lane only twice had more than five carries in a game (seven against New Mexico and Army). The outside runner to Lane’s bruising style was Mike Goodson, the team’s leading rusher in 2006 (847 yards) and 2008 (406).

Like Lane, Goodson’s worst season of his career came last fall, when he received more than eight carries in a game only three times. After posting only 38 yards in the team’s final six games – two of which he missed to injury – Goodson wisely opted to enter the N.F.L. draft, forgoing his final year of eligibility. An early-season injury cost quarterback Stephen McGee the starting job he had held the previous two seasons, and he threw for only 586 yards in his final season. His legacy at A&M, one reinforced by top-five career rankings in completion percentage (59.5), total offense (7,225 yards) and passing yards (5,475), was secured by back-to-back victories over rival Texas (2006-7). It may be true, as Texas Tech’s Mike Leach proposed this off-season, that the Cowboys – the team that drafted McGee in the fourth round of April’s draft – like McGee more than Sherman did. Still, McGee’s limited senior season does not diminish his solid Aggies career.

Defensively, the Aggies lost both starting ends, Michael Bennett and Cyril Obiozor. In his first season as a starter, Bennett led all Aggies with 12 tackles for loss (adding two sacks and an interception). Obiozor, a two-year starter and a three-year contributor up front, led all A&M defensive linemen in tackles (45) and sacks (3) for the second straight season. Alton Dixon set a career high in tackles as a senior (94), when the coaching staff used him at the rover spot and at outside linebacker. The losses in the secondary continued with the graduation of cornerbacks Arkeith Brown (50 tackles, 1 interception) and Danny Gorrer and rover Devin Gregg (37 tackles). Gregg, whose 33 career starts at the end of the 2008 season led the team, moved back into the starting lineup when Dixon transitioned down to linebacker. In the kicking game, the Aggies lost perhaps the second-best punter in team history in Justin Brantly, who trails only the former Aggie great Shane Lechler in career punt average (44.4 yards) and career net average (39.9 yards).

Players to watch: Despite being thrown into the fire early into the 2008 season, the junior quarterback Jerrod Johnson responded with one of the best passing seasons in A&M history. On the year, Johnson threw for 2,435 yards (fifth on the team’s single-season list) and 21 touchdowns (a team record) while completing 59.5 percent of his passes (sixth in program history). Johnson started 10 games, sitting out the season opener and backing up McGee in the finale at Texas, setting a team record for passing yards in a game (419 against Kansas State) along the way. He did lose some of his effectiveness down the stretch, throwing 6 of his 10 interceptions against Oklahoma and Baylor, but Johnson showed himself to be a good fit for Sherman’s offense, and a piece on which to build the rest of the offense around. Not that his starting job is completely secure: Johnson will have to hold off the sophomore Ryan Tannehill, a record-setting receiver for the Aggies who aspires to return to his former position. Last fall, Tannehill set team freshman records for receptions (55) and yards (844); the Aggies would be better off keeping him at receiver. Tannehill teams with his electric fellow sophomore Jeff Fuller (50 receptions for 630 yards and an A&M freshman record 9 touchdown grabs) to give the Aggies one of the best young receiver tandems in the F.B.S. Fuller looks like a future N.F.L. draft pick. Rounding out a stellar receiving corps is the junior tight end Jamie McCoy, who finished third on the team with 43 receptions for 500 yards last fall, and McCoy’s younger brother, Terrence, a sophomore, who added 24 receptions for 237 yards.

Though four starters return up front, this unit needs to greatly improve in pass protection. Leading the way is the senior left tackle Michael Shumard, who will moved inside from left tackle to guard, and the senior center Kevin Matthews, a member of the 2009 Rimington Trophy watch list. Injuries decimated this group in the spring, so it will be important to get the returning starters as many snaps as possible in fall practice to prepare them for the season opener. Call me crazy, but I like this Aggie defense. Any improvement from this side of the ball will be a result of improved play from the line, which must replace both its starting ends. One end spot – the “jack” position in Joe Kines’s defense – will be filled by the athletic junior Von Miller, who the team moved down from outside linebacker. Though undersized, Miller showed his pass-rushing ability last fall, when he led the team with 3.5 sacks. I’m excited to see what he can do coming off the edge. The senior Matt Featherston, the team’s co-leading tackler last fall, will also get a good look at the jack spot.

