Wilkie01 Wrote:When we split, I would love to add Memphis, East Carolina, Central Florida and Southern Miss.

East Carolina
Central Florida
Southern Miss

Shannon Panther Wrote:Orlando is a top 20 media market, would give USF a travel partner, and is investing heavily in their athletic programs. Other than the Daunte Culpepper period they have very little athletic achievement. They are a borderline tier 3/4 academic school. Large student body bodes well for their support potential. Brings fertile recruiting area. Ability to bring bowl doubtful. Good relationship with Pitt, stiffed WVU at the last minute on a game.

Good fair analysis on all 3 schools Shannon.

FYI (maybe you and others did not know) but did you kow that UCF's new AD (Keith Tribble) is the former CEO of the BCS Orange Bowl for 13 years?

Care to guess what event Keith Tribble would like UCF to host come Bowl Season time?

The previous AD for UCF made a pre-construction pledge to some neighborhoods during UCF's new stadium process about trying to limit events at the Stadium for the first few years.

Let's put it this way...that's probably out the window.

However, UCF will not push for a Bowl Game for at least another year...but as the ACC/Big East/CUSA are all looking for more favorable, WARM, Bowl locations in FLORIDA...you can bet this will be one of his top projects in another 18-24 months.

Now...maybe this bowl game ends up being ACC/CUSA...or maybe ACC/Big East....or even another Big East/CUSA game...but chances are...SOME bowl game will probably be taking place at UCF's new on-campus stadium in a few years as if UCF joins a conference in future years with ANOTHER team located in FLA as well...that only helps this scenario come to be.

PS. Now that both of Florida Citrus Sports' bowl games at the Citrus Bowl are now AFTER Christmas...a pre-Christmas Bowl Slot (normally played in smaller/less crowded stadiums because of the date...i.e. harder to travel BEFORE the holiday than afterwards when most are on vacation) for a 45,000 seat stadium would be perfect (i.e. a crowd of 30,000-40,000 would look fine for TV).

omnicarrier Wrote:

KnightLight Wrote:

South Tampa Knight Wrote:Something to consider and this is just a theory, but if schools like UL and WVU are worried they may create another Miami by getting USF into the Big East a Rich Rod said a while back, then the thought of adding UCF would possibly dilute USF.

Just a thought.

USF won't be diluted...just like how UF, FSU, and Miami do not dilute each other...as those programs have won NINE National Championships (played for 6-8 others) over the past 25 years.

As the population in FLA and popularity of HS Football in FLA continue to grow....the state will continue to "pump" out plenty of HS Seniors every year for all (including most of the BCS Teams East of the Mississippi that also sign FLA HS players).

Is Florida any greater at producing football talent than California or Texas?

How many good-to-great programs do those states have over a period of a decade? I suppose we'll disagree on this, but from my perspective it's 4. For California, it's 4 from the following grouping - USC, UCLA, Cal, Stanford, and Fresno State. For Texas, it's currently 4 with Texas, Texas A&M, TCU, and Texas Tech.

I can't recall in the 80s, 90s, or so far in the current 00 decade any of those three states having more than 4 programs be good-to-great in the same decade.

At the moment, in Florida, it is only 3 - Florida, FSU, and Miami. USF and UCF are trying to become the fourth. Can UCF become that 4th? Sure. But I don't think Florida or FSU are going anywhere since the culture of football is too strong at either of those schools.

So, if 4 is indeed the max (as I believe it is), that means that if UCF were to join the Top 4 in Florida, it would likely be at the expense of either Miami or USF.

I'd hate for it to be at the expense of the Bulls, which is why, I personally, am against the addition of UCF (although I do concede that in terms of investment in their athletic programs they may have an edge up over other C-USA schools) at this time.

Cheers,
Neil

Fair analysis omni.

However, unlike most of the other schools outside of those Top 4 mentioned...none of them are in a large, 3.5 Million plus metro area like USF, which has a population almost as the entire state of Kentucky...except that Football is KING in HS at most FLA HS.

I'm sure USF will be more worried about the other 8, 9, 10, or 11 teams in their future conference(s) vs just one school (i.e. be it UCF or others) in the future.

Most successful schools/programs earn their accolades by not being afraid of competition.

omnicarrier Wrote:

chess Wrote:

Quote:As for VT or SU, in the long run, it didn't really matter to the ACC. With VT they got a current near-elite but no new market for TV, with Syracuse they got a recent near-elite with national name recognition (at that point starting to decline) and new markets to offset the declining football program part.

I think it did matter. Why? Boston College is on an "island". Having Syracuse would have meant a school closer to BC. Syracuse may not hold the New York market but it is a great school that commands attention in the area (as much as any school can in the northeast).

Right. In the context of having BC an island unto themselves ACC expansion missed the boat. And the same could be said about the Big East choosing USF. But the article isn't referencing that type of issue. It is only focusing on expansion to 12 being good for the Big East financially. I wasn't getting from the article that the author is recommending adding 4 new members to help alleviate USF's isolation.

Quote:Also, many Miami students are from the northeast. It was initially important to Miami to continue relationships with northeastern schools.

