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So...what deserving Big East team will be snubbed in March?
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omniorange Offline
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Post: #21
RE: So...what deserving Big East team will be snubbed in March?
Jose_Jalapeno_on_a_Stick Wrote:
Gray Avenger Wrote:Perhaps it is the price paid for being an oversized, hodge-podge conglomeration having 8 parasitic, non-football members.

It doesn't help, especially with 18 games on everyone's schedule.

If the league splits and expands by 2, as many here are supposing, there would still be an 18 game conference schedule. 03-wink

Cheers,
Neil
01-30-2008 01:45 PM
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omniorange Offline
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Post: #22
RE: So...what deserving Big East team will be snubbed in March?
Gray Avenger Wrote:A friend of mine recently put it this way:

"the ncaa isnt going to give almost a quarter of the at large bids to the tournament to one conference. they just arent. so if there are 10 "worthy" big east teams, you can bank that at least 3 are going to get left out. and if those happen to be division III schools, you better bet they are going to be willing to talk about a split.

a 16 team big east conferece will get 7 bids max.
a 12 team big east conference can get 5-6 every year
a 12 team conference made up of the BE DIII schools would get 4-5 every year

thats 9-11 schools every year instead of 7.
"

All supposition at this point in time. A 12-team Big East with Memphis, ECU, UCF, and Temple isn't guaranteed 5-6 bids every year anymore than the current Big 12 (which has received only 4 bids the last two years) is or the ACC who will likely only be getting 4 bids for the second time in the past three years.

Now, if the league only expands to 10 (with two all-sports candidates or a partial hybrid of 9 with Notre Dame), I think the chances are better of it getting 5-6 bids each year, if Memphis is one of the candidates in the first and IS the candidate in the second.

The SOS alone with having Louisville, Syracuse, UConn, Cincinnati, Memphis, West Virginia, and Pitt playing each other round-robin would be phenomenal. But then, they could also simply beat each other up and wound up with a lot of 10-8 and 9-7 records as well.

Cheers,
Neil
01-30-2008 01:55 PM
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PirateMarv Offline
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Post: #23
RE: So...what deserving Big East team will be snubbed in March?
omnicarrier Wrote:
MichaelSavage Wrote:It's practically a rite of spring: A Big East team or two who deserve to go to the Dance will be left out. Last year, it was Syracuse and West Virginia. Who do you think it will be this year?

It's only January. The dog days of February conference games have still to be played, but as of this moment, I really don't see any likely Big East snubs.

I think when everything shakes out the league will get 7 bids -

Georgetown, UConn, Pitt, Marquette, West Virginia, Louisville, and Notre Dame.

The league might manage to scratch out an additional bid from amongst Providence, Seton Hall, Syracuse and Villanova but the best hope there - Syracuse - is also hurt by the fact that they are now down to 6 players and a walk-on point guard.

And that is just too few to be successful in a league as tough as this one.

Cheers,
Neil

Seven (7). I see a minimum of four (4); maybe an outside shot at six (6). To get to that 6th or 7th invitation, one of those teams that you mentioned will need to win the tournament to get in.
01-30-2008 01:59 PM
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PirateMarv Offline
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Post: #24
RE: So...what deserving Big East team will be snubbed in March?
PirateMarv Wrote:
omnicarrier Wrote:
MichaelSavage Wrote:It's practically a rite of spring: A Big East team or two who deserve to go to the Dance will be left out. Last year, it was Syracuse and West Virginia. Who do you think it will be this year?

It's only January. The dog days of February conference games have still to be played, but as of this moment, I really don't see any likely Big East snubs.

I think when everything shakes out the league will get 7 bids -

Georgetown, UConn, Pitt, Marquette, West Virginia, Louisville, and Notre Dame.

The league might manage to scratch out an additional bid from amongst Providence, Seton Hall, Syracuse and Villanova but the best hope there - Syracuse - is also hurt by the fact that they are now down to 6 players and a walk-on point guard.

And that is just too few to be successful in a league as tough as this one.

Cheers,
Neil

Seven (7). I see a minimum of four (4); maybe an outside shot at six (6). To get to that 6th or 7th invitation, one of those teams that you mentioned will need to win the tournament to get in.

The BE tournament that is.
01-30-2008 02:01 PM
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Ring of Black Offline
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Post: #25
RE: So...what deserving Big East team will be snubbed in March?
omnicarrier Wrote:
Gray Avenger Wrote:A friend of mine recently put it this way:

"the ncaa isnt going to give almost a quarter of the at large bids to the tournament to one conference. they just arent. so if there are 10 "worthy" big east teams, you can bank that at least 3 are going to get left out. and if those happen to be division III schools, you better bet they are going to be willing to talk about a split.

a 16 team big east conferece will get 7 bids max.
a 12 team big east conference can get 5-6 every year
a 12 team conference made up of the BE DIII schools would get 4-5 every year

thats 9-11 schools every year instead of 7.
"

All supposition at this point in time.

