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(03-04-2018 02:23 PM)bearcatmill Wrote:  

(03-04-2018 12:11 PM)Xpectations Wrote:  

(03-04-2018 11:01 AM)RealDeal Wrote:  

(03-04-2018 09:05 AM)Xpectations Wrote:  Now, if you want to make the argument that there's still some degree of "luck" involved when games are won by a single possession or so, I won't disagree, because a lot can happen.

But if you're going to argue that the metrics prove XU is a weaker team than their resume, I would bet heavily against that.

So what is the root cause of Xavier's "luck" factor. Is it purely luck? Or is it more likely apathy?

So you're arguing that X is a #1 seed caliber team due to their resume by segmenting their games but you're using selective segmentation. If you take that a step further you've played three games against second weekend type teams and gone 1-2 with two of those games being at home. The win over us was over three months ago and the two losses have been convincing. I think Xavier is a second weekend caliber team but a #1 seed and national title contender probably doesn't need to selectively segment their resume to make that case.

No, not making any argument at all regarding X's seed. My only argument is against Mark's clear overuse and trust of metrics, when metrics don't tell the whole story. My point is that Xavier's margin of victory against crappy teams--even though they've beaten all of them--is why their metrics look the way they do.

UC waxes those teams. Xavier plays down to them. But UC also struggle FAR more against good teams, whereas Xavier plays them VERY well.

Putting too much trust in metrics is a very dangerous proposition. They are a starting point but that's all they are.

I agree, metrics don’t tell the whole story. Part of the story you will not hear in Cincinnati is how the refs bailed them out in at least 2 games - GTown and Creighton. It’s called BE protecting it’s seeding.

https://kenpom.com/index.php?s=RankLuck

At some point, luck is bound to run out. You won't find elite company benefiting from so much of it.