I've taken the Rushing Offense, Passing Offense, Rushing Defense, and Passing Defense stats from ncaa.org and averaged those statistical rankings for all WAC teams and all of their D1A OOC opponents. I match those teams up according to their schedule, in the second pic, and assign a "W" to the team with the higher average ranking and vice versa with an "L".

Here are the results;

2006 Final Predicted Standings
1. Fresno St 11-1 8-0
2. Boise St 10-2 7-1
3. Nevada 10-2 6-2
4. La Tech 8-5 5-3
5. Hawaii 7-6 4-4
6. SJSU 5-7 3-5
7. Idaho 3-9 2-6
8. Utah St 1-11 1-7
9. NMSU 2-10 0-8

Of course, this is based purely on stats and only 4 statistical categories, and doesn't take into account home field advantages, travel, injuries and other changes that would take place from last year.

I found it interesting. It could be used as a barometer to see how our teams have improved since last year when the season is over.

I can't argue with those though I would like to see my Spartans at .500 at least.

If you only found a way to factor personnel losses into your scenario.

For example, Fresno State starting a new quarterback is gonna cost them at least a couple of games. Utah missing their only running back threat can't be good for them. TCU loses 4 starting O-Lineman. BYU lost WR Todd Watkins. Nevada lost a great RB.

Perhaps take the # of starters from last year's team, divide by the number of returning starters, and then multiply that by the final score that you came up with (the sum of the rush/pass offense/defense national rankings, divided by four).

...perhaps we're getting too into this. And it still wouldn't factor in new freshmen starters, JC recruits, and transfer players.

If my count is correct, the WAC would have the following records;

PAC 10: 6-3
BCS: 8-10
MWC: 5-6
Other D1A: 1-1

I see our record vs the MWC being better, but our record vs the BCS not being so good. I show our only losses to PAC 10 teams being Idaho @Washington St, Idaho @Oregon St and SJSU @Washington.

Just to give you an idea of how accurate this was using last year's stats...

Running last year's schedule, before bowls, here are the records according to this kind of analysis.

Team Overall Conference (Actual) Difference
Fresno St 10-2 8-0 (8-4 6-2) -2
Boise St 10-2 7-1 (9-3 7-1) -1
Nevada 9-2 6-2 (8-3 7-1) -1
La Tech 5-6 5-3 (7-4 6-2) +2
Hawaii 4-8 4-4 (5-7 4-4) +1
SJSU 5-6 3-5 (3-8 2-6) -2
Idaho 3-8 2-6 (2-9 2-6) -1
Utah St 2-9 1-7 (3-8 2-6) +1
NMSU 0-12 0-8 (0-12 0-8) 0

Negative Difference: Underachievers Positive Difference: Overachievers