His first bullet isn’t. It’s been proven out per the first two years that seven will likely be a typical number.
01-30-2008 02:02 PM
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CollegeCard Offline
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Post: #26
RE: So...what deserving Big East team will be snubbed in March?
Gray Avenger Wrote:A friend of mine recently put it this way:

"the ncaa isnt going to give almost a quarter of the at large bids to the tournament to one conference. they just arent. so if there are 10 "worthy" big east teams, you can bank that at least 3 are going to get left out. and if those happen to be division III schools, you better bet they are going to be willing to talk about a split.

a 16 team big east conferece will get 7 bids max.
"

"Almost a quarter" of the bids is 8, since a quarter would be 8.5. If the league has 8 teams that differentiate themselves and the other leagues are less deserving, we can get 8 bids. 9 or 10, that's unlikely.
01-30-2008 02:05 PM
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cuseroc Offline
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Post: #27
RE: So...what deserving Big East team will be snubbed in March?
Gray Avenger Wrote:A friend of mine recently put it this way:

"the ncaa isnt going to give almost a quarter of the at large bids to the tournament to one conference. they just arent. so if there are 10 "worthy" big east teams, you can bank that at least 3 are going to get left out. and if those happen to be division III schools, you better bet they are going to be willing to talk about a split.

[b]a 16 team big east conferece will get 7 bids max.
01-wingedeagle
a 12 team big east conference can get 5-6 every year
a 12 team conference made up of the BE DIII schools would get 4-5 every year

thats 9-11 schools every year instead of 7.[/b]"

Perhaps you forgot about the 2005 season when the 16 team league BE got 8 bids.
Either you, or your friend or both of you have no idea what you are talking about.
01-30-2008 02:09 PM
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omniorange Offline
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Post: #28
RE: So...what deserving Big East team will be snubbed in March?
PirateMarv Wrote:
omnicarrier Wrote:
MichaelSavage Wrote:It's practically a rite of spring: A Big East team or two who deserve to go to the Dance will be left out. Last year, it was Syracuse and West Virginia. Who do you think it will be this year?

It's only January. The dog days of February conference games have still to be played, but as of this moment, I really don't see any likely Big East snubs.

I think when everything shakes out the league will get 7 bids -

Georgetown, UConn, Pitt, Marquette, West Virginia, Louisville, and Notre Dame.

The league might manage to scratch out an additional bid from amongst Providence, Seton Hall, Syracuse and Villanova but the best hope there - Syracuse - is also hurt by the fact that they are now down to 6 players and a walk-on point guard.

And that is just too few to be successful in a league as tough as this one.

Cheers,
Neil

Seven (7). I see a minimum of four (4); maybe an outside shot at six (6). To get to that 6th or 7th invitation, one of those teams that you mentioned will need to win the tournament to get in.

And you say this because?....

As I am sure you know, there are 65 bids total, not counting the 6 BCS conferences, there are 25 other conferences.

Of those 25 other conferences, 19 of them are one-bid conferences, no matter who wins any conference championship that may be played.

Another 3 of those 25 are one-bid conferences as long as the only tourney worthy team in them also win the conference championship - these are C-USA (Memphis); Missouri Valley (Drake); and Horizon (Butler).

That leaves 3 mid-majors with assured multiple bids -

A-10 (3 or 4)
Mountain West (2)
West Coast (2).

Assuming 2 of C-USA, Missouri Valley, and Horizon have upset champions and assuming the A-10 gets 4 instead of three that accounts for 32 of the 65 total bids.

Meaning at worse the super-conferences split 33 bids and at best they split 37.

The Pac-10 basically has 6 bids sewn up (unless there is a complete and total collapse by one of those six) and the Big Ten will get no more than 5. So that leaves in the worse case scenario 22 bids to be divvied up between the ACC, Big 12, Big East, and SEC and 26 in the best case scenario.

Now go and look at RealTime RPI and examine the teams in each of those 4 conferences and tell me again the Big East will be hard pressed to get 6 teams in the tourney.

Cheers,
Neil
01-30-2008 02:19 PM
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omniorange Offline
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Post: #29
RE: So...what deserving Big East team will be snubbed in March?
Jose_Jalapeno_on_a_Stick Wrote:
omnicarrier Wrote:
Gray Avenger Wrote:A friend of mine recently put it this way:

"the ncaa isnt going to give almost a quarter of the at large bids to the tournament to one conference. they just arent. so if there are 10 "worthy" big east teams, you can bank that at least 3 are going to get left out. and if those happen to be division III schools, you better bet they are going to be willing to talk about a split.

a 16 team big east conferece will get 7 bids max.
a 12 team big east conference can get 5-6 every year
a 12 team conference made up of the BE DIII schools would get 4-5 every year

thats 9-11 schools every year instead of 7.
"

All supposition at this point in time.

