(11-18-2017 12:53 AM)TodgeRodge Wrote:  

(11-17-2017 06:14 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(11-17-2017 05:49 PM)Underdog Wrote:  

(11-17-2017 04:21 PM)Nerdlinger Wrote:  

(11-17-2017 01:21 PM)Underdog Wrote:  I've combined posts 1 and 2 into this response:

1) I disagree with your opinion that the AAC will get “dismantled regardless of what happens to WV… [and] It's more desirable for the Big 12 to expand east than west.” If WV is not left behind in the B12 when it implodes, the remaining B12 schools would have to be absolutely asinine to expand eastward into the footprints of the ACC, B1G, and SEC with the unrealistic expectation of competing for viewers in those three markets. In fact, if WV is left behind, the remaining B12 schools would be better off cutting ties with it and absorbing most of the MWC. They would control certain markets like New Mexico and Nevada while only competing with the PAC 12 for most of their remaining markets.

2) I will expound more on point #1 to illustrate a realistic realignment scenario which would dissolve the MWC: UT, OU, TT, and OSU go to the PAC 12. The ACC decides to take WV; this leaves Baylor, ISU, KU, KSU, and TCU. Except for TCU, the aforementioned B12 schools were going to absorb the Big East in 2011 after possibly losing UT, OU, TT, and OSU:

“The sources said that if Texas, Oklahoma, Texas Tech and Oklahoma State were to leave the Big 12 and the five remaining schools do not have an opportunity to join the ACC, SEC or Big Ten, the Big 12 would move to absorb remaining Big East schools -- not the other way around.”

http://www.espn.com/college-football/sto...ources-say

The only thing that prevented this from happening was UT refusing to give up control of the LHN to the PAC 12:

“But it appears the ‘deal’ fell through before either president could take any sort of action, as Scott and Texas reportedly could not come to an agreement on how to pursue the Longhorn Network.”

http://collegefootballtalk.nbcsports.com...c-12-snub/

My point: In 2011, an almost decimated B12 still had the power to absorb/raid the Big East—which was considered a power conference lower in status to the B12. Consequently, if the B12 implodes in the future and WV escapes, it’s a strong possibility that the same schools (along with TCU) will look to absorb and dissolve the entire MWC. If BYU decides to join them, I think Hawaii and San Jose St are left out of the new B16….

I said the AAC is likely to be dismantled, not that it was certain. It's certainly possible that the MWC is targeted more. But I would think it's in the Big 12's interest to expand in the central and eastern US, where most of the population lives. The mountain states are big but outside of a few metro areas don't really contain all that many people. 2) Also, the fact that the Big 12 was already willing to expand east a few years ago if the Texoma 4 left doesn't really support the idea that they'll go west this time.

2) This response was directed at goodknightfl because he posted, “The answer is still no, The AAC and MWC will raid from below.” I simply gave him an actual example of a conference—the Big East—that almost got absorbed and dissolved by the remaining B12 schools. My example also addressed the purpose of this thread which is stated in post #1, “I’m of the opinion the BIG 12 will cease to exist close to or when the existing contract expires which is not really that far out.” Once again, if the remaining B12 schools almost absorbed/dissolved the Big East back in 2011, it would have even more options to remain viable in the future: Raid the AAC, MWC, or both….

For those who know Todge, he posted enlightening information along with the B12 bylaws on "The American Board" to illustrate the possible “collusion” it would take to dissolve the B12—which I never considered. He also pointed out in the B12 bylaws that once schools announce their departure, they also lose their voting rights. This is very important because the remaining schools can invite new members without the departing members impeding the process. Therefore, if UT, OU, TT, and OSU announce that they are going to the PAC 12, the remaining B12 schools can invite other schools to replace them before they actually leave the conference. Furthermore, it would be very difficult to dissolve the B12 even if one school is left behind because of the possible “collusion” involved in moving the departing schools to other conferences. If Todge wants to expound more on the dissolution of the B12, I welcome his comments... which can get lengthy

An announcement in 2023 for movement in 2025 doesn't require a vote and meets Big 12 guidelines. Even an announcement in 2021 for departure in 2023 doesn't leave a penalty too large for the departing to pay. And that kind of movement can happen with any number of schools.