And more importantly, whether they will admit or not, is that the lack of playing teams from the Big East is affecting attendance at their games. I've done the breakdowns of Miami attendance with the ACC schools and the Hurricane fans haven't taken to the new conference mates all that well.

Even ignoring entirely last year, when they imploded, Miami's average attendance at games against current Big East foes in 2002, 2003, 2004, and 2005 was 56,924 a game whereas against current ACC foes it was 53,513 -and that is with the 2 FSU games in 2002 and 2004 totalling 160,549. Without FSU, but including VT, the ACC teams drew an average of 41,493 Miami fans.

(Note that the VT game when in the BE, which drew well for Miami fans, is not in the Big East total either).

Now when you factor in that the FSU games would have been played whether Miami remained in the Big East or not, that's a difference of 15.5 K a game for 4 games each year - or 62K tickets a year not sold due to the switch in conferences.

Of course, the move to the ACC was for long-term financial stability, not short term. So once the full payouts start coming and the rivalries established, all of the above might become meaningless. Or, it could become apparent that the trend is there to stay, at least with any ACC team not named FSU.

Further, if the ACC football league performs over the next two years the way it has performed the last two years then it is quite possible that the conference payout is going to be reduced in the next round of contract negotiations, because just as the league's football contract was overpriced in 2003 and about to be adjusted downward, ABC/ESPN might decide based upon the performance of the ACC the current contract is also overvalued.

So, if the Big East were to split, it might be better to wait to see what develops and then depending upon how the ACC performs over the next two years in terms of football possibly target Miami and BC first to see if there is any interest in joining with the football schools before contemplating the others. A longshot for sure, but one never knows.

As for the rest of your post regarding contracts and what they may be like in terms of a split, I've begun to reply to that with a post to SO#1.

Cheers,
Neil

UM has not been good for 2 years.. not just last year... when UM is on top...which they were in the BE... the draw ok... when they are not in national title hunt.. they dont.

Shannon Panther Wrote:ECU lacks the media market but has greater appeal regionally than the other 2 candidates. Geography is better than Memphis but still on the periphery of the conference. Would add another non contiguous state to the footprint. Good football history but in a recent downturn. No BB history to speak of. Would be BB roadkill in the new conference. Facilities for FB good and improving, BB needs updated. Solid tier 3 academic school. Excellent support for the FB program. Tidewater area is decent recruiting area. Ability to bring bowl doubtful. Good relationship with WVU, poor relationship with UL. Stiffed 'Cuse at the last minute on a game.

Decent observation, but just a couple of things.....

The "media market" issue regarding ECU is simply a non-factor when the rubber hits the road....truth be told, the way the "markets" are set up, areas deeply in the "ECU market" are considered by the "market makers" to actually be in the Raleigh/Durham "market" - although they are served by media from BOTH areas. If everything was "equal", as it should be, ECU's actual "market" would jump into the 50's at worst......but truth be told, the "media market" issue is an overblown fallacy....if "media markets" were the true test of the worth of a school, many of the top programs in the country wouldn't get a sniff......Terry Holland has made it clear (in public) that "media market" will not be a problem for ECU if/when a next round of expansion rolls around......

As for bowls, obviously there are no guarantees, but I'd bet dollars to doughnuts that the bowl in Charlotte would be VERY happy to see ECU on it's list of possibilities each season, as the trip is just far enough from Greenville to warrant an overnight stay, but close enough that we could easily ensure 20-30k+ for a game - and they know that....

Regarding Syracuse and the "last minute"...that issue has been hashed and re-hashed here and is simply a non-issue....we acted w/in the contract in that situation (legal buyout), and actually provided Syracuse with a replacement game(s) with an ACC opponent......just to get clarity on that issue myself, I emailed Terry Holland about it a few weeks ago, and he assured me that the relationship between ECU and Syracuse is just fine, and that any hard feelings that might have been had when that situation arose have been smoothed over nicely now....

ECU's ultimate goal is to put itself in the best possible position it can be in - not unlike every other school in the country.....and we will and are doing everything possible to ensure that we get into that position in the near future......whether it be in the Big East, or somewhere else.....we simply are not satisfied with being on the outside looking in...but struggling and fighting for what we need is nothing new to us - we have been fighting unc-ch and ncsu in this state for 50+ years for things like a medical school, university status, equal funding, etc, etc, etc.....but the bottom line is that we almost always put forth the effort to get what we're striving for, regardless of the odds against us...I think that even if you don't see it already, we're doing the same in regards to achieving BCS status for this program....and I fully believe in my heart that we will get it somehow, sometime, some way....

Again, I wasn't at all trying to attack you for your "handicap" of the schools - and I want to make clear that I have no ill will towards UCF or Memphis at all (hell, I'd like us ALL to have BCS status), but I think sometimes ECU gets a bad rap b/c we as fans push a little harder than some - but like I said, that is our nature - what we've been used to - and I hope folks can understand that during all these endless threads about expansion.....