His first bullet isn’t. It’s been proven out per the first two years that seven will likely be a typical number.

No, it hasn't. All that has been proven is that the Big East in those two years probably only warranted an average of 7 bids.

The first year in which we got 8, the one that got left out (Cincy) wasn't clearly superior to other candidates who got left out (though they, and others who were left out, were clearly superior to Air Force who got in).

And last year we were 7th in overall RPI and 5th in OOC RPI, we would be hard pressed to say we deserved more than 6 bids last year - although certainly a case could be made for both Syracuse and West Virginia - as a case can be made for Stanford who got in and Missouri State and Bradley who were left out.

Reasonable minds can disagree when it comes to the last four in and the last four out. It's not a slam dunk. People who think it is, or should be, need to really look at the situation with a more critical eye.

And considering the fact that in neither of those years was a Big East representative on the selection committee that, in and of itself, may have been what tipped the scales against the league. But that doesn't necessarily mean that had the league been represented and that resulted in putting Cincy in two years ago and Syracuse and/or West Virginia in last year would have been just or fair either.

This year there will be representation. It will be interesting to see if this helps the league get to 8 instead of 7 or 7 instead of 6.

Nothing has been proven on this issue either way yet. All we have now are gut feelings and hurt feelings as Bearcats' and Orange/Eers' fans for being left out.

Perhaps we should save our pity for Missouri State which has been left out the last two years with RPIs of 21 and 36 and 20 wins in each season?

Cheers,
Neil
(This post was last modified: 01-30-2008 02:44 PM by omniorange.)
01-30-2008 02:41 PM
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PirateMarv Offline
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Post: #30
RE: So...what deserving Big East team will be snubbed in March?
omnicarrier Wrote:
PirateMarv Wrote:
omnicarrier Wrote:
MichaelSavage Wrote:It's practically a rite of spring: A Big East team or two who deserve to go to the Dance will be left out. Last year, it was Syracuse and West Virginia. Who do you think it will be this year?

It's only January. The dog days of February conference games have still to be played, but as of this moment, I really don't see any likely Big East snubs.

I think when everything shakes out the league will get 7 bids -

Georgetown, UConn, Pitt, Marquette, West Virginia, Louisville, and Notre Dame.

The league might manage to scratch out an additional bid from amongst Providence, Seton Hall, Syracuse and Villanova but the best hope there - Syracuse - is also hurt by the fact that they are now down to 6 players and a walk-on point guard.

And that is just too few to be successful in a league as tough as this one.

Cheers,
Neil

Seven (7). I see a minimum of four (4); maybe an outside shot at six (6). To get to that 6th or 7th invitation, one of those teams that you mentioned will need to win the tournament to get in.

And you say this because?....

As I am sure you know, there are 65 bids total, not counting the 6 BCS conferences, there are 25 other conferences.

Of those 25 other conferences, 19 of them are one-bid conferences, no matter who wins any conference championship that may be played.

Another 3 of those 25 are one-bid conferences as long as the only tourney worthy team in them also win the conference championship - these are C-USA (Memphis); Missouri Valley (Drake); and Horizon (Butler).

That leaves 3 mid-majors with assured multiple bids -

A-10 (3 or 4)
Mountain West (2)
West Coast (2).

Assuming 2 of C-USA, Missouri Valley, and Horizon have upset champions and assuming the A-10 gets 4 instead of three that accounts for 32 of the 65 total bids.

Meaning at worse the super-conferences split 33 bids and at best they split 37.

The Pac-10 basically has 6 bids sewn up (unless there is a complete and total collapse by one of those six) and the Big Ten will get no more than 5. So that leaves in the worse case scenario 22 bids to be divvied up between the ACC, Big 12, Big East, and SEC and 26 in the best case scenario.

Now go and look at RealTime RPI and examine the teams in each of those 4 conferences and tell me again the Big East will be hard pressed to get 6 teams in the tourney.

Cheers,
Neil

Just because your conference has 150 teams (sarcasm intended), that does not mean that you all are entitled to 11% of the overall bids offered by the NCAA. You are literally saying that 44% of your overgrown league is entitled to a tournament berth, despite the fact that your conference is at best the 6th most most productive (or best) conference in the NCAA. So in order to get the number of at-large bids that you are talking about, you would need to pass at least 2 of the conferences in front of you.

