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The top of McCain's VP list
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THE NC Herd Fan Offline
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Post: #1
The top of McCain's VP list
Huckabee For VP?

U.S. News's James Pethokoukis reports that a McCain fundraiser has learned that Mike Huckabee is at the top of McCain's list of potential running mates.

Huckabee the VP?
05-19-2008 07:28 PM
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Fo Shizzle Offline
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RE: The top of McCain's VP list
He would probably be a good as anyone....The Jesus followers will like him and he would drag the independant vote in with the Fair Tax rethoric....Hes good for a laugh and would help him in the South.
05-19-2008 09:46 PM
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Owl 69/70/75 Offline
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RE: The top of McCain's VP list
I think Huckabee is the best choice. He can hold the religous conservatives in place, and get them to show up and vote, freeing McCain to take some centrist positions that will garner more votes (and more effective votes, since each additional vote from the center is also one less vote for the democrat nominee).

Barring a significant shift from current trends (not necesarily a good assumption, but all we have right now), this election comes down to four states--Florida, Pennsylvania, Ohio, and Michigan. If either candidate can win three, and add them to the states that would go red (or blue, as appropriate) in almost any case, that would probalby put him over the top. Obama lost all four to Hillary, primarily because he lost the "good old boy" vote and there are enough of them to matter in each of those states. Just stop for a moment to think of the implications of losing the "good old boy" vote to Hillary. Obama has a major gap to close there. Huckabee picking the guitar, and Chuck Norris doing his thing, will attract a large part of the good old boy crowd (and their wives). That could be enough to pull McCain through in three of the four, which could be just enough to win.
05-20-2008 12:29 AM
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Ninerfan1 Offline
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Post: #4
RE: The top of McCain's VP list
It doesn't matter who he picks. He's facing a 40 state defeat in November unless Obama makes a huge misstep.
05-20-2008 07:04 AM
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Post: #5
RE: The top of McCain's VP list
He needs to pick Sanford and be done with it.
05-20-2008 07:24 AM
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RE: The top of McCain's VP list
RebelKev Wrote:He needs to pick Sanford and be done with it.

HELL NO. I don't want to destroy Sanford's career for McLame. Same Sanford for 2012.
05-20-2008 07:40 AM
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RE: The top of McCain's VP list
georgia_tech_swagger Wrote:
RebelKev Wrote:He needs to pick Sanford and be done with it.

HELL NO. I don't want to destroy Sanford's career for McLame. Same Sanford for 2012.

McCain may not even make it to 2012 due to age and health.
05-20-2008 07:52 AM
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jh Offline
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RE: The top of McCain's VP list
That would be interesting to see. A President not intending to run for a second term but still with the opportunity to do so. Would it free him from some of the typical political pressures while avoiding the pitfalls of the lame duck (as long as noone else was certain he wasn't going to run again)?
05-20-2008 08:14 AM
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RE: The top of McCain's VP list
jh Wrote:That would be interesting to see. A President not intending to run for a second term but still with the opportunity to do so. Would it free him from some of the typical political pressures while avoiding the pitfalls of the lame duck (as long as noone else was certain he wasn't going to run again)?

McCain doesn't seem to suffer from any pitfalls anyway. He seems to do whatever the hell he wants, with no regards to his constituency.
05-20-2008 08:19 AM
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Post: #10
RE: The top of McCain's VP list
Ninerfan1 Wrote:It doesn't matter who he picks. He's facing a 40 state defeat in November unless Obama makes a huge misstep.

I don't know, it seems like HIllary is the stronger candidate now. a significant 3rd party run by bob barr could cause it to happen though. The current projections have obama losing Ohio and Fla and possibly Penn. Hillary would win all 3, she's a "hawk" now. scary

now the house and senate will be disasters for sure, although alot of it will be more Heath Shuler type conservative Dems. in purple to light red districts.
05-20-2008 08:55 AM
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RE: The top of McCain's VP list
Huck. is at the top b/c of the huge black turnout in the South obama will bring, to make sure the GOP holds the southern states. Plus his charisma.

not sure if Sanford would help in that area but he is southern, they both want it.
05-20-2008 08:56 AM
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Owl 69/70/75 Offline
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Post: #12
RE: The top of McCain's VP list
Ninerfan Wrote:It doesn't matter who he picks. He's facing a 40 state defeat in November unless Obama makes a huge misstep.

I'm not so sure about that. The talk about an Obama landslide sounds just like the talk of a Dukakis landslide at about this point in 1988, with one big difference. Dukakis was sitting on a double-digit lead in the polls. Obama is slightly ahead in popular vote polls, but if you look at it by state McCain would actually win the presidency today, with 285 electoral votes to Obama's 242 with Indiana undecided (based on most recent polls in each state). There are 15 states where McCain leads Obama by more than 10 percent. At least 5 of them would have to turn for your 40-state defeat scenario, and that is highly unlikely. There are also 8 states where McCain leads Obama by more than 5 percent, and these are also relatively unlikely to change absent a major shift. Those 23 states have 175 combined electoral votes. If McCain wins them, and adds Virginia, North Carolina, South Carolina, and Wisconsin (currently leading by 3% or more in each of them), and any three of the four of Ohio, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Florida (where McCain currently leads in 3 and where Obama lost all 4 to Hillary), then McCain has the elctoral votes for victory. He even has a little cushion in the form of 27 electoral votes in play from the aforementioned Indiana as well as Colorado and Iowa (where Obama leads McCain, but McCain has solid leads over Hillary, and Bush won in 2004).

