The unofficial online home for fans of the University of Cincinnati Bearcats. Part of Collegiate Sports Nation (CSN).

(02-15-2018 06:15 PM)CincyBro Wrote:  

(02-15-2018 12:57 PM)bearcatmark Wrote:  

(02-15-2018 12:26 PM)BearcatMan Wrote:  All you need to know is that since the stat was tracked starting in 2002, no team with an adjD rating of greater than #21 in the country has won the title, and only one (UNC in 2009) fell outside the Top 15. If you don't have an elite defense, you aren't winning the title.

I have UNC as 18 in 2009. But yes... Only 1 champion has had a kenpom adjusted defense outside the top 15, none outside the top 20. (that's 15/16 being top 15 kenpom defenses)

There have been only 3 champions with an adjusted offense outside the top 15 (2 of them are UConn in 2011 and 2014 with 2014 UConn finishing all the way down at 39).

75% (12/16) of our champions have been top 15 in both adjusted defense and adjusted offense. Balance

To add to that. The average final four team has an adj O of 18.5 and an adj D of 14.5.

54 out of 64 (84.3%) final four teams have had an adjusted defense of 25 or better. 46 of 64 (71.8%) have had an adjusted offense of 25 or better. 40 of those have had a top 25 adjusted offense and adjusted defense (62.5%). Defense is a little more important, but balance is easily the biggest thing to look for.

So, right now, only two teams fit the top 15 in O and D criteria. Mich.St. and Purdue. Damn.

Yea. It's a weird year that way. It's why I like UC's chances a lot because their defense is elite elite and I think the offense is actually better than the numbers indicate.

I like Gonzaga and UNC a lot again too. I think both could make nice runs with a good draw. Ohio State is another team that has the balance to be a real threat.