(10-19-2018 09:03 AM)Nerdlinger Wrote:  

(03-21-2018 09:14 PM)Nerdlinger Wrote:  Revisiting a successful Texoma gambit by the Pac in 2010. Here the ACC and Big 12 are gutted. The remnants band together with Notre Dame, TCU, and a few BE football schools to survive as a power conference. Baylor is left out in the cold.

ACC/Big 16
East: Boston College, Florida State, Miami-FL, Syracuse
North: Louisville, Notre Dame, Pittsburgh, West Virginia
South: Clemson, Duke, Georgia Tech, Wake Forest
West: Iowa State, Kansas, Kansas State, TCU

Big Ten
East: Michigan, Michigan State, Ohio State, Penn State
North: Illinois, Indiana, Northwestern, Purdue
South: Maryland, North Carolina, Rutgers, Virginia
West: Iowa, Minnesota, Nebraska, Wisconsin

Pac-16
East: Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Texas, Texas Tech
North: Oregon, Oregon State, Washington, Washington State
South: Arizona, Arizona State, Colorado, Utah
West: California, Stanford, UCLA, USC

SEC
East: Florida, Georgia, NC State, South Carolina
North: Kentucky, Tennessee, Vanderbilt, Virginia Tech
South: Alabama, Auburn, Mississippi State, Ole Miss
West: Arkansas, LSU, Missouri, Texas A&M

The non-power schools align pretty much the same as in our timeline. What's particularly interesting to me about this scenario is how strong the "leftover" conference is. The weighted mean Sagarin rating (WMSR*) for football from 1998-2017 for the average team in each P4 conference:

SEC: 79.59
Pac-16: 78.64
ACC/Big 16: 76.01
Big Ten: 74.90

* How to calculate current WMSR for a school, using Youngstown State as an example:

Year: Sagarin rating * Weight = Weighted Sagarin rating
1998: 48.76 * 1 = 48.76
1999: 64.47 * 2 = 128.94
2000: 57.43 * 3 = 172.29
2001: 55.00 * 4 = 220.00
2002: 57.94 * 5 = 289.70
2003: 49.54 * 6 = 297.24
2004: 46.25 * 7 = 323.75
2005: 62.39 * 8 = 499.12
2006: 68.55 * 9 = 616.95
2007: 60.83 * 10 = 608.30
2008: 43.52 * 11 = 478.72
2009: 51.71 * 12 = 620.52
2010: 52.29 * 13 = 679.77
2011: 60.01 * 14 = 840.14
2012: 63.57 * 15 = 953.55
2013: 60.39 * 16 = 966.24
2014: 60.15 * 17 = 1,022.55
2015: 58.88 * 18 = 1,059.84
2016: 69.48 * 19 = 1,320.12
2017: 62.34 * 20 = 1,246.80

Sum of weighted Sagarin ratings for 1998-2017 = 12,393.30
Sum of weights for 1998-2017 = 210
Weighted mean Sagarin rating (WMSR) for 1998-2017 = 12,393.30 / 210 = 59.02

Note: 1998 is the first year Sagarin rating came out for football

Re-revisiting this successful Texoma-to-Pac scenario. In reality, if the current Big 12 survives the expiration of its GoR intact and renews for a decade or so, this scenario could actually come to pass in the 2030s when the ACC GoR expires (assuming the market mantra still holds sway in conference expansion decisions).

In any case, for fun, I developed schedules for the P4 conferences. The ACC/Big 16 and SEC have 8-game schedules, with the 4-team pods rotating between two 8-team divisions in a 3-year cycle. Each year, a team plays its division plus 1 interdivision crossover. Each team has a protected crossover for the 2 years out of 3 in which they're not in the same division, as well as an alternate crossover for the 1 year they share a division with the protected crossover. It takes 3 years to play every team once and 6 years to play every team home and away. In that 6-year time span, a team plays their division mates and protected crossover 6 times, their alternate crossover 4 times, and all other teams twice. Here are the crossovers for each team:

Team: Protected Crossover, Alternate Crossover

ACC/Big 16

East
Boston College: Wake Forest, Iowa State
Florida State: Clemson, Kansas State
Miami-FL: Notre Dame, Georgia Tech
Syracuse: Pittsburgh, Duke