I list the following teams and where the number of bids that The Big12 is lock for 6 and I would even say 7. The B10 will get 5 or maybe 6. The PAC 10 will get 6-7. The SEC will get 6-7 and the ACC is looking at 5, but you know that the selection committee will give them an extra 1-2 because of their perceived conference strength. The BE is behind all of those conferences.

In fact your conferences best OCC win was when UConn beat Indiana and while that was impressive, it will not help all that much since Memphis is your de facto conference champion (we can feel your pain over here in CUSA, because they have jumped all over us too). So unless I am wrong, and I missed some of your OOC victories, then Memphis victories probably opened the door for other schools in CUSA, CAA, MAC, MWC and MVC to get extra bids. In fact many of these leagues overall strength of schdules are rated pretty close to your league's SOS.

So I would think that Memphis took 1-2 bids from your conference. Did I miss anything?
01-30-2008 03:05 PM
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Post: #31
RE: So...what deserving Big East team will be snubbed in March?
PirateMarv Wrote:
omnicarrier Wrote:
PirateMarv Wrote:
omnicarrier Wrote:
MichaelSavage Wrote:It's practically a rite of spring: A Big East team or two who deserve to go to the Dance will be left out. Last year, it was Syracuse and West Virginia. Who do you think it will be this year?

It's only January. The dog days of February conference games have still to be played, but as of this moment, I really don't see any likely Big East snubs.

I think when everything shakes out the league will get 7 bids -

Georgetown, UConn, Pitt, Marquette, West Virginia, Louisville, and Notre Dame.

The league might manage to scratch out an additional bid from amongst Providence, Seton Hall, Syracuse and Villanova but the best hope there - Syracuse - is also hurt by the fact that they are now down to 6 players and a walk-on point guard.

And that is just too few to be successful in a league as tough as this one.

Cheers,
Neil

Seven (7). I see a minimum of four (4); maybe an outside shot at six (6). To get to that 6th or 7th invitation, one of those teams that you mentioned will need to win the tournament to get in.

And you say this because?....

As I am sure you know, there are 65 bids total, not counting the 6 BCS conferences, there are 25 other conferences.

Of those 25 other conferences, 19 of them are one-bid conferences, no matter who wins any conference championship that may be played.

Another 3 of those 25 are one-bid conferences as long as the only tourney worthy team in them also win the conference championship - these are C-USA (Memphis); Missouri Valley (Drake); and Horizon (Butler).

That leaves 3 mid-majors with assured multiple bids -

A-10 (3 or 4)
Mountain West (2)
West Coast (2).

Assuming 2 of C-USA, Missouri Valley, and Horizon have upset champions and assuming the A-10 gets 4 instead of three that accounts for 32 of the 65 total bids.

Meaning at worse the super-conferences split 33 bids and at best they split 37.

The Pac-10 basically has 6 bids sewn up (unless there is a complete and total collapse by one of those six) and the Big Ten will get no more than 5. So that leaves in the worse case scenario 22 bids to be divvied up between the ACC, Big 12, Big East, and SEC and 26 in the best case scenario.

Now go and look at RealTime RPI and examine the teams in each of those 4 conferences and tell me again the Big East will be hard pressed to get 6 teams in the tourney.

Cheers,
Neil

Just because your conference has 150 teams (sarcasm intended), that does not mean that you all are entitled to 11% of the overall bids offered by the NCAA. You are literally saying that 44% of your overgrown league is entitled to a tournament berth, despite the fact that your conference is at best the 6th most most productive (or best) conference in the NCAA. So in order to get the number of at-large bids that you are talking about, you would need to pass at least 2 of the conferences in front of you.

I list the following teams and where the number of bids that The Big12 is lock for 6 and I would even say 7. The B10 will get 5 or maybe 6. The PAC 10 will get 6-7. The SEC will get 6-7 and the ACC is looking at 5, but you know that the selection committee will give them an extra 1-2 because of their perceived conference strength. The BE is behind all of those conferences.

In fact your conferences best OCC win was when UConn beat Indiana and while that was impressive, it will not help all that much since Memphis is your de facto conference champion (we can feel your pain over here in CUSA, because they have jumped all over us too). So unless I am wrong, and I missed some of your OOC victories, then Memphis victories probably opened the door for other schools in CUSA, CAA, MAC, MWC and MVC to get extra bids. In fact many of these leagues overall strength of schdules are rated pretty close to your league's SOS.

So I would think that Memphis took 1-2 bids from your conference. Did I miss anything?


