EastStang Wrote:In today's Op-ed page on the Washington Post print edition (I could not find it on the internet), Henry Kissinger wrote one of the most cogent reasons why we can't just leave Iraq. He espoused a domino theory of sorts. Iran is trying to dominate Iraq. There is sectarian strife between three groups, the Kurds, the Sunni's and the Shiites. If we just leave, then the Kurds will want to form their own country which will get Turkey involved. The Shiites in Iran will try and take Iraq so that they can then branch out of Lebanon, Palestine, Jordan, Syria, Saudi Arabia and the other gulf kingdoms to re-establish their goal of a Persian Empire. His view is that we can't leave, but we can try and get all the groups together to say, if this doesn't work out, then you guys will be fighting each other without our intervention. In other words, Saudi Arabia, are you prepared to go to war with Iran? Turkey, are you prepared for war with the Kurds? Russia are you prepared for Shiites to act up in your country? Iran, do you really think you can conquor the entire middle east? In other words, his call is to get everyone together to talk. If Iran says they won't play nice and will keep sitrring things up, then at least we know that our war is with them and not with other Arab and Kurdish folks and can focus on isolating them and then we can say with a straight face, look we tried to get you guys to play nicely together.
Some interesting stuff here.
What strikes me is that none of this is mutually exclusive.
In fact Obama's been talking about doing exactly that. You announce you're withdrawing troops in one year's time. You convene the interested parties, internal and external, and you start the horse-trading and consensus building. None of these parties has an interest in seeing Iraq go to hell in a hand basket, but if all parties pursue their own interests independently and react to one another ad-hoc, it will turn out that way. Its a typical security dilemma. But you have to announce that we are going to prepare for withdrawing troops, because only that realization that the status-quo is coming to an end is going to provide the impetus for these parties to get to work seriously on what comes next.
Now, secondly, its odd that this comes from Kissinger. He's essentially outlining all the reasons why this war was a bad idea from day one. Of course, he supported it initially, not taking into account these "unintended consequences" that he is now citing for why we can't leave.
Quote:We believe that men long to be free, but I am not sure that is the case in the middle east.
And that is why this war was a mistake, and what is at the heart of the neo-conservative fallacy. You can't make people want to be free when there is no history of that word having any meaning in the region. And you certainly can't do that through a 5 year (and counting) military occupation.
Its hard to explain the feelings that occupations engender if you've not experienced one. Now, I have not either, but I've only recently seen something very close. I was just in Kashmir last month, in the mostly Buddhist part near the Chinese border. Now, this part of Kashmir (called Ladakh) is not usually an ethnic conflict zone, but due to the closeness of China and Pakistan (the Pakistanis have provoked incidents nearby at Kargil) and the fact that 14,000 feet carries a lot of strategic importance, the place is FULL of military cantonments. There are troops and military installations all over the place, and they represent a disproportionate share of the population of Ladakh. The Ladakhis are buddhist and mostly Tibetan ethnically. The soldiers are almost entirely (if not actually entirely) Hindus and Sikhs from Punjab, and various states in the Hindi belt -- i.e., they look nothing like Ladakhis, they don't speak the language, and generally have nothing in common with them culturally.
Well, despite the fact that Ladakhis are pretty well-off by Indian standards due to trade with China and tourism, they aren't real warm to the idea of having no autonomy. They don't want independence, and they aren't attacking troops, but there is no love lost either, and they are desperate for what the Indians call Union Territory status. There's real resentment there. And objectively there's no reason for there to be -- other than military troops that don't come from their communities essentially running their villages which have been around for a thousand years. While they aren't trying to leave India -- they really dislike and mistrust Indian people generally. So its a subtle effect, but you can see how it works on a larger and more extreme scale like Iraq. Occupations engender resentment, and its hard to "sell freedom" under those conditions.