(05-17-2017 02:32 PM)stever20 Wrote:  

(05-17-2017 02:17 PM)Frank the Tank Wrote:  

(05-17-2017 02:02 PM)stever20 Wrote:  

(05-17-2017 01:37 PM)YNot Wrote:  

(05-17-2017 01:09 PM)stever20 Wrote:  Big Ten title game last year was #6. Even in a down year for the SEC, the SEC title game was #2- with 1.9 more viewers. In 2015, the Big Ten title game wasn't even in the top 10 for the year. The problem with your logic is that Fox ISN'T guaranteed the top 2 games.

Referring to the top-2 B1G games and 2 of the biggest CFB games...FOX has guaranteed itself the top 2 B1G games - the topic discussed in this thread.

(05-17-2017 01:09 PM)stever20 Wrote:  I really don't think casual fans give a damn about who owns the Big Ten Network. Big Ten fans are going to watch Big Ten football, no matter if it's on ESPN, Fox, FS1, Big Ten Network, or the Lifetime Network. Casual fans aren't going to all of a sudden turn into the Big Ten Network to watch a dog Big Ten game because of the Big Ten being on Fox or FS1.

The casual fan might not care, but FOX absolutely does. There will be extensive cross-promotion and FOX will exploit this to the fullest. A Penn St. fan who watches Rutgers-PSU on B1GN will see the promotion of USC-Stanford or Ohio st.-Michigan St. or Texas-WVU for later broadcast on FOX or FS1. The cross-promotion will make a difference for FOX/FS1 grabbing casuals fans.

Fox isn't guaranteed the top 2 Big Ten games though. I mean this year, it's VERY possible that Penn St/Michigan is the biggest game of the year. And that looks like it will be on ABC/ESPN.

As far as the Big Ten Network scenario that you mention- generally speaking, they would be a hard core Big Ten football fan. So they aren't going to care at all about a USC/Stanford or Texas/WVU game. They would care about the OSU/MSU game- but that would be regardless of where it is at. And casual fans watching a Big Ten game on Fox or FS1 aren't going to watch a dog game on the Big Ten network just because it's advertised there.

stever20 - I think you're conflating what might be the most valuable game at an exact point in time when the game is actually played (which is variable and is inherently unpredictable) versus what someone can reasonably project to be the most valuable game 6 months before it's even played. It's understood that a game like PSU/Michigan or some other game that we're not even thinking of could end up being the biggest Big Ten game of the year when all is said and done.

HOWEVER, when looking at the schedule 6 months from now and you were actually running the network that was spending an extra $50 million for the right to have the #1 game pick overall, there's no question that you would pick Ohio State-Michigan. Even if both teams aren't playing well, that game will STILL provide a good rating. That's all people are saying here. You have to put yourself in the shoes of the Fox executive that has to pick a game TODAY (6 months ahead of time). OSU-Michigan carries both the least amount of risk (it's always getting a good audience regardless of the teams' standing) and arguably the largest amount of upside (e.g. when a season occurs like last year). Whether you want to believe it or not, the ability to make that pick 6 months ahead of time is worth real money in a TV contract.

Let's put it this way: NO ONE at Fox gets fired for picking OSU-Michigan as your #1 TV pick even if ESPN ends up getting a different higher rated Big Ten game when the broadcast actually occurs (just as no one at Fox gets fired for picking, say, Notre Dame-USC over a different Pac-12 game or OU-Texas over a different Big 12 game even if other games end up getting better ratings). Every TV executive on Earth would understand that pick and would just blame it on the inherently unpredictable nature of sports. In contrast, if you're the Fox executive that passes on OSU-Michigan to take a chance on PSU-Michigan and then OSU-Michigan gets a rating like it did last year, then you're getting fired for being an idiot that missed the obvious and tried to be too smart for his/her own good. This is a classic CYA choice. We have the luxury of being the peanut gallery that doesn't have a job on the line in trying to pick what will be the best game 6 months in advance. If it were me making the choice 6 months ahead of time with my own job on the line, I would definitely pick OSU-Michigan every time without question.

I have no problem with that. But my point is, when both packages are known at the end of the season, and the ratings are in, the ratings for both packages are going to be remarkably similar. Sure Fox will get Michigan/Ohio St. They have to select that for the reasons why you said. Even with YNot's projections, he had it within 5 million for the entire season. Not even 500k per game. It is VERY possible that end of the season, ESPN will have the higher rated package.

I just would have thought for 50 million more, Fox would have gotten more breaks than what they got. The extra week they get to pick 1st is a God Awful week- with no good games at all. ESPN is guaranteed to have 1st chance at any Big Ten controlled OOC game(which sometimes can be a HUGE difference between top and 2nd best game for that particular week.

Don't forget that the $50 million difference includes the Big Ten Championship Game, though. That game in and of itself is likely the bulk of the value of the difference much more than getting the #1 regular season game pick. As I noted previously, the B1G CCG was already getting over $23 million per year in the just-expired Fox contract. That value has increased pretty substantially since the original contract was signed due to the CFP raising the value of all P5 CCGs significantly (as chances are high that at least one participant is a CFP contender every year and that has made higher ratings more consistent), the overall competitive bidding situation between Fox and ESPN, and simple inflation. If you told me that the Big Ten Championship Game alone was being valued at over $40 million (meaning the vast majority of the difference between the ESPN and Fox TV packages), I'd certainly believe that number based on how it was previously valued in the BCS era.