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Analysis of 2004 Newspaper Endorsements
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MAKO Offline
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From Editor and Publisher (<a href='http://www.editorandpublisher.com/eandp/news/article_display.jsp?vnu_content_id=1000684885' target='_blank'>Linky</a>)
Newspaper Picks: An Analysis of the 2004 Endorsements So Far

By Greg Mitchell

Published: October 26, 2004 3:20 PM EDT

NEW YORK
When the smoke clears next Wednesday (if it does) will anyone say that newspaper endorsements helped decide the next president?

Yes, everyone knows newspaper picks in presidential races don't count for very much, but they do mean something. Surveys by E&P and others in previous years showed that roughly 5 to 10% of voters (or more) felt that editorials had some influence when they cast their ballots. In a battleground state that's not insignificant.

So, without overstating that influence, let's examine what could happen next Tuesday in several key states.

First, as we have detailed in our daily endorsement tally, Sen. John Kerry now holds a fairly narrow lead in the number of endorsements, but he has gained many more of the larger papers, holding about a 17 million to 12 million edge by circulation. Most telling, however, is that at least 35 papers that backed Bush in 2000 have now switched to Kerry, and another nine that supported Bush before have declared their neutrality this year. Only five so far have gone from Gore to Bush.

This imbalance may be critical. There is a popular misperception that most newspaper endorsements inevitably go Democrat, but E&P surveys in the past have shown that the majority, in fact, back Republicans.

This is true more for smaller newspapers, but even big-city metros are usually split. Seventy-two of the largest papers divided right down the middle in 2000. In 2004, the same papers (at least the ones that have announced their picks) favor Kerry by about a 3-2 margin.

Now, on to a few swinging states, and some predictions, giving (perhaps) undue weight to editorial endorsements:

FLORIDA: Bush is in big trouble here, at least if newspapers have any sway. Every single large paper has gone for Kerry, with the Orlando and Bradenton papers abandoning Bush and The Tampa Tribune (formerly for Dubya) sitting it out. This is how bad it is for the president: As far we know, his two biggest Sunshine State catches so far are the Ocala Star-Banner and The Ledger in Lakeland. So let's give this state to Kerry. In fact, if Bush pulls this one out, E&P promises never to give any weight to editorial endorsements in the future.

PENNSYLVANIA: More bad news for Bush. As expected, the two Philly dailies and the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette backed Kerry, and The Morning Call in Allentown also switched to him. The Scranton and Harrisburg papers, previously pro-Bush, declared neutrality. Bush did pick up switches in York and Easton, but we have to give this state to Kerry.

COLORADO: With Dean Singleton taking over as publisher at The Denver Post, both of that city's papers lined up for Bush. Kerry picked up a switch in Boulder, but it's not enough. This state goes in the Bush column.

MICHIGAN: Unlike in previous years, the Detroit papers are not split, with the Free-Press going for Kerry and the News, shockingly, sitting it out. Kerry also picked up switches in Flint and Muskegon. Score this for Kerry.

OHIO: Too tough to call. Of the two big Bush papers from 2000, The Plain Dealer is now (officially) neutral and The Columbus Dispatch offered a Bush endorsement that was critical of the president. Elsewhere, Kerry gets Dayton, Toledo, and Akron, while Bush gets Cincinnati and Canton.

IOWA: Kerry gets the Des Moines paper and a switch in Davenport. Bush gets Cedar Rapids. Give it to Kerry.

MINNESOTA: Kerry grabbed the Minneapolis paper but the Saint Paul Pioneer Press has yet to make a call.

OREGON: Did anyone notice that this state went from tossup to leaning left (according to the pundits) right after The Oregonian switched from Bush to Kerry?

WASHINGTON: Ditto here, when The Seattle Times jumped to Kerry. The Dem now has both Seattle papers, plus Tacoma's.

MAINE: The Portland paper stayed with Kerry and Bangor gave up on Bush. Need we say more?

