http://myespn.go.com/blogs/bigeast/0-3-1...sited.html

Quote:Recruiting rankings revisited

January 30, 2009 8:00 AM

Posted by ESPN.com's Brian Bennett

My Pac-10 counterpart Ted Miller did this earlier in the week, and I'm blatantly stealing the idea. Want to know how accurate recruiting rankings are? Let's take a look at this year's All-Big East team and see how each player was rated by the two major star-system recruiting services (where the two differ, I note the high and low end):

OFFENSE

QB Pat White (two to three stars)

RB Donald Brown (two to three stars)

RB LeSean McCoy (four to five stars)

WR Mardy Gilyard (two stars)

WR Kenny Britt (three to four stars)

TE Nate Byham (four to five stars)

OT Will Beatty (one to two stars)

OT Ryan Stanchek (two stars)

OG George Bussey (zero to one star)

OG C.J. Davis (two stars)

C Eric Wood (two stars)

DEFENSE

DL Connor Barwin (two stars)

DL Cody Brown (two stars)

DL George Selvie (one to two stars)

DL Arthur Jones (three to two stars)

LB Scott McKillop (three stars)

LB Tyrone McKenzie (two to three stars)

LB Mortty Ivy (two stars)

CB Mike Mickens (two stars)

CB Darius Butler (one to two stars)

S Brandon Underwood (three stars)

S Courtney Greene (one to two stars)

Thoughts:

Big East teams don't get a lot of "five-star" guys, but plenty of four-star players make their way into the league. I find it very interesting that the only two players on this list to reach that level were McCoy -- a no-brainer -- and Byham, who had a solid but hardly spectacular year in a league without many productive tight ends.

Offensive linemen are probably the hardest guys to evaluate, and whoever was evaluating the Big East prospects proved that. Not one of the All-Big East first team offensive linemen earned more than two stars, and the former walk-on Bussey and left tackle Beatty were rated the same as your average throw-in prospect. This isn't a bad crop, either; Wood, Beatty and Stanchek should all get drafted, with Davis and Bussey having a shot, too.

And, yes -- someone really watched Selvie and Butler play and rated them as one-star prospects. That really happened. To be fair, Selvie played center in high school and his best quality -- desire -- is hard to measure. But we're talking about a two-time All-American. And Butler's athleticism is hard to deny.

I get that White was hard to judge as a quarterback, and that a lot of teams were recruiting him as a receiver or just an all-around athlete. But for him to garner only two or three stars is absurd. Here are some of the players who were ranked as the top dual-threat quarterbacks in 2004: Robbie Reid, Kirby Freeman, Nick Patton, Larry Lerlegan and D.T McDowell. Would you trade any of them for Pat White? Heck, would you trade all of them for Pat White?

There are always going to be can't-miss prospects, and there are going to be players who improve greatly through sheer hard work and maturation. Recruiting rankings can be a useful guide and fun to look at, but if you think they predict which players will turn out to be the best in their leagues, think again. Keep this list in mind come next Wednesday, and remember to curb your enthusiasm.

Yes there are going to be two star players that make it big and there are going to be four star players that become busts, but I think that if you did a study of them youll see that the success of the higher rated star is probably higher. So while stars do not guarantee success the odds are greater that it will happen

Not always. WVU's recruits generally fall in the rankings after signing with the Mountaineers. And recruits that sign with Michigan, USC, Notre Dame, and other schools that have historically been strong get ranked higher after signing with those programs. And West Virginia gets much more out of their recruits than those consistently ranked higher. Imagine that...

Bottom line is recruiting rankings are full of bias just like human polls.

FLA, Texas and CA kids generally get rated higher. Northeast kids are usually rated lower if they are rated at all.

BE kids tend to get rated fairly low if they get offers only from BE schools. Kids that go to ND, Ohio St, Michigan, Texas and USC are hyped to no tomorrow.

Some of the higher rated kids certainly work out, but they also overlooked a ton of kids.

Like I said earlier, those rankings are great but let's wait until they get on the field first. If I am a ND fan, I won't get too excited about the top 5 rated class yearly either. If history is any indication, those recruiting ratings mean jack when kids have to line up against each other.