Like Dukakis at a comparable point, Obama has recieved little media coverage to date that hasn't been of the fawning variety. When a few in the media took a more objective look at Dukakis, he faded pretty rapidly. Not saying that will happen with Obama, but I certainly see the potential.

I heard a quote attributed to an unidentified democrat leader the other day that makes a lot of sense. Hillary has very limited upside, becuase there is a solid 48 percent or so who hate her guts and would vote for almost anyone to keep her out of power, but Hillary also has a fairly high downside because she has been thoroughly vetted and because there are almost as many who would vote for her against almost anyone. Obama has a higher upside, but at this point he also has a lower downside.

I really think a huge unanswered question is whether the mainstream media will make some semblance of an effort to provide balanced coverage of the general election, or will they continue to play cheerleader for Barak. My guess is that they will try to remain cheerleaders but if there are too many more Jeremiah Wright type revelations they'll have to address whatever skeletons are in Obama's closet.

Robert Novak had an interesting comment in an interview the other day. He said that at least one member of Hillary's staff had suggested to him that there was some information that would make Obama "unelectable" (Novak's word, quoting the source), but that Hillary's campaign had not figured out how properly to disclose it. Novak's conclusion was that if it existed there was no reason for Hillary not to disclose it now, even awkwardly, so that it was probably not real. Other possibilities obviously include that there's something and it's real, but they haven't quite laid their hands on the smoking gun just yet. That would certainly explain why Hillary is staying in the race.
(This post was last modified: 05-20-2008 11:54 AM by Owl 69/70/75.)
05-20-2008 11:42 AM
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Fo Shizzle Offline
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Post: #13
RE: The top of McCain's VP list
GGniner Wrote:[quote=Ninerfan1]
It doesn't matter who he picks. He's facing a 40 state defeat in November unless Obama makes a huge misstep.

Quote: a significant 3rd party run by bob barr could cause it to happen though.

Any LP member that would vote for Bob Barr has NO principles and should just join the Rep. party. Bob Barr is trying to Republicanize the LP and if they allow it...I will be through with them...I support Dr. Mary Ruwart, author of the great book "healing our world" for the nod of the LP.
05-20-2008 07:10 PM
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Post: #14
RE: The top of McCain's VP list
Fo Shizzle Wrote:.I support Dr. Mary Ruwart, author of the great book "healing our world" for the nod of the LP.

she's also in favor of Child Porn
05-20-2008 07:33 PM
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jh Offline
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RE: The top of McCain's VP list
GGniner Wrote:
Fo Shizzle Wrote:.I support Dr. Mary Ruwart, author of the great book "healing our world" for the nod of the LP.

she's also in favor of Child Porn

Actually she's not. She's opposed to child pornography but believes that outlawing it increases the incentives for parents to allow their children to be exploited. She argues that outlawing child porn increases its supply. In fact (from another site), it appears that her response to this question begins with a statement that children forced into porn deserve the same protection as any other rape victim. You can argue whether or not she is right about her views on the incentives of child porn laws, but there is nothing to suggest that she supports child porn.

Quote:Children who willingly participate in sexual acts have the right to make that decision as well, even if it's distasteful to us personally. Some children will make poor choices just as some adults do in smoking and drinking to excess. When we outlaw child pornography, the prices paid for child performers rise, increasing the incentives for parents to use children against their will.
http://www.reason.com/blog/show/126164.html
05-20-2008 08:06 PM
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RE: The top of McCain's VP list
jh Wrote:Children who willingly participate in sexual acts have the right to make that decision as well, even if it's distasteful to us personally. Some children will make poor choices just as some adults do in smoking and drinking to excess. When we outlaw child pornography, the prices paid for child performers rise, increasing the incentives for parents to use children against their will.

So, she's against outlawing child porn. Hmm, one other reason for me to be against her. What, you think the free market should take care of it? There are SOME duties that government MUST perform.
05-20-2008 08:23 PM
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Post: #17
RE: The top of McCain's VP list
Fo Shizzle Wrote:
GGniner Wrote:[quote=Ninerfan1]
It doesn't matter who he picks. He's facing a 40 state defeat in November unless Obama makes a huge misstep.

Quote: a significant 3rd party run by bob barr could cause it to happen though.

Any LP member that would vote for Bob Barr has NO principles and should just join the Rep. party. Bob Barr is trying to Republicanize the LP and if they allow it...I will be through with them...I support Dr. Mary Ruwart, author of the great book "healing our world" for the nod of the LP.

I've probably voted Libertarian more than you have, and I'm not that troubled by Barr. He's as close to being a main-line Libertarian as the right wing will tell you that McCain is to being a main-line republican. And closer than Obama's centrist speeches are to Obama's left of left voting record.