Wow...did you just say the Big East is the 6th best in basketball? Seriously?
01-30-2008 03:10 PM
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omniorange Offline
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Post: #32
RE: So...what deserving Big East team will be snubbed in March?
CollegeCard Wrote:
Gray Avenger Wrote:A friend of mine recently put it this way:

"the ncaa isnt going to give almost a quarter of the at large bids to the tournament to one conference. they just arent. so if there are 10 "worthy" big east teams, you can bank that at least 3 are going to get left out. and if those happen to be division III schools, you better bet they are going to be willing to talk about a split a 16 team big east conferece will get 7 bids max."

"Almost a quarter" of the bids is 8, since a quarter would be 8.5. If the league has 8 teams that differentiate themselves and the other leagues are less deserving, we can get 8 bids. 9 or 10, that's unlikely.

I would think using that logic, the max would be 9, not 8. Since "a quarter of the at-large bids" would be 8 plus the automatic qualifier would get the league to 9.

Now how often is the league likely to get to 9 total bids? Not often. But, outside of the Big 10 and the ACC how often over the past decade has...

the Pac 10 gotten 6 bids? (twice);
the SEC or the Big 12 gotten 7 bids? (none);
the Old Big East prior to the new additions gotten 7 bids? (none)

The main exception to the more than half rule appears reserved for the Big Ten and the ACC - because for the most part these two leagues have been perceived to be the best two basketball leagues.

With the Big East beginning to supplant the Big Ten as the other great basketball league and with the ACC being watered down due to football expansion, perhaps this league gets 9 bids (more than half the league's size bid) 4 times over the next decade the same way that the Big Ten has gotten it over the past decade. Who knows? Only time will tell assuming we even stay in this conglomeration for the next 10 years - which I, for one, would prefer not to.

Cheers,
Neil
01-30-2008 03:10 PM
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CollegeCard Offline
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Post: #33
RE: So...what deserving Big East team will be snubbed in March?
PirateMarv Wrote:Just because your conference has 150 teams (sarcasm intended), that does not mean that you all are entitled to 11% of the overall bids offered by the NCAA. You are literally saying that 44% of your overgrown league is entitled to a tournament berth, despite the fact that your conference is at best the 6th most most productive (or best) conference in the NCAA. So in order to get the number of at-large bids that you are talking about, you would need to pass at least 2 of the conferences in front of you.

I list the following teams and where the number of bids that The Big12 is lock for 6 and I would even say 7. The B10 will get 5 or maybe 6. The PAC 10 will get 6-7. The SEC will get 6-7 and the ACC is looking at 5, but you know that the selection committee will give them an extra 1-2 because of their perceived conference strength. The BE is behind all of those conferences.

Memphis victories probably opened the door for other schools in CUSA, CAA, MAC, MWC and MVC to get extra bids. In fact many of these leagues overall strength of schdules are rated pretty close to your league's SOS.

So I would think that Memphis took 1-2 bids from your conference. Did I miss anything?

Wow. How do you respond to this. Your tone is serious, but the content makes me think you are playing a practical joke. A few things that you mentioned that border towards no chance of happening:

-The Big 10 getting 6 bids. 5 is an absolute lock-step MAX. 4 is way more likely than 6.
-The SEC getting 7 bids? In what season? Again, 6 is a dead-set max if you look at team profiles. For a 7th team, you are telling me today that a team not currently in the RPI top 90 is making the tournament.
-The PAC-10 getting 7? Not happening. Again, their 7th best is RPI #88 currently.

Lastly, I am lost as to how Memphis leads to more bids for CUSA, the MVC, or CAA? Not being derogatory on this point, I simply don't see the reasoning. What am I missing?
01-30-2008 03:14 PM
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Post: #34
RE: So...what deserving Big East team will be snubbed in March?
omnicarrier Wrote:
CollegeCard Wrote:
Gray Avenger Wrote:A friend of mine recently put it this way:

"the ncaa isnt going to give almost a quarter of the at large bids to the tournament to one conference. they just arent. so if there are 10 "worthy" big east teams, you can bank that at least 3 are going to get left out. and if those happen to be division III schools, you better bet they are going to be willing to talk about a split a 16 team big east conferece will get 7 bids max."

"Almost a quarter" of the bids is 8, since a quarter would be 8.5. If the league has 8 teams that differentiate themselves and the other leagues are less deserving, we can get 8 bids. 9 or 10, that's unlikely.

I would think using that logic, the max would be 9, not 8. Since "a quarter of the at-large bids" would be 8 plus the automatic qualifier would get the league to 9.

Now how often is the league likely to get to 9 total bids? Not often. But, outside of the Big 10 and the ACC how often over the past decade has...

the Pac 10 gotten 6 bids? (twice);
the SEC or the Big 12 gotten 7 bids? (none);
the Old Big East prior to the new additions gotten 7 bids? (none)

The main exception to the more than half rule appears reserved for the Big Ten and the ACC - because for the most part these two leagues have been perceived to be the best two basketball leagues.