I can't believe William Beatty was rated so low coming out of NY to UCONN. He might be one of the highest NFL draft kid ever from UCONN as an OT. We got another kid named Moe Petrus that got no attention from those ranking services. The guy might be an all American before he is done. It is not some miracle UCONN's OL is one of the best in the BE. It is due to talent that were recruited but completely overlooked by these recruiting guys.

obviously, not 100%, but there is a positive correlation of top 25 recruiting classes and actual top 25 rankings.

(01-30-2009 03:30 PM)TIGER-PAUL Wrote:  obviously, not 100%, but there is a positive correlation of top 25 recruiting classes and actual top 25 rankings.

I don't know if I agree with that. I think it has more to do with what coach is coaching at what team during that time.

ESPN just came out with a great article on college football recruiting. They wrote the article based on a coach recruiting service never talk to. UCONN's very own Randy Edsall. Maybe Randy's talent evaluation is getting some respect from ESPN of all places.

http://sports.espn.go.com/ncf/columns/st...id=3871726

Quote:Print and Go Back ESPN.com: College Football [Print without images]

Friday, January 30, 2009
Recruiting trail dos and don'ts
By Ivan Maisel
ESPN.com

You're a 25-year-old graduate assistant who's just gotten your first full-time college coaching gig. You're given a car, an expense account, some snappy golf shirts with the team logo and a territory to recruit. The head coach sends you out the door and into the high school world and wishes you good luck.

Oh, and one more thing: Don't come back without players who will win a conference championship.

What do you do?

With the arrival of signing day looming, we presented that scenario to several head coaches, active, retired and between jobs. What's the first thing you teach a new recruiter?

Because UConn head coach Randy Edsall responded with 10 rules, a form of wisdom first found in the Book of Exodus, we took his rules, consolidated them with what we learned from the other coaches, and developed the Ten Commandments for learning how to recruit.

If it sounds too biblical, don't forget: You have to read only as far as Chapter 3 in Genesis before you witness the world's first recruiting violation.

According to the text, the serpent, which offered improper inducements to Eve, remains on probation.

1. Be yourself. Don't try to be somebody you're not. Develop your own style.
Easy to say, hard for a young coach to do. Nobody did it better than former Oklahoma coach Barry Switzer. In his book "Bootlegger's Boy," the Arkansas native stole future All-America tight end Keith Jackson out of Little Rock because, as Jackson said, "My mother said you were the only coach that made her feel comfortable in her own home."

Mack Brown
Mack Brown and his staff emphasize recruiting prospects with character and leadership.

2. Recruit intelligence. Recruit work ethic. Recruit character.
"He has to have the ability to start at Texas and win the Big 12 championship," Longhorn coach Mack Brown said. "Then you want a guy from a winning program. You want a guy from a family with values. We used to say with two parents. With families the way they are now, we say one really strong parent or two strong parents that don't live together. We'd look for him to have a 3.0 [grade-point average] in the core [classes]. We want a leader on the team and in the school and in the community. And look for him to be a captain.

"We've found in my 26 years that if you get the large majority of those values, he has a high-percentage chance to make it.

3. Be thorough.
"Cover all your bases," Edsall said. "Be thorough with everything you do. Don't shortchange the process. … Have a plan with each phone call, e-mail or visit. Don't go in there without having a game plan. You got to make sure you're going to hit on the point you want to make."

And not one game plan, either.

"It's different for every kid," North Carolina head coach Butch Davis said. "They're all going to be different."

Davis insists that his assistants visit every high school in the state of North Carolina every year.

"The first thing that all young coaches must do is build relationships with the high school coaches in your area," Davis said. "You have to build credibility with them. They have to know you're going to come there whether they have a player or not. Coaches will say, 'School such-and-such, I'm not going to go out of my way to help them because they only show up when I have a superstar.' … They may never have a player. We're going to make sure the coaches feel like we're there to help them."

Butch Davis
Butch Davis warns his staff to stay away from negative recruiting.

