BE Coaches Lobbying for Bids

by Kevin McNamara

Tim Welsh had nearly finished his postgame remarks Thursday night when he was asked what he thought about Notre Dame and its postseason chances.

Welsh’s Providence College basketball team had just suffered its most frustrating loss of the season, maybe in several seasons. But he went out of his way to praise the Irish and began to carry the Big East torch heading into the most important part of the regular season.

“That’s a great team, Notre Dame,” said Welsh. “That’s the problem sometimes in our league. These good teams get lost in the shuffle. I’m watching Kansas State the other night and they’re ranked. Well, didn’t Notre Dame beat their butt in the (Madison Square) Garden? If they’re ranked, Notre Dame should be ranked. They’re 15-4 and a good basketball team. We have a lot of good teams in our league and we have to start supporting all of them. We have 12 really, really good teams. Probably 13. Teams that can beat anybody any night. That’s a hell of a league.”

Welcome to the start of college basketball’s political season. It’s when coaches of teams with great records and poor records all start to sound the same. “Our league is big-time.” “We deserve more respect.” “Look at our teams closely.”

The blather makes for great sound bites and will dominate talk shows and message boards until Selection Sunday in March. Does the ACC gain only four bids if it’s ranked number one in the RPI? Can the Big East get eight or nine teams in? Is the Atlantic 10 for real? Who are the underdog mid-majors to watch?

These themes are what make college basketball great. The same talk swirls around college football, with the chatter over the Bowl Championship Series, but with one giant exception. The BCS is a made-for-TV cartel featuring teams picked by computers. Its national champion is almost always disputed. The teams in the NCAA’s basketball tournament are picked by humans. The games are resolved on the floor in America’s greatest, month-long sporting event.

Which teams earn invites to the tournament is certainly controversial. The NCAA Tournament has become so big, so important, that anything less than inclusion is seen as a failure in programs across the country. This is a huge year for the Big East in that regard. In its first season as a 16-team mega-conference, the Big East hit the jackpot with eight bids. A ninth team (Cincinnati) should have gotten in, but didn’t. Last year, disaster hit. The NCAA somehow decided that a Big East team (Syracuse) with more than 20 wins and a 10-6 conference record didn’t belong. That raised all sorts of red flags at all 16 schools. If the Big East can’t get more than 37 percent of its teams into the Big Dance, why have a conference?

As many as 11 Big East teams can still hope for an at-large berth right now. The number is likely to fall between six and eight, however. Right now, virtually all of the league’s teams can win on a given night. That’s great for TV and the fans, but the coaches hate it. “When Cincinnati and DePaul beat one of our better teams, it doesn’t help anybody,” said one head coach (not PC’s Welsh). “We’re just going to beat each other up for the next six weeks. Who does that help?”

A young Cincinnati team got off to a horrid start, and at 10-12 can’t be in the NCAAs as an at-large pick. But Mick Cronin’s group is very dangerous now. They’ve already beaten Louisville, Pittsburgh, Syracuse and West Virginia. All four of those teams hold NCAA hopes. Cronin knows you can be pretty good in the Big East and still lose seven or eight games. He also knows people around the country don’t seem to appreciate that at all.

“When the guys sit up there on [ESPN’s] College Game Night and talk about these mid-major teams being just as good as a Syracuse or a West Virginia last year, I don’t believe it,” Cronin told the Charleston (S.C.) Gazette. "Maybe in a one-game shot. But if you put them in this league and make them play 18 games, they wouldn’t even be on the bubble, some of those teams.”

I agree. Take Kansas State: the Wildcats have the best player in the country in frosh forward Michael Beasley but still lost to ND by 11, George Mason by 10 and Xavier by 26. Then the Wildcats started the Big 12 season at 5-0, including a home upset of unbeaten Kansas. Now they’re a good team? Well, maybe the Big 12 is a weak league.

The Big East’s coaches have been urged by the conference office to politic a little more than usual. It’s going to be a long and loud six weeks until Selection Sunday.


Let the games begin.

Cheers,
Neil

3601 Wrote:

Believe me, it's my sentiments exactly.

