This is the beginning of what will turn into some sort of college football blog on NCAABBS. The main focal points will be analyzing the college football games that could impact the BCS picture, and the overall general bowl picture. We should get a different sort of set up later on, but for now we'll just post the articles on the message boards.


-Let me start off with my preseason disclaimer. When it comes to college sports, ANY team sport, I have what I call the one-third theory. By that I mean that when you at the rankings at the end of the season, you’ll probably find that a third of the teams were much better than expected, a third of the teams were much worse than expected, and only a third of the teams were about the same. For that reason, I use the preseason previews as a chance to learn about the teams rather than an attempt to try and guess where they are going to end up. Just keep that in mind. If you think I’m way off with something, you’re probably right. Like everyone else, I’m probably going to be wrong with my preseason predictions about 66% of the time.



SEC

-This league appears to have the most parity and the most overall strength of any conference in the country. It’s a shame that the BCS Bowl system is set up the way that it is because with this league being as strong as it is it makes it much more unlikely that the SEC will produce an unbeaten team to play for the BCS Championship. Many of the conference title contenders also step up to the plate and schedule big games out of conference. Tennessee is opening the season at California, and will also face Southern Mississippi, who is a bowl caliber team. Georgia is facing Georgia Tech later this year, and they open the season against a very good Oklahoma State team. Florida will face Florida State later this year. LSU will face Virginia Tech their second game of the year. I’m not an SEC blowhard. To be honest I’m not really a fan of any of the teams in the league. However, there is no denying that no conference looks tougher, and no conference appears to challenge itself more.

-Florida has a new quarterback in Tim Tebow, but he is very talented and should adjust to the position very quickly. They have two garbage games to open the season against Western Kentucky and Troy before their first real test against Tennessee. The Gators lost most of their defense as well, and that could be a factor as they go through the gauntlet that is the SEC.

-Georgia is another team that lost most of its defense. Freshman quarterback Matthew Stafford struggled a year ago, but he should improve this season and be a more reliable player. He, along with the rest of the offense, appeared to improve toward the end of last season, and they bring a lot of experience back to this year’s team. They have a big game against Oklahoma State to open the season.

-Tennessee is another team who could challenge for the East Title. Erik Ainge completed an unbelievable 67% of his passes last season, and should be a huge asset to the Vols this year if he can stay healthy, which has been an issue for him throughout his career. It’s hard to say how strong the Vols’ receivers are, but they appear to be very strong at the running back position. Their defense returns five starters and once again appears to be strong at the linebacker position. They’ll be challenged right out of the gate as they open the season against California.

-LSU appears to have a quarterback controversy, but they have a very strong backfield and appear to have a strong offensive line. The Tigers also have a very strong defense this year. They aren’t wasting any time as they open the season against conference foe Mississippi State, so right away they are playing a game that will impact the SEC West Title. Their second game is against Virginia Tech, who like LSU is a BCS caliber team. We’ll find out very early what the Tigers are capable of.

-Auburn had to deal with injuries last year on offense. Quarterback Brandon Cox is at full strength, which should help out the Tigers. They also appear to have a strong backfield and some big players coming back on defense. Their first four games are at home, but they’ll face a Kansas State team in their first game who continues to improve, and a very dangerous South Florida team in their second game.

-Arkansas had a big year last year and are another team to watch this year. They appear to have a strong running game once again with Darren McFadden coming back, but they appear to be weaker when it comes to the passing game. They also lost some big defensive players from last year’s team. They are pretty much a shoe-in for a bowl game, but I don’t see them winning the West this year. They have a big game at Alabama their second game of the season.

-Alabama appears to be very strong on offense this year. They were able to move the ball last year, but seemed to struggle in the red zone. They really fell apart down the stretch last year as well losing their last four games, but three of those were by less than a touchdown. The arrival of head coach Nick Saban and the return of several contributing players on offense, the Tide should have a pretty solid year. They may struggle on the defensive side of the ball, though.

-Kentucky is another team to watch for. They aren’t likely to make the BCS, but they are a solid bowl team that should be able to pull an upset or two. They won five of their last six games last year with the only loss being against Tennessee in a game that came down to the wire. They return a lot of talent and experience on both offense and defense, so watch out for the Wildcats this year.


PAC TEN

-USC is one of the best offensive teams on the country. Quarterback John David Booty is a Heisman Trophy candidate, and they are so strong and deep at running back that guys coming off the bench would probably start for most top ten teams. Defensively, they return just about everyone. They are absolutely fantastic on both sides of the ball. If anyone beats this team this season, it will be considered an upset. They do have some challenges, the biggest of which is a road game against California, but other than that they appear to be the favorites in every game they play.

