Here is how it plays in November..............

Bush takes 274 Electoral Votes (270 required to win election)

Alabama-9
Alaska-3
Arizona-10
Arkansas-6
Colorado-9
Florida-27
Georgia-15
Idaho-4
Indiana-11
Kansas-6
Kentucky-8
Louisiana-9
Mississippi-6
Missouri-11
Montana-3
Nebraska-5
Nevada-5
North Carolina (Ha, Ha, Ha...)-15
North Dakota-3
Ohio-20
Oklahoma-7
South Carolina-8
South Dakota-3
Tennessee-11
Texas-34
Utah-5
Virginia-13
West Virginia-5
Wyoming-3

Throw Iowa (7), Pennsylvania (21), New Mexico (5) and Wisconsin (10) in as toss ups going last minute for Bush, and we have a run away.

The key will again be Florida. Ohio and Pennsylvania may effectively cancel each other but Bush will need to take both of them if he loses Florida. If Bush takes one of them and the other leaners and loses Florida, this puts the decision in the lap of Congress (269-269).

But, Bush will take Florida like Teddy's butt takes a barstool. Got it covered.

RandyMc Wrote:Here is how it plays in November..............

Bush takes 274 Electoral Votes (270 required to win election)

Alabama-9
Alaska-3
Arizona-10
Arkansas-6
Colorado-9
Florida-27
Georgia-15
Idaho-4
Indiana-11
Kansas-6
Kentucky-8
Louisiana-9
Mississippi-6
Missouri-11
Montana-3
Nebraska-5
Nevada-5
North Carolina (Ha, Ha, Ha...)-15
North Dakota-3
Ohio-20
Oklahoma-7
South Carolina-8
South Dakota-3
Tennessee-11
Texas-34
Utah-5
Virginia-13
West Virginia-5
Wyoming-3

Throw Iowa (7), Pennsylvania (21), New Mexico (5) and Wisconsin (10) in as toss ups going last minute for Bush, and we have a run away.

The key will again be Florida.  Ohio and Pennsylvania may effectively cancel each other but Bush will need to take both of them if he loses Florida.  If Bush takes one of them and the other leaners and loses Florida, this puts the decision in the lap of Congress (269-269).

But, Bush will take Florida like Teddy's butt takes a barstool.  Got it covered.

well i hope you are right

RandyMc Wrote:Throw Iowa (7), Pennsylvania (21), New Mexico (5) and Wisconsin (10) in as toss ups going last minute for Bush, and we have a run away.

The key will again be Florida. Ohio and Pennsylvania may effectively cancel each other but Bush will need to take both of them if he loses Florida. If Bush takes one of them and the other leaners and loses Florida, this puts the decision in the lap of Congress (269-269).

But, Bush will take Florida like Teddy's butt takes a barstool. Got it covered.

Ohio may still be in play. I think Kerry takes Pennsylvania. Never counted on Minnesota to be close nor Hawaii.

I think we are close to a run away.

If Ohio goes Bush............................forget about it!

I'm not feeling as confident about Ohio. Things look to be very tight there with Kerry being in the lead in some cases.

It will come down to who turns out their base.

The way I see it, these are the only toss ups left: Florida, Ohio, Iowa, Minnesota, Wisconsin and New Mexico.

My fear is a tie: 269-269.

This is my theory:

The Big Three

The Cliff's Notes version of this race has always been Ohio, Pennsylvania and Florida. Two out of three wins. It's more complicated now, but let's look at the Big Three.

I think Kerry has Pennsylvania. It's been leaning his way for a while.

And while it's a statistical dead heat, I have a hunch that Kerry wins Ohio. Gore gave Ohio up for dead four years ago and lost by just three points. The Democratic ground game here is strong. Being in the margin of error means a Kerry win here. That's my hunch.

People smarter than myself think Florida may go Bush's way -- although the fact that they allow early voting there would seem to help the Democratic ground game.

Obviously, if Kerry wins the Big Three, he wins. But...

The mid-sized three

... assuming Bush keeps Florida.... the focus goes to the upper Midwest: Iowa, Minnesota and Wisconsin. They went for Gore four years ago, but they are toss ups now.

Give Bush Florida, and Kerry needs all three of these. I think he's most at risk in Wisconsin.

Bush has been making it interesting in Hawaii and Michigan, but Kerry keeps those states.

New Mexico

Assuming Kerry loses Florida and Wisconsin but keeps the other toss ups... the entire election comes down to New Mexico.

I have no hunch about New Mexico -- except it means we would all be up very late.

If Bush wins New Mexico, we would have a tie and the the House of Representatives would decide the next president. Otherwise, Kerry wins.

Obviously I'll be focused on Ohio, because I live here. It's key.

But I'll be paying special attention to Florida and Wisconsin, too.

I sure hope it doesn't come down to New Mexico.

Kerry is trending in Fl., OH, and Pa. Sorry right wingers but it looks like it's going to be Kerry. It's time for our nation to heal. I for one will not gloat. It's time for our nation to come together again.

Dogger Wrote:Kerry is trending in Fl., OH, and Pa. Sorry right wingers but it looks like it's going to be Kerry. It's time for our nation to heal. I for one will not gloat. It's time for our nation to come together again.

Do you think Kerry is going to pull this country together? HA! Fat chance. The people voting for Bush that dislike Kerry, HATE KERRY! Hate isn't a strong enough word I have for him. He shouldn't be allowed to run PERIOD!

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RebelKev Wrote:The people voting for Bush that dislike Kerry, HATE KERRY! Hate isn't a strong enough word I have for him. He shouldn't be allowed to run PERIOD!

Thats wierd, because a lot of folks that are voting for Kerry, HATE BUSH! They hate BUSH so much that they are voting for someone that when they are questioned about why they are voting Kerry, the only answer they give is "anybody but Bush"

All the more reason to vote for a third party. If I vote for this guy, I'll piss off the Dems. If I vote for this guy, I'll piss off the Reps. If I vote for a third party, people will be pissed anyway, but I won't have to take fault for it. :rolleyes:

The people that hate Bush, hate Republicans in general. I don't hate Democrats in general, but absolutely DESPISE John EFFIN, TRAITOR Kerry.

Also remember, when you vote for Kerry tomorrow, remember that you are voting for the person the terrorists want to win. Nice huh?