The interior of the line will be manned by the talented sophomore Eddie Brown and Tony Jerod-Eddie, each of whom got their feet wet as part of the line rotation last fall. The secondary, not altogether terrible last fall, brings back the senior Jordan Pugh and the sophomore Trent Hunter at safety. Pugh (45 tackles, 1 interception) moves back to safety after starting at corner last fall. The second-year player Justin McQueen is penciled in at cornerback, as is fellow sophomore Terrence Frederick, who started six games as the team’s nickelback in 2008. The defensive backfield could be very good, but it will need strong performances from its underclassmen.

Position battle to watch: The position changes for Featherston and Miller means all three linebacker spots are open. As of now, the team hopes a tide of unproven freshmen and sophomores can step in and provide a boost to last year’s underperforming defense. The best of the bunch is the sophomore Garrick Williams, who posted 36 tackles and 1.5 sacks in five starts as a rookie. He’ll battle the senior Anthony Lewis for the starting role. Lewis was Featherston’s backup last fall, but seniority should mean little to a coaching staff in desperate need of playmakers. Currently atop the depth chart on the outside are the redshirt freshman Kyle Mangan and the sophomore Ricky Cavanaugh (seven tackles in five games last fall).

Sensing a need for more depth, Sherman and his staff signed five linebackers in the team’s 2009 recruiting class; one, Jonathan Stewart, may be good enough to push his way onto the field as a true freshman. Another position battle to watch is at running back, where the favorite to supplant Goodson is the sophomore Cyrus Gray (363 yards rushing). The sophomore Bradley Stephens is also in competition for the top job, but keep an eye out for the incoming freshman Christine Michael, one of the top high school running backs in the 2009 class and one of the highest-ranked recruits in recent A&M history.

2009 schedule:
Sept. 5 New Mexico
Sept. 19 Utah State
Sept. 26 U.A.B.
Oct. 3 Arkansas (in Dallas)
Oct. 10 Oklahoma State
Oct. 17 @ Kansas State
Oct. 24 @Texas Tech
Oct. 31 Iowa State
Nov. 7 @ Colorado
Nov. 14 @ Oklahoma
Nov. 21 Baylor
Nov. 26 Texas

Game(s) to watch: In nonconference play, A&M meets its old SWC rival Arkansas for the first time since 1991. The two teams will meet every year through 2018, with the potential to extend the series even further. The Countdown is excited. In the Big 12, Aggie Nation always circles Texas as the game of the year, but the more important game in 2009 is Baylor, as that game will decide who finishes last in the South.

Season breakdown & prediction: Regardless of how poorly equipped Sherman may be to handle this job, or how inept the defense was a season ago, the Aggies should be able to roll out of bed and reach six wins this fall. Why? A 3-0 start should be a guarantee, for starters, despite last fall’s slip-up to Arkansas State. From there, Arkansas may be a toss-up, but A&M will have momentum and probably a pro-Aggie crowd in its favor. Let’s say, for argument’s sake, the Aggies lose to the Razorbacks, leaving them 3-1 as it enters Big 12 play. I give the team one win over Iowa State, one out of Kansas State and Colorado, and a third win over Baylor. Yes, the Baylor team that pushed the Aggies around a season ago. But this game is in College Station, where the Bears haven’t won since 1984. So that’s my prediction: 6-6, but no better. One thing is clear: A&M is as far off the two big dogs – Oklahoma and Texas – as it has been in some time.

Dream season: The tide turns in one season: 10-2, 6-2 in the Big 12, with wins over Baylor and Texas.

Nightmare season: It may not represent a worse record than last fall, but another 4-8 season and last-place finish in the South would be disastrous.

Where Texas A&M fans congregate: As one would expect with a bigger program, the independent sites are coming fast and furious: the best is TexAgs.com, but don’t forget about AgTimes.com and AggiesFans.com. For recruiting news, visit AggieYell.com and AggieWebsider.com.