Capital Pirate Wrote:Regarding Syracuse and the "last minute"...that issue has been hashed and re-hashed here and is simply a non-issue....we acted w/in the contract in that situation (legal buyout), and actually provided Syracuse with a replacement game(s) with an ACC opponent......just to get clarity on that issue myself, I emailed Terry Holland about it a few weeks ago, and he assured me that the relationship between ECU and Syracuse is just fine, and that any hard feelings that might have been had when that situation arose have been smoothed over nicely now....

No offense CP, but I can't believe you wasted your AD's time to respond to a question like that.

What do you think he would say?

The relationship is TERRIBLE?

Coach Holland has an "open door" policy concerning ECU athletics and encourages us to contact him with ANY questions we might have concerning the athletic program......and he usually responds same-day......

I don't see it as "wasting his time" at all, and apparently, neither does he, as he takes the time to respond - and exchange pleasantries while doing so...he set this up from day one, and hasn't let up since.

The Syracuse issue is one that is VERY important in the grand scheme regarding our relationships with Big East member schools, and it was a point I needed clarification on...and he was MORE than happy to explain the entire situation to me and also clarify the relationship in it's current status.....and for the record, if the relationship wasn't good, I would fully expect him to say so.....he is extremely blunt and honest in his discussions in public and online about matters concerning ECU......

We have a very good AD.....

The only split that is happening is the split FROM REALITY.When and if a major player in football like a psu,nd or bc or umd is open to a move to the BE,a significant benefit will happen for BE football.Besides that or the move of Navy to BE football,nothing is likely to change given the BE BCS membership and the lucrative tv packages.Extra and slighty better non bcs bowl games or an extra league game ARE NOT WORTH a split in the BE.

goodknightfl Wrote:UM has not been good for 2 years.. not just last year... when UM is on top...which they were in the BE... the draw ok... when they are not in national title hunt.. they dont.

In 2004 they were a Top 10 team and missed out on the BCS Bowl game by losing to VT in the final game of the season.

In 2005, they were still vying for the championship game and to meet up with FSU for a revenge game that year until they lost to GT (at home) in the next to last game of the year. Which means that all of the ACC games used to calculate the average attendance, except one (Virginia, the last game of the year), they were in contention for a BCS Bowl game.

The early numbers show that the casual fans in the Miami area prefer teams from Florida and from the northeast. Even when they played UConn before they were even in the Big East, they sold over 50K tickets for that game. The only two old BE teams Miami, when good, didn't attract 50K crowds for were Temple and Rutgers.

With Temple gone and Rutgers now good, the only BE team Miami probably wouldn't attract 50K, when vying for a BCS Bowl, is Cincinnati.

When in the hunt for a BCS Bowl, Miami wasn't able to attract 50K for Duke, Wake, UNC (yes that game was affected by a hurricane, but that was still 30K and not likely to go much over 40K). And we know the same would have held true for Virginia as well, even if they were still playing for an ACC championship game after the GT debacle.

Now, could the above change as rivalries grow? Sure, but the early returns are not good.

Cheers,
Neil

UTEPDallas Wrote:Envy is one of the 7 capital sins.

The sky is the limit for UCF......of all the C-USA schools.....they're the ones with the biggest potential: state of the art on campus facilities, over 40k students, Florida recruiting, Orlando market, high profile fooball coach.....just to name a few.

Yes I envy a school we had to sign off on to let in from the A-Sun, sure All that and in 10 years they have managed 1 BCS win over a 3-8 team, and 6 total wins over teams above .500. Yes I envy their cheap football stadium that cost as much as some teams in CUSA's expansions, commuters and empty seats, 5th page coverage at best market, and shamed coach with a losing record. Florida? We have been at times in the past and can be the best football program in our state. Its up for grabs and it's a strong recruiting area as well that produced 84 D1a players last year with many going out of state and is also one of the fasted growing. I like our location just fine and those state schools in our stadium where we can measure ourself.

BTW comfortable in your hypocracy trying to talk smack on one side and saying it has no place on here.

goodknightfl Wrote:UM has not been good for 2 years.. not just last year... when UM is on top...which they were in the BE... the draw ok... when they are not in national title hunt.. they dont.

In 2004 they were a Top 10 team and missed out on the BCS Bowl game by losing to VT in the final game of the season.

In 2005, they were still vying for the championship game and to meet up with FSU for a revenge game that year until they lost to GT (at home) in the next to last game of the year. Which means that all of the ACC games used to calculate the average attendance, except one (Virginia, the last game of the year), they were in contention for a BCS Bowl game.

The early numbers show that the casual fans in the Miami area prefer teams from Florida and from the northeast. Even when they played UConn before they were even in the Big East, they sold over 50K tickets for that game. The only two old BE teams Miami, when good, didn't attract 50K crowds for were Temple and Rutgers.

With Temple gone and Rutgers now good, the only BE team Miami probably wouldn't attract 50K, when vying for a BCS Bowl, is Cincinnati.

When in the hunt for a BCS Bowl, Miami wasn't able to attract 50K for Duke, Wake, UNC (yes that game was affected by a hurricane, but that was still 30K and not likely to go much over 40K). And we know the same would have held true for Virginia as well, even if they were still playing for an ACC championship game after the GT debacle.

