From the Asheville Citizen-Times

Heels' fans cringe at NBA possibilities
By Keith Jarrett, Staff WriterMay 14, 2004 11:43 p.m.
It's this time next year, and North Carolina basketball coach Roy Williams is convening what's left of his basketball team.

"Have a seat, Quentin. Over there, Reyshawn. Come on in, Justin. Welcome, Wes."

Names don't ring a bell?

In the here today, gone tomorrow world that has turned recruiting into a crapshoot, that possibility is suddenly very real.

It's a scenario that makes Tar Heels fans shudder and recall the days of Will Johnson in the starting lineup.

Here's how Williams could easily lose the top seven players off next season's team and be left with a starting lineup that would be challenged to beat Mars Hill.

Graduating seniors Jackie Manuel, Melvin Scott and Jawad Williams are joined on the departure list by three juniors who could very well be NBA-ready - Raymond Felton, Rashad McCants and Sean May.


Assume freshman Marvin Williams, who almost made the jump from high school to the pros, does the one-and-gone thing and also leaves.

All of a sudden a program good enough to win a national championship looks more like Clemson.

A once-strong incoming four-player recruiting class could be cut in half. N.C.'s all-time leading scorer JamesOn Curry had his scholarship offer rescinded after felony drug charges, and J.R. Smith is making himself available for the NBA draft.

Smith, the latest in an increasingly long line of high seniors who don't consider committing early to a college an actual commitment, hasn't signed with an agent and could still end up in Chapel Hill.

That's UNC's best-case scenario and would leave Roy Williams with a possible starting five for the upcoming season that could beat the Atlanta Hawks by 15 points - Felton, May, McCants, Smith and Marvin Williams, plus a five- deep bench of veteran players.

If that's true, enjoy it while you can - which could be the mantra now of college hoops.

Strong programs like UConn, Duke and Louisville took huge hits after the season from either underclassmen departing early or high school signees who took a pass on the old college trey.

Duke looked absolutely loaded for next season, ready to plug in prep star Shaun Livingston for Chris Duhon at point guard, the only significant loss for a Final Four squad.

Now Livingston and super freshman Luol Deng have made themselves available for the NBA draft, potentially making the Blue Devils a significantly less dangerous team.

Roy Williams insists he won't recruit kids who say they may be one and gone guys and said he walked away from a top recruit last season who believed he fit in that category.

But with the constantly changing landscape of the game, both in guys leaving school early and those who never make it to campus, recruiting has become as unpredictable as the word of a teenager.

Contact Jarrett at 232-5867 or KJarrett@CITIZEN-TIMES.com.

We'll be fine. With the 5/8 rule being washed away, Roy will fill any holes wherever he can. I really don't think we'll see all 7 guys leaving the team after this year. Obviously, the seniors are all gone. Their losses will hurt in many ways, but they aren't irreplaceable. Unless he gets into monster shape and rips through the competition this year, I think Sean May is going to have to come back for his senior year to prove some skeptics wrong.

Snagging Quentin Thomas instead of Shaun Livingston is looking like a wise move by Roy (I say "looking" because we haven't seen Thomas in uniform yet). We're set at PG even if Ray leaves after this year. Roy's already signed Marcus Ginyard to the wing guard spot, so that's a guard to come in and take over for Manuel, Scott, and maybe McCants. I don't know much about Ginyard, but he doesn't seem to be the type to jump to the pros (doesn't seem highly-rated enough for that). As for the post, I already mentioned that I didn't think May would be gone. I do know that no matter who leaves, Roy will be bringing in at least one or two big men for '05-'06.

So, even with the worst possible scenario of people leaving, here's what the lineup would look like:

PG - Quentin Thomas, Wes Miller
SG - Marcus Ginyard, Freshman Guard
SF - David Noel, Reshawn Terry
PF - Byron Sanders, Freshman Forward
C - Freshman Center, Freshman Center

That's not as bad as it seems when you add some quality freshman talent. Keep in mind we'd have tons of scholarships to give out. Even with the 5/8 rule in place, we'd have five scholarships to give out (and probably more without it). And, I don't imagine a scenario that bleak....

-JD

When did 5/8 go away? I can't believe I missed that. I hated that rule, particularly with the NBA taking anybody that can walk and chew gum, much less play basketball.

I missed the whole 5/8 thing, too. I've just heard rumors about it... and then, all of a sudden, everyone talked like it was gone. I just assumed that I missed what happened when I was in Vegas....

-JD

If I recall correctly it did go through 1 or 2 weeks ago.

Like we didn't see this coming already already anyways, about the mass exodus we could be facing...