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Based on the way this season has gone, all of the major projection sites have identified 6 potential "landmine" conference games for the Blazers. These are dangerous games, and the Blazers have to win at least 3 of these in my opinion to be on the right side of the FN Bubble Watch in March.

Here are the landmines:

Jan 10 @ Houston
Jan 17 @ Memphis
Jan 28 @ Tulsa
Feb 7 @ Southern Miss
Feb 26 Memphis
Mar 4 @ UTEP

As you can see, every game with the exception of Pissgate II is on the road. The Blazers must split these games, and take care of the rest of the conference slate. Assuming a win over ULaLa, splitting these games, winning the rest, and going 13-3 in C*USA would give UAB an expected RPI of 33.8.

Last season, the Blazers won big games against landmine opponents Houston and UTEP (away), but dropped a game to Marshall on the road, as well as the USM debacle. These are the kind of games the committee will be looking at on Selection Sunday.

I see two other landmines that we will be expected to win, but I would not be surprised if we lost or at least struggled mightily.

January 31 @ Marshall - We play at Tulsa on Wednesday and then have to be at Marshall on Saturday.

February 28 - @ East Carolina. We play at home against Memphis on Thursday late with the game ending around 10 or 10:30 depending on how many fights are broken up and then have to be in Greenville, NC less than 48 hours later.

The bench is too short for turnaround games like this involving travel. We should win, but these may be the games we were supposed to win.

I suspect we will have to do better than win half of those games, or we will be one of the top-5 highest RPI's ever left out of the tournament.

Landmine games
All of our remaining games are landmines.

It wouldn't be unthinkable for a UAB squad with an RPI in the 30s to get snubbed. If we go 13-3 in C*USA, finish at 23-8, and lose in the first round of the tourney, at 23-9 (with no wins against Memphis), we could get snubbed, especially if other non-BCS teams turn it on at the end of the season.

Formula to being a lock = 0 or 1 WTF loss + Mempiss win + win in conference tourney.

imo,
um is the only real competition in c-usa again this season. As of now, our rpi would get us in the ncaa's.
UAB losing to any other conf. team NOT named memphis on the road would be a bad loss. We can only afford one bad L [at best],
lest we become another bubble team in March.
unfortunately, we may have screwed the pooch by not notching a W @ either UL or Butler. Time will tell.
The UL loss will look ugly to the selection committee. I hate pulling for those UL a%&holes to have a great season.

(01-05-2009 03:27 PM)oldblazer79 Wrote:  imo,
um is the only real competition in c-usa again this season. As of now, our rpi would get us in the ncaa's.
UAB losing to any other conf. team NOT named memphis on the road would be a bad loss. We can only afford one bad L [at best],
lest we become another bubble team in March.
unfortunately, we may have screwed the pooch by not notching a W @ either UL or Butler. Time will tell.
The UL loss will look ugly to the selection committee.

So you are saying that in order for us to ever go to the NCAA's, we can never ever lose a conference road game, unless it is Memphis.

We almost made it last year with losses to Georgia Southern and Wichita State. It is not as dire as you think.

Look at the at large teams, BCS or non BCS that have made the tournament. They all have losses on the road in conference. It is a given that it will happen.

(01-05-2009 03:31 PM)Memphis Blazer Wrote:  

(01-05-2009 03:27 PM)oldblazer79 Wrote:  imo,
um is the only real competition in c-usa again this season. As of now, our rpi would get us in the ncaa's.
UAB losing to any other conf. team NOT named memphis on the road would be a bad loss. We can only afford one bad L [at best],
lest we become another bubble team in March.
unfortunately, we may have screwed the pooch by not notching a W @ either UL or Butler. Time will tell.
The UL loss will look ugly to the selection committee.

So you are saying that in order for us to ever go to the NCAA's, we can never ever lose a conference road game, unless it is Memphis.

We almost made it last year with losses to Georgia Southern and Wichita State. It is not as dire as you think.

Look at the at large teams, BCS or non BCS that have made the tournament. They all have losses on the road in conference. It is a given that it will happen.

please don't use words I didn't use to bolster your argument.
It is my opinion, in THIS c-usa, we can only afford one bad conf. loss [at best] to avoid becoming another bubble team in March.
Bubble team being defined as last 4 in/out. We could have avoided this with a W at either UL or Butler.
Once in conference play, our rpi WILL most certainly DROP because of who we play (um being the exception).
Couple the assured upcoming rpi drop with a loss to any other conf. team not named memphis, and see where our rpi levels.
If we lose more than one conf. match to anyone but memphis, we'll have to go deep into the conf. tourney to avoid the bubble, if we avoid it at all.

agree with MB here.

What we cannot afford is a bad home loss. We will lose on the road. So will memphis BTW.

Houston, however, is a very critical game--and it comes early in the conference season. A loss will be our first WTF of the year, although they may wind up Top 100. We need to get that one to get back on track. It would be nice to be 2-0 in conference play heading into the FEF.

Houston plays Arizona later in the year. That game may mean a lot to us by then.

I don't think it would be a WTF loss. Anyone besides UTEP, Houston or Memphis is a WTF loss in my opinion but I agree that it is a huge game for us as it may come down to us or them for a spot. It is as close to a must win as you can get this time of the year on the road.

You guys are overlooking a whole bunch of teams.
This is why I will not drink the kool-aid.

Tru dat. Although by textbook definition, USM and/or Tulsa may not be WTF losses, as those teams are projected to finish in the RPI Top 100. But they're still games that an NCAA Tournament team should win on the road.

(01-05-2009 04:50 PM)cb4029 Wrote:  You guys are overlooking a whole bunch of teams.
This is why I will not drink the kool-aid.

Nah CB...it's a given that we'll screw up at least once in conference play to a team not on the landmine list.

(01-05-2009 03:58 PM)FNblazer Wrote:  Houston, however, is a very critical game--and it comes early in the conference season. A loss will be our first WTF of the year, although they may wind up Top 100. We need to get that one to get back on track. It would be nice to be 2-0 in conference play heading into the FEF.

Reminds of the opener at Tulane last year. Not only might it be critical for our resume, but it could also be critical in determining how the rest of the season goes for each team.

(01-05-2009 04:52 PM)FNblazer Wrote:  

(01-05-2009 04:50 PM)cb4029 Wrote:  You guys are overlooking a whole bunch of teams.
This is why I will not drink the kool-aid.

Nah CB...it's a given that we'll screw up at least once in conference play to a team not on the landmine list.

Then just put all the teams on the landmine list. Problem solved.

"And boom goes the (landmine)."

I consider landmine games to be those we are expected to win and don't. I wouldn't include any of those six games you listed as landmine but moreso "quality" games that we need to at least get a split.

The landmine games to me are the ones you didn't list. JMHO.

(01-05-2009 03:55 PM)ATTALLABLAZE Wrote:  agree with MB here.

What we cannot afford is a bad home loss. We will lose on the road. So will memphis BTW.

+ 1 - The RPI formulia gives you 1.6 loses for a home lose.Assuming we do good UAB will wind up with an RPI in the low 40s (we are 35 now going into CUSA).

We need to beat Memphis(will top 30 RPI - 25 now) to build our resume and keep from being overlooked.