http://drevilguapo.blogspot.com/2007/08/...-game.html



Wednesday, August 08, 2007
The Great Expansion Game
There has been a lot of discussion over the last several years that the Big East would eventually expand, whether that meant splitting from the basketball-only schools to form a new conference or adding a ninth school for football only. That buzz has not subsided and speculation still runs rampant to this day on when it will happen and who will be involved.

To further the expansion rumors, the Big Ten commissioner recently stated that the newly formed Big Ten Network has pressed him on the issue of adding a 12th member. With rumors that the potential targets are Missouri, Rutgers, Syracuse, and Pittsburgh, the rumor mill surrounding the Big East continues to be stirred.

In the years since the last big shuffle, there has also been mention from the Mountain West conference that they would eventually evaluate the possibility of expanding to twelve teams. The MAC, at 14 teams prior to losing Marshall and UCF the last go-around, has swelled back to 13 teams after adding Temple this past off-season.

So much is potentially on the line in this next round of conference realignment. Indeed, a certain level of finality is likely. At present, there are only 7 spots still available among the BCS leagues (assuming that no league would go beyond 12, the minimum required to stage a championship game). The Big East holds 4 of those open spots, the Big Ten one, and the other 2 belong to the Pac-10. So, the next question is, will the Pac-10 become the Pac-12?

In looking at the possibility of the Pac-10 expanding to twelve teams, there are only a few viable candidates. Following the current model of the conference, they would look to control the states they occupy. Furthermore, they seemingly place a high value upon geographical identity, academic standards, and fan support. That being said, the obvious choices would be BYU and Utah. Yet, if the Pac-10 desires BYU, they would be well served to be proactive, as the Cougars would also likely be a target of the Big XII should Missouri slip to the Big Ten.

With all of this out there, I thought it might be fun to play the ultimate expansion game. Note that this is just for fun, but it does represent what I think would happen should everything come to a head all at once.

Here is the expansion timeline, as I see it (let's assume the year is 2009) ...

(1) The Big Ten conference, under pressure from the Big Ten Network, decides to add a 12th team. According to the league's bylaws, only AAU institutions in current or bordering states are eligible for addition. Given the network's desire to expand the league's sphere of influence, a school from an adjacent state will be taken if Notre Dame is not an option. Notre Dame preempts any speculation, and openly declares that they will remain an independent in football. Ultimately, the Big Ten decides to add Missouri.

(2) With the loss of Missouri, the Big XII drops to 11 teams and is in search of a replacement. Arkansas (SEC) is approached due to their past membership in the Southwest Conference with Texas, Texas A&M, Baylor, and Texas Tech. Arkansas, however, passes on this offer and decides to stay in the SEC. BYU (Mountain West), a strong program with great history, a top-thirty fan base, and high academic standards is also approached due to their proximity to Colorado.

(3) The Pac-10 responds to the Big XII's approach of BYU, by issuing a formal invitation to join the league. Utah (Mountain West) is then given a conditional invitation to the league, with their admittance tied to BYU's decision. University of Utah officials and several Utah state legislators help to convince BYU to accept the Pac-10's offer. Utah then follows suit, and the Pac-12 is formed. The Mountain West, after losing two members, is now down to 7 and the Big XII is still in search of a 12th member.

(4) With the Big XII and Mountain West conferences in search of new members, and with Conference USA a likely hotbed of targeted institutions, the Big East decides to act swiftly. Instead of adding a ninth school for football only, the league splits in half with the eight football playing members forming a new league with a plan to expand to 12 immediately. Army and Navy are the first targets of the Big East, and pass on the invitation, expressing strong desires to remain independent. Conference USA schools East Carolina, UCF, Marshall, and Memphis are then invited all at once. Each of those four institutions accept the offer, and the new Big East is formed. Conference USA has now been reduced to 8 schools, while the Mountain West sits at 7, and the Big XII at 11.

(5) A power struggle ensues between the Mountain West and Conference USA as each conference approaches members of the other league. Notably, the MWC pursues UTEP and Tulsa while C-USA looks to regain TCU. All the while, the Mountain West officials are still debating a 9-team model versus as 12-team model. In addition to UTEP and Tulsa, Boise State, Fresno State, and Hawaii are being bandied about as potential targets of the Mountain West.