But considering how much the ACC has honed this particular art down to a science, I'm just glad the Big East office has decided it's time to engage rather than stay above the fray.

Hopefully this new found attitude will spill over into Coaches votes in both the football and basketball polls - particularly the football one.

Cheers,
Neil

Didnt someone say before that it would be the basketball situation not football that would bring the split? I think if the BE doesnt get 8 teams in this year there will be more upset coaches and fans wondering the practicality of the 16 team league.

Cubanbull Wrote:Didnt someone say before that it would be the basketball situation not football that would bring the split? I think if the BE doesnt get 8 teams in this year there will be more upset coaches and fans wondering the practicality of the 16 team league.

Let me again state my preference before proceeding. I prefer a smaller version of the current hybrid for reasons some on this board are aware.

But if that smaller version of the hybrid cannot be achieved (including what I consider its ultimate purpose could lead to), then I prefer a split with adding Memphis and ECU.

Now, back to the point as to why I am making this post - the bolded part of the above post.

I think fans on this board, for the most part, will not be satisfied until there is a split. Fine, I have no problem with that. And since they feel that way, they will use any excuse to justify this point of view. Again, fine, I have no problem with that as well. We are all human.

But as I have outlined in another thread, it is extremely rare for any BCS conference to receive more than 50% of their number in terms of bids. The main two exceptions over the years has been the odd numbered leagues - the Big Ten and the ACC (when it had 9 members).

It is more likely that a conference will receive less than 50% of its number. It happens virtually every year, and more oftent than not, to two conferences rather than just one.

Therefore, even with a split, the potential for being snubbed for bids is still likely to happen in terms of probability.

In terms of perception, the difference is that unless Memphis is one of the additions (and let's be honest, they are the longest of the long shots of the C-USA East candidates), a 10-team league with USF, UCF, ECU, and Rutgers isn't likely to have a lot of 5 and 6 bid years, especially the first half decade after it is formed.

There are legitimate reasons for a split to occur, but this isn't one of them in my book.

Cheers,
Neil

Why should the Big East max be 8 teams or 50% when conference like the Big 10 have gotten over that. There are at least 10 teams in this league that have a legit shot at the tourny and have the RPI. The articles makes a great point about Big East teams getting lost especially about Notre Dame not being ranked that team is legit. I also feel for Providence they are one of my favorite Big East programs and I hope they & Syracuse make the tourny.

PusherT Wrote:Why should the Big East max be 8 teams or 50% when conference like the Big 10 have gotten over that.

They aren't. It's just that so far this year, you'd be hard pressed to say the league deserves more than 8 at this moment in time.

Quote:There are at least 10 teams in this league that have a legit shot at the tourney and have the RPI.

True, although it is actually 9, not 10. Providence and Nova are sinking fast with RPIs of 67 and 74 respectively and are probably not even Last Four Out at the moment.

On the other hand, using an RPI of 50 or less as being having a "legit shot" -

The Big 12 has 6 members with RPIs of 30 or less and Texas Tech at 56.

The Pac 10 has 5 members with RPIs of 50 or less and Oregon at 55.

The Big Ten has 5 members with RPIs of 50 or less.

The SEC has 5 members with RPIs of 50 or less with Mississippi State at 59.

The ACC has 5 members with RPIs of 50 or less.

That's 26 bids there amongst those conferences with 3 possibilities knocking on the door.

As already posted in a different thread, the Big 6 conferences are likely to share anywhere between 33-37 bids this year. If it is the low end (worse case scenario), that only leaves 7 bids for the Big East. If it's anything above 33, I like the league's chances of getting 8. I just don't see it getting 9 this year when it is only the third best conference (based upon regular season play so far) behind the Pac-10 and the Big 12.

Cheers,
Neil

I think if there is a split. FB schools would stay with other BCS conf on the amount of teams that get in tourn. Catholic schools would start to fall back to mid-major status & there would be more spots open for Tourn. It may take 5 yrs, but they fall to A-10 status, A-10 would fall to 1 bid conf especially if Xavier, StLouis, Dayton & Umass join them.