-UCLA finished the season very strong last year. They were sort of embarrassed in their bowl game, but they appear to have a very strong team this year. They begin the season ranked #14, but they are probably better than that. They return nearly all their contributing players on both offense and defense, including quarterback Ben Olsen, who missed the second half of the season due to injury. They are also very strong on defense, and have one of the best defensive ends in the country in Bruce Davis. The Bruins open their season in conference against Stanford, and host a very good BYU team after that. They will then be tested when they go on the road against Utah, so they don’t have the option of easing in to their season like a lot of teams like to do. They appear to be ready for it, though.

-California has one of the most accurate passing quarterbacks in the country in Nate Longshore. They also have most of their offense coming back from last year, so they are very strong on that side of the ball. They have some pretty strong linebackers, but the defense doesn’t appear to be as strong as the offense. Still, it should be a huge year for California. They open the season against Tennessee in what is a huge game. They also have a big game at UCLA. If they can survive both of those games, they should be unbeaten on November 10th when they face USC at home in what would be a huge game with national championship implications.

-There is a bit of a drop-off after that, but there are still some very competitive teams. Oregon State won their last four games last year and finished the season nationally ranked. They return quite a bit of talent on both offense and defense, so they should be a factor in the league this year. They have two big games early against Utah and Cincinnati. Those teams may not be on a lot of team’s radars, but both have a lot of potential and will likely end up having big years.

-Arizona is another team to keep an eye on. They continue to improve under head coach Mike Stoops, and were playing very well down the stretch last year. They haven’t been to a bowl since 1998, but I believe they’ll make one this year. They have quite a few players coming back on both offense and defense, appear to be very strong on the line, and have quarterback Willie Tuitama back at full strength, which will be a huge asset to them. They have a big game the first week against a very good BYU team.


BIG TWELVE

-Three teams in the South and two teams in the North are very strong. In the North, it appears to be a toss up between Missouri and Nebraska. In the South, Texas, Texas A&M and Oklahoma all appear to be contenders.

-Texas looks to be a national title contender at best and a solid BCS caliber team at worst. With the exception of giving up 45 points against Kansas State last year, the defense was solid, and they have a ton of talent and experience coming back. Colt McCoy’s injury in the latter part of the season affected their offense, but he is back and in full force for this season. Their toughest tests are Oklahoma in the Cotton Bowl, and at Texas A&M to close the year. They have Nebraska at home, who came close to beating them last year, but the home field should give them the edge. They could see the Huskers twice this season if they advance to the conference title game.

-Oklahoma is solid as well. Lots of talent coming back on both sides of the ball, but they do have an issue at quarterback. Still, that should work itself out. They do have a potentially big game against Miami, FL the second week of the season, but other than that the schedule is very manageable. The quarterback will get plenty of experience before they have to face Texas.

-Texas A&M was blown out by California in the Holiday Bowl last season, but prior to that lost three regular season games by a total of six points. With lots of talent and experience coming back on both offense and defense, the Aggies should have a big year this year. Stephen McGee did a great job at quarterback last year and should be a big contributor this year.

-The North has been pretty far behind the South in recent years, but both Missouri and Nebraska look pretty strong. Nebraska advanced to the Big Twelve title game last year, and could get back there again this year. There are some question marks about this team, though, and although they are a shoe-in to make a bowl game, I’d have to say they’re an outside shot at making the BCS.

-Missouri really struggled down the stretch last season, but they return what should be one of the conference’s better offenses. Chase Daniel did a great job at quarterback this year, and they should have a very strong passing game again this year. They have Nebraska at home on October 6th, which is a game that should impact the Big Twelve North title.

-Oklahoma State is another team to keep an eye on. If they were in the North I’d say they were contenders to make the title game. They are still very good, but I don’t see them winning the South. Nevertheless, they have a very talented and experience offense coming back. They were inconsistent last year, but should be better now that they’re older.



BIG EAST

-Generally speaking, as far as the BCS is concerned, one of the things this league does to hurt itself is that they collectively schedule too many games against nondiv1 teams. That may not make THAT much of a difference in the polls, but if they are trying to overtake teams from other leagues in the BCS Standings, beating up on the 1AAs of the world isn’t going to impress the voters that much. At least it wouldn’t impress me if I were a voter. It’s a much bigger factor in the computers, though. In looking at some of these schedules, one has to wonder if they ever considered the impact that playing 1AA teams has on the computers. Generally speaking, the biggest factors in to the computers are how many games a team wins against other div1a teams, and how many games their opponents win against other div1a teams. 1AA teams aren’t going to be winning ANY games against 1A teams, so it KILLS a school’s computer ranking. West Virginia and Syracuse are the only teams not playing a 1AA opponent. That drags the ENTIRE conference down when it comes to the computers. That is six less 1A wins that won’t be factored in, and that is a huge dead weight when it comes to trying to get a team to the BCS Title game.

