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Forde: Big East has depth, the element of surprise this season
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Forde: Big East has depth, the element of surprise this season
http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/columns/s...ortCat=ncb
Quote:Big East has depth, the element of surprise this season
By Pat Forde
ESPN.com

Forty names, games, teams and minutiae making news in college basketball (tickets for Monday's game between 0-21 New Jersey Institute of Technology (1) and 4-20 Longwood (2) sold separately -- and cheaply):

Wild, Wild East

When the Big East (3) supersized itself three years ago, it promoted itself as the best basketball league in the land. That's hard to back up with one Final Four team and no national titles in two full seasons. But here in Year 3, the conference can stake indisputable claim to the least predictable league in the land.

There were eight games involving Big East teams over the weekend. Underdogs won half of them and covered the spread in three of the others. Syracuse's seven-point victory over Providence -- secured by a 15-8 closing burst -- was the only time a favorite lived up to Las Vegas' pregame expectations.

Weekends like that are why the Big East in basketball is starting to resemble the SEC in football: There are no soft spots on the 18-game schedule. Anything can happen on a given night, and it already has.

"It's the toughest league in the history of college basketball," said Cincinnati coach Mick Cronin (4), whose Bearcats are competitive a year ahead of schedule. "You may say the Pac-10 is a better league. Well, our league is definitely deeper. It's a death struggle every game."

Said Marquette's Tom Crean (5): "When there are no weak links in the league, you can't have any weak links on your team. When certain conferences have two, three, four teams getting a lot of attention, they're probably good and deserving of it. But it also means the teams at the bottom of the league probably aren't very good. We don't have that."

Rutgers looked like a potential patsy after an 0-6 league start. So what have the Scarlet Knights done since then? Beaten two ranked teams (Villanova and Pittsburgh) by double digits. Rutgers outscored Nova 16-2 to start the game and outscored Pitt 39-17 to finish the game -- the latter on the road.

Even the team that has established itself alone in first place is hardly bulletproof. Georgetown is 6-1 in Big East play, but half of those wins are by a total of six points and required an extraordinary escape. Against Connecticut, the Hoyas needed a 3-pointer by 7-foot-2 Roy Hibbert with six seconds left to win by three. Against Syracuse, a Jonny Flynn 3 just lipped out at the buzzer of overtime. And Saturday against West Virginia, the Hoyas needed a Patrick Ewing Jr. shot block at the rim at the buzzer to win by one.

"They're winning, and that experience of winning close games has got to help them," Crean said. "But the games have been so close, it's going to give everyone else confidence they can beat them."

Between the top and bottom, there are 11 teams with either three or four league losses.

"It's going to be a jumbled mess at the end in the middle," Cronin said. "But there are a lot of teams good enough to go in [the NCAA Tournament] -- maybe 12. The question is whether we'll ever get nine or 10 in."

That day may be March 16, 2008 ... Selection Sunday. In Joe Lunardi's latest Bracketology, eight Big East teams are in and two are among the first four out.

So how will the Selection Committee decide who is the best of those huddled masses yearning to dance? Good question -- especially without a full home-and-home schedule. The Minutes eyeballs what the top 13 teams in league play have accomplished thus far:

Georgetown (6)
Record: 16-2, 6-1 Big East
RPI: 9
Average RPI of league opponents to date: 41
Loved 'em when: The Hoyas drilled Notre Dame by 19 points on Jan. 19.
Doubted 'em when: They had to pull out two home games by a total of five points.
Bottom line: Size, shot selection and ability to control pace makes the Hoyas the team to beat.

Notre Dame (7)
Record: 14-4, 4-2 Big East
RPI: 41
Average RPI of league opponents to date: 43
Loved 'em when: The Irish finally won a road game, at Villanova on Saturday.
Doubted 'em when: They were housed at Marquette by 26 on Jan. 12.
Bottom line: The Fighting Irish have played a tough schedule to get this far, and it eases up a bit from here on out. If they can sharpen up defensively and get tougher on the road, they'll be in the hunt the whole way.

Louisville (8)
Record: 15-6, 5-3 Big East
RPI: 36
Average RPI of league opponents to date: 84
Loved 'em when: The Cardinals got healthy in January and blew out West Virginia and Marquette.
Doubted 'em when: They opened Big East play with a loss at home to Cincinnati.
Bottom line: The Cardinals were expected to contend for the league title, and with three league losses by a total of 13 points, they've had chances to win every league game. The question is whether they have the basketball IQ to execute in close-game situations.

Connecticut (9)
Record: 15-5, 5-3 Big East
RPI: 23
Average RPI of league opponents to date: 59
Loved 'em when: Right now, riding a four-game winning streak that includes three victories over RPI top 40 opposition.
Doubted 'em when: The Huskies lost at home to Providence.
Bottom line: UConn is starting to flex its muscles now, winning two big games in three days without leading scorer Jerome Dyson. The Huskies are emerging as Georgetown's biggest threat.