North
Louisville: Kansas State, Clemson
Notre Dame: Miami-FL, TCU
Pittsburgh: Syracuse, Kansas
West Virginia: Iowa State, Wake Forest

South
Clemson: Florida State, Louisville
Duke: Kansas, Syracuse
Georgia Tech: TCU, Miami-FL
Wake Forest: Boston College, West Virginia

West
Iowa State: West Virginia, Boston College
Kansas: Duke, Pittsburgh
Kansas State: Louisville, Florida State
TCU: Georgia Tech, Notre Dame

============

SEC

East
Florida: LSU, Tennessee
Georgia: Auburn, Texas A&M
NC State: Mississippi State, Missouri
South Carolina: Arkansas, Vanderbilt

North
Kentucky: Missouri, Mississippi State
Tennessee: Alabama, Florida
Vanderbilt: Ole Miss, South Carolina
Virginia Tech: Texas A&M, Auburn

South
Alabama: Tennessee, LSU
Auburn: Georgia, Virginia Tech
Mississippi State: NC State, Kentucky
Ole Miss: Vanderbilt, Arkansas

West
Arkansas: South Carolina, Ole Miss
LSU: Florida, Alabama
Missouri: Kentucky, NC State
Texas A&M: Virginia Tech, Georgia

The Big Ten and Pac-16 have 9-game conference schedules with no protected crossovers. Their pods also cycle between divisions, but the North and South never share a division, nor do the East and West. For two years, there are Northeast and Southwest Divisions, and for the next two years, there are Northwest and Southeast Divisions. For each team, the 2 interdivision crossovers per year are only against teams in the "opposite" pod (i.e., North vs. South, East vs. West). All this results in each team playing all other teams at least twice in 4 years.

Any thoughts? I can share the schedule grids if anyone's interested.

End-of-regular-season rivalry week in this scenario (opponent in parentheses, * = OOC):

ACC/Big 16
East: Boston College (Syracuse), Florida State (Florida*), Miami-FL (Notre Dame or [bye]), Syracuse (Boston College)
North: Louisville (Kentucky*), Notre Dame (Miami-FL or USC*), Pittsburgh (West Virginia), West Virginia (Pittsburgh)
South: Clemson (South Carolina*), Duke (Wake Forest), Georgia Tech (Georgia*), Wake Forest (Duke)
West: Iowa State (Kansas State), Kansas (Missouri*), Kansas State (Iowa State), TCU (Texas Tech*)

Big Ten
East: Michigan (Ohio State), Michigan State (Penn State), Ohio State (Michigan), Penn State (Michigan State)
North: Illinois (Northwestern), Indiana (Purdue), Northwestern (Illinois), Purdue (Indiana)
South: Maryland (Rutgers), North Carolina (NC State*), Rutgers (Maryland), Virginia (Virginia Tech*)
West: Iowa (Nebraska), Minnesota (Wisconsin), Nebraska (Iowa), Wisconsin (Minnesota)

Pac-16
East: Oklahoma (Oklahoma State), Oklahoma State (Oklahoma), Texas (Texas A&M*), Texas Tech (TCU*)
North: Oregon (Oregon State), Oregon State (Oregon), Washington (Washington State), Washington State (Washington)
South: Arizona (Arizona State), Arizona State (Arizona), Colorado (Utah), Utah (Colorado)
West: California (Stanford), Stanford (California), UCLA (USC or [bye]), USC (Notre Dame* or UCLA)

SEC
East: Florida (Florida State*), Georgia (Georgia Tech*), NC State (North Carolina*), South Carolina (Clemson*)
North: Kentucky (Louisville*), Tennessee (Vanderbilt), Vanderbilt (Tennessee), Virginia Tech (Virginia*)
South: Alabama (Auburn), Auburn (Alabama), Mississippi State (Ole Miss), Ole Miss (Mississippi State)
West: Arkansas (LSU), LSU (Arkansas), Missouri (Kansas*), Texas A&M (Texas*)

Annual OOC rivalry games played earlier in the season: BYU/Utah, Colorado/Colorado State, Iowa/Iowa State, Navy/Notre Dame, Nebraska/Oklahoma, Notre Dame/USC (when at ND), Penn State/Pittsburgh, SMU/TCU

NOTE: Although UNC and Duke no longer play annually in football, they continue to do so in basketball.

Also: MAP OF P4 CONFERENCES!!!