4. Gather information. Don't give it.
"Very, very important," Edsall said. "When young people get into the profession, they want to be around more experienced coaches. Don't tell people who you're recruiting. Don't give secrets away. … As a young guy, you've got to be a sponge. Keep your mouth shut and absorb as much as you can and not think you know it all.

Above all, listen.

"Talk to as many people in the school as possible," Edsall said. "Talk to counselors. Talk to coaches. Talk to janitors so that you can find out everything you might find out. … I tell my coaches, if you're going down the hallway, just ask a student what they think of him."

When you're through listening, figure out how to value what you've learned. This coach gives you the straight dope. That coach is dead-on about opposing players but oversells his own.

All of which leads to one of the most important lessons to be learned:

5. Make your own evaluation.
The ability to see a skinny 16-year-old for what he could be at 21 is, as Davis put it, "the craft and the art of evaluation." The trick is to learn what to value and what to ignore.

Tommy Tuberville, looking for work after 14 years at Ole Miss and Auburn, described an evaluator as part geneticist.

"How much weight can he gain?" Tuberville asked. "You're looking at his parents, looking at his brothers and sisters."

Davis said the facilities that the player has available to him in high school can lay a trap for a recruiter.

"You may be buying the finished product," Davis said. "There's a little bit of that in Texas. Those schools have got more money than God. They have a strength coach, 15 high school coaches. The players have been in the same program since sixth or seventh grade. You get them and four years later they are the exact same player.

"You go to Pahokee, Fla., where a kid eats once a day, his parents may not be around," Davis said. "You get him in a weightlifting program. Two years later, he's three times better than the kid from Texas."

Jack Siedlecki just retired as a head coach with a record of 126-71-2 (.638) after 21 seasons in Division III and, for the last 12 seasons, at Yale.

"You've got to find the right guy for your program," said Siedlecki, now an assistant athletic director at Yale. "You can tell me you talk to every kid in the ESPN 150. Not a one is coming here, and not a one can get in here. Recruit the recruitable kid."

Randy Edsall
Being thorough is one of Randy Edall's recruiting keys.

6. Be honest with the recruits, the parents and the high school coaches.
When every utterance a coach makes appears on a recruiting Web site before he finishes the sentence, the penalty for not being up-front can leave a mark.

"Making promises to kids will get you in trouble," Siedlecki said. "You say, 'I'm not sitting in your living room if I didn't think you were a great player. You have to come and compete. See what college football is all about.'"

Davis's voice rose as he described why he warns his staff not to engage in negative recruiting.

"Don't ever stoop to that level," Davis said. "There are things you'd love to say to parents or coaches who are naïve. It may help one year but it ends up developing [the reputation] that you don't have anything good enough to talk about at your place."

7. Zero in on the decision-maker.
It may be the dad. It may be the mom, or the girlfriend. Especially in Texas, where high school coaches often don't teach, it may be the coach. The recruiter must find out who has the ear of the recruit and how to get to that person.

Siedlecki recalled being an assistant at Lafayette College and getting a commitment from a recruit and his father on a weekend visit to campus. He made a home visit two nights later.

"I was in the house less than two minutes when I knew he wasn't signing with us," Siedlecki said. "The mom didn't want him at Lafayette. I had never met her. It was a lesson learned."

8. Don't fall in love with a recruit until he signs.
He's your recruit, and you want to sign prospects in your area. But if he's not right for the program, you have to be able to see that.

"This is tough for a young coach," Edsall said. "He likes the kid and everything is going well. Now all of a sudden, things change. If a red flag comes up, or something with character or work ethic, you can't be afraid to pull back. Sometimes with young people, hey, it's not how many you sign, it's the quality."

Tommy Tuberville
Former Auburn coach Tommy Tuberville stressed making your own evaluations.

9. Persist. Persevere. Make one more phone call. Watch one more video.
This may sound like "Be Thorough," but the coaches emphasized the amount of work involved over and over again.

"You've got to spend a lot of time," Tuberville said. "The time you're given on your schedule is not enough. You've got to make time."

