Ninerfan1 Wrote:Don't know if it has anything to do with Oprah but Hillary has lost her 20 point lead in NH.

If Obama can take Iowa, NH and South Carolina that may be the death nail to Hillary's campaign.

20 Point Lead gone

A couple of polls state that only 1% of those polled would be likely to vote for Obama because of Oprah's endorsement. 15% in the CBS poll actually said they would be less likely because of it.

Dick Morris said "Those polls don't mean anything." He also said he thinks Hillary will Lose not only Iowa and NH, but SC as well. Then Democrats will realize that Obama's 100 weeks as a US Senator aren't enough experience to be president and Hillary will win MI, FL and ultimately the nomination. Morris is usually right on in his observations.

Let's face it Obama doesn't have 100 weeks experience as a US Senator. He has about 1 week, and 99 weeks experience as a presidential candidate. Lots of people give great speeches and have great ideas, that doesn't mean they have the experience to be president. Obama would be the biggest disaster as US President since Jimmy Carter.

THE NC Herd Fan Wrote:

Ninerfan1 Wrote:Don't know if it has anything to do with Oprah but Hillary has lost her 20 point lead in NH.

If Obama can take Iowa, NH and South Carolina that may be the death nail to Hillary's campaign.

20 Point Lead gone

A couple of polls state that only 1% of those polled would be likely to vote for Obama because of Oprah's endorsement. 15% in the CBS poll actually said they would be less likely because of it.

Dick Morris said "Those polls don't mean anything." He also said he thinks Hillary will Lose not only Iowa and NH, but SC as well. Then Democrats will realize that Obama's 100 weeks as a US Senator aren't enough experience to be president and Hillary will win MI, FL and ultimately the nomination. Morris is usually right on in his observations.

Let's face it Obama doesn't have 100 weeks experience as a US Senator. He has about 1 week, and 99 weeks experience as a presidential candidate. Lots of people give great speeches and have great ideas, that doesn't mean they have the experience to be president. Obama would be the biggest disaster as US President since Jimmy Carter.

Obama was in the Senate for two years before running for President. Before that he was in the Illinois legislature accomplishing real change for working people for a decade.

Obama raised 100 million dollars this year and ran even or better in fundraising with the Clinton machine despite having no network to speak of prior to this year. His campaign has almost no surrogates to get their message out, as Hillary snapped up all the insiders. And yet he's still running neck and neck in all the meaningful early states with Hillary.

I think that speaks pretty highly of his competence. When you factor in that he was right on Iraq before it was obvious to the rest of Washington, and that he was right on engaging with Iran before it has become fashionable to advocate that, I think his judgment speaks for itself.

Carter had horrible judgment. Barack's public life has had no such examples of poor judgment. Clinton's campaign and public record on the other hand has been rife with bad judgment. Just look at her in recent weeks. Her operation and her candidacy are stumbling badly when it counts the most. Factor in her horrible judgment on Iraq, and you get the complete picture. When you look at it objectively and absent media spin, its not Barack that is not ready for prime time, Its Hillary.

Oh and don't believe for a second that 99% of people won't be influenced by Oprah's support. Nobody is going to tell a pollster "yeah, I will support who Oprah supports"... that's way too embarassing. But believe me, if it didn't matter, you wouldn't see the polls closing over the past week.

By the way, MI and FL delegates aren't in play this year. Those primaries are meaningless beauty contests.

No candidate has ever lost contested primaries in Iowa and NH and gone on to win the nomination. I find it hard to believe that this year's compressed primary schedule will be the first.

OUGwave Wrote:

THE NC Herd Fan Wrote:

Ninerfan1 Wrote:Don't know if it has anything to do with Oprah but Hillary has lost her 20 point lead in NH.

If Obama can take Iowa, NH and South Carolina that may be the death nail to Hillary's campaign.

20 Point Lead gone

A couple of polls state that only 1% of those polled would be likely to vote for Obama because of Oprah's endorsement. 15% in the CBS poll actually said they would be less likely because of it.