Now, could the above change as rivalries grow? Sure, the early returns are not good.

Cheers,
Neil

oKAY TIGERSHARKTWO, here is a question for you.What kind of rating do the big east bb cities give the fb schools for the big east? In other words, since Depaul is in chicago, how much of big east rating do you have in fb during the season. I would imagine the same as they did iin CUSA. none. They are only interest in the big east for bb or another olympic sports but not for fb because they dont field a team. That is a proven fact that schools that dont have fb team usually dont support their confernce but choices another(state school).
What kind of contraxt could the bebb schools get without the fb schools?Not very good, I dont think. How will it effect the big east name if the fb bolts. Will not here about the big east until bb season that would drop the be bb school to mid-major status. Now the fb schools would be consider a major player with that line up just from the beginning.add in a national program from either fb or bb and that contract goes up automaticly. Therefore, the new conference would make more money than the big east without fb.TS2, what makes you think that ESPN or CBS would not pony up as much money as they did when the old ACC was.at 9 teams. Add Memphis bb to that league, ESPN and CBS would be in a bidding war for that conference from a bb point of view.

gdayre Wrote:oKAY TIGERSHARKTWO, here is a question for you.What kind of rating do the big east bb cities give the fb schools for the big east? In other words, since Depaul is in chicago, how much of big east rating do you have in fb during the season. I would imagine the same as they did iin CUSA. none. They are only interest in the big east for bb or another olympic sports but not for fb because they dont field a team. That is a proven fact that schools that dont have fb team usually dont support their confernce but choices another(state school).

While I have no idea what kind of ratings BE football games get in the Chicago area, I do believe there are stations in Chicago, Milwaukee, Boston, and even Baltimore (a late pick-up if I remember correctly) that televise the BE Game of the Week and also the Inside The Big East Conference television show.

Like with any product, it is about market penetration as well as rankings. As long as coaches can sell to perspective recruits and their families that in addition to ESPN national coverage there is coverage of the conference on local stations as well - that is a plus - regardless of actual ratings.

Could the league do without this? Of course. They have done so in the past and could do so again. Is the price too high to continue what benefit the league does get from this? Yes, under the 8-8 format. But if it were 9-3, 10-4, or 12-4 in favor of the football schools? Perhaps, perhaps not. Might depend upon the programs involved.

Cheers,
Neil

omnicarrier Wrote:

SO#1 Wrote:

omnicarrier Wrote:The new BE TV contracts is going to pay the BE 27 million a year for basketball and approximately 15 million a year for football.

The 27 million a year bb contract is based upon:

1) National name programs such as UConn, Louisville, Syracuse, Georgetown, Cincinnati, Villanova, and Notre Dame;

2) Top 10 markets that include NYC, Chicago, Philly, Boston, and DC;

3) And a huge number of games to choose from.

If the league loses all of the bb schools, including ND, the value of the bb contract goes down significantly. Now, it is conceivable that can be compensated for by sharing the pie between a lesser number of institutions and care in who is added. But if the all-sports conference expands beyond 9, with the likely first two candidates being UCF and ECU, I'm not convinced that will be the case.

Then it comes down to will the addition or additions add enough in football revenue to not just carry their own weight for that sport but be enough to compensate for any loss in bb revenue.

Again, UCF, ECU, and Memphis are not Miami, VT, and BC. They aren't Louisville, Cincinnati, and South Florida either, mainly because there is no Louisville amongst them - at this point in time.

Cheers,
Neil

Neil.
Just curious, how much BB TV contract do you think we can get after the split? I’m only thinking just our current 8 FB members.

That's tough to say, but these are the potential variables that might determine the value of said contract:

1) National Programs - UConn, Syracuse, Louisville, Cincinnati

2) Top 10 Markets - NYC, slight claim to Philly and Boston

3) Number of conference games - 56 (vs. the current 128)

What do you think the bb contract would be worth for the new 8 team league?

Cheers,
Neil

Neil, I am asking you.

Just thinking out loud about market value.

Normally a national program don’t has boundary. So interest is not confined to their local region. A successful program usually delivers local interest (local pride) and a successful team in a large local region bring with them large TV rating which is covet by all network.

To make this market thing work private schools need to associate themselves with public school regardless of their location. Because by nature private have smaller alumni base to draw their fans from than public school and is being perceived as more exclusive and less accessible to the general population which makeup a majority of your audience. I don’t believe DUKE would become a national program without having rivalry with UNC.


A reverse role – in the same market

Georgetown and George Washington, if it were another way around would Georgetown be a national program of today. How about Villanova and Saint Joseph’s, if the role was reverse? If we asked Saint Joseph’s instead Villanova to joins us. Where would Villanova be now? Would they be a national program as today?