(6) To further complicate the future plans of the Mountain West conference, the Big XII officials vote to extend an offer to Boise State with several conditions that must be met, including the expansion of their football stadium. Boise State agrees to these terms and joins the Big XII North division, thus concluding the Big XII's search for Missouri's replacement. The WAC, as a result, is dropped to 8 teams. C-USA remains at 8 and the Mountain West at 7.

(7) The Western Athletic Conference (WAC) approaches the Mountain West regarding the possibility of rejoining the leagues into a 15-team conference with the possibility of adding one more. The Mountain West rejects the idea and publicly states their desire to add two more schools to replace Utah and BYU, staying with a 9-team model and thus abandoning the idea of a 12-team league.

(8) The Mountain West officially invites UTEP (C-USA) and Fresno State (WAC) to join the league, acting as replacements for BYU and Utah, and bringing the league back to 9 schools. Fresno State is eager to leave the WAC after Boise State's exit, and accepts the invitation. UTEP, seeing the advantages of a better geographical and institutional fit, also accepts the invitation. The WAC and Conference USA are both reduced to 7 teams as a result.

(9) Conference USA, after losing five members, commits to rebuilding the 12-team model with a strong footprint throughout the South. Invitations are issued to Troy, MTSU, FAU, and FIU of the Sun Belt and Louisiana Tech of the WAC, all of which accept. Louisiana Tech replaces UTEP in the West division. MTSU, Troy, FIU, and FAU replace East Carolina, Marshall, UCF, and Memphis from the East. As a result of C-USA's new lineup, the Sun Belt is reduced to 5 members, and the WAC dwindles to 6.

(10) The MAC, uncomfortable with the 13-member setup, moves to invite Western Kentucky, new to the FBS and the Sun Belt. WKU, who has stated publicly their desire to leave the Sun Belt, accepts the invitation and balances out the MAC at 14 schools. As a result, the Sun Belt drops to 4 members (North Texas, UL Monroe, UL Lafayette, and Arkansas State) and is forced to disband.

(11) In the final transaction of the realignment process, the 6-member WAC (Hawaii, San Jose State, Nevada, Idaho, Utah State, and New Mexico State) invites the four former members of the Sun Belt to create a 10-member conference.

In the end, only the ACC and SEC remained untouched. The Big Ten, the Big East, the Pac-10, and the MAC all expanded. Meanwhile, the Big XII, Mountain West, Conference USA, and WAC all added institutions to offset losses. The Sun Belt conference ultimately dissolved as a casualty to the realignment process. In all, 20 schools changed conference affiliation.

The final conference affiliations are detailed below. New league members are highlighted.

The ACC (12 members; added 0, lost 0)
Coastal: Virginia Tech, Georgia Tech, Virginia, Miami, North Carolina, Duke
Atlantic: Florida State, Clemson, Maryland, Boston College, NC State, Wake Forest
The SEC (12 members; added 0, lost 0)
East: Florida, Georgia, South Carolina, Tennessee, Vanderbilt, Kentucky
West: Alabama, Auburn, Ole Miss, Mississippi State, Arkansas, LSU
The Big Ten (12 members; added 1, lost 0)
East: Penn State, Ohio State, Michigan, Michigan State, Indiana, Purdue

West: Wisconsin, Illinois, Northwestern, Minnesota, Iowa, Missouri
The Pac-12 (12 members; added 2, lost 0)
North: Washington, Washington State, Oregon, Oregon State, California, Stanford
South: USC, UCLA, Arizona, Arizona State, Utah, BYU
The Big XII (12 members; added 1, lost 1)
North: Nebraska, Colorado, Iowa State, Kansas, Kansas State, Boise State
South: Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Texas, Texas A&M, Baylor, Texas Tech
The Big East (12 members; added 4, lost 0)
North: West Virginia, Pittsburgh, Rutgers, Connecticut, Syracuse, Cincinnati

