I’m of the opinion the BIG 12 will cease to exist close to or when the existing contract expires which is not really that far out. No way will 2/3/4 or whatever current teams left behind be able to raid the AAC and MWC and keep the BIG 12 alive, just not going to happen. The BIG 12 is a victim of geography or lack thereof in terms of big population states and Texas just isn’t big enough to carry this conference on its back long term when it comes to being part of the power country club. Keep in mind this conference has only two marquee programs, Texas and Oklahoma…Both are going to want out close to or when the current deal runs out and when that happens the exodus begins. Some will be left behind..who knows? perhaps programs like Baylor , Iowa St, Kansas St and TCU won’t make it. TCU namely because the C stands for Christian (haha) would the PAC12 or Big10 take a TCU? I think not but who knows…the SEC might but that could be a long shot. TCU is just a few years removed from the MWC, remember that. Baylor is toxic and won’t be on anyone’s radar…I suppose Iowa ST and Kansas State could be long shots to make the cut but in my opinion not.

I think what may happen is the AAC just stands pat and waits for the BIG 12 to dissolve and takes maybe two, TCU and Kansas St. The MWC gets Iowa St and Baylor. Who knows? I also think when the AAC does a new deal the terms coincide or be really close to (not more than a year or two longer) when the BIG 12 ultimately dissolves. Not saying some super AAC TEEVEE deal long terms either. I actually think the AAC is well positioned long term because a handful of teams might get screwed big time if the BIG 12 actually does dissolve at some point.

I believed it then and I have seen nothing to change my mind since all this started a few years ago. When the Big 12 lost Nebraska, Colorado, Texas A&M and Missouri that was more or less the writing on the wall...the replacement of TCU and WVU not now and never will be able to come close to making up for those losses. Loosing Texas A&M and Nebraska was really telling in terms of the beginning of the end of this conference. It just taken longer and made for a much slower death. Heck, if a few tweaks here and there would have happened a few short years ago this conference would already be dead. This conference was literally down to 8 teams before the mad scramble to add TCU/WVU. Just think about that for a second. The BIG 12 gets raided by the PAC12/BIG10/SEC and they have to go the dead conference walking BIG EAST and MWC just to find two replacements.

The Prestige the BIG12 has lost is absolutely real and cannot be overstated. As far as all the Power 5 stuff make no mistake the BIG 12 is at the bottom of the pecking order now and will forever be if they were to hang around, which I don’t think will happen. Is Texas and Oklahoma ok with this for the next 50 years????? I think not and they have lots of options and long term more lucrative ones at that.

I don’t know who or how many get left behind but I don’t think all the current members make the cut. I think it could be as few as 2 or as many as 4.