With the Big East beginning to supplant the Big Ten as the other great basketball league and with the ACC being watered down due to football expansion, perhaps this league gets 9 bids (more than half the league's size bid) 4 times over the next decade the same way that the Big Ten has gotten it over the past decade. Who knows? Only time will tell assuming we even stay in this conglomeration for the next 10 years - which I, for one, would prefer not to.

Cheers,
Neil

The NCAA should look at the Big East as the Big East/CUSA, where CUSA rountinley had Cincy, Ville, Marquette (sometimes DePaul) making the tourney. The Big East is a conference and a half.
01-30-2008 03:16 PM
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PirateMarv Offline
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Post: #35
RE: So...what deserving Big East team will be snubbed in March?
MichaelSavage Wrote:
PirateMarv Wrote:
omnicarrier Wrote:
PirateMarv Wrote:
omnicarrier Wrote:
MichaelSavage Wrote:It's practically a rite of spring: A Big East team or two who deserve to go to the Dance will be left out. Last year, it was Syracuse and West Virginia. Who do you think it will be this year?

It's only January. The dog days of February conference games have still to be played, but as of this moment, I really don't see any likely Big East snubs.

I think when everything shakes out the league will get 7 bids -

Georgetown, UConn, Pitt, Marquette, West Virginia, Louisville, and Notre Dame.

The league might manage to scratch out an additional bid from amongst Providence, Seton Hall, Syracuse and Villanova but the best hope there - Syracuse - is also hurt by the fact that they are now down to 6 players and a walk-on point guard.

And that is just too few to be successful in a league as tough as this one.

Cheers,
Neil

Seven (7). I see a minimum of four (4); maybe an outside shot at six (6). To get to that 6th or 7th invitation, one of those teams that you mentioned will need to win the tournament to get in.

And you say this because?....

As I am sure you know, there are 65 bids total, not counting the 6 BCS conferences, there are 25 other conferences.

Of those 25 other conferences, 19 of them are one-bid conferences, no matter who wins any conference championship that may be played.

Another 3 of those 25 are one-bid conferences as long as the only tourney worthy team in them also win the conference championship - these are C-USA (Memphis); Missouri Valley (Drake); and Horizon (Butler).

That leaves 3 mid-majors with assured multiple bids -

A-10 (3 or 4)
Mountain West (2)
West Coast (2).

Assuming 2 of C-USA, Missouri Valley, and Horizon have upset champions and assuming the A-10 gets 4 instead of three that accounts for 32 of the 65 total bids.

Meaning at worse the super-conferences split 33 bids and at best they split 37.

The Pac-10 basically has 6 bids sewn up (unless there is a complete and total collapse by one of those six) and the Big Ten will get no more than 5. So that leaves in the worse case scenario 22 bids to be divvied up between the ACC, Big 12, Big East, and SEC and 26 in the best case scenario.

Now go and look at RealTime RPI and examine the teams in each of those 4 conferences and tell me again the Big East will be hard pressed to get 6 teams in the tourney.

Cheers,
Neil

Just because your conference has 150 teams (sarcasm intended), that does not mean that you all are entitled to 11% of the overall bids offered by the NCAA. You are literally saying that 44% of your overgrown league is entitled to a tournament berth, despite the fact that your conference is at best the 6th most most productive (or best) conference in the NCAA. So in order to get the number of at-large bids that you are talking about, you would need to pass at least 2 of the conferences in front of you.

I list the following teams and where the number of bids that The Big12 is lock for 6 and I would even say 7. The B10 will get 5 or maybe 6. The PAC 10 will get 6-7. The SEC will get 6-7 and the ACC is looking at 5, but you know that the selection committee will give them an extra 1-2 because of their perceived conference strength. The BE is behind all of those conferences.

In fact your conferences best OCC win was when UConn beat Indiana and while that was impressive, it will not help all that much since Memphis is your de facto conference champion (we can feel your pain over here in CUSA, because they have jumped all over us too). So unless I am wrong, and I missed some of your OOC victories, then Memphis victories probably opened the door for other schools in CUSA, CAA, MAC, MWC and MVC to get extra bids. In fact many of these leagues overall strength of schdules are rated pretty close to your league's SOS.

So I would think that Memphis took 1-2 bids from your conference. Did I miss anything?


Wow...did you just say the Big East is the 6th best in basketball? Seriously?