Would Georgetown and Villanova programs deliver the same value to Atlantic 10 as they would to the Big East? If we are to swap those programs right now with Saint Joseph’s and George Washington, would Georgetown and Villanova bring in the same amount of $$$ to Atlantic 10’s basketball TV contract as they to the Big East? Would Saint Joseph’s and George Washington bring about the same value as Georgetown and Villanova bring to the Big East if they are in the Big East right now? They are in the same market. If not the same why not? This is just an exercise of market value.
This will lead to question whose need who’s.

Do you believe we can get at least $13.5M a year for BB TV contract?
What is more likely? The 8 catholic Big East gets $13.5M a year TV contract or Eastern 8 get $13.5M for BB TV contract. If both leagues get less that then that the winner is TV networks.

SO#1 Wrote:

omnicarrier Wrote:

SO#1 Wrote:

omnicarrier Wrote:The new BE TV contracts is going to pay the BE 27 million a year for basketball and approximately 15 million a year for football.

The 27 million a year bb contract is based upon:

1) National name programs such as UConn, Louisville, Syracuse, Georgetown, Cincinnati, Villanova, and Notre Dame;

2) Top 10 markets that include NYC, Chicago, Philly, Boston, and DC;

3) And a huge number of games to choose from.

If the league loses all of the bb schools, including ND, the value of the bb contract goes down significantly. Now, it is conceivable that can be compensated for by sharing the pie between a lesser number of institutions and care in who is added. But if the all-sports conference expands beyond 9, with the likely first two candidates being UCF and ECU, I'm not convinced that will be the case.

Then it comes down to will the addition or additions add enough in football revenue to not just carry their own weight for that sport but be enough to compensate for any loss in bb revenue.

Again, UCF, ECU, and Memphis are not Miami, VT, and BC. They aren't Louisville, Cincinnati, and South Florida either, mainly because there is no Louisville amongst them - at this point in time.

Cheers,
Neil

Neil.
Just curious, how much BB TV contract do you think we can get after the split? I’m only thinking just our current 8 FB members.

That's tough to say, but these are the potential variables that might determine the value of said contract:

1) National Programs - UConn, Syracuse, Louisville, Cincinnati

2) Top 10 Markets - NYC, slight claim to Philly and Boston

3) Number of conference games - 56 (vs. the current 128)

What do you think the bb contract would be worth for the new 8 team league?

Cheers,
Neil

Neil, I am asking you.

Just thinking out loud about market value.

Normally a national program don’t has boundary. So interest is not confined to their local region.

This is a chicken or an egg type of thing. UConn and Syracuse built their national program status by playing in major media centers such as NYC, Philly, Boston, and DC. Had they not played in those cities the number of times that they did, would they have have become tnational programs? Now without a doubt, other factors such as coaching and facilities contributed to that rise as well, but playing in major markets helped considerably as well.

Quote:A successful program usually delivers local interest (local pride) and a successful team in a large local region bring with them large TV rating which is covet by all network.

True, but who is to guarantee that Syracuse and UConn will continue to be national programs? And if one or both should falter, will playing in Pitt, Louisville, Cincinnati, Morgantown, etc. pick them up?

If Memphis falls, will playing in the C-USA help rebuild them?

Quote:To make this market thing work private schools need to associate themselves with public school regardless of their location. Because by nature private have smaller alumni base to draw their fans from than public school and is being perceived as more exclusive and less accessible to the general population which makeup a majority of your audience. I don’t believe DUKE would become a national program without having rivalry with UNC.

Ummm...St. John's, Georgetown, Villanova, etc., were doing just fine before UConn came along. They didn't use UConn to build up their programs - rather it was the reverse. UConn built its program on the backs of Syracuse and those three privates.

Why the separation now has more to do with football, not public versus private. And since football requires numerous alums or at least major interest from the non-alums in the area they are in (something bb does not) and a lot of $$$ for coaching, facilities, and scholarships - it's harder for privates to keep up, even in terms of bb - not impossible, but harder.

Quote:A reverse role – in the same market

Georgetown and George Washington, if it were another way around would Georgetown be a national program of today. How about Villanova and Saint Joseph’s, if the role was reverse? If we asked Saint Joseph’s instead Villanova to joins us. Where would Villanova be now? Would they be a national program as today?

A reverse question for you, had the Big East formulated with West Virginia and VT instead of Georgetown and Villanova, would UConn have developed into a bb national program?

Quote:Would Georgetown and Villanova programs deliver the same value to Atlantic 10 as they would to the Big East? If we are to swap those programs right now with Saint Joseph’s and George Washington, would Georgetown and Villanova bring in the same amount of $$$ to Atlantic 10’s basketball TV contract as they to the Big East?

Villanova and Georgetown would initially bring more value to the A10 than St. Joseph's and GW would to the Big East - because they both have national name recognition and markets. St. Joseph and GW only would have markets.

When the split occurs, we are not simply losing markets - we are losing national name programs as well.

Now some questions for you. The football schools split and have UCF join as #9. Calhoun and Boeheim retire and the replacement coaches aren't so good and both programs falter.

Will Syracuse and UConn's ride back to national prominence be easier or harder without Georgetown and Villanova?