Who is No. 71?: The next time you visit this university, impress the locals by ordering a loco moco at any of the area’s many, many roadside eateries. If you’re like me, you order the loco moco with teriyaki chicken, and don’t skimp on that macaroni salad.

#71 Link

The Quad Countdown: No. 71 Hawaii

Location: Honolulu.

Nickname: Warriors.

2008 Countdown ranking: No. 65.

What I predicted in last year’s preview:

The first team from the final 2007 A.P. top 25 to crack the Countdown, Hawaii is bound to take a step back after a magical season. This is due to a perfect storm of obstacles: replacing a legendary coach and the meat of a talented roster in the same off-season. While I think Hawaii will struggle, it is still a bowl-caliber team. I predict an 8-5 finish, good for fourth in the WAC. Worse than 2007, for sure, but making a bowl appearance in the first year under McMackin would be a good omen for the direction of the program.
Postseason re-ranking: No. 63.

2008 record and recap: (7-7, 5-3). Though well off its recent clip, last fall’s finish gave Hawaii fans reason to believe that, yes, there is life after June Jones. Yes, the program did not fall completely off the map in either the WAC – finishing second behind Boise State – or in the national picture, taking Big East champion Cincinnati down to the wire in a late-season game and facing off against Notre Dame in the Hawaii Bowl. But the questions that plagued last year’s preview still remain. I wondered if Hawaii’s offensive magic would leave along with Jones: the result was a slide from averaging 43.4 points per game in 2007 to 24.6 last fall. Yes, losing Colt Brennan and the receiver corps played a large role in that decline, but you can’t discount how skilled June Jones was in diagramming and implementing a passing attack. I wondered if Coach Greg McMackin could reload a season after losing so many key offensive weapons: the quarterback situation remained unsolved for much of the first half of the season, and U.H. finished without a 1,000-yard receiver for the first time this decade. Questions abound, but credit must be given to McMackin and his team for persevering through a schedule that included both the normal eight WAC games and five games against B.C.S.-conference opposition, including three teams in the final A.P. top 25. A new question for 2009: the offense returns plenty of starting talent, but can the team overcome losing nine starters off its defense?

High point: Three impressive WAC victories: by 32-29 at Fresno State, by 24-14 over Louisiana Tech and by 38-31 over Nevada. Hawaii held off the Wolf Pack thanks to a touchdown strike with less than a minute left, ending a 14-point turnaround by Nevada that tied the game at 31-31.

Low point: A loss to Boise State might have been expected, but few predicted Hawaii to lose to San Jose State and Utah State, even with the latter coming on the road. But the Aggies topped the Warriors, 30-14, to earn their first win in the series since 1966. In the previous three meetings, Hawaii beat Utah State by the average final score of 55-23. The vast majority of the college football world was pulling for U.H. over Notre Dame in the Hawaii Bowl, but the Irish came away with a blowout victory.

Tidbit: This season marks the 100th year of Hawaii football, though the team did not field a team from 1912-14, 1942-45 and 1961. In 1961, the Hawaii administration voted to abolish the football program, though the new athletic director, Young Suk Ko, brought the team back the next season. For a great series detailing the history of the program, check out The Centurions, a list from The Honolulu Star-Bulletin detailing the top 100 players in school history. It’s a countdown, if you will.

Former players in the N.F.L.: 20 – DE Ikaika Alama-Francis (Detroit Lions), WR Davone Bess (Miami Dolphins), QB Colt Brennan (Washington Redskins), CB Jameel Dowling (Arizona Cardinals), K Jason Elam (Atlanta Falcons), OG Kynan Forney (San Diego Chargers), WR C.J. Hawthorne (Buffalo Bills), OT Wayne Hunter (Jets), C Jake Ingram (New England Patriots), WR Ashley Lelie (Oakland Raiders), DT Josh Leonard (Houston Texans), OG Vince Manuwai (Jacksonville Jaguars), P Mat McBriar (Dallas Cowboys), CB Ryan Mouton (Tennessee Titans), DE Melila Purcell (Cleveland Browns), C Samson Satele (Oakland Raiders), DE Isaac Sopoaga (San Francisco 49ers), LB Pisa Tinoisamoa (Chicago Bears), LB Jeff Ulrich (San Francisco 49ers), DE David Veikune (Cleveland Browns).

