My alternate scenario starts in 2010. The PAC has just added Utah and Colorado, and BYU has decided to go independent in football. The B1G and SEC haven't yet made a move. The Big 12 replaces Colorado with TCU.

The ACC floats the idea of sinking the Big East by poaching Pitt and Syracuse. Clemson and Florida State rebel, and ask to join the SEC. The SEC, who would prefer to get into North Carolina and Virginia instead, approach the Tarheels and Cavs, who turn them down. They decide to go bold, and invite Virginia Tech and NC State along with Clemson and FSU.

Fearing the collapse of the ACC, Carolina and Virginia come back to the B1G, whom they had rejected in the past, with another bold proposal. The B1G is at 11 members. Their proposal is to match the SEC's 16 teams by adding UNC, UVA, Maryland (which had already been furiously flirting with them), Duke (at the insistence of UNC and UVa and the compliance of MD) and Rutgers. This gives them an eastern division with Penn State, Ohio State and Michigan.

The ACC is now on life support, with only four schools left - Miami, Georgia Tech, Wake Forest and Boston College. Aware of the division between football schools and the C7 group, they strike a deal. The Big East will split up, with the ACC taking its football schools: Syracuse, UConn, Pitt, West Virginia, Louisville, Cincinnati and USF. To get back to 12, they also add Temple (a fifth wheel in the MAC).

The ACC has retained the NCAAT credits abandoned by the 8 defectors to the B1G and SEC. The deal gives the C7 the Big East name and tournament credits in exchange for waiving exit fees from their football schools.

The Mountain West, down to 6 after losing TCU and BYU, also makes a bold move. They poach New Mexico State, Fresno, Boise, Nevada and Utah State from the WAC and UTEP from CUSA. CUSA gets back to 12 by taking Louisiana Tech from the Sunbelt.

At this point, Idaho, San Jose State and Hawaii - the remaining WAC schools are left stranded. They may not survive.

There are now 9 conferences (120 members) in FBS. Two conferences are at 16, one is at 9 (likely to expand with FCS moveups), and the remaining 6 at 12 apiece.