I really think it would be pretty cool for enough people to vote Libertarian to impact the results of the election. That's how third party views have historically gained significance in our "first past the post" electoral system. Nobody pays them any attention until they actually afffect the outcome of an election. But once they actually do affect the outcome of an election, they have been known to grow.

Sometimes they don't. I hoped Perot's movement would gain some legs, but it never had much of a grass roots organization in place and was too dependent on the personality at the top. Libertarians are (more or less, as much as true Libertarians can be) organized in most states, and could capitalize on a strong showing.

Heretofore, Libertarians have gotten their 1% or 2% of the vote and been disregarded. What if the Libertarians nominate Barr and he gets 10% and that is enough to actually affect the outcome in a couple of states? What if Barr actually carries a state (not THAT outrageous, suppose he got Mike Gravel as a running mate, in a state with as much of an individualist outlook as Alaska, and with Gravel's base there, it could be doable)? What if things then break so that the other 49 states split 268-267 in electoral votes, so that little bitty Alaska holds the key to victory? Would Barr negotiate to give Alaska's votes to put somebody over the top? That's actually the outcome I hope for this year. Very unlikely, but we're all hoping for some outcome, and that's the one I'm hoping for. Anything that tweaks the two branches of the demopublican party is a good thing, as far as I'm concerned.

So is it worth selling out on principle to get enough votes to make a splash? Happens in politics every day. If selling out to Barr is the price of gaining relevance, that's a trade that this Libertarian makes every day.

I'm not sure how happy I'd be to see Barr actually WIN the election. But at this point, I don't think that's a problem.

I'm also not certain that Barr hurts McCain as much as some believe. His website indicates polling data that show him pulling 6% right now with no publicity, including 7% with republicans, 5% with democrats, and 5% with independents. If whatever appeal he has remains that balanced, I don't see how he could cause McCain to lose a state where he has a 10% (or even 5%) margin otherwise. And he'd have to lose a bunch of those states to take a 40-state beating. I believe there are a lot of people who are so disillusioned with Bush that they're not going to vote for any republican, and unable to bring themselves to vote for anyone as far left as Obama (or Hillary), to whom Barr will have significant appeal. Those people won't be votes taken away from McCain.
(This post was last modified: 05-20-2008 09:24 PM by Owl 69/70/75.)
05-20-2008 08:57 PM
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jh Offline
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RE: The top of McCain's VP list
RebelKev Wrote:
jh Wrote:Children who willingly participate in sexual acts have the right to make that decision as well, even if it's distasteful to us personally. Some children will make poor choices just as some adults do in smoking and drinking to excess. When we outlaw child pornography, the prices paid for child performers rise, increasing the incentives for parents to use children against their will.

So, she's against outlawing child porn. Hmm, one other reason for me to be against her. What, you think the free market should take care of it? There are SOME duties that government MUST perform.

I didn't say if I agreed with her or not. I was merely pointing out that she is not in favor of child porn, as GGniner falsely accused her of being. Her argument, which I'm sure could be better explained in more than a paragraph, is about how to best reduce the amount.

She also clearly states that she is opposed to children being used for porn against their will. This came out much clearer in a second site which appeared to show her full response, but there were problems in the quotation so I didn't link it. I strongly suspect that this would preclude any form of kiddie porn, as the child wouldn't be old enough to be able to consent. There is a difference between kiddie porn and say, a 17 year old flashing the Girls Gone Wild cameras.

Personally, I have no problem with kiddie porn laws. I'm not sure I agree with the age of consent (and no, this doesn't matter for me personally because even 18 is way too young for me), but that is more of a general issue. I don't entirely understand why you can't drink until 21 but can vote & join the military at 18, why you can't get a tatoo until 18 but can get an abortion at any age, and so on and so forth.
05-20-2008 09:18 PM
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RE: The top of McCain's VP list
Owl 69/70/75 Wrote:So is it worth selling out on principle to get enough votes to make a splash? Happens in politics every day. If selling out to Barr is the price of gaining relevance, that's a trade that this Libertarian makes every day.

I'm not sure how happy I'd be to see Barr actually WIN the election. But at this point, I don't think that's a problem.

While I understand & respect your position, I think I have to side with FoShizzle on this one. If the Party of Principle compromises its principles, even to gain actual relevance on the national stage, how is it different than the other parties? I'm afraid that if Barr did well the next candidate would be a Barr clone (because it worked so well last time) and the Libertarian party would cease to be.

Unfortunately, I understand that this means that the Libertarians will continue to be political outsiders for the forseable future. I'm just not willing to make that trade.
05-20-2008 09:29 PM
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RE: The top of McCain's VP list
GGniner Wrote:
Fo Shizzle Wrote:.I support Dr. Mary Ruwart, author of the great book "healing our world" for the nod of the LP.

she's also in favor of Child Porn

I knew someone would try to trash her with this...I should have figured it would be our resident LP basher.
You should be ashamed...Her position is one of princple and if you cant understand it...well I feel sorry for your narrow view.
05-20-2008 09:34 PM
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