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Sagarin Ratings Conference
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Maize Offline
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Sagarin Ratings Conference
CONFERENCE CENTRAL MEAN SIMPLE AVERAGE TEAMS

1 SOUTHEASTERN (A) = 80.79 80.43 ( 1) 12
2 BIG 12 (A) = 78.23 77.60 ( 4) 12
3 BIG EAST (A) = 78.21 77.61 ( 3) 8
4 ATLANTIC COAST (A) = 77.77 77.58 ( 5) 12
5 PAC-10 (A) = 77.73 78.11 ( 2) 10
6 BIG TEN (A) = 74.72 74.86 ( 6) 11


http://www.usatoday.com/sports/sagarin/f...titialskip
(This post was last modified: 10-28-2007 08:55 AM by Maize.)
10-28-2007 08:11 AM
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bitcruncher Offline
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RE: Sagarin Ratings Conference
The Big 12 ranked ahead of the Pac 10 and The BEast? That's got to be a misprint. There is no way the Big 12 is better.
10-28-2007 06:04 PM
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goodknightfl Offline
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RE: Sagarin Ratings Conference
these things get thrown way out of wack.. by the top one or 2 of each conf and the bottom 1 or 2.. CUSA if it was a 10 team league without the bottom 2.. would be a solid #8..but U have to count the whole mess so ends up at 13...
10-30-2007 08:52 AM
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TexanMark Offline
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RE: Sagarin Ratings Conference
I'd like to apologize for Syracuse having a Div 1AA team the past three seasons...sorry
10-30-2007 09:00 AM
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wvucrazed Offline
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RE: Sagarin Ratings Conference
CUSA is now behind two 1-AA leagues, the Southern and Colonial.

As bad as CUSA is, I really don't believe as a league they are worse than the Southern and Colonial. There is something screwy with these numbers.
10-30-2007 09:43 AM
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KNIGHTTIME Offline
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RE: Sagarin Ratings Conference
wvucrazed Wrote:CUSA is now behind two 1-AA leagues, the Southern and Colonial.

As bad as CUSA is, I really don't believe as a league they are worse than the Southern and Colonial. There is something screwy with these numbers.

Two C-USA teams lost to D-1aa teams. That kills your sagarin ranking. The bottom of a league can really screw things up for your ranking when they count D-1aa losses.
10-30-2007 10:10 AM
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wvucrazed Offline
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RE: Sagarin Ratings Conference
KNIGHTTIME Wrote:
wvucrazed Wrote:CUSA is now behind two 1-AA leagues, the Southern and Colonial.

As bad as CUSA is, I really don't believe as a league they are worse than the Southern and Colonial. There is something screwy with these numbers.

Two C-USA teams lost to D-1aa teams. That kills your sagarin ranking. The bottom of a league can really screw things up for your ranking when they count D-1aa losses.

Yeah, but presumably teams in the CAA and Southern conference have more then 2 losses to 1-AA teams. And they have few wins over 1-A teams. I suppose Delaware's win over Navy put the CAA up a bit, but still.... maybe the top 5 or 6 teams could compete week in and week out with 1-A, but I really think the bottom of any 1-AA league has got to be worse than the bottom of any 1-A league.
10-30-2007 10:32 AM
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LaRue777 Offline
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Rolleyes RE: Sagarin Ratings Conference
I find it interesting that if you read Sagarin's methods for determining rankings he offers a disclaimer that the ranking used by the BCS are the "politically correct" rankings where score margins are not a factor. He pretty much admits that these rankings need to be taken with a grain of salt.

I don't know if anyone wants to see a situation where teams are encouraged to run up the score. They do it anyway of course if for no other reason then to influence the poll voters. I think most coaches just decide on a victory margin that looks "good enough" hopefully without embarrassing the other team.
10-30-2007 11:48 AM
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CollegeCard Offline
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RE: Sagarin Ratings Conference
CUSA is probably better overall than those two I-AA leagues, but I think they may be the worst I-A league this season. Up to this point this has got to be the worst year for the league, at least this decade, if not ever. Half of the league is below the 120 cutoff of I-A teams and 75% of the league is below the top 100.