Quote:Do you believe we can get at least $13.5M a year for BB TV contract? What is more likely? The 8 catholic Big East gets $13.5M a year TV contract or Eastern 8 get $13.5M for BB TV contract.

Neither will get anywhere close to 13.5 million for bb. As I see it, the two leagues as separate entities will split 15 million with the football schools probably getting 9 and the bb schools getting 6.

It's definitely a case where the sum of the whole is far greater than the sum of the parts.

Cheers,
Neil

Pardon me, but I thought rating was how tv decided whether something was worthy to stay on or to pull it from tv. I always thought that if the rating werent there then it would be pulled. I had no ideal that the station had no say in these things.

omnicarrier Wrote:

SO#1 Wrote:

omnicarrier Wrote:

SO#1 Wrote:

omnicarrier Wrote:The new BE TV contracts is going to pay the BE 27 million a year for basketball and approximately 15 million a year for football.

The 27 million a year bb contract is based upon:

1) National name programs such as UConn, Louisville, Syracuse, Georgetown, Cincinnati, Villanova, and Notre Dame;

2) Top 10 markets that include NYC, Chicago, Philly, Boston, and DC;

3) And a huge number of games to choose from.

If the league loses all of the bb schools, including ND, the value of the bb contract goes down significantly. Now, it is conceivable that can be compensated for by sharing the pie between a lesser number of institutions and care in who is added. But if the all-sports conference expands beyond 9, with the likely first two candidates being UCF and ECU, I'm not convinced that will be the case.

Then it comes down to will the addition or additions add enough in football revenue to not just carry their own weight for that sport but be enough to compensate for any loss in bb revenue.

Again, UCF, ECU, and Memphis are not Miami, VT, and BC. They aren't Louisville, Cincinnati, and South Florida either, mainly because there is no Louisville amongst them - at this point in time.

Cheers,
Neil

Neil.
Just curious, how much BB TV contract do you think we can get after the split? I’m only thinking just our current 8 FB members.

That's tough to say, but these are the potential variables that might determine the value of said contract:

1) National Programs - UConn, Syracuse, Louisville, Cincinnati

2) Top 10 Markets - NYC, slight claim to Philly and Boston

3) Number of conference games - 56 (vs. the current 128)

What do you think the bb contract would be worth for the new 8 team league?

Cheers,
Neil

Neil, I am asking you.

Just thinking out loud about market value.

Normally a national program don’t has boundary. So interest is not confined to their local region.

This is a chicken or an egg type of thing. UConn and Syracuse built their national program status by playing in major media centers such as NYC, Philly, Boston, and DC. Had they not played in those cities the number of times that they did, would they have have become tnational programs? Now without a doubt, other factors such as coaching and facilities contributed to that rise as well, but playing in major markets helped considerably as well.

Quote:A successful program usually delivers local interest (local pride) and a successful team in a large local region bring with them large TV rating which is covet by all network.

True, but who is to guarantee that Syracuse and UConn will continue to be national programs? And if one or both should falter, will playing in Pitt, Louisville, Cincinnati, Morgantown, etc. pick them up?

If Memphis falls, will playing in the C-USA help rebuild them?

Quote:To make this market thing work private schools need to associate themselves with public school regardless of their location. Because by nature private have smaller alumni base to draw their fans from than public school and is being perceived as more exclusive and less accessible to the general population which makeup a majority of your audience. I don’t believe DUKE would become a national program without having rivalry with UNC.

Ummm...St. John's, Georgetown, Villanova, etc., were doing just fine before UConn came along. They didn't use UConn to build up their programs - rather it was the reverse. UConn built its program on the backs of Syracuse and those three privates.

Why the separation now has more to do with football, not public versus private. And since football requires numerous alums or at least major interest from the non-alums in the area they are in (something bb does not) and a lot of $$$ for coaching, facilities, and scholarships - it's harder for privates to keep up, even in terms of bb - not impossible, but harder.

Quote:A reverse role – in the same market

Georgetown and George Washington, if it were another way around would Georgetown be a national program of today. How about Villanova and Saint Joseph’s, if the role was reverse? If we asked Saint Joseph’s instead Villanova to joins us. Where would Villanova be now? Would they be a national program as today?

A reverse question for you, had the Big East formulated with West Virginia and VT instead of Georgetown and Villanova, would UConn have developed into a bb national program?

Quote:Would Georgetown and Villanova programs deliver the same value to Atlantic 10 as they would to the Big East? If we are to swap those programs right now with Saint Joseph’s and George Washington, would Georgetown and Villanova bring in the same amount of $$$ to Atlantic 10’s basketball TV contract as they to the Big East?

Villanova and Georgetown would initially bring more value to the A10 than St. Joseph's and GW would to the Big East - because they both have national name recognition and markets. St. Joseph and GW only would have markets.

When the split occurs, we are not simply losing markets - we are losing national name programs as well.

Now some questions for you. The football schools split and have UCF join as #9. Calhoun and Boeheim retire and the replacement coaches aren't so good and both programs falter.

Will Syracuse and UConn's ride back to national prominence be easier or harder without Georgetown and Villanova?