-West Virginia is solid. They are a national championship contender, but they’ll need some help because if they go undefeated, they’ll most likely have to hope that there aren’t two others ahead of them. They do have some tough games at Rutgers and at South Florida. They also have Louisville coming into their place on November 8th. They have a very explosive backfield and can pretty much rack up points on just about anyone.

-Louisville is another very strong team. Their schedule is back weighted and they don’t face a real top 25 caliber team until they play Utah on October 5th. After that, they have a tough game on the road against a much improved Cincinnati team. They underwent a coaching change, but still have a very explosive offense that can score on anyone. They are a little inexperienced on the defensive end, and that could be the difference between finishing first or third in the league.

-Rutgers once again appears to be tough as nails. They have West Virginia at home, which his a huge advantage to them. Their final game of the season is at Louisville in a game that could determine the Big East Title. As far as making the BCS Title game, they have two deadweights on their schedule. One is Norfolk State, who is not a 1A team, and the other is Buffalo, who could very possibly end the season without any 1A wins. Nevertheless, they are a legit contender for a BCS Bowl with a lot of talent coming back on both sides of the ball. They have a very strong running back in Ray Rice, who could end up making some noise in the Heisman race before the end of the year.

-Other teams to watch are Pittsburgh, Cincinnati and South Florida. I wouldn’t go so far to say that they are conference title contenders, but they are definitely good enough to beat anyone in this league on any given night. Cincinnati’s defense is awesome. Their offensive line is also more experienced, and physically stronger than it has been the past few years. Their first five games are very winnable, so they could go into Rutgers 5-0 on October 6th. Pittsburgh has recruited very well, and a lot of those players that they brought in will get their chance to play contributing roles this year. South Florida won four of their last five last season with the only loss coming to Louisville, and returns a ton of talent on both sides of the ball.


BIG TEN

-Michigan appears to be the best team in the conference. They also appear to be legitimate national championship contenders. Mike Hart is an outstanding running back. Chad Henne is an outstanding quarterback. They are about as solid as they’ve ever been on offense. They are a little inexperienced on the defensive side of things, and that could be the difference in them being a national championship caliber team and a solid BCS Bowl caliber team. They also open the season against Appalachian State, which will have a negative impact on their BCS Computer rankings if we have three or more unbeatens at the end of the year. Their toughest game of the season, by far, appears to be at Wisconsin.

-Wisconsin is INSANELY good this year. I think it’s safe to say that they are national title contenders as well. Four of their first five games are at home, and then they go to Illinois after that. I don’t see a team in their first six games that really equals them, so they should go into Penn State with a 6-0 record. That will likely be their toughest test. I believe Michigan is better than Penn State, but it’s never easy to win on the road against the Nittany Lions.

-Iowa is interesting this year. They have a very tough game at Wisconsin, which they aren’t likely to win, but they don’t face Michigan or Ohio State. They also hold the tiebreaker over both of those teams because both Michigan and Ohio State have won Big Ten titles more recently than Iowa has. They do not, however, have any sort of tiebreaker when it comes to the BCS Title game. They aren’t likely to get to the title game, but they could finish very high in the Big Ten Standings this season. They were disappointing down the stretch last year, but they return a ton of talent on both sides of the ball.

-A team I’m looking forward to watching this year is Illinois. They aren’t expected to do much, but they finally have some beef and experience on the offensive and defensive lines, and that can make a world of difference. I think a lot of people get used to watching the skill positions, and don’t always realize how important it is to have experienced, strong linemen. They also have a very strong running game, and could win more games than most expect. They open the season with bitter rival Missouri, and can really give themselves a boost if they can pull off that upset.

-Can Indiana finally make it back to a bowl?? This may be the year. They have a lot coming back on both sides of the ball, and have a very weak out of conference schedule. They should win all four OOC games no problem. If they can win two conference games, that will get them to 6-6, and should be enough to get them into some sort of bowl. Unfortunately for the Hoosiers, former head coach Terry Hoeppner passed away in the off-season after fighting brain cancer for two years. He did a lot at his short time at Indiana to build the Hoosiers into a bowl caliber team.