A look at the East tells the story. I hadn't checked out the CUSA standings for a while and was really surprised by the East standings. It looks the division will come down to ECU, UCF, & Memphis. ECU & UCF lost by a combined 112-19 to USF & WVU. The surprising part for me is that Memphis is actually in a potential spot to challenge for a division title. The Tigers were soundly defeated by both Sun Belt teams they played, & were winless against I-A opponents in non-conference play. They also lost to Ole Miss, who is headed for an 0-8 trainwreck in the SEC. However the Tigers are 3-1 in CUSA. When you have to question if a winless SEC team could win a CUSA division, the difference between CUSA and the BCS leagues has never been greater in my opinion.
10-30-2007 01:06 PM
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mattsarz Offline
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RE: Sagarin Ratings Conference
CAA win over Division I-A
New Hamshire over Marshall

SoCon win over Division I-A
App St. over Michigan

C-USA has losses to teams from the Southland and CAA.
10-30-2007 02:07 PM
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Tigeer Offline
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RE: Sagarin Ratings Conference
CollegeCard Wrote:CUSA is probably better overall than those two I-AA leagues, but I think they may be the worst I-A league this season. Up to this point this has got to be the worst year for the league, at least this decade, if not ever. Half of the league is below the 120 cutoff of I-A teams and 75% of the league is below the top 100.

A look at the East tells the story. I hadn't checked out the CUSA standings for a while and was really surprised by the East standings. It looks the division will come down to ECU, UCF, & Memphis. ECU & UCF lost by a combined 112-19 to USF & WVU. The surprising part for me is that Memphis is actually in a potential spot to challenge for a division title. The Tigers were soundly defeated by both Sun Belt teams they played, & were winless against I-A opponents in non-conference play. They also lost to Ole Miss, who is headed for an 0-8 trainwreck in the SEC. However the Tigers are 3-1 in CUSA. When you have to question if a winless SEC team could win a CUSA division, the difference between CUSA and the BCS leagues has never been greater in my opinion.

I wouldn't say soundly defeated by both Sun Belt teams for Memphis. The ASU loss for Memphis can not be explained - up I think 31-6 at halftime to lose 34-31 - painful to listen to on the net. BTW - MTSU gave the UoL a pretty good game for about 3.5 quarters - I listened to that one on Sirius. Other than that I can't argue with you; Ole Miss pretty much stinks - the gap between CUSA and the BE is huge and may continue to widen unless something changes. Memphis, USM and ECU may need to rethink their alignment to gain a competetive advantage of some kind.
(This post was last modified: 10-30-2007 02:12 PM by Tigeer.)
10-30-2007 02:10 PM
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EvilVodka1 Offline
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RE: Sagarin Ratings Conference
bitcruncher Wrote:The Big 12 ranked ahead of the Pac 10 and The BEast? That's got to be a misprint. There is no way the Big 12 is better.

lol
why not?

the Big XII North got alot better this year...
10-30-2007 02:40 PM
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wvucrazed Offline
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RE: Sagarin Ratings Conference
Tigeer Wrote:Memphis, USM and ECU may need to rethink their alignment to gain a competetive advantage of some kind.

I would imagine CUSA will split at some point. The Western schools will eventually recreate some form of the SWC, and the Eastern schools have plenty of candidates to merge with to form a more regional league.
10-30-2007 02:44 PM
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mattsarz Offline
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RE: Sagarin Ratings Conference
EvilVodka1 Wrote:
bitcruncher Wrote:The Big 12 ranked ahead of the Pac 10 and The BEast? That's got to be a misprint. There is no way the Big 12 is better.

lol
why not?

the Big XII North got alot better this year...

Agreed. Three teams in the top ten of the BCS (Oklahoma, Mizzou and Kansas). Texas at #15. No other conference can say that have that many in the top 15, not even the mighty SEC.

Top 15 BCS

ACC - 2
Big East - 2
Big Ten - 2
Big 12 - 4
PAC-10 - 2
SEC - 2
WAC - 1
(This post was last modified: 10-30-2007 02:49 PM by mattsarz.)
10-30-2007 02:48 PM
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CollegeCard Offline
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RE: Sagarin Ratings Conference
Tigeer Wrote:
CollegeCard Wrote:CUSA is probably better overall than those two I-AA leagues, but I think they may be the worst I-A league this season. Up to this point this has got to be the worst year for the league, at least this decade, if not ever. Half of the league is below the 120 cutoff of I-A teams and 75% of the league is below the top 100.