Top five N.F.L. players from Hawaii: Though Cole didn’t start his college career with the Warriors, he was the first great N.F.L. player that Hawaii ever produced. He is followed by a pair of Super Bowl-winning linemen in Sapolu and Tuinei. Elam’s one of the best kickers of his generation. The end result? A mediocre group, though the top four players on the list combined to play in more than a dozen Super Bowls. That should count for something.

1. DE Larry Cole (Dallas; 1968-80)
2. C Jesse Sapolu (San Francisco; 1983-97)
3. OT Mark Tuinei (Dallas; 1983-97)
4. K Jason Elam (Denver, Atlanta; 1993-2008)
5. TE Ron Hall (Tampa Bay, Detroit; 1987-95)

Tidbit (restaurant edition): Much, much more important, what are the five best restaurants in the Honolulu area? I’m no expert in this matter, so I enlisted someone who is: Neal Myerberg, the father of the Countdown, whose Honolulu-based company has had him making the rounds at the local eateries for the last 25 years. What follows is his top five restaurants in the Honolulu area.

1. Sushi King (King St.): You haven’t seen sashimi until you’ve been to S.K.
2. Little Village (Smith St.): Mrs. Chan and her chicken-chive pot stickers.
3. Happy Day (Waialae Ave.): Lisa, the tireless proprietor, works from dawn till midnight.
4. Liliha Seafood: Nothing better than Chinese food on the way to the airport.
5. Saigon Express: A Vietnamese stall in Waikiki’s International Market. (Paul’s note: Had this for lunch three times in six days during my last trip to Hawaii.)

Team

Conference: Western Athletic.

Head coach: Greg McMackin (’69 Southern Oregon), 7-7 after one season with the Warriors. He did a fine job leading U.H. to its third straight bowl trip last fall, though the team did lose five wins off its 12-win total of 2007. Perhaps the most difficult task McMackin faced was stepping into the large shoes left by his predecessor, June Jones, who is credited with bringing Hawaii from the brink of irrelevance in 1999 to a B.C.S. bowl in his final season. Last year’s mission of replacing Colt Brennan and most of the Hawaii offense pales in comparison. Impressively, McMackin was able to keep a solid on-field performance while rallying a U.H. fan base disillusioned by the circumstances of Jones’s departure. After a single season as the Hawaii defensive coordinator in 2007, when he oversaw a unit that improved from 93rd nationally in total defense to 34th, McMackin was promoted from within the staff to replace Jones. Though this is McMackin’s first head coaching job, he certainly had the résumé to justify Hawaii’s faith. In addition to two separate stints at U.H. (1999 and 2007), McMackin served as defensive coordinator at Utah, Navy, Texas Tech and Miami (Fla.), and has been the associate head coach for the Seattle Seahawks (1995-98) and San Francisco 49ers (2003-5), both times under his good friend Dennis Erickson. He has been involved in the two greatest seasons in Hawaii’s history: the nine-game turnaround in 1999, Jones’s first season, and U.H.’s run to the B.C.S. in 2007. Though replicating his predecessor’s success may be too tall an order for McMackin to accomplish, last fall marked an auspicious debut for the humble longtime assistant. Can he get the Warriors back into postseason play in 2009?

Tidbit (coaching edition): Two coaching tidbits to pass along. First, the brother Ron and Cal Lee serve as Hawaii’s offensive and defensive coordinator, respectively, making them – to the best of the Countdown’s knowledge – the only brother pair to serve as F.B.S. coordinators at the same school. Second, McMackin has popularized “Aloha Fridays,” when he wears slippers (flip-flops for the rest of us) to Friday practice. One local slipper company, Scott Hawaii, will be making a McMackin-style slipper (name still to be decided), with a portion of proceeds going to the Hawaii booster club.

Returning starters: 9 (7 offense, 2 defense).