All I was saying is that this year has a good shot at eight teams in the NCAA if that doesnt happen youll see some upset coaches. I do think that the size of the Big East does hurt their chances at getting extra bids. I could see a nine team league that lets say include Memphis getting, 4-5 teams yearly as a higher chance than our current membership getting 7-8.
I know the committee says that they dont cap the number of teams from a league but the reality is that is common sense that other leagues would not look kindly at ONE league having 8-9 tournament teams.

Cubanbull Wrote:Didnt someone say before that it would be the basketball situation not football that would bring the split?

Yes, I mentioned this in a thread a little while back, it's just my opinion.

Pitino has said many times (and did again on his coach's show recently) that the Big East is not a conference, it's a corporation.

I will say it again, the ncaa bids will be the deciding factor. You must also consider your OOC rank also before conference play begins too. Many of those teams didnt have the greatest OOC rank either. I think based on the play the A-10 will get 4 or 5 bids this year. The reason for my thinking that it will come down to basketball bids is so many of your schools are better known for basketball; not saying that your are a bad football teams. You have to many coaches will not tolerate being snubbed. I believe that certain coaches will be more active about a split if this happens. Sports makes to much money for them not to listen to the coaches opinion. Then coup that with the fb coaches who want to split because of the scheduling problem. Voila! just my 2 cents.

Lunardi updated Bracketology today. He has 8 Big East teams in the field. Here are the current seeds.

2- Georgetown
4- UConn
5- Marquette
6- Louisville, Notre Dame
7- Pitt
9- Syracuse
12- WVU

WVU was the 3rd to last team in. Seton Hall was the 5th team out.

Here is the conference breakdown by the way:
Big East (8)
Big 12 (6)
SEC (6)
Big Ten (5)
Pac-10 (5)
Atlantic 10 (4)
ACC (3)
Colonial (2)
MAC (2)
Mountain West (2)
West Coast (2)

Does anyone really believe the committee won't give the ACC bids they don't deserve though? If picking today, the first 7 are safely in. I'd be worried the committee looks at the conferences though (despite what they say) and concludes the ACC #4 must get in over BE #8, despite VT's poor profile. VT is actually 3rd in the ACC, despite an RPI below 9 BE teams and 3 sub-100 losses.

http://sports.espn.go.com/ncb/bracketology

CollegeCard Wrote:Lunardi updated Bracketology today. He has 8 Big East teams in the field. Here are the current seeds.

2- Georgetown
4- UConn
5- Marquette
6- Louisville, Notre Dame
7- Pitt
9- Syracuse
12- WVU

WVU was the 3rd to last team in. Seton Hall was the 5th team out.

Here is the conference breakdown by the way:
Big East (8)
Big 12 (6)
SEC (6)
Big Ten (5)
Pac-10 (5)
Atlantic 10 (4)
ACC (3)
Colonial (2)
MAC (2)
Mountain West (2)
West Coast (2)

Does anyone really believe the committee won't give the ACC bids they don't deserve though? If picking today, the first 7 are safely in. I'd be worried the committee looks at the conferences though (despite what they say) and concludes the ACC #4 must get in over BE #8, despite VT's poor profile. VT is actually 3rd in the ACC, despite an RPI below 9 BE teams and 3 sub-100 losses.

http://sports.espn.go.com/ncb/bracketology

Agreed. But this year, there is no representation of the ACC on the committee, just like the last two years had no representation of the Big East. So it could be interesting. Still I think Maryland will eventually rise ahead of VT in the ACC to be their #4. The real question is will NC State also rise to be their #5.

Also, the Colonial, the Horizon, and Mountain West have representation this year. I personally don't think either VCU or George Mason have done enough to warrant an at-large bid, but they could be a 2 bid league just because of that factor.

Obviously Butler deserves an at-large if they miss out on being the auto qualifier from the Horizon. But the interesting factor could be what happens if San Diego State wins the Mountain. Will UNLV and BYU both get in as at-larges?

So many variables at this point in time. Which is why I am not expecting more than 7 from the Big East at this time. And the last one could come down between West Virginia and Syracuse and since they took the head to head, I am obviously concerned.

Cheers,
Neil