You guys qoute the RPI when it is helpful to you, but not when it hurts your cause. Go look at the real time RPI and right in front of your peepers you will see that the BEast is 6th and CDOA is 7th. Come back when you are done, because I have a few more things to tell you.
01-30-2008 03:23 PM
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aTxTIGER Offline
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Post: #36
RE: So...what deserving Big East team will be snubbed in March?
yea, that is the power ranking not the rpi. we are 11th as a conference, and the big east is.....well, not 11th
01-30-2008 03:26 PM
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PirateMarv Offline
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Post: #37
RE: So...what deserving Big East team will be snubbed in March?
CollegeCard Wrote:
PirateMarv Wrote:Just because your conference has 150 teams (sarcasm intended), that does not mean that you all are entitled to 11% of the overall bids offered by the NCAA. You are literally saying that 44% of your overgrown league is entitled to a tournament berth, despite the fact that your conference is at best the 6th most most productive (or best) conference in the NCAA. So in order to get the number of at-large bids that you are talking about, you would need to pass at least 2 of the conferences in front of you.

I list the following teams and where the number of bids that The Big12 is lock for 6 and I would even say 7. The B10 will get 5 or maybe 6. The PAC 10 will get 6-7. The SEC will get 6-7 and the ACC is looking at 5, but you know that the selection committee will give them an extra 1-2 because of their perceived conference strength. The BE is behind all of those conferences.

Memphis victories probably opened the door for other schools in CUSA, CAA, MAC, MWC and MVC to get extra bids. In fact many of these leagues overall strength of schdules are rated pretty close to your league's SOS.

So I would think that Memphis took 1-2 bids from your conference. Did I miss anything?

Wow. How do you respond to this. Your tone is serious, but the content makes me think you are playing a practical joke. A few things that you mentioned that border towards no chance of happening:

-The Big 10 getting 6 bids. 5 is an absolute lock-step MAX. 4 is way more likely than 6.
-The SEC getting 7 bids? In what season? Again, 6 is a dead-set max if you look at team profiles. For a 7th team, you are telling me today that a team not currently in the RPI top 90 is making the tournament.
-The PAC-10 getting 7? Not happening. Again, their 7th best is RPI #88 currently.

Lastly, I am lost as to how Memphis leads to more bids for CUSA, the MVC, or CAA? Not being derogatory on this point, I simply don't see the reasoning. What am I missing?

First of all Memphis has beaten most of the teams in your conference that you all are touting for the Big Dance. I am unclear as to how in your mind Houston and maybe even a Tulane could possibly be left out, since Memphis beat the crap of everybody? How do you phathom that a BEast team can get more cred than a CUSA team for losing to a common opponent? Not only that, but have you been watching G. Mason and VCU this year? Both of those teams are going, and since ECU beat Mason and N.C. State that strenghtens CUSA's case for the second just that much more.

Finally, let me repeat this one more time. Your best OCC was against Indiana. You have not disputed that, so I assume that is correct. Right?
01-30-2008 03:29 PM
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Post: #38
RE: So...what deserving Big East team will be snubbed in March?
From realtimerpi:

1 Atlantic Coast 0.5850 0.5599 1 12
2 Pacific-10 0.5784 0.5531 3 10
3 Big East 0.5762 0.5597 2 16
4 Big 12 0.5745 0.5497 4 12
5 Southeastern 0.5691 0.5476 6 12
6 Big Ten 0.5577 0.5480 5 11
7 Atlantic 10 0.5494 0.5369 8 14
8 Missouri Valley 0.5456 0.5415 7 10
9 Mountain West 0.5286 0.5109 12 9
10 Horizon League 0.5234 0.5223 9 10

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

11 Conference USA 0.5213 0.5186 11 12
12 West Coast 0.5045 0.5194 10 8
13 Mid-American 0.4985 0.5080 13 12
14 Colonial Athletic 0.4950 0.4944 14 12
15 Sun Belt 0.4893 0.4923 16 13
16 Southern 0.4855 0.4933 15 11
17 Western Athletic 0.4824 0.4905 17 9
18 Metro Atlantic Athletic 0.4812 0.4814 19 10
01-30-2008 03:35 PM
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PirateMarv Offline
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Post: #39
RE: So...what deserving Big East team will be snubbed in March?
MichaelSavage Wrote:From realtimerpi:

1 Atlantic Coast 0.5850 0.5599 1 12
2 Pacific-10 0.5784 0.5531 3 10
3 Big East 0.5762 0.5597 2 16
4 Big 12 0.5745 0.5497 4 12
5 Southeastern 0.5691 0.5476 6 12
6 Big Ten 0.5577 0.5480 5 11
7 Atlantic 10 0.5494 0.5369 8 14
8 Missouri Valley 0.5456 0.5415 7 10
9 Mountain West 0.5286 0.5109 12 9
10 Horizon League 0.5234 0.5223 9 10

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

11 Conference USA 0.5213 0.5186 11 12
12 West Coast 0.5045 0.5194 10 8
13 Mid-American 0.4985 0.5080 13 12
14 Colonial Athletic 0.4950 0.4944 14 12
15 Sun Belt 0.4893 0.4923 16 13
16 Southern 0.4855 0.4933 15 11
17 Western Athletic 0.4824 0.4905 17 9
18 Metro Atlantic Athletic 0.4812 0.4814 19 10

Conference power rankings.