Then it must be considered whether two years out the remaining schools want to go through the legal process, or settle. Settling is in everyone's interest as opposed to paying lawyers. Why settle? They may wish to have some scheduling agreements moving forward with the departed. Most of those are fairly close for travel purposes and the SWC/Big8 schools have plenty of history they don't want to just abandon.

And as far as voting goes. A motion for dissolution only requires 8 votes to pass. Then announcements can be made. It's danged hard to prove collusion. But then this scenario only plays out if things are brokered by the networks.

I've read Todge and he is long on rules and regs and short on settlement and practical business agreements. All contracts have rules, and yet most contracts can be broken for the right settlement. You have to remember that these schools can shackle Texas and OU until about 2023 if they want to, but at what cost? Never being scheduled again? Having to fight it out in court with better financed schools? Taking on popular state flagships when the lawsuit would tick off the majority of the electorate?

What will happen to Kansas State and Baylor will happen to them anyway come 2025. I seriously doubt they put up a major resistance to be left totally out in the cold in 2025, when they can play nice and get concessions that last longer than the buyouts and exit fees.

Personally I think 5 of them could make a P conference if Texas and OU use some leverage it could be as many as 7 depending upon which conferences are involved.

So arguing these points on message boards might make for good fan debate material, but if Texas and OU get ready to leave, particularly if they are taking little brother with them and Kansas and W.V.U. have landing spots then this thing gets done whenever they decide to do it. I doubt KState, Baylor, and T.C.U. want ill will with their money game opponents.

the part in bold is 100% incorrect

the Big 12 has two contracts they have the GOR that ends at the same time the Big 12 TV contract ends and that has NO PROVISIONS FOR LEAVING THE CONFERENCE

the GOR has no notification requirement and it has no penalties and it has no option for giving advanced notification and or paying any amount of money to leave with media rights before te end of the contract and that is 100% by design

the Big 12 ALSO has a contract for conference membership that is 99 years in length from 2012 and that contract for conference membership DOES have a notification requirement and it has a penalty for leaving the conference, BUT it makes clear that giving that notification and paying that penalty does not exempt one from the GOR and it does not invalidate the GOR

and more importantly that Big 12 contract for conference membership requires that any member that is contacts OR IS CONTACTED by another party about leaving the conference is required to notify the conference of that contact within 12 days AND to formally submit a declining letter to that offer and failing to do so puts that member in violation of the contract for conference membership

so the REALITY is there is ZERO chance that 8 members of the Big 12 are all going to get together, all agree to go out and make contact with other conferences AND gain a guarantee to be admitted to those other conferences all within 12 days time

there will be SEVERAL of those members that will not be confident in the fact that they will get an offer from another conference that will be close to what they have in the Big 12 and they are not going to agree to COLLUDE to try and collapse the conference especially if they only LEGALLY have 12 days to do so before they MUST notify the conference or be subjected to legal recourse

and even IF it was possible that 8 of those members would agree to that it would still be next to impossible that they could all find a conference to admit them, get things squared away with that conference and the media partners AND do so within 12 days

and as soon as that 12 days passes and they do not make notification to the 2 members they are attempting to screw and leave behind they WILL absolutely be guilty of collusion and they will be restricted at that point on what votes and actions they can take dealing with the Big 12 and more importantly when it comes to the collusion when they get to court and it is proven that 8 members colluded to kill the conference and did so in violation of the rules calling for 12 days to notify the conference about ANY contact to switch conferences AND to LEGALLY DECLINE that offer well the ones that colluded will be subjected to treble damages

the Big 12 contract for conference membership calls for a forfeiture of the last two years of conference payouts for any member that is leaving which at the time of the final years of the GOR will be about $45 million per year or about $90 million per member leaving

even IF that could be negotiated down as it has been in the past the FACT is that if 8 teams get together and violate the 12 day rules of notification in the contract there is ZERO chance that the two remaining members are going to be looking to negotiate anything down and more importantly as soon as it is proven that the 12 day notification and DECLINE rule was violated AND that there was collusion on the part of 8 other members there would be ZERO reason for those members to negotiate anything down because with the collusion would come a near automatic treble damages or $270 million due per member that colluded to leave the conference and violated the 12 day notification and DECLINE requirement in the contract