South: USF, UCF, East Carolina, Louisville, Marshall, Memphis

The Mountain West (9 members; added 2, lost 2)
San Diego State, UNLV, New Mexico, Wyoming, Air Force, Colorado State, TCU, Fresno State, UTEP
Conference USA (12 members; added 5, lost 5)
East: Southern Miss, UAB, MTSU, Troy, FIU, FAU
West: Tulsa, Houston, SMU, Rice, Tulane, Louisiana Tech
The WAC (10 members; added 4, lost 3)
Hawaii, San Jose State, New Mexico State, Idaho, Utah State, Nevada, Arkansas State, North Texas, UL Monroe, UL Lafayette
The MAC (14 members; added 1, lost 0)
East: Kent State, Miami (OH), Bowling Green, Ohio, Akron, Temple, Buffalo
West: Toledo, Western Michigan, Central Michigan, Eastern Michigan, Northern Illinois, Ball State, Western Kentucky
Independents (3 members; added 0, lost 0)
Notre Dame, Army, Navy

I don't see us or the Pac 10 feeling the pressure to expand to 12. I'm sure we would feel pressure to expand to 10 and UCF and Memphis I'd be willing to bet are those schools. There is now way we would ever invite Marshall. If we were that serious about going to 12 East Carolina and I'd bet Temple would be the schools we'd go after. I'd much rather have a building Temple under Golden than Marshall. I also think that the Big 12 would jettison Baylor and add Utah and BYU to remain at 12 and have zero risk at losing the BCS bid.

Well written. Sounds a bit like armageddon. But having those 6 leagues at 12 teams adds a lot of symmetry and it would prevent some leagues from whining and moaning about how they split their checks 12 ways and bring more to the table than leagues that split their checks 8 ways, or the whine about how tough the championship game is on your second bid. This way everyone faces the same hurdles.

Boise State has maxed out their potential, they will never be on the same level as Nebraska and Colorado.

I think the NCAA should mandate a 12 team playoff system with 8 conference champions and 4 at large schools.

Auto-bid conferences should be reduced to 10 teams with 8 conference games, two out-of-conference games, and the max number of playoff games through December would be 4, making a max total of 14 games for only two schools.

Prestigious bowls would be used for the playoffs and sub-par bowls would be used for teams who didn't qualify but had good records.

The only hard part would be coming to a conclusion for realignment, but this is the most viable way we could see Penn State come home.

The Pac 10 is not going to add Utah and BYU. It is not going to 12 schools. Why should it?

The Big East is not going to add four teams from C-USA to become a 12 team conference.

Is the Big 10 going to 12 teams? I will believe it when I see it.

Marshall will never happen.

This is kinda crazy stuff, i could see missouri going to the big 10, than the big 12 sniff around arkansas but get turned down and settle for BYU or utah. If the pac 10 made a move it would be to invite colorado not byu at that time. For byu and utah to get into the pac 10, i think the big 10 would need expand to 12 with another eastern team. At that point, the pac 10 might but probably not, want to join the 12 team party. Also, i think byu might need to get a revelation about playing on sunday's, probably not a deal killer though, + the pac 10 would need to come to terms with byu academic mission. I think its somewhat possible it could play out like this but the odds are way against it.

Crack-assisted view of expansion it may be, but in this blogger's defense, he did say "JUST FOR FUN."

L-yes Wrote:Marshall will never happen.

I agree--too close to WVU and Cinci. If we ever went down that path I would look at USM first. Rebuilding the Metro LOL

I think the BE goes to UCF, Maryland and BC before looking at Memphis.
Why would anyone believe the ACC can maintain a bigger payout than the BE? They share a market with the SEC. I say in a year or two the BE is stronger and smarter than it was a few years ago. We don't scramble for left-overs, we target the main course and raiding the ACC is not something we'd be criticized for.
BC and Maryland tightens us up in the north east. UCF and USF keeps us well entrenched in the talent rich state and guarentees all our football teams at least one trip to Florida to escape the cold winters of the north.
The ACC will grab Memphis. I'm not knocking the school, Memphis is a great program, but they are in Tenn. The BE shouldn't add anyone from Tenn. or North Carolina.

P.S. if the BE splits, the FB schools should play the tournament with the BB schools and keep it in MSG. Maybe the top 8 schools from each conference (BB and FB) go to MSG to see who is really king of the east. This keeps the Georgetown/ Syracuse rivalry going. The remaining eight schools from both conferences who don't get an invite can have a losers tournament somewhere- whereever. But when you think of wht the BE will have in BB between the two conferences- that whole tournament will be bigger than the NCAAs- and it's basketball in NYC. cha-ching.

Yes the martians have landed in DC.

frogman Wrote:Why would anyone believe the ACC can maintain a bigger payout than the BE?

