Houston’s going to get plucked from us at some point. Here’s my take on the possibilities:

First, he’s not moving directly to a TOP job. They may be down the road, but he’s not moving directly to Penn State, Alabama, Florida, Florida State, Ohio State, Notre Dame, Michigan, etc.

Secondly, he’s not moving out of his recruiting territory for his next job. There’d be no reason for a lower-P5 job Purdue, Iowa, Miss St, Mizzou, Kansas, Boston College, etc. to consider him. He just doesn’t have the recruiting contacts in that area. And he’s not going to go take a G5 job across the country. That makes no sense.

I don’t see him moving for an incremental pay increase. To me, that’s anything < $1,000,000. He’s got the talent to land a 7-figure job, so I don’t see him taking a 6-figure one.

I see his next job coming from a high-level G5 or a low-level P5 in one of the following states because he knows the territory and has family connections: Virginia, North Carolina, South Carolina, West Virginia, Maryland, Pennsylvania, New Jersey, Tennessee, Georgia, Kentucky.

So in these states, the following are too premier for his next job: Clemson, Georgia, Penn State, and Tennessee. Just not gonna happen.

Then there are schools where the pay increase is “incremental” and I just don’t think he’d uproot his family knowing that an even better job is out there. Here they are with the money each school is paying their 2016 head coach: Georgia Southern (500K), App State (525K), Georgia State (540K), ODU (570K), UNCC (600K), Marshall (765K), WKU (800K), Mid-Tenn State (800K). He’s better than these jobs.

Then there are 2 schools in the 1M range that he might take if offered: ECU ($1M), Temple ($1M). I bet he’d take ECU, but turn down Temple because of location.

Then there are the Big Dogs….geographically suitable (but not perfect), huge salary. Every one of these is a no-brainer. I bet he’d be on radar at most of these schools, but not necessarily the leading candidate: West Virginia ($2.9M), Memphis ($1.8M), Pitt ($1.8M), Louisville ($3.9M), Kentucky ($3.5M), and Rutgers ($2.0M). These schools are a possibility, but unlikely.

Finally, we have the DREAM schools. I personally hope that he lands at one of these, and I hope it happens in like 2-4 more years after a few more National Championships. Huge salary, geographically perfect. He’ll be on the short list for any vacancy at these schools in 1-2 years and I’d wish him well if he goes. All pay between $2.0M and $3.3M: UVA ($3.3M), VT ($3.2), South Carolina ($3.0M), GT ($2.9M), Vandy ($2.6), Maryland ($2.4), Duke ($2.3), Wake ($2.1), Navy ($2.0), and UNC ($2.0)