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On the Road to the Elite 8
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omniorange Offline
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Post: #1
On the Road to the Elite 8
Since the field expanded to 64 teams -

A #1 seed has faced a #12 seed 14 times and won all 14. This bodes well for the Cards, the only such match-up this year. Of course, there is a first time for everything. 05-stirthepot

A #1 seed has faced a #5 seed 32 times and have gone 28-4. This bodes well for UConn, the only such match-up this year. Interestingly the last two times the top seed lost, Duke was the #1 seed. But it also happened to UConn back in 1996 when they were beaten by Mississippi State. You remember Huskies' fans, the team we beat in the Final Four to face Kentucky in the championship game. 03-wink

A #1 seed has faced a #4 seed 33 times and have gone 23-10. While this also bodes well for Pitt and UNC, it is hardly a slam dunk. It wouldn't surprise me to see either of them lose (Pitt because of the style of their play and UNC because of Lawson's toe and no longer playing in Carolina). There have been 11 years in which at least two 1 vs. 4 match-ups have taken place. In 5 of those years, one of the fours won. However, only one of the 10 wins by a 4 seed over a 1 seed has been by a team outside a power conference - UNLV over Arizona back in 1988-89.

A #2 seed has faced a #3 seed 29 times and is 19-10. There are 4 such match-ups in this tourney. Statistically at least one 3 seed is going to win, possibly 2, but probably no more than 2. There have been 7 years in which at least two match-ups pitted the 2/3 and in 5 of those years at least one 3 seed advanced to the Elite 8.

Of course, this is only a statistical analysis and after Friday, the results will simply be added to the above.

Here's hoping all the 3 seeds win! Or at least the RIGHT 3 seed wins.

LET'S GO ORANGE!!!

Cheers,
Neil
(This post was last modified: 03-23-2009 07:26 PM by omniorange.)
03-23-2009 07:13 PM
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BatonRougeEscapee Offline
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Post: #2
RE: On the Road to the Elite 8
Syracuse and Nova have the toughest games on paper. I think at least one will win.

Louisville faces an Arizona team with 3 legitimate stars, but you have to figure the Cards will prevail if they show up mentally.

I think UCONN rolls and Pitt grinds one out again.

Just a note, in 2005 Louisville the 4 seed beat Washington the 1 seed. Louisville was still in CUSA and thus qualifies as a second victory for the non big six over a one seed from a major conference.
03-23-2009 07:42 PM
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CollegeCard Offline
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Post: #3
RE: On the Road to the Elite 8
(03-23-2009 07:13 PM)omnicarrier Wrote:  Since the field expanded to 64 teams -

A #1 seed has faced a #12 seed 14 times and won all 14. This bodes well for the Cards, the only such match-up this year.

Cheers,
Neil

As well Neil, Pitino is 8-0 for his career in Sweet 16 games. He has been excellent with the week to prepare for the 3rd round opponent.

As you basically said, these two stats don't put any points on the scoreboard Friday, but if UofL does lose, it will be setting two precedents.
03-23-2009 07:48 PM
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omniorange Offline
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RE: On the Road to the Elite 8
(03-23-2009 07:42 PM)BatonRougeEscapee Wrote:  Syracuse and Nova have the toughest games on paper. I think at least one will win.

Actually I'd say Nova has the easiest game of the four. Duke is extremely vulnerable as they proved playing Texas in the second round. Had the Longhorns drove more to the basket they'd have pulled out that game. Their ACC tourney run wasn't impressive to me since they basically beat Maryland and FSU to win.

Of course, this doesn't mean they will lose. They are a good team. But ultimately, they are the weakest of the 2s, whereas Nova is most probably the strongest of the 3s.

Quote:Just a note, in 2005 Louisville the 4 seed beat Washington the 1 seed. Louisville was still in CUSA and thus qualifies as a second victory for the non big six over a one seed from a major conference.