There is an old joke among college coaches that you can look at a roster and judge how hard the staff recruits. If most of the players have last names at the beginning of the alphabet, the coaches didn't make all their calls.

"You know that's a guy that recruited from a list," Siedlecki said.

"You can't be a guy who's going to take a list from Rivals or Scouts," Edsall said. "You have to be ready to put in time and effort to study the film. … You can't watch a highlight film. You also want to see a game film. You have to see bad plays, too."

The story goes that Bill Walsh, when at Stanford, used to ask his assistants to show him a recruit's 10 best plays and his 10 worst ones.

10. You have to like kids, and you have to like the kids you sign.
Recruiting is not for everyone.

"Recruiting is what separates guys who are good high school coaches from being college coaches," Siedlecki said. "I know good high school coaches. Recruiting is why they are not college coaches. You don't have to love it. You have to feel comfortable with it. … You put in a tremendous amount of time to get a very few kids."

Brown said that in 1992, when he coached at North Carolina, former Michigan coach Bo Schembechler came in as part of the television crew for his game. They went to dinner Thursday night.

"I asked him," Brown said, "how do you decide whom to take at the end? We'd have 12 guys for four spots, and you're scared to death."

Schembechler, who died in 2006, said, "In the end, all of them are probably what you want athletically or you wouldn't have recruited them. I would take the ones I liked and not take the ones I don't like. If he likes you, he'll play hard. If you don't like him, he'll find that out and he won't play hard."

So there they are, the Ten Commandments. There is one more, derived from the original Ten: Do not covet thy neighbor's assets -- unless it's a 17-year-old prospect who can squat 600 pounds.

Ivan Maisel is a senior writer for ESPN.com. Send your questions and comments to Ivan at Ivan.Maisel@ESPN3.com. His new book, "The Maisel Report: College Football's Most Overrated & Underrated Players, Coaches, Teams, and Traditions," is on sale now. For more information, go to TheMaiselReport.com.


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(01-30-2009 01:52 PM)SF Husky Wrote:  BE kids tend to get rated fairly low if they get offers only from BE schools. Kids that go to ND, Ohio St, Michigan, Texas and USC are hyped to no tomorrow.

Yea maybe they do get ranked higher for having offers from those schools. But if you think about it those are the same schools that are always in BCS bowl games (minus ND/Michigan cause of coaching) So what is it that those schools have over others? I think the talent separation is clear when watching USC or Texas play then the rest of the BE. Well at least this year it was.

(01-30-2009 06:03 PM)UltimateCFBfan Wrote:  

(01-30-2009 01:52 PM)SF Husky Wrote:  BE kids tend to get rated fairly low if they get offers only from BE schools. Kids that go to ND, Ohio St, Michigan, Texas and USC are hyped to no tomorrow.

Yea maybe they do get ranked higher for having offers from those schools. But if you think about it those are the same schools that are always in BCS bowl games (minus ND/Michigan cause of coaching) So what is it that those schools have over others? I think the talent separation is clear when watching USC or Texas play then the rest of the BE. Well at least this year it was.

You can reason it anyway you like, but the ALL BIG EAST team this year shows the recruiting rankings are full of crap outside a few schools. If they are any accurate, all those kids would be 4 or 5 stars out of the high school. They are not just good BE players, those kids can play with anyone in the country. I am sure recruiting stars would get some players right. I mean I can get my pet monkey to throw darts at a board full of players and some of the darts gonna hit a few that will be stars too.

USC get talent because Pete Carroll knows how to evaluate talent. You need talent, but you also need TALENT DEVELOPMENT which most of these services can't rate no matter how hard they try. A 170 lbs kid in high school can turn into a 200 lb FS in college. No way those recruiting stars can predict that.

Basketball ratings are a little more accurate since those kids get to play against each other in AAU etc. In football, there is no such thing so rankings are just some guy's opinion.

USC gets talent because within 50 miles of Pasadena there is some of the nation's most densely populated area. There's a sh!tload of talent within driving distance of campus. Few schools have it so easy...