-I love how the Big Ten only releases the top three teams from their Media Day Poll. I guess they just don’t want anyone to come in last, so if you’re not in the top three, you’re tied for fourth.


ACC

-Wake Forest won the league last year, and should be in the hunt to win the Atlantic Division this year. Their defense struggled at times last season, but they did a good job of creating turnovers. They lose a lot of experience in the secondary, but they should still be able to hold their own. On offense, they return QB Riley Skinner, who had a big year last year and should be a contributor again. They also appear to be strong at running back. They open against Boston College, which is a huge game this season because both teams will challenge for the Atlantic Title.

-Boston College should have a very strong defense this year, and an experienced offense to go along with it. They won ten games last year, and return most of their players on both sides of the ball. The first game of the season is one of their biggest, because they’re taking on Wake Forest, who is also in the hunt to win the league.

-Florida State is also a team to watch for in the Atlantic, but they were just 7-6 a year ago and from my vantage point appear to be behind both Wake and BC. They really struggled on offense last year, and it’s hard to say whether they’ll be any better this season. They appear to be solid on defense, but they need more than just defense if they want to win the conference.

-Virginia Tech appears to be the hands down favorite to win the Coastal Division, as well as the favorite to win the league. They will begin the season ranked in the top ten and have a monster game their second week against LSU, which has major BCS implications. If they can win that, they will instantly be considered national championship contenders.

-Georgia Tech is right behind them. They lost their last three games last season, but each of those losses was only by a field goal. They return a lot of talent on both sides of the ball, and have very strong offensive and defensive lines. They are a little inexperienced at the QB position, and that could affect them early on, but they should be a strong team by the end of the year.

-Maryland, Clemson and Miami, FL are also likely to make bowl games, especially since the league has eight bowl tie-ins. It’s hard to imagine any of those teams competing for the BCS, though.


INDEPENDENTS

-Notre Dame isn’t getting a whole lot of credit in the preseason, but I think they could definitely surprise some people. The last time Notre Dame began the season unranked they ended up going to a BCS Bowl. The Irish are very inexperienced, but they are also very talented. Many of the players that Charlie Weiss recruited as freshmen are now in a position to where they’ll see a lot of minutes. We haven’t seen these guys play all that much, but that doesn’t mean that they won’t turn out to be big time players. Like most years, the Irish are playing a killer schedule. They open up against nationally ranked Georgia Tech, and then go on the road to face Penn State and Michigan. They could easily open the season 0-3. It gets easier in the latter half of the season, and I’d be shocked if the Irish don’t make a bowl even if they do get off to a sluggish start.

-Navy returns most of its offense, including quarterback Kaipo-Noa Kaheaku-Enhada, who has to have the longest name in all of college football. The Midshipmen are lacking in experience on the defensive side of the ball, but they do have a fairly weak overall schedule. Pittsburgh, Wake Forest and Notre Dame won’t be easy opponents, but they have more than enough talent to win six games and make it to the Poinsettia Bowl.


WAC

-Hawai’i looks to be a shoe-in for the BCS, but that has more to do with their schedule than it does with how good they are. The Warriors are playing two games against div1aa teams (Northern Colorado and Charleston Southern). Only one of those games will count toward bowl eligibility, but that is a moot point. Their toughest opponent is Boise State, who they will face at home. After Boise, the next toughest team appears to be Washington, which is also at home. Despite the weak schedule, an undefeated season should move Hawai’i into the BCS top 12 and win them a conference championship, which would qualify them for a BCS bowl. The Rainbows have an explosive offense, which is led by Heisman candidate Colt Brennan.

-Boise State is getting some preseason kudos as well, but much of that is probably due to their big season last year rather than their prospects for this year. Ian Johnson returns at running back, so the Broncos are pretty solid at that position. The Quarterback position is still a toss-up, and since this team loves to throw the ball that could impact their play. They don’t really appear to face any strong teams out of conference, so they should end up with a big record, and that should result in a big ranking. Their biggest challenges look to be a home game against Southern Mississippi, and a road game at Washington. The showdown with Hawaii should be exciting.

-We have sort of a drop-off after that. Fresno State has a talented team, but they underachieved in a big way last year, so the jury is still out on them. Not many people are predicting the Bulldogs to be all that good, but they are talented and could end up surprising some people. San Jose State is a team that has really built themselves up, but they don’t appear to be in the same league as Hawaii. Still, the Spartans are strong on offense, and have a very good quarterback in Adam Tafralis. They also have a favorable out of conference schedule.

