(11-07-2017 11:56 AM)Attackcoog Wrote:  

(11-07-2017 11:29 AM)Frank the Tank Wrote:  The one thing that sports will always have as an advantage over virtually every other form of entertainment is that people watch them live, which means they are long going to be the most desirable type of programming for advertisers. There's also long-term predictability where you can be reasonably certain that people will still watch the NFL/NBA/MLB/P5 in 10 years, whereas even the most popular scripted TV shows eventually run out of steam. Those factors inherently raise the price of sports.

Also, ESPN and other sports networks may need to change their distribution models. However, I'm always perplexed by the arguments that they've paid too much for the NFL/NBA/etc. Those long-term sports contracts might be expensive on paper, but they're also the only things that will keep ESPN and other sports networks *alive* compared to every other cable network. If you really want to see dead sports networks, it will be if Amazon/Google/Netflix/Apple get exclusive NFL and other marquee sports rights. A lot of observers are "undervaluing the value" of keeping those rights out of the hands of those tech companies for the foreseeable future. In essence, there are a lot of short-term expenses with these sports contracts, but that's really the other way that they can survive in the long-term. I'll never understand the thinking that sports networks can survive by showing less sports. That's foolish short-term stock price thinking in a world where content will always be king. The only thing that costs more for ESPN than the NFL is the cost of *not* having the NFL.

Ive said it multiple times. The biggest threat to ESPN as a major power in broadcasting is not cord cutting. The biggest threat to ESPN is that sports leagues will eventually decide to retain their broadcast rights and use a direct to consumer streaming model to maximize profits. That would set ESPN back abut 30 years to a time when they had nothing but Sportscenter and Lumberjack competitions. ESPN will pay to aggressively fight to retain those rights packages in anyway they can because without those live sports rights, ESPN doesnt survive.

The advantage that ESPN has to combat this risk is that is already has the agreements in place with cable and satellite companies to collect the cost of the rights fees for the NFL, NBA and MLB. They have just demonstrated their leverage again in recent negotiations with Altice, whose predecessor Cablevision was notoriously one of the most difficult cable systems to deal with. It would be a huge risk for any of these leagues to walk away from a revenue stream that ESPN has already negotiated in hopes of doing better.