But evaluating talent, and that hidden question within, is something that some coaches and schools excel at. Some are great at developing talent and bringing out their best, and some aren't. It's easy to see which is which by observation...

(01-30-2009 07:58 PM)SF Husky Wrote:  

(01-30-2009 06:03 PM)UltimateCFBfan Wrote:  

(01-30-2009 01:52 PM)SF Husky Wrote:  BE kids tend to get rated fairly low if they get offers only from BE schools. Kids that go to ND, Ohio St, Michigan, Texas and USC are hyped to no tomorrow.

Yea maybe they do get ranked higher for having offers from those schools. But if you think about it those are the same schools that are always in BCS bowl games (minus ND/Michigan cause of coaching) So what is it that those schools have over others? I think the talent separation is clear when watching USC or Texas play then the rest of the BE. Well at least this year it was.

You can reason it anyway you like, but the ALL BIG EAST team this year shows the recruiting rankings are full of crap outside a few schools. If they are any accurate, all those kids would be 4 or 5 stars out of the high school. They are not just good BE players, those kids can play with anyone in the country. I am sure recruiting stars would get some players right. I mean I can get my pet monkey to throw darts at a board full of players and some of the darts gonna hit a few that will be stars too.

USC get talent because Pete Carroll knows how to evaluate talent. You need talent, but you also need TALENT DEVELOPMENT which most of these services can't rate no matter how hard they try. A 170 lbs kid in high school can turn into a 200 lb FS in college. No way those recruiting stars can predict that.

Basketball ratings are a little more accurate since those kids get to play against each other in AAU etc. In football, there is no such thing so rankings are just some guy's opinion.

The reality is that Be doesnt get great ratings fo their recruits, so that could be why there are so many 2 stars in its all star team. Maybe it would be beter to look at the div1A all american team and compare there how many were two stars.

Below is Sporting News' All American Team - 1st and 2nd. Donald Brown is the only BE player who made the 1st team. I have no idea what those kids' recruiting rankings were. I just know there are a lot of kids from those big schools so I am assuming those are highly rated recruits. I don't know how much bias there are picking this list.

http://www.sportingnews.com/exclusives/2...505-p.html

1st Team All American

Quote:Sporting News' college football All-American First Team
December 17, 2008

Sporting News

This week, Sporting News magazine will name its college football award winners. Here's a look at SN's 2008 All-American First Team (to see the second team, click here):

OFFENSE

QB Sam Bradford, Soph., Oklahoma. Really, head-to-head numbers (vs. Colt McCoy and Graham Harrell) do matter. Despite OU's convoluted BCS argument.

RB Shonn Greene, Jr., Iowa. When Greene is the first running back taken in the NFL draft, you'll swear you watched all 13 Iowa games this season.

RB Donald Brown, Jr., Connecticut. UConn's passing game: four touchdowns, 17 interceptions. And Brown still led the nation in rushing.

WR Michael Crabtree, Soph., Texas Tech. The most skilled, dangerous wide receiver in the nation -- just ask Texas -- and a future star on Sundays.

WR Dez Bryant, Soph., Oklahoma State. Still raw in the technical aspects of the position but makes the unthinkable routine.

SN's 2008 COLLEGE FOOTBALL AWARDS
All-American First Team
All-American Second Team
All-Freshman Team
Best by conference

TE Jermaine Gresham, Jr., Oklahoma. A nightmare matchup for defenses and Bradford's go-to receiver when the Sooners need to make something happen.

T Michael Oher, Sr., Mississippi. Still learning the position and loaded with potential, he'll be a fixture for some lucky NFL team.

G Duke Robinson, Sr., Oklahoma. Big and nasty, and like most on the Sooners' fine line, a natural run blocker.

C Antoine Caldwell, Sr., Alabama. Smart and intense with a road-grading mentality. In other words, the perfect combination at center.

G Brandon Carter, Jr., Texas Tech. Don't let the crazy stares fool you; there are few more dedicated to the little things that evolve into the big things.

T Andre Smith, Jr., Alabama. Engulfs anything on the other side of the line in pass-protection situations.

K Louie Sakoda, Sr., Utah. Could've made this team as a punter, too; handles punts, field goals and kickoffs.