Key losses: This is a rarity on the Countdown, but I’m going to start with the defense. That side of the ball must replace nine starters, five of whom were all-conference performers: end David Veikune, tackle Keala Watson, linebackers Solomon Elimimian and Adam Leonard and cornerback Ryan Mouton. Oh, so that’s all? These five brought tremendous production to their starting roles, especially the linebackers Elimimian and Leonard. Elimimian graduated as the program’s all-time tackles leader (434; 121 last fall, 10.5 for loss, 4 sacks) and was the 2008 co-WAC defensive player of the year, an award he shared with San Jose State’s Jarron Gilbert. Leonard, whose final season saw him post 88 tackles (9 for loss), second on the team, was a three-time all-conference selection (first team as a senior). At end, the standout pass-rusher Veikune led the team in tackles for loss with 16.5 and in sacks with 9; his next closest competitor in those two categories was Elimimian. The former Colorado transfer totaled 25 tackles for loss and 16 sacks over his final two seasons. The entire secondary must be rebuilt: in addition to Mouton, the team lost fellow cornerback Jameel Dowling and safeties Erik Robinson and Keao Monteilh. There is not too much to be worried about on offense, though the team lost starting wide receivers Michael Washington (a team-leading 62 receptions, 789 yards, 6 touchdowns) and Aaron Bain (52 for 557, 6 scores). One thing we know about U.H. football: the team always, always has wide receivers. The same could be said about offensive linemen, though the team may struggle replacing tackle Keoni Steinhoff (27 straight starts to end his career) and guard Lafu Tuioti-Mariner. This duo held down the right side of the U.H. line as seniors. Also gone to graduation is Keith AhSoon, who started two of the season’s first three games at left tackle and the final three at left guard.

Players to watch: The Warriors can trace a late-season push offensively on the coaching staff’s decision to make the senior quarterback Greg Alexander the permanent starter. Alexander, a JUCO transfer, split time in the first half of the season with the senior Inoke Funaki (since moved to running back), but started the final six games of the season; he took over the starting role after a terrific second-half performance against Nevada, propelling the Warriors to the win. For the season, Alexander threw for 1,895 yards and 14 touchdowns (against only 5 picks), completing 62.9 percent of his passes. Yes, these numbers fall well short of Brennan’s lofty totals, but his play did more than enough to earn him the No. 1 spot this fall. As always, U.H. will have receivers to burn. The team brings back two starters in the junior Greg Salas (57 receptions, team-best 831 yards) and the senior Malcolm Lane (35 receptions for 613 yards, a team-best 17.5-yard average), as well as the junior running back-turned-receiver Kealoha Pilares (29 for 246). Another name to watch for is the junior college enrollee Rodney Bradley. I touted the senior running back Leon Wright-Jackson as a player to watch last fall, but the former Nebraska transfer totaled only 102 yards rushing and 70 yards receiving. He has too much talent to be so inefficient. Joining him at running back are the aforementioned Funaki, the senior Jayson Rego and the juniors Chizzy Dimude and Alex Green; the latter pair, JUCO transfers, could work into the mix immediately. Four players with starting experience return up front, none more important than the senior center John Estes, who enters his final season with 41 career starts. Estes has earned first-team all-WAC honors in each of the last two seasons, and is a contender for national recognition as a senior. The best news for the offensive line is the addition of coach Gordy Shaw, one of the most respected line coaches in the F.B.S. His primary concern will be improving the team’s all-important pass protection, as U.H. gave up 57 sacks a season ago; even in this pass-happy system, that’s too many. There may be issues on defense. One fact standing in Hawaii’s favor is McMackin’s defensive background, which may yield a surprising performance despite breaking in nine new starters. The senior end John Fonoti is the lone starter returning on the line. As a junior, Fonoti made 62 tackles (9.5 for loss) and 3.5 sacks; these totals ranked second to Veikune among all linemen. The only other lineman with starting experience is the sophomore tackle Vaughn Meatoga, who will take over for Josh Leonard at the right tackle spot. A player to watch is the junior Elliot Purcell, who was a meaningful part of the end rotation in 2008. At safety, keep an eye out for the JUCO transfer Aaron Brown, who is the favorite to replace Monteilh at strong safety. Brown was the highest rated recruit in Hawaii’s 2009 class. For more players to watch, including a look at linebacker and cornerback, read below.