So who wins on Tuesday? If Kerry's newspaper boost in Florida, Michigan, and Pennsylvania means anything, he can afford to drop Ohio and still take home the big prize. But that’s a big "if." Stay tuned.
10-27-2004 10:09 AM
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Ninerfan1 Offline
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What a dumb article.
10-27-2004 10:38 AM
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Bourgeois_Rage Away
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I despise newspaper endorsements.
10-27-2004 10:46 AM
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GrayBeard Offline
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Bourgeois_Rage Wrote:I despise newspaper endorsements.
If a newpaper wants to be true to the news, they would not endorse anyone. A true NEWSpaper would be non-partisan.
10-27-2004 10:49 AM
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MAKO Offline
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Kerry endorsements: (the "G" or "B" in parentheses is whether the paper endorsed Bush or Gore in 2000)

ALABAMA
The Anniston Star (G): 26,527

ARIZONA
Arizona Daily Star (Tucson) (G): 109,592

CALIFORNIA
San Francisco Chronicle (G): 501,135
The Sacramento Bee (G): 303,841
San Jose Mercury News (G): 279,539
The Fresno Bee (G): 166,531
The Press Democrat (Santa Rosa) (G): 89,384
The Modesto Bee (G): 87,366
Merced Sun-Star: 17,247

COLORADO
Daily Camera (Boulder) (B): 33,419

CONNECTICUT
The Day (New London) (B): 39,553

FLORIDA
St. Petersburg Times (G): 358,502
The Miami Herald (G): 325,032
South Florida Sun-Sentinel (Ft. Lauderdale) (G): 268,927
The Palm Beach Post (G): 181,727
Daytona Beach News-Journal (G): 112,945
Florida Today (Melbourne) (G): 90,877
Bradenton Herald (B): 52,163

GEORGIA
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution: 418,323

HAWAII
The Honolulu Advertiser (G): 145,943

ILLINOIS
Daily Herald (Arlington Heights) (B): 150,794

INDIANA
The Journal Gazette (Fort Wayne) (G): 61,205

IOWA
The Hawk Eye (Burlington) (G): 19,000

KENTUCKY
Lexington Herald-Leader (G): 122,748

MAINE
Portland Press Herald (G): 73,211

MASSACHUSETTS
The Boston Globe (G): 452,109
The Standard-Times (New Bedford): 35,299

MICHIGAN
Detroit Free Press (G): 354,581
The Muskegon Chronicle (B): 46,505
Battle Creek Enquirer: 24,831
The Argus-Press (Owosso): 11,438

MINNESOTA
Star Tribune (Minneapolis) (G): 377,058
Duluth News Tribune: 45,688
The Free Press (Mankato): 21,591

MISSOURI
St. Louis Post-Dispatch (G): 281,198
The Kansas City Star (G): 269,188
Columbia Daily Tribune (B): 18,874

NEVADA
Nevada Appeal (Carson City): 15,296

NEW HAMPSHIRE
Concord Monitor (G): 19,984

NEW MEXICO
The Albuquerque Tribune (B): 13,536

NEW YORK
The New York Times (G): 1,133,763

NORTH CAROLINA
The Charlotte Observer (G): 231,369
The Daily Reflector (Greenville): 25,777

NORTH DAKOTA
Grand Forks Herald (G): 32,385

OHIO
Dayton Daily News (G): 183,175
Akron Beacon Journal (G): 139,220

OREGON
The Oregonian (Portland) (B): 342,040
Mail Tribune (Medford): 35,524
The Register-Guard (Eugene) (G): 72,411
Statesman Journal (Salem): 56,298
East Oregonian (Pendleton): 10,236
The Daily Astorian (Astoria): 8,429

PENNSYLVANIA
The Philadelphia Inquirer (G): 387,692
The Philadelphia Daily News (G): 139,983

TENNESSEE
The Jackson Sun (G): 35,561

VIRGINIA
The Virginian-Pilot (Norfolk) (G): 201,473
The Roanoke Times: 100,447

WASHINGTON
The Seattle Times (B): 237,303
Seattle Post-Intelligencer (G): 150,901

WEST VIRGINIA
Charleston Gazette (G): 49,529
10-28-2004 01:02 PM
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MAKO Offline
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Bush Endorsements: (the "G" or "B" in parentheses is whether the paper endorsed Bush or Gore in 2000)

ALABAMA
Mobile Register (B): 100,244

ARIZONA
The Arizona Republic (Phoenix) (B): 466,926

ARKANSAS
Southwest Times Record (Fort Smith) (B): 37,636

CALIFORNIA
The San Diego Union-Tribune (B): 361,317
The Press-Enterprise (Riverside): 191,802
The Record (Stockton) (B): 62,139
The Reporter (Vacaville) (B): 18,227

COLORADO
Rocky Mountain News (Denver) (B): 286,004
The Pueblo Chieftain: 52,208
Daily Times-Call (Longmont): 21,465
Loveland Daily Reporter-Herald: 17,548
Daily Record (Canon City): 8,164

DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA
The Washington Times (B): 100,228