Pittsburgh (10)
Record: 16-4, 4-3 Big East
RPI: 18
Average RPI of league opponents to date: 95
Loved 'em when: The Panthers handed Georgetown its only league loss.
Doubted 'em when: They were smoked at home by Rutgers.
Bottom line: The Panthers circled the wagons and responded immediately after a rash of injuries hit -- but now it seems to be catching up with them. With eight top 50 RPI opponents left, it will be difficult for an undermanned team to stay in the race.

Marquette (11)
Record: 14-4, 4-3 Big East
RPI: 20
Average RPI of league opponents to date: 50
Loved 'em when: The Golden Eagles have played at home (4-0 in league play).
Doubted 'em when: They've played on the road (0-3 in league play, with all the losses by double digits).
Bottom line: The Golden Eagles need to summon some inside strength and production to contend in a league that's never weak in the paint.

West Virginia (12)
Record: 15-5, 4-3 Big East
RPI: 32
Average RPI of league opponents to date: 60
Loved 'em when: The Mountaineers have scored in the 60s (4-0 in league games).
Doubted 'em when: They've scored in the 50s (0-3).
Bottom line: This is a mature team that values the ball and has improved its defense under Bob Huggins. With only three RPI top 50 opponents left, the hardest part of the league schedule is behind the Mountaineers now. They could be the Big East's biggest surprise when all is said and done.

Seton Hall (13)
Record: 14-6, 4-3 Big East
RPI: 51
Average RPI of league opponents to date: 54
Loved 'em when: Right now, riding a current four-game winning streak.
Doubted 'em when: The Pirates opened league play 0-3.
Bottom line: The Hall is hot right now and has a chance to keep rolling at Rutgers on Wednesday. If the Pirates defend their new home court and snare a couple of road wins, they'll finish in the upper division. And nobody saw that coming.

DePaul (14)
Record: 9-10, 4-3 Big East
RPI: 118
Average RPI of league opponents to date: 73
Loved 'em when: The Blue Demons rebounded from a 2-7 overall start by winning three of their first four Big East games.
Doubted 'em when: They head into a remaining schedule that includes only one game in which the Blue Demons should definitely be favored (home against South Florida on Feb. 9).
Bottom line: If freshmen Mac Koshwal and Dar Tucker (combining to average 24.8 points and 13.4 rebounds) avoid hitting the rookie wall, DePaul will continue to be tough to beat. But the Demons won't win many easily, either.

Syracuse (15)
Record: 14-7, 4-4 Big East
RPI: 40
Average RPI of league opponents to date: 84
Loved 'em when: The Orange took Georgetown to the wire on the road.
Doubted 'em when: They lost by 20 to West Virginia.
Bottom line: The young Orange don't own enough quality victories to impress the committee. They'll get plenty of chances to change that in a rugged final month.

Cincinnati (16)
Record: 9-11, 4-4 Big East
RPI: 112
Average RPI of league opponents to date: 53
Loved 'em when: The Bearcats played close games (4-2 in Big East games decided by single digits).
Doubted 'em when: They were 5-7 heading into conference play.
Bottom line: Athletic and tenacious, the Bearcats should be in almost every game the rest of the way, but they might not have the offensive firepower to win half of them.

Providence (17)
Record: 12-7, 3-4 Big East
RPI: 50
Average RPI of league opponents to date: 77
Loved 'em when: The Friars shocked Connecticut on the road by a dozen.
Doubted 'em when: They lost at home to Seton Hall by a baker's dozen.
Bottom line: The Friars are scrappy but don't look solid enough defensively to be around for the long haul.

Villanova (18)
Record: 13-5, 3-4 Big East
RPI: 61
Average RPI of league opponents to date: 87
Loved 'em when: The Wildcats won by 10 at Syracuse.
Doubted 'em when: They followed that Syracuse win with consecutive blowout losses to Notre Dame and Rutgers.
Bottom line: A penchant for slow starts has caught up with Nova. This looks like an NIT team.
01-30-2008 02:14 PM
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Post: #2
RE: Forde: Big East has depth, the element of surprise this season
Weekends like that are why the Big East in basketball is starting to resemble the SEC in football

That is so accurate, this league really is a BEast.
02-02-2008 03:47 AM
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Post: #3
RE: Forde: Big East has depth, the element of surprise this season
I don't know how totally accurate that article is on UC. For one, Cincinnati actually has an RPI of 84 now. And, while not having the most potent offense, Cincinnati has a very solid offense.
(This post was last modified: 02-02-2008 10:03 AM by CatsClaw.)
02-02-2008 10:02 AM
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