A look at the East tells the story. I hadn't checked out the CUSA standings for a while and was really surprised by the East standings. It looks the division will come down to ECU, UCF, & Memphis. ECU & UCF lost by a combined 112-19 to USF & WVU. The surprising part for me is that Memphis is actually in a potential spot to challenge for a division title. The Tigers were soundly defeated by both Sun Belt teams they played, & were winless against I-A opponents in non-conference play. They also lost to Ole Miss, who is headed for an 0-8 trainwreck in the SEC. However the Tigers are 3-1 in CUSA. When you have to question if a winless SEC team could win a CUSA division, the difference between CUSA and the BCS leagues has never been greater in my opinion.

I wouldn't say soundly defeated by both Sun Belt teams for Memphis. The ASU loss for Memphis can not be explained - up I think 31-6 at halftime to lose 34-31 - painful to listen to on the net. BTW - MTSU gave the UoL a pretty good game for about 3.5 quarters - I listened to that one on Sirius. Other than that I can't argue with you; Ole Miss pretty much stinks - the gap between CUSA and the BE is huge and may continue to widen unless something changes. Memphis, USM and ECU may need to rethink their alignment to gain a competetive advantage of some kind.

I stand corrected on my language with the Tiger's game @ Arkansas St. That was a close final result. I was shocked at the time though when Memphis lost by 2 touchdowns to MTSU at home. UofL played horrible against MTSU, and still won by 16, with the Raiders not getting within 2 TD's over the final 11 minutes of the game. That's a 30 point swing over their result in the Liberty Bowl.

I didn't personally study the returning personnel for the Tigers over the summer, but they were a trendy pick to go from 2-10 to a great record. Phil Steele is the most accurate in an inaccurate business, and he liked Memphis. You returned a lot of starters, had a cake schedule, and most Tiger fans on here where predicting a bowl return, so I went with it. Tommy West could prove me wrong if Memphis finishes the season by reeling off wins, but you have to start wondering if it was all DeAngelo Williams and if the current talent level is simply not there.

I admittedly haven't caught many CUSA games this season, but did watch UCF-USM on Sunday. What can you say about the Golden Eagles? They are a shell of their former program. While they never beat good teams out of league, they'd always give them a scare and they dominated their fellow non-BCS opponents. By the time UofL left the league the Cards had replaced them as the power team, but I felt USM would regain a power position. I now think they're actually solidly worse than in 2004. You used to be able to count on their defense, but nothing impresses now. With the lesson of Steve Logan in mind I wouldn't say USM should shelve Jeff Bower, but something needs change.

I didn't expect such a gap between ECU and top 25 type teams this season either. They're my favorite to win CUSA East at this point, but I can't label them much above mediocre this year after seeing them against WVU and seeing how they lost at home to a sad NC St club. ECU does seem to have the right coach in place and their future looks brighter than most, however CUSA may not work well longterm.

We shouldn't get too caught up in one season and proclaim doom for a league. However, I'm not sure I see anything tangible to show CUSA is ready to step above the other non-BCS leagues & proclaim at least the #7 spot. Throw in that the Sun Belt is quitely eliminating the gap between themselves and the CUSA/MAC/WAC combo, and who knows what the future holds. The Belt is 9-8 vs. CUSA over the last two years, and the leagues seem like near even rivals. CUSA does has superior bowls and TV, along with a solid 12 members at this point. I wouldn't be shocked though if 6-8 years from now the current CUSA East was playing league games against current S.B. eastern members such as Troy, FAU, & MTSU, while you had a SWC-lite league created from a CUSA West core.

While an addition to this league isn't guaranteed, if I was Memphis I'd be putting everything into building football to try and show they're the team to take if the Big East adds someone. They could do it all and it still may not be enough, with geography actually being a legit excuse for R.C. on this occasion (unlike last time), but they surely won't be picked without the investment.
10-30-2007 04:38 PM
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OUBOBCATJOHN Offline
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RE: Sagarin Ratings Conference
MAC plays a lot more games vs the Big Ten and Big East than CUSA. Buffalo played Rutgers and Syracuse. Temple played UConn. Miami played Cincinnati and Syracuse. Akron played UConn, EMU played Pitt. WMU played West Virginia. That's a nice boost to the SOS for the MAC. CUSA plays the Sun Belt more than the MAC. When the Big East is having a good year, that helps the MAC and Big Ten SOS numbers.
10-30-2007 11:40 PM
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RE: Sagarin Ratings Conference
CollegeCard Wrote:CUSA is probably better overall than those two I-AA leagues, but I think they may be the worst I-A league this season. Up to this point this has got to be the worst year for the league, at least this decade, if not ever. Half of the league is below the 120 cutoff of I-A teams and 75% of the league is below the top 100.