KR Michael Ray Garvin, Sr., Florida State. Easiest coaching duty: Find a world-class sprinter and put him on kick returns.

DEFENSE

DE Brian Orakpo, Sr., Texas. Once a year, we get a defensive player worthy of Heisman Trophy consideration. Here he is.

DT Terrence Cody, Jr., Alabama. Mount Cody, a 380-pounder, was the reason Alabama went from good to great on defense.

DT Gerald McCoy, Soph., Oklahoma. Two years ago, he was lazy and didn't work hard enough. Now look at him -- all grown up and controlling the interior.

DE Jerry Hughes, Jr., TCU. A former high school tailback who developed into the best pass rusher in the game.

LB Brandon Spikes, Jr., Florida. A big hitter who thrives in passing situations--both blitzing and in coverage.

LB Rey Maualuga, Sr., USC. The meanest player in the game; his once-chaotic style is much more controlled and fluid now.

LB James Laurinaitis, Sr., Ohio State. Three All-American years, and very little has changed: He's fast, he's versatile and he's always around the ball.

CB D.J. Moore, Jr., Vanderbilt. Has come a long way since his 2006 freshman season, when experienced SEC quarterbacks picked him apart.

CB Victor Harris, Sr., Virginia Tech. The flamboyant "Macho" has toned down the act and eliminated flaws in his game.

S Eric Berry, Soph., Tennessee. Has terrific instincts and breaks quickly on the ball -- plus, he finds the end zone after an interception.

S Taylor Mays, Jr., USC. A freak of physical ability; one of USC's three fastest players and its biggest hitter.

P T.J. Conley, Sr., Idaho. No position is more about numbers, and Conley's 47.4 yards per punt is ridiculous.

PR Brandon James, Jr., Florida. A diminutive sparkplug who takes big hits and has big moves.

All American 2nd Team

Quote:Sporting News' college football All-American Second Team
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Posted: December 17, 2008
Sporting News

This week, Sporting News magazine will name its college football award winners. Here's a look at SN's 2008 All-American Second Team (to see the first team, click here):

SECOND TEAM

OFFENSE

QB Tim Tebow, Florida, Jr.
RB Javon Ringer, Michigan State, Sr.
RB Kendall Hunter, Oklahoma State, So.
WR Jeremy Maclin, Missouri, So.
WR Austin Collie, BYU, Jr.
TE Chase Coffman, Missouri
OT Eugene Monroe, Virginia, Sr.
OT Phil Loadholt, Oklahoma, Sr.
G Seth Olsen, Iowa, Sr.
G Herman Johnson, LSU, Sr.
C Alex Mack, California, Sr.
K Graham Gano, Florida State, Sr.
KR Derrick Williams, Penn State, Sr.

DEFENSE

DE Aaron Maybin, Penn State, So.
DE Nick Reed, Oregon, Sr.
DT Peria Jerry, Mississippi, Sr.
DT Fili Moala, USC, Sr.
LB Scott McKillop, Pittsburgh, Sr.
LB Brian Cushing, USC, Sr.
LB Aaron Curry, Wake Forest, Sr.
CB Malcolm Jenkins, Ohio State, Sr.
CB Alphonso Smith, Wake Forest, Sr.
S Morgan Burnett, Georgia Tech, So.
S Rashad Johnson, Alabama, Sr.
P Kevin Huber, Cincinnati, Sr.
PR Kyle Wilson, Boise State, Jr.

(01-30-2009 07:58 PM)SF Husky Wrote:  

(01-30-2009 06:03 PM)UltimateCFBfan Wrote:  

(01-30-2009 01:52 PM)SF Husky Wrote:  BE kids tend to get rated fairly low if they get offers only from BE schools. Kids that go to ND, Ohio St, Michigan, Texas and USC are hyped to no tomorrow.

Yea maybe they do get ranked higher for having offers from those schools. But if you think about it those are the same schools that are always in BCS bowl games (minus ND/Michigan cause of coaching) So what is it that those schools have over others? I think the talent separation is clear when watching USC or Texas play then the rest of the BE. Well at least this year it was.