-Other than Fresno State, no one is really stepping up to the plate and playing any big opponents out of conference. As far as running the table and making a BCS Bowl, that could be beneficial. It certainly isn’t something that many BCS Conference teams are not guilty of. However, if they want to establish themselves as legitimate, they need to play a tougher schedule out of conference.



MOUNTAIN WEST

-The top of this league is very strong, and we may see one of these teams playing in a BCS Bowl.

-TCU will begin the season ranked in both polls. They have an excellent defense are the favorites to win the league after going 11-2 last year and ending the season on a nine game win streak. If TCU has any weaknesses, it is on the offensive end. They don’t appear to be all that strong at the quarterback and wide receiver positions, but they have a very strong running game to go along with their defense. They open the season against Baylor, and the go on the road to face Texas in Week Two. That could be a tremendous game. If they can pull off the upset, they could be on their way to the BCS.

-BYU is right behind TCU. They upset the Horned Frogs last year and won the MWC Title. BYU is very inexperienced at the quarterback position and that will likely be their biggest obstacle considering they are such a pass-oriented team. They appear to be talented, but experience is an issue.

-Utah is another team to watch. They finished the season very strong going 4-2 in their last six games, but losing both games by a combined total of five points. They return a lot on both sides of the ball and have a favorable schedule. Out of conference, their biggest game appears to be at Louisville. This is also a team that could challenge TCU for the league title. That should be a great game considering how strong TCU’s defense is and how good Utah’s offense is.


CONFERENCE USA

-Lots of new coaches around the league. Tulane, Tulsa, Rice and UAB all underwent coaching changes.

-Southern Miss and Houston faced each other in last season’s championship game, and according to the preseason poll they are the favorites to do so again. Southern Miss appears to be strong on defense and they are a team to watch in the league this year. They have big games against Tennessee and Boise State, but I don’t know if they’re good enough to pull a big upset.

-Houston has an explosive offense, but will have to deal with the loss of QB Kevin Kolb. They finished the season very strong last year, but their OL looks to be a little inexperienced, so it’s hard to say how well they’ll do right out of the gate.

-Tulsa is a team that got off to a great start last season, but struggled down the stretch. In addition to losing their head coach, they lost most of their offense. They do have a strong running game and a very good quarterback, but their wide receivers and offensive line are inexperienced.



MID-AMERICAN

-Western Michigan and Central Michigan appear to be the two best teams in the West, and Ohio and Kent State should challenge each other for the East. I wouldn’t be surprised if all four teams made bowl games. Three teams from this league are guaranteed spots, but it’s very possible that they’ll get a fourth.

-Central Michigan underwent a coaching change, so it will be interesting to see how that impacts their style. Last year they were very productive on offense with QB Dan Lefervour completing 64% of his passes. He should be a big impact this season as well.

-Western Michigan has a strong running game, but is going through a transition at the quarterback position and that could impact their play. They are going to be tested right out of the gate as they open their season at West Virginia.

-In the East, one has to be impressed with the progress Ohio has made. They weren’t only one of the worst teams in the league a few years ago, they were one of the worst teams in the country. Head Coach Frank Zolich has done an amazing job elevating the level of the team. They went to the GMAC Bowl a year ago, and could be going back to another bowl this year. They have an inexperienced backfield despite the return of RB Kalvin McCrae. They do have a favorable schedule, though, and that’s important as far as making a bowl. Other than Virginia Tech, their out of conference schedule looks pretty manageable.

-Kent State really struggled down the stretch last season, but they are definitely an up and coming program. They return most of their starters, and have a strong running game. Experience on the offensive and defensive line could translate into more wins for them this season. They have a big game at Kentucky their second game of the year, who is also a team on the rise. They also face Iowa State and Ohio State on the road, so it’s going to be a rough ride out of conference.


SUN BELT

-Troy appears to be the near unanimous pick to win the league, and they are my pick as well. They were 6-1 in the league last year with their only loss coming to Arkansas State. Middle Tennessee tied them in the conference standings, but lost 21-20 head to head with Troy, so Troy won the league and the right to go to the New Orleans Bowl. They lost a lot of their offensive line from last year and that could be a problem, but most of their defense is back. A big date on Troy’s schedule is September 14th, when Oklahoma State visits their campus.

-Middle Tennessee and Arkansas State could challenge for the league title as well. Middle Tennessee faces Troy on the final game of the season, which could have huge implications.

-Even the better teams in this conference struggle to win games out of conference. It’s almost a guarantee that this league will collectively win the fewest amount of OOC games. However, they did send two teams to bowls last year, and could get two in again. They only have one bowl tie-in, but if a second team can win seven games they can be selected as an at-large.