Non-BCS, but at that time C-USA was clearly a power conference in bb routinely getting multi-bids every year (an average of 4 per year the last 5 years or so prior to BE expansion). I liken it back to the old Metro Conference, which was considered to be on the same level as the traditional power conferences when it was in its prime.

Cheers,
Neil
03-23-2009 09:14 PM
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CardFANATIC Offline
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RE: On the Road to the Elite 8
(03-23-2009 09:14 PM)omnicarrier Wrote:  
(03-23-2009 07:42 PM)BatonRougeEscapee Wrote:  Syracuse and Nova have the toughest games on paper. I think at least one will win.

Actually I'd say Nova has the easiest game of the four. Duke is extremely vulnerable as they proved playing Texas in the second round. Had the Longhorns drove more to the basket they'd have pulled out that game. Their ACC tourney run wasn't impressive to me since they basically beat Maryland and FSU to win.

Of course, this doesn't mean they will lose. They are a good team. But ultimately, they are the weakest of the 2s, whereas Nova is most probably the strongest of the 3s.

Quote:Just a note, in 2005 Louisville the 4 seed beat Washington the 1 seed. Louisville was still in CUSA and thus qualifies as a second victory for the non big six over a one seed from a major conference.

Non-BCS, but at that time C-USA was clearly a power conference in bb routinely getting multi-bids every year (an average of 4 per year the last 5 years or so prior to BE expansion). I liken it back to the old Metro Conference, which was considered to be on the same level as the traditional power conferences when it was in its prime.

Cheers,
Neil

Indeed the CUSA was much better back in this time period. The biggest loser in all the re-shuffling? Charlotte! Talking about a program that fell off the map. They were an annual tourney team and had some really exciting players in Diego Guevara and others!
03-24-2009 12:46 AM
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Tigeer Offline
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Post: #6
RE: On the Road to the Elite 8
(03-24-2009 12:46 AM)CardFANATIC Wrote:  
(03-23-2009 09:14 PM)omnicarrier Wrote:  
(03-23-2009 07:42 PM)BatonRougeEscapee Wrote:  Syracuse and Nova have the toughest games on paper. I think at least one will win.

Actually I'd say Nova has the easiest game of the four. Duke is extremely vulnerable as they proved playing Texas in the second round. Had the Longhorns drove more to the basket they'd have pulled out that game. Their ACC tourney run wasn't impressive to me since they basically beat Maryland and FSU to win.

Of course, this doesn't mean they will lose. They are a good team. But ultimately, they are the weakest of the 2s, whereas Nova is most probably the strongest of the 3s.

Quote:Just a note, in 2005 Louisville the 4 seed beat Washington the 1 seed. Louisville was still in CUSA and thus qualifies as a second victory for the non big six over a one seed from a major conference.

Non-BCS, but at that time C-USA was clearly a power conference in bb routinely getting multi-bids every year (an average of 4 per year the last 5 years or so prior to BE expansion). I liken it back to the old Metro Conference, which was considered to be on the same level as the traditional power conferences when it was in its prime.

Cheers,
Neil

Indeed the CUSA was much better back in this time period. The biggest loser in all the re-shuffling? Charlotte! Talking about a program that fell off the map. They were an annual tourney team and had some really exciting players in Diego Guevara and others!

I have not really thought about Charlotte being the biggest loser as the result of re-shuffling, but you are on to something there. Personally considered Memphis as such as it lost for good two of its traditional rivals, but at least the Tigers have found a niche. Time will only tell if that is primarly the result of Cal or the tradition Memphis does have.
03-24-2009 06:43 AM
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brista21 Offline
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Post: #7
RE: On the Road to the Elite 8
Well I'm rooting for Louisville, Pitt, Syracuse, and UConn as in my bracket I have these 4 picked to be the first ever Final Four from the same conference. Having this happen would stand to make me some money and also lend credence to the idea of the Big East Football schools being the best basketball conference in the nation.
03-24-2009 07:11 AM
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bitcruncher Offline
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Post: #8
RE: On the Road to the Elite 8
I'd love to see an all-BEast Final Four... 04-rock
03-24-2009 11:23 AM
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Gray Avenger Offline
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Post: #9
RE: On the Road to the Elite 8
(03-24-2009 12:46 AM)CardFANATIC Wrote:  Indeed the CUSA was much better back in this time period. The biggest loser in all the re-shuffling? Charlotte! Talking about a program that fell off the map.