Only games against Division I opponents are counted.
Rankings update every 5 mins.
Last updated - Wed Jan 30 13:15:33 PST 2008 Switch to RPI Ratings

Rank Conference Avg. Index Avg. SOS SOS Rank Teams
1 Pacific-10 77.54 54.25 3 10
2 Big 12 75.44 53.89 5 12
3 Atlantic Coast 75.39 54.88 2 12
4 Big Ten 74.57 54.01 4 11
5 Southeastern 73.74 53.78 6 12
6 Big East 69.22 54.99 1 16
7 Conference USA 61.28 51.47 11 12
8 Atlantic 10 59.05 53.07 8 14
9 Missouri Valley 56.51 53.62 7 10
10 Horizon League 56.42 52.01 9 10

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

11 Mountain West 54.10 50.66 13 9
12 West Coast 49.81 51.94 10 8
13 Colonial Athletic 49.13 49.56 15 12
14 Mid-American 49.06 50.88 12 12
15 Sun Belt 48.95 49.34 16 13
16 Western Athletic 48.62 49.29 17 9
17 Patriot League 48.16 46.08 27 8
18 Big West 47.81 47.97 21 9
19 Southern 47.74 49.64 14 11
20 Metro Atlantic Athletic 47.66 48.41 19 10

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

21 Southland 46.58 47.05 24 12
22 Summit 46.00 48.12 20 10
23 Northeast 45.63 46.42 25 11
24 Ivy League 45.51 48.87 18 8
25 Big Sky 44.83 47.68 22 9
26 Big South 44.65 46.17 26 8
27 America East 43.34 46.01 28 9
28 Ohio Valley 42.42 44.92 31 11
29 Atlantic Sun 41.99 45.92 29 12
30 Mid-Eastern 41.92 47.22 23 11

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

31 Southwestern Athletic 37.50 45.10 30 10
32 Independents 34.48 43.58 32 11

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
01-30-2008 03:40 PM
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MichaelSavage Offline
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Post: #40
RE: So...what deserving Big East team will be snubbed in March?
Here's what Sagarin has:

1 PACIFIC-10 = 84.20 83.69 ( 1) 10
2 BIG 12 = 82.31 82.62 ( 3) 12
3 BIG EAST = 81.73 81.58 ( 4) 16
4 ATLANTIC COAST = 81.65 82.81 ( 2) 12
5 BIG TEN = 80.78 80.57 ( 5) 11
6 SOUTHEASTERN = 80.42 80.54 ( 6) 12
7 MISSOURI VALLEY = 77.64 77.81 ( 7) 10
8 ATLANTIC 10 = 77.63 77.48 ( 8) 14
9 MOUNTAIN WEST = 77.00 76.56 ( 9) 9
10 HORIZON = 75.43 75.27 ( 10) 10
11 CONFERENCE USA = 74.73 75.03 ( 11) 12
12 MID-AMERICAN = 73.36 73.55 ( 12) 12
13 WEST COAST = 72.39 73.03 ( 13) 8
14 SOUTHERN = 72.06 71.45 ( 15) 11
15 COLONIAL = 71.52 71.90 ( 14) 12
16 WESTERN ATHLETIC = 71.50 70.83 ( 18) 9
17 BIG WEST = 71.33 71.11 ( 17) 9
18 METRO ATLANTIC = 70.58 70.26 ( 20) 10
19 SUN BELT = 70.40 71.15 ( 16) 13
20 SUMMIT LEAGUE = 69.85 70.72 ( 19) 10
21 PATRIOT = 69.45 69.51 ( 21) 8
22 BIG SKY = 69.20 68.78 ( 23) 9
23 SOUTHLAND = 68.39 69.04 ( 22) 12
24 BIG SOUTH = 68.24 68.43 ( 24) 8
25 NORTHEAST = 67.59 67.36 ( 26) 11
26 IVY LEAGUE = 67.29 67.61 ( 25) 8
27 AMERICA EAST = 66.53 66.60 ( 27) 9
28 ATLANTIC SUN = 65.75 65.46 ( 28) 12
29 OHIO VALLEY = 65.07 64.69 ( 29) 11
30 MID-EASTERN = 63.72 63.99 ( 30) 12
31 INDEPENDENTS = 61.77 60.97 ( 31) 9
32 SOUTHWESTERN = 59.00 59.24 ( 32) 10
01-30-2008 03:50 PM
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