Dick Morris said "Those polls don't mean anything." He also said he thinks Hillary will Lose not only Iowa and NH, but SC as well. Then Democrats will realize that Obama's 100 weeks as a US Senator aren't enough experience to be president and Hillary will win MI, FL and ultimately the nomination. Morris is usually right on in his observations.

Let's face it Obama doesn't have 100 weeks experience as a US Senator. He has about 1 week, and 99 weeks experience as a presidential candidate. Lots of people give great speeches and have great ideas, that doesn't mean they have the experience to be president. Obama would be the biggest disaster as US President since Jimmy Carter.

Obama was in the Senate for two years before running for President. Before that he was in the Illinois legislature accomplishing real change for working people for a decade.

Obama raised 100 million dollars this year and ran even or better in fundraising with the Clinton machine despite having no network to speak of prior to this year. His campaign has almost no surrogates to get their message out, as Hillary snapped up all the insiders. And yet he's still running neck and neck in all the meaningful early states with Hillary.

I think that speaks pretty highly of his competence. When you factor in that he was right on Iraq before it was obvious to the rest of Washington, and that he was right on engaging with Iran before it has become fashionable to advocate that, I think his judgment speaks for itself.

Carter had horrible judgment. Barack's public life has had no such examples of poor judgment. Clinton's campaign and public record on the other hand has been rife with bad judgment. Just look at her in recent weeks. Her operation and her candidacy are stumbling badly when it counts the most. Factor in her horrible judgment on Iraq, and you get the complete picture. When you look at it objectively and absent media spin, its not Barack that is not ready for prime time, Its Hillary.

Oh and don't believe for a second that 99% of people won't be influenced by Oprah's support. Nobody is going to tell a pollster "yeah, I will support who Oprah supports"... that's way too embarassing. But believe me, if it didn't matter, you wouldn't see the polls closing over the past week.

By the way, MI and FL delegates aren't in play this year. Those primaries are meaningless beauty contests.

No candidate has ever lost contested primaries in Iowa and NH and gone on to win the nomination. I find it hard to believe that this year's compressed primary schedule will be the first.

Obama's decade in the IL legislature translates to less than 2 years on the job most likely each session is only 30 - 60 days. Raising lots of money doesn't mean he'll win. His lack of experience may hurt him since he had a cakewalk election for US Senate and never held state wide office prior to that. You'd better believe that Hillary operatives are beating the bushes for garbage and if it's found, it will mysteriously leak to the press just days before a key primary. Hillary on the other hand doesn't have much people don't know about so I don't think there are any surprises that can be leaked. If this gets dirty, Obama probably has more unknown risk.

Quite frankly its the Hillary campaign that looks inexperienced at this point.

Obama looks like a pro right now, taking on the biggest machine in politics with apparent ease.

There's no dirt on Obama, I promise you. He's not perfect, but there's just no scandal or impropriety. Believe me, the Clintons have been trying. The best their oppo research team could come up with (see Novak's column) is that his PAC had (shock) given money to Democratic candidate's campaigns who later endorsed him -- nevermind that it also gave to HRC supporters' after they had endorsed her -- and HRC herself in 2006.

The fumbling that you are seeing right now from Clinton HQ is that they cannot find an angle to attack him with -- nothing is sticking. Its not for lack of trying on their part. And they are very good at this. There's just nothing there.

He's actually a decent human being, which is what has them so flummoxed.

Obama was in the Senate for two years before running for President.
Obama's decade in the IL legislature translates to less than 2 years on the job most likely each session is only 30 - 60 days.

No, legislatures in Illinois are well paid compared to most, total session time on an annual basis averages 6 months per year. Base pay is $57,619. The most recent NCSL study shows Illinois legislators are 7th national in average base pay. in addition most earn additional stipends that begin at $8,800 and range up to $23,500 for the Senate and House Speakers.



Raising lots of money doesn't mean he'll win.

But having lots of $ means he will get his message out in the media and build name recognition necessary to win.