A look at the East tells the story. I hadn't checked out the CUSA standings for a while and was really surprised by the East standings. It looks the division will come down to ECU, UCF, & Memphis. ECU & UCF lost by a combined 112-19 to USF & WVU. The surprising part for me is that Memphis is actually in a potential spot to challenge for a division title. The Tigers were soundly defeated by both Sun Belt teams they played, & were winless against I-A opponents in non-conference play. They also lost to Ole Miss, who is headed for an 0-8 trainwreck in the SEC. However the Tigers are 3-1 in CUSA. When you have to question if a winless SEC team could win a CUSA division, the difference between CUSA and the BCS leagues has never been greater in my opinion.

Memphis' 3-1 start in conference play is a little misleading. The Tigers' three wins came over Marshall (1-7), Rice (1-7) and Tulane (2-6). Our average margin of victory vs. those three teams is 2.3ppg. In other words, Memphis barely beat three absolutely terrible teams to get to a 3-1 start in the league. The two positives to take from that is that they won them instead of losing them and they won two of them on the road. The game this weekend against ECU at the Liberty Bowl will tell us if Memphis has turned some sort of corner or if it really is nothing but beating three sorry teams. The funny thing is that even if the Tigers lose to ECU and Southern Miss, they can still win six games and become bowl eligible if all they do is beat UAB (2-6) and SMU (1-7) (both at home).
(This post was last modified: 10-31-2007 05:43 AM by JMSTiger.)
10-31-2007 05:42 AM
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CollegeCard Offline
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RE: Sagarin Ratings Conference
JMSTiger Wrote:Memphis' 3-1 start in conference play is a little misleading. The Tigers' three wins came over Marshall (1-7), Rice (1-7) and Tulane (2-6). Our average margin of victory vs. those three teams is 2.3ppg. In other words, Memphis barely beat three absolutely terrible teams to get to a 3-1 start in the league. The two positives to take from that is that they won them instead of losing them and they won two of them on the road. The game this weekend against ECU at the Liberty Bowl will tell us if Memphis has turned some sort of corner or if it really is nothing but beating three sorry teams. The funny thing is that even if the Tigers lose to ECU and Southern Miss, they can still win six games and become bowl eligible if all they do is beat UAB (2-6) and SMU (1-7) (both at home).

You're right that 3-1 is a little misleading, considering who they have played. Memphis has what is literally the easiest conference schedule possible for a team in the East since they play the #4-6 teams from the West.

The amazing thing is that despite being halfway through conference play, CUSA enters November with 5 of their league teams having a combined 7-33 record. Beating those 5 and a I-AA gets you 6 wins and bowl eligibility.
10-31-2007 10:44 AM
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RE: Sagarin Ratings Conference
KNIGHTTIME Wrote:
wvucrazed Wrote:CUSA is now behind two 1-AA leagues, the Southern and Colonial.

As bad as CUSA is, I really don't believe as a league they are worse than the Southern and Colonial. There is something screwy with these numbers.

Two C-USA teams lost to D-1aa teams. That kills your sagarin ranking. The bottom of a league can really screw things up for your ranking when they count D-1aa losses.
And the "top" of your conference being ECU, UCF, Houston, and Tulsa doesnt really help does it? 4 teams that would be bottom feeders in any bcs conference. C-DOA is a joke. Possibly the worst conference in 1a, right down there with the sun belt.
10-31-2007 11:50 AM
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goodknightfl Offline
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RE: Sagarin Ratings Conference
Lets be honest BB.. most if not all schools without the BCS tag would be in the bottom of the bcs...Your bulls would be a shell of what they are.. had BC stayed in the BE and the BE brought in UCF as a fb only..(which they would have to keep a fla presence..) then rather than putting on your attitude u would be looking up at us. USF got the breaks.. and others didn't..
11-03-2007 07:18 AM
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