Voting levels expected to be well above 2000 turnout

By Thomas Frank
Newsday

Salt Lake Tribune

WASHINGTON - Up to 120 million people are expected to cast ballots Tuesday, about 60 percent of the eligible voters and an increase from 105 million in 2000, when turnout was 51 percent. As the intensity of the presidential race draws wide attention, political parties and interest groups are making dramatic efforts to get voters to the polls.

Evidence of high turnout is already emerging in states such as Oregon, where 38 percent of the mail ballots sent to all registered voters have already been returned. In Florida, polling stations that opened statewide Oct. 18 are drawing long lines.

''Who ever heard of lines for early voting?'' asked Yale political scientist Donald Green, co-author of a new book on voter turnout. Green estimates that parties and other groups will spend $300 million in unprecedented yearlong efforts to identify potential supporters, stay in touch through phone calls, visits and e-mails and make sure they vote.

Many experts and Democrats say high turnout will benefit John Kerry more than President Bush because it will likely indicate more votes being cast by Democratic supporters such as black voters and low-income people, who usually vote at lower rates. ''Lower turnout will benefit the president,'' Kerry senior adviser Tad Devine said.

The Bush campaign agrees that voter turnout will decide the election - but says that will benefit their grass-roots campaign that was conceived after the 2000 election, when Bush received 500,000 fewer votes than Al Gore.

''Our base is completely solidified and energized,'' campaign spokesman Reed Dickens said. The campaign believes it failed in 2000 to turn out 4 million social-conservative supporters.

Registration and Election Day drives could play an increasing role in future elections if they are seen as having determined Tuesday's outcome. America Votes, a coalition of 33 liberal groups seeking Democratic votes in swing states, has vowed to continue operating.

The efforts come as many states are trying to ease voting by open polling stations before Election Day or allowing anyone to vote by absentee mail ballot instead of requiring people to explain why they will be out of town. Thirty-five states now have some form of early voting, according to nonpartisan Electionline.org.

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