Position battle to watch: With all due respect to the rest of the 2008 defensive starters, the Warriors will have a difficult time replacing only four contributors: Elimimian, Adam Leonard, Mouton and Veikune. This quartet not only provided tremendous production, but in the case of the first three, rank among the best players U.H. has ever produced at their positions. Let’s look at linebacker first. The Warriors plan on using the senior Brashton Satele in the middle, where Elimimian started the final eight games of 2008. Satele is the cousin of the former Warriors Hercules and Samson Satele (what names!), so he has the bloodlines, obviously. He also has the size – 6 feet 1 inch, 255 pounds – to stand up in the middle. (Quick aside: If there’s one thing I’ve learned about the U.H. roster, it’s to never believe a player’s listed weight. And to always double-check my spelling.) Hawaii will look toward the seniors R.J. Kiesel-Kauhane and Blaze Soares at the two outside spots. Linebacker will not so much see a “position battle” as a fight to see who can replace Elimimian and Leonard’s production. Can this threesome step up? The junior Jeremy Bryant and the senior Chris Black stand atop the depth chart at cornerback, but they’ll need to hold off the freshman Lewis Walker and the juniors Melvin Hopkins and Lametrius Davis to earn the starting nods.

2009 schedule:
Sept. 4 Central Arkansas
Sept. 12 Washington State (in Seattle)
Sept. 19 @ U.N.L.V.
Sept. 30 @ Louisiana Tech
Oct. 11 Fresno State
Oct. 17 @ Idaho
Oct. 25 Boise State
Oct. 31 @ Nevada
Nov. 7 Utah State
Nov. 14 New Mexico State
Nov. 21 @ San Jose State
Nov. 28 Navy
Dec. 5 Wisconsin

Game(s) to watch: Hawaii will play a 13-game schedule for the second straight season. Like last year, it may have a Hawaii Bowl birth sealed up before the home finale, but I’m still interested in seeing how teams like Navy and Wisconsin handle a late-season trip off the mainland. In WAC play, Hawaii’s games with Louisiana Tech, Fresno State and Nevada will determine who finishes second to Boise State in the final standings. Did I just give away my WAC champion?

Season breakdown & prediction: It’s a role reversal for the 2009 Warriors, who go from having a questionable offense and a talented defense to vice versa. If this team could return last year’s defense and combine it with what will be an improved offensive unit, I would have U.H. as the second-best team in the WAC. However, I don’t think McMackin and his staff will be able to offset losing nine starters on this side of the ball, five of whom earned all-WAC honors on at least one occasion. So where do I put the Warriors in the WAC pecking order? Fifth, in terms of where it falls on the Countdown, but in a tie with Fresno State and Louisiana Tech for third. I like the offense, which returns seven starters, and think it can make great strides over its mediocre performance of a season ago. Obviously, my often-repeated concerns over the defense limit my faith in Hawaii’s conference title hopes, but I believe the unit will do enough to allow U.H. to make another trip to the Hawaii Bowl. I think the Warriors will match last fall’s 7-6 regular season; if, somehow, the defense remains strong, eight wins is well within the range of possibility.

Dream season: Despite its major losses on defense, Hawaii puts it all together in a 10-3 regular season. The Warriors finish tied with Boise State atop the WAC.

Nightmare season: The offense is average and the defense suspect. For the first time since 2000, the Warriors finish with less than five wins: 4-9, 3-5 in the WAC.

Where do Hawaii fans congregate: The chatter at WarriorSportsNetwork.com is as good as it gets, especially for a non-B.C.S.-conference team. You can find additional U.H. football talk at SportsHawaii.com. For an in-depth look at the program, take a look at Stephen Tsai’s blog for The Honolulu Advertiser.

Who is No. 70?: Both our next university’s football stadium and a nearby stretch of highway (down to the viaduct, I believe) is named after its current head coach.

(06-22-2009 10:15 AM)NCowl Wrote:  Who is No. 70?: Both our next university’s football stadium and a nearby stretch of highway (down to the viaduct, I believe) is named after its current head coach.

K-State ???