(02-07-2018 01:30 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  

(02-07-2018 12:53 PM)Wedge Wrote:  

(02-07-2018 12:12 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  

(02-07-2018 11:37 AM)Wedge Wrote:  

(02-07-2018 11:22 AM)Attackcoog Wrote:  I fully expect the numbers would likely balance.

That's very unlikely. Players are only going to move "up" if two things are true: The player is really good and he has a rock-solid starting opportunity on the new team. A star QB who is setting records at Fresno State isn't going to move to USC for just "a chance" to compete against the two or three elite QBs they already have; if he's that good then he is already a top NFL draft prospect and won't risk becoming a backup at USC. That QB is only going to consider moving if it's a situation like Oregon a few years ago, where the Ducks got caught with no good QBs on the roster and brought in Vernon Adams as a graduate transfer.

Players with that ideal "move-up" situation will be vastly outnumbered by players who are buried on the depth chart at Alabama or Ohio State, or some other program where they stack up 4-star and 5-star players, and who realize after a year or two that they will get far more playing time elsewhere.

Maybe. The "star" G5 QB will move if the P5 QB's at 'Bama are busts. Remember, this isnt a draft. The G5 QB is going to move to a P5 where there is void at QB--preferably a team that is just a QB away from being really good. Its basically going to resemble free agency in the pro game--except you cant use salary increases to attract or retain a prospect. I honestly think this will be really bad for G5's that lose a coach. Think about it--its basically going to affect G5's almost as badly as NCAA sanctions. Its basically like losing a coahc and a bunch of schollies.

There are not that many situations like that. A player who has proven himself elite is not going to move unless there is both a void and the "new" team is good enough to be attractive to him. There are not that many voids at top programs because they recruit 2 or 3 or 4 deep at every position. As we can see from this year's title game, Bama already had more than one QB capable of winning games.

The number of guys not getting enough playing time at top programs is much greater than the number of "breakout stars" on G5 teams, and as I mentioned in my last comment, many of those stars are going to stay where they are because they are already NFL prospects and their real goal is playing in the NFL, not playing at Texas or USC.

The kind of players who might move "up" more often are good players, not good enough to be NFL material, who are on bad teams and would rather be part of a really good team than start on a really bad team. But that's not limited to G5 teams, obviously; a player like that at Kansas is just as likely to leave as a similar player at UTEP.

Let me distill it down to my basic line of thought---the P5 wins most every HS recruiting battle they fight against the G5. The idea that this recruiting success would flip completely on its head if free transfer was allowed seems fairly unlikely to me. We will just have to agree to disagree on this one.

It's true that if an elite player at a G5 program moves, he is likely to move "up" or not move at all -- what I'm saying is that the number of players at top programs who would move out in search of more playing time is a larger number.