Piss on Charlotte! I am glad that C-USA rid itself of all non-football parasites.
03-24-2009 12:32 PM
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aTxTIGER Offline
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RE: On the Road to the Elite 8
(03-24-2009 12:32 PM)Gray Avenger Wrote:  
(03-24-2009 12:46 AM)CardFANATIC Wrote:  Indeed the CUSA was much better back in this time period. The biggest loser in all the re-shuffling? Charlotte! Talking about a program that fell off the map.

Piss on Charlotte! I am glad that C-USA rid itself of all non-football parasites.

I dont say this often, but I agree with GA.....Good Riddance to 6BC.
03-25-2009 04:02 AM
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PGPirate Offline
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Post: #11
RE: On the Road to the Elite 8
Please please please PLEASSSE beat UNC and Duke. GO BIGEAST
03-25-2009 08:28 AM
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bitcruncher Offline
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RE: On the Road to the Elite 8
(03-25-2009 04:02 AM)aTxTIGER Wrote:  
(03-24-2009 12:32 PM)Gray Avenger Wrote:  
(03-24-2009 12:46 AM)CardFANATIC Wrote:  Indeed the CUSA was much better back in this time period. The biggest loser in all the re-shuffling? Charlotte! Talking about a program that fell off the map.
Piss on Charlotte! I am glad that C-USA rid itself of all non-football parasites.
I dont say this often, but I agree with GA.....Good Riddance to 6BC.
Becoming an all-sports conference is the best thing that could have happened to CUSA...
03-25-2009 09:40 AM
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omniorange Offline
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RE: On the Road to the Elite 8
(03-23-2009 07:13 PM)omnicarrier Wrote:  Since the field expanded to 64 teams -

A #1 seed has faced a #12 seed 14 times and won all 14. This bodes well for the Cards, the only such match-up this year. Of course, there is a first time for everything. 05-stirthepot

As expected, the Cards blew out Arizona.

Quote:A #1 seed has faced a #5 seed 32 times and have gone 28-4. This bodes well for UConn, the only such match-up this year. Interestingly the last two times the top seed lost, Duke was the #1 seed. But it also happened to UConn back in 1996 when they were beaten by Mississippi State. You remember Huskies' fans, the team we beat in the Final Four to face Kentucky in the championship game. 03-wink

Held to form here as well. UConn comfortably over the Boilermakers.

Quote:A #1 seed has faced a #4 seed 33 times and have gone 23-10. While this also bodes well for Pitt and UNC, it is hardly a slam dunk. It wouldn't surprise me to see either of them lose (Pitt because of the style of their play and UNC because of Lawson's toe and no longer playing in Carolina). There have been 11 years in which at least two 1 vs. 4 match-ups have taken place. In 5 of those years, one of the fours won. However, only one of the 10 wins by a 4 seed over a 1 seed has been by a team outside a power conference - UNLV over Arizona back in 1988-89.

Though Xavier gave it a valiant effort, the trend continues where a #1 seed does not lose to a #4 from a non power conference.

Quote:A #2 seed has faced a #3 seed 29 times and is 19-10. There are 4 such match-ups in this tourney. Statistically at least one 3 seed is going to win, possibly 2, but probably no more than 2. There have been 7 years in which at least two match-ups pitted the 2/3 and in 5 of those years at least one 3 seed advanced to the Elite 8.

Two #3s did indeed take down two #2s - Mizzou over Memphis and Nova over Duke.

So the statistical analysis held to form for a change.

Cheers,
Neil
03-27-2009 10:58 PM
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