GEORGIA
Savannah Morning News (B): 57,288

ILLINOIS
Chicago Tribune (B): 578,843
The Pantagraph (Bloomington) (B): 47,931
The News-Gazette (Champaign-Urbana): 39,190

INDIANA
The Indianapolis Star (B): 253,778

IOWA
Globe-Gazette (Mason City): 18,947

MASSACHUSETTS
Boston Herald (B): 248,988
The Sun (Lowell) (B): 50,369

MICHIGAN
The Grand Rapids Press (B): 139,216
The Oakland Press (Pontiac): 65,484

NEBRASKA
Omaha World-Herald (B): 197,627

NEVADA
Las Vegas Review-Journal (B): 170,061

NEW HAMPSHIRE
The Union Leader (Manchester) (B): 59,605
Foster's Daily Democrat (Dover): 22,995

NEW MEXICO
Carlsbad Current-Argus (B): 8,030
Las Cruces Sun-News (B): 22,168

NEW YORK
New York Post (B): 678,012
The New York Sun: 18,000

OHIO
The Repository (Canton) (B): 66,014
The Times Reporter (New Philadelphia): 23,956
The Courier (Findlay) (B): 22,319
The Advocate (Newark): 22,217

OKLAHOMA
Tulsa World (B): 139,383

OREGON
The News-Review (Roseburg): 19,272
Daily Courier (Grants Pass): 16,392

PENNSYLVANIA
York Daily Record (G): 46,554

TENNESSEE
The Leaf-Chronicle (Clarksville): 22,057

TEXAS
The Dallas Morning News (B): 546,177
San Antonio Express-News (B): 252,889
Fort Worth Star-Telegram (B): 247,167
El Paso Times: 74,278
Amarillo Globe-News (B): 51,105

VIRGINIA
Richmond Times-Dispatch (B): 191,732
The Free Lance-Star (Fredericksburg) (B): 47,866

WASHINGTON
The Spokesman-Review (Spokane) (B): 100,760
The Columbian (Vancouver) (B): 51,498

WEST VIRGINIA
Charleston Daily Mail (B): 34,539
The Intelligencer (Wheeling): 20,689

WISCONSIN
Oshkosh Northwestern (B): 21,748
The Chippewa Herald (Chippewa Falls) (B): 6,804
10-28-2004 01:03 PM
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GrayBeard Offline
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That's great and all, but check into this for me. Of the papers that switched endorsed parties between 2000 and 2004, check and see how many of them have changed editors/ownership. That would be even more helpfull. For those that did not have changes in ownership or editors, what in particular made them change their affiliation?
10-28-2004 01:22 PM
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GrayBeard Wrote:That's great and all, but check into this for me.&nbsp; Of the papers that switched endorsed parties between 2000 and 2004, check and see how many of them have changed editors/ownership.&nbsp; That would be even more helpfull.&nbsp; For those that did not have changes in ownership or editors, what in particular made them change their affiliation?
I'm not about to read every endorsement, but I think I know a thing or two about how journalists' minds work.

They want people to tell the truth. Lie to a journalist and he or she will never treat you right again. It's basically rule No. 1.

The fact that almost none of the justifications Bush offered for going to war materialized hurts him with editorial pages.

The fact that Bush refuses to acknowledge that the war was a mistake also hurts him with editorial pages.

These are probably two of the biggest reasons why newspapers that would honestly consider endorsing either canddiate are switching.

For the ideologically conservative newspapers, these are factors. But there are two other big ones:

-- Bush has been spending like mad. I'm pretty sure Bush-era spending increases have outpace anything Clinton did (and, if true, this fact really is underreported).
-- Bush's deficits are enormous.

Final thought: The alternative paper here offered an interesting backstory on how the Plain Dealer decided to not endorse.

Apparently, four years, ago, the editorial board was 9-1 in favor of Gore. But the guy on the losing end was the publisher, and he overruled them all.

This year, the editorial board was 7-3 in favor of Kerry. The publisher had a mind to overrule his editorial board again, but they talked him into not endorsing, which the staff considers a moral victory and the best they could do
10-28-2004 06:20 PM
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Interesting endorsement from a suburban Columbus chain:

<a href='http://www.snponline.com/FRONT/Stories/MAIN.HTML' target='_blank'>http://www.snponline.com/FRONT/Stories/MAIN.HTML</a>
10-29-2004 01:49 PM
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Quote:-- Bush has been spending like mad. I'm pretty sure Bush-era spending increases have outpace anything Clinton did (and, if true, this fact really is underreported).

Right on both counts (it's true, and it's being underreported).
10-31-2004 11:13 AM
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