Quote:Do you believe we can get at least $13.5M a year for BB TV contract? What is more likely? The 8 catholic Big East gets $13.5M a year TV contract or Eastern 8 get $13.5M for BB TV contract.

Neither will get anywhere close to 13.5 million for bb. As I see it, the two leagues as separate entities will split 15 million with the football schools probably getting 9 and the bb schools getting 6.

It's definitely a case where the sum of the whole is far greater than the sum of the parts.

Cheers,
Neil

Omni, if your saying that the BE fb schools will not be able to get more than 13.5 million for its basketball if they split, I would have to disagree. If you dont think the BE fb schools could garner more than $9 million for a basketball tv contract, I definitly disagree. Maybe I misunderstood the point you were making, but a basketball league with the likes of Louisville, WV, Rutgers Syracuse, Uconn, Cincy, USF and Pitt would fetch much more than 9 million. At $9 million, that would be the least of all the bcs leagues by far, when that league could clearly match any league in tradition and value and tv sets.

cuseroc Wrote:

omnicarrier Wrote:

SO#1 Wrote:

omnicarrier Wrote:

SO#1 Wrote:

omnicarrier Wrote:The new BE TV contracts is going to pay the BE 27 million a year for basketball and approximately 15 million a year for football.

The 27 million a year bb contract is based upon:

1) National name programs such as UConn, Louisville, Syracuse, Georgetown, Cincinnati, Villanova, and Notre Dame;

2) Top 10 markets that include NYC, Chicago, Philly, Boston, and DC;

3) And a huge number of games to choose from.

If the league loses all of the bb schools, including ND, the value of the bb contract goes down significantly. Now, it is conceivable that can be compensated for by sharing the pie between a lesser number of institutions and care in who is added. But if the all-sports conference expands beyond 9, with the likely first two candidates being UCF and ECU, I'm not convinced that will be the case.

Then it comes down to will the addition or additions add enough in football revenue to not just carry their own weight for that sport but be enough to compensate for any loss in bb revenue.

Again, UCF, ECU, and Memphis are not Miami, VT, and BC. They aren't Louisville, Cincinnati, and South Florida either, mainly because there is no Louisville amongst them - at this point in time.

Cheers,
Neil

Neil.
Just curious, how much BB TV contract do you think we can get after the split? I’m only thinking just our current 8 FB members.

That's tough to say, but these are the potential variables that might determine the value of said contract:

1) National Programs - UConn, Syracuse, Louisville, Cincinnati

2) Top 10 Markets - NYC, slight claim to Philly and Boston

3) Number of conference games - 56 (vs. the current 128)

What do you think the bb contract would be worth for the new 8 team league?

Cheers,
Neil

Neil, I am asking you.

Just thinking out loud about market value.

Normally a national program don’t has boundary. So interest is not confined to their local region.

This is a chicken or an egg type of thing. UConn and Syracuse built their national program status by playing in major media centers such as NYC, Philly, Boston, and DC. Had they not played in those cities the number of times that they did, would they have have become tnational programs? Now without a doubt, other factors such as coaching and facilities contributed to that rise as well, but playing in major markets helped considerably as well.

Quote:A successful program usually delivers local interest (local pride) and a successful team in a large local region bring with them large TV rating which is covet by all network.

True, but who is to guarantee that Syracuse and UConn will continue to be national programs? And if one or both should falter, will playing in Pitt, Louisville, Cincinnati, Morgantown, etc. pick them up?

If Memphis falls, will playing in the C-USA help rebuild them?

Quote:To make this market thing work private schools need to associate themselves with public school regardless of their location. Because by nature private have smaller alumni base to draw their fans from than public school and is being perceived as more exclusive and less accessible to the general population which makeup a majority of your audience. I don’t believe DUKE would become a national program without having rivalry with UNC.

Ummm...St. John's, Georgetown, Villanova, etc., were doing just fine before UConn came along. They didn't use UConn to build up their programs - rather it was the reverse. UConn built its program on the backs of Syracuse and those three privates.

Why the separation now has more to do with football, not public versus private. And since football requires numerous alums or at least major interest from the non-alums in the area they are in (something bb does not) and a lot of $$$ for coaching, facilities, and scholarships - it's harder for privates to keep up, even in terms of bb - not impossible, but harder.

Quote:A reverse role – in the same market

Georgetown and George Washington, if it were another way around would Georgetown be a national program of today. How about Villanova and Saint Joseph’s, if the role was reverse? If we asked Saint Joseph’s instead Villanova to joins us. Where would Villanova be now? Would they be a national program as today?

A reverse question for you, had the Big East formulated with West Virginia and VT instead of Georgetown and Villanova, would UConn have developed into a bb national program?

Quote:Would Georgetown and Villanova programs deliver the same value to Atlantic 10 as they would to the Big East? If we are to swap those programs right now with Saint Joseph’s and George Washington, would Georgetown and Villanova bring in the same amount of $$$ to Atlantic 10’s basketball TV contract as they to the Big East?

Villanova and Georgetown would initially bring more value to the A10 than St. Joseph's and GW would to the Big East - because they both have national name recognition and markets. St. Joseph and GW only would have markets.