In part because they already do, and perhaps in part because of lack of faith in the current leadership. There's also the national perception that many of the football schools are not a national presence save for when they succeed. I know USF is a large school but how many of their grads move throughout the country the same way as those for OSU, Texas, etc?

Quote:I say in a year or two the BE is stronger and smarter than it was a few years ago. We don't scramble for left-overs, we target the main course and raiding the ACC is not something we'd be criticized for.

a) Don't say "We don't" for something you arguably already have done. Louisville is/was hardly a leftover, but that expansion was hardly something as progressive as you're implying.
b) As for the criticism, don't be too sure. The ACC was rapped for how it was done, so in order for the BE to avoid that they'd have to tip their hand off much sooner and be that much more transparent. To say nothing of the "2 wrongs don't make a right" notion. Such a move by the BE would justify those critics of the 2003 realignment as evidence of too much greed in college sports.

Quote:The ACC will grab Memphis.

Let me assure you right now this will never happen for reasons of geography and institutional make-up. The ACC will sooner regress from 12 members or invite Vandy or Tulane.

And no, Frogman, I'm not intentionally following you around today!

brista21 Wrote:I don't see us or the Pac 10 feeling the pressure to expand to 12. I'm sure we would feel pressure to expand to 10 and UCF and Memphis I'd be willing to bet are those schools. There is now way we would ever invite Marshall. If we were that serious about going to 12 East Carolina and I'd bet Temple would be the schools we'd go after. I'd much rather have a building Temple under Golden than Marshall. I also think that the Big 12 would jettison Baylor and add Utah and BYU to remain at 12 and have zero risk at losing the BCS bid.

I'll second everything brista21 just said

As for the article, I agreed with him for the most part until the Pac 10 added anyone and the Big XII added Boise State. Interesting scenario, but highly unlikely.

Interesting reasoning, but I just don't see Arkanasas turning down a chance to go to the Big 12.

esayem Wrote:Boise State has maxed out their potential, they will never be on the same level as Nebraska and Colorado.

I think the NCAA should mandate a 12 team playoff system with 8 conference champions and 4 at large schools.

Auto-bid conferences should be reduced to 10 teams with 8 conference games, two out-of-conference games, and the max number of playoff games through December would be 4, making a max total of 14 games for only two schools.

Prestigious bowls would be used for the playoffs and sub-par bowls would be used for teams who didn't qualify but had good records.

The only hard part would be coming to a conclusion for realignment, but this is the most viable way we could see Penn State come home.

The NCAA can't mandate squat. The Rose Bowl would never go for it anyway. End of that theory.

South Tampa Knight Wrote:Interesting reasoning, but I just don't see Arkanasas turning down a chance to go to the Big 12.

Arkansas leaving the SEC, one of the 2 wealthiest and most prestigious, and stable conferences around and going to the Big 12 which is far less stable and wealthy, would be very risky, and I can certainly see them turning down such an opportunity. In fact, I think they would turn it down. Why would it be a big deal to turn down a chance to play in the Big 12, when you already play in the SEC?

I agree w/ him that Arkansas would never leave the SEC for the Big 12, but some of the stuff is really very very far-fetched, especially Boise State to the Big 12, and of course Marshall to the Big East. Zero chance of that ever happening, I have no idea why it even gets mentioned in expansion talk. It's simply ludicrous.

Well, written though some of the teams might vary a little on where they wind up.

Big East would add Ohio and Miami-Oh over Marshall.

HiddenDragon Wrote:

esayem Wrote:Boise State has maxed out their potential, they will never be on the same level as Nebraska and Colorado.

I think the NCAA should mandate a 12 team playoff system with 8 conference champions and 4 at large schools.

Auto-bid conferences should be reduced to 10 teams with 8 conference games, two out-of-conference games, and the max number of playoff games through December would be 4, making a max total of 14 games for only two schools.

Prestigious bowls would be used for the playoffs and sub-par bowls would be used for teams who didn't qualify but had good records.

The only hard part would be coming to a conclusion for realignment, but this is the most viable way we could see Penn State come home.

The NCAA can't mandate squat. The Rose Bowl would never go for it anyway. End of that theory.

HAHA. That guy said the NCAA, who makes up all the rules, can't mandate squat. Man that made my day.

Last time I checked the Rose Bowl didn't run the National Collegiate Athletic Association. End of that theory.