there is a ZERO chance that you are going to have 8 conference members, several conferences and a couple of networks get together in 12 days work everything out and keep it a secret and after it goes past 12 days there is NO CHANCE that all involved are going to risk felony perjury to go to court and have all those people from all those organizations one after the other perjure themselves in court to say that "no we did not get together to collude to kill the conference and yes we did all that in fewer than 12 days"

so one can PRETEND that 8 teams in the Big 12 would agree to work together to either switch conferences in 12 days or less and one can pretend that they would actually make that happen in 12 days or less if those 8 teams agreed to that, but that is simply not going to happen

and one can pretend that when it takes longer than 12 days that several dozens of people will all get together and go to court and agree to testify that they got it all done in 12 days when they did not, but that will not happen either

and lastly one would be void of reality if they believed that two members of the Big 12 that were looking at getting $90 million in exit fees from the Big 12 and that have now proven collusion and are due 3X damages would work to negotiate that down "just because things like that happen"

no two members of the Big 12 that get screwed by 8 others in a collusion case that would be EASY to prove would have any reason to take less than the full $270 million PER OTHER MEMBER that colluded against them

and it is highly highly unlikely that any court would look at that easily proven case of collusion and the CLEAR contract language and reduce those 3X damages because there are not courts out there anywhere that view collusion fondly or as "something to negotiate away"

so again it is VERY CLEAR in the 99 year Big 12 contract for conference membership that any team that is contracted or makes contact to ANYONE about leaving the Big 12 has 12 days to notify the conference AND to decline that overture

and failure to do so puts them in violation of that contract and subjected to penalties and limited conference participation in conference business

no one that is sane would believe that 8 members of the Big 12 would think they could ALL gain a SOLID LEGAL new conference membership in 12 days or that they would want to, believe they could or that they actually would get away with colluding to violate that 12 day notification AND DECLINE requirement

the fact is there would be a ton of $35,000 to $45,000 a year people involved in that from multiple organizations and many of them are going to be smart enough to know that annual pay is not worth getting a felony perjury charge and then how would it be possible to make contracts with conferences and TV partners and falsify the dates on those contracts so it appears everything was done in 12 days or less

and when you have publicly traded TV partners well there are even more laws with the SEC (Securities Exchange not the SEC SEC SEC) and general business laws that would but a lot of people in serious legal jeopardy if they were trying to falsify the dates that legal contracts were signed so that when those contracts were brought to court it appeared as though they were all completed in a 12 day window even though they were actually finalized weeks or months later

one needs their head examined if they think that university presidents and inside and outside legal counsel are going to look at a 12 day notice tell the Big 12 about ANY contact to switch conferences AND TO DECLINE THAT CONTACT LEGALLY and they will think "yea lets get with 7 other Big 12 members and several conferences and some TV partners and just ignore that 12 day rule as a group of 8 while we leave two other members screwed and yea we can just negotiate away that $90 million in exit fees and the triple damages for collusion and skate by on all the perjury charges as well I think we can pull that off in secret the risk is well worth it"

all the more so when at least 4 of those members would be thinking they have little chance of finding a new home that is worth a damn and at least a couple of them would have to think they were being set up to be screwed as well

And none of that amount to a hill of beans until a court actually says it does, and in the history of GOR's settlement is the norm. That's true in the recording industry where this type of contract is frequently utilized, and it is untested against state schools subject to appropriations supplied by taxpayers. One might even argue that the only thing preventing a challenge of the GOR is fear of the unknown. So Todge, none of it may be binding or all of it could be binding, but in the history of GOR's settlement is the norm.

And there may be some wiggle room between the ambiguity of the conference contract and that of the GOR. It might be determined that it is unreasonable to constrain a schools ability to withdraw by from one by a 12 day notification and to require a two year notification under the other contract.

Suffice it to say I would love to see it tested. I have some profound doubts about it's supposed air tight nature. And since the ACC GOR is predicated upon the Big 12's it might have a larger reach than the Big 12 if challenged.