When the split occurs, we are not simply losing markets - we are losing national name programs as well.

Now some questions for you. The football schools split and have UCF join as #9. Calhoun and Boeheim retire and the replacement coaches aren't so good and both programs falter.

Will Syracuse and UConn's ride back to national prominence be easier or harder without Georgetown and Villanova?

Quote:Do you believe we can get at least $13.5M a year for BB TV contract? What is more likely? The 8 catholic Big East gets $13.5M a year TV contract or Eastern 8 get $13.5M for BB TV contract.

Neither will get anywhere close to 13.5 million for bb. As I see it, the two leagues as separate entities will split 15 million with the football schools probably getting 9 and the bb schools getting 6.

It's definitely a case where the sum of the whole is far greater than the sum of the parts.

Cheers,
Neil

Omni, if your saying that the BE fb schools will not be able to get more than 13.5 million for its basketball if they split, I would have to disagree. If you dont think the BE fb schools could garner more than $9 million for a basketball tv contract, I definitly disagree. Maybe I misunderstood the point you were making, but a basketball league with the likes of Louisville, WV, Rutgers Syracuse, Uconn, Cincy, USF and Pitt would fetch much more than 9 million. At $9 million, that would be the least of all the bcs leagues by far, when that league could clearly match any league in tradition and value and tv sets.

Well, at least one aspect is that the total number of conference games that ESPN is going televise goes down from 144 (for the 16 team BE). I don't know how many TV appearances the ACC used to have (when they were 9) but I imagine it would be less than that.

Thats true. But with all the other bcs conferences getting $20 million plus for their basketball it doesnt make since that a 9 team BE would make less than half of what the other conferences get. A nine team BE getting less than half of what an 11 team Big 10 getting. ESPN is broadcasting alot of low quality BE games like Seton Hall/Providence out of those 144 games. With a 9 team BE, that consisted of Memphis for example, there are going to be alot more quality higher rated games that espn would be crazy not to pay for, since we would be able to play a round robin schedule. So just because there would be less games for espn to broadcast doenst necessarily mean that our basketball tv contract would take a large hit on that premise. Quantity would be replaced by more quality.

And the 9 team acc was getting over $23 million a year before expansion. So by the time the split comes, you will have to also consider inflation.

cuseroc Wrote:Thats true. But with all the other bcs conferences getting $20 million plus for their basketball it doesnt make since that a 9 team BE would make less than half of what the other conferences get. A nine team BE getting less than half of what an 11 team Big 10 getting.

First, the question was posed to me about an 8 team Eastern 8 and an 8-team Big East/Catholic League. Not a 9 team league that may or may not include Memphis.

Second, while I don't have the breakdowns of the recently renewed contracts for the conferences involved, this is how the old bb contracts were:

ACC - 25 million for 9 teams
Big 10 - 15 million for 11 teams
Big East - 15 million for 14 teams
Big 12 - 10 million for 12 teams
SEC - 12 million for 12 teams

No one but the ACC was making over 20 million in basketball.

In the cases above, this is what I think some were being paid for:

ACC

National name programs - UNC, Duke, NC State, Maryland, and GT

Top 50 Markets - DC, Atlanta, Baltimore, Charlotte, Raleigh/Durham, Greensboro/Winston-Salem

# of Conference Games - 72

B10

National name programs - Indiana, Mich. St., Illinois, Michigan, and Ohio State

Top 50 Markets - Chicago, Detroit, Minneapolis/St.Paul, Cleveland, Indianapolis, Columbus, Milwaukee, Cincinnati, Grand Rapids

# of Conference Games - 88-92 (can't be bothered to figure it out exactly)

B12

National name programs - Kansas, Oklahoma State, Oklahoma, Texas

Top 50 Markets - Dallas, Houston, Denver, St. Louis, Kansas City, San Antonio, Oklahoma City

# of Conference Games - 96

Eastern 8

National name programs - UConn, Syracuse, Louisville, Cincinnati

Top 50 Markets - NYC, Philly, Tampa, Pittsburgh, Cincinnati, Louisville

# of Conference Games - 56

Now, how much of a difference is there between the Big 12 and the Eastern 8 in terms of national name programs and markets? Is there as significant a gap between the first two items when comparing the two conferences as there is in the actual number of games being paid for?

All I know about the new Big 12 contract is that it is worth 60 million a year total. Which tells me that football with the championship game is probable at least 45 of that 60, if not 48.

But using the low mark of 45, that means the new Big 12 bb contract is no more than 15 million a year. So with a similar number of name programs and similar markets (and my including Philly in the Eastern 8's market - due to Rutgers - can be viewed a stretch to some) why would the networks pay just as much for less than 60% the number of games?

Now take 60% of 15 million, and what do you get? 9 million - which is what I am estimating the ballpark figure for the Eastern 8 league would be.

Disagree with it, if you choose, but I think this quick analysis is close to the mark. Perhaps someone else would be willing to provide their analysis and insight on this issue?

Cheers,
Neil