You can reason it anyway you like, but the ALL BIG EAST team this year shows the recruiting rankings are full of crap outside a few schools. If they are any accurate, all those kids would be 4 or 5 stars out of the high school. They are not just good BE players, those kids can play with anyone in the country. I am sure recruiting stars would get some players right. I mean I can get my pet monkey to throw darts at a board full of players and some of the darts gonna hit a few that will be stars too.

USC get talent because Pete Carroll knows how to evaluate talent. You need talent, but you also need TALENT DEVELOPMENT which most of these services can't rate no matter how hard they try. A 170 lbs kid in high school can turn into a 200 lb FS in college. No way those recruiting stars can predict that.

Basketball ratings are a little more accurate since those kids get to play against each other in AAU etc. In football, there is no such thing so rankings are just some guy's opinion.

You seriously think the rankings are wrong just because they missed a few two stars that ended up being good? Well why aren't you counting the 4 and 5 stars that ended up being good. Check out the Rivals top 25 in from 2006 and how they are doing now

1 Percy Harvin

2 Andre Smith

3 Chris Wells

4 Gerald McCoy

5 Sergio Kindle

6 Matthew Stafford

7 Vidal Hazelto

8 C.J. Spiller

9 Allen Bradford

10 Mitch Mustain

11 Sam Young

12 Myron Rolle

13 Brandon Spikes

14 Reshad Jones

15 Brandon Graham

16 Taylor Mays

17 Robert Rose

18 Stafon Johnson

19 A.J. Wallace

20 Al Woods

21 Ricky Sapp

22 Tim Tebow

23 C.J. Gable

24 Brandon Warren

25 Eddie Jones

Look at that list....how many of them are busts? Most of them are not only good but they are DOMINATING in college. Recruiting is not an perfect. That's impossible. They are not going to get it always right. There will be guys ranked high that become busts and there will be guys barely ranked that become superstars. Rutgers has had it's fair share of both. But there is no denying that teams that finish top 25 in recruiting almost always finish in the top 25. Personally I would take my chances with a list like that then with some two stars with no BCS offers.

If you look at the NFL draft last year. In the FIRST round:
5 were originally 5 star recruits
10 were originally 4 star recruits
8 were 3 stars
7 were 2 stars
1 had no stars
The top 10 in draft were all 3 stars or above
Now if im not mistaken there are more players that are 2 stars than 4 or 5 so if you look at that then those had a higher % at succeeding but there is also a chance for lower stars to move up.

All the ranking means is that the kid has so much talent that any idiot can spot it. Whether he utilizes that talent is another matter. Whether or not he's a head case is another matter. Those are things you can't measure, and no amount of scouting will show these atributes. Some kids breeze along, until something hard comes up and they fold. Some kids never stop breezing, and some work their butts off until it seems like they're breezing.

Chances are better for a 4-5 star recruit. But such rankings don't guarantee success. All it means is the kid has a lot of talent, and any idiot can see it. Talent can go a long way. But it can't take you all the way, and if you don't work at things, it won't even keep you on the field...

Jason Gwaltney is a prime example. He's got all the talent in the world, and was a bruising runner when he played. He, White, and Slaton would have made an unbeatable backfield for the Mountaineers. But he didn't work at anything, in the classroom or rehab. As a consequence, he went to some JC in NY (where he had trouble in the classroom), and is now trying to walk on again at WVU (his 2nd go 'round). I hope he makes it and gets his life turned around. But if he doesn't apply himself, he'll never amount to a hill of beans. The odds are against him now too...

Whole point of thread is not to say all 5 star recruits are busts. Certainly more 4 or 5 star recruits have better chance of making it to the NFL. That being said, it does not mean all 2 star recruits can't play. The point is these recruiting rankings miss a ton of talent simply because they did not commit to Texas, Florida or any of the traditional schools.

Bottom line is those rankings mean something to maybe top 100 players, that's all. Fans that thump their chests based on recruiting rankings gonna be pretty disappointed when their teams suck on the field.