(04-17-2018 01:16 PM)BearcatMan Wrote:  

(04-17-2018 12:47 PM)chiefsfan Wrote:  PL relegation battle update: 4 matches left (Or 5 for Southampton/Swansea/West Ham/Brighton

13. Brighton: 36 points -15 GD (To play: vs Spurs, @ Burnley, vs Man Utd, @ Man City, @ Liverpool)
14. West Ham 35 points -18 GD (To Play: @ Arsenal, vs Man City, @ Leicester, vs Man Utd, vs Everton)
15. Huddersfield 35 points -27 GD To Play: vs Everton, @ Man City, @ Chelsea, vs Arsenal)
16. Crystal Palace 34 points -18 GD (To Play: @ Watford, vs Leicester, @ Stoke, vs West Brom)
17. Swansea 33 points -19 GD (To Play: @ Man City, vs Chelsea, @ Bournemouth, vs Southampton, vs Stoke)
----------------------------------
18. Southampton 28 points -20 GD (To Play: @ Leicester, vs Bournemouth, @ Everton, @ Swansea, vs Man City
19. Stoke: 28 points -33 GD (To Play: vs Burnely, @ Liverpool, vs Palace, @ Swansea
20. West Brom: 24 points -25 GD (To Play: vs Liverpool, @ Newcastle, vs Spurs, @ Palace

West Brom can be relegated this weekend with a Loss to Liverpool and a Swansea draw @ Man City. Since the latter isn't likely despite Man City clinching last week, it's likely going to happen the next week.

Stoke could go down as early as the following weekend, but again with Swansea's fixture list, the first realistic opportunity would be the penultimate weekend of the year.

Southampton are in the same boat with Stoke, but with a more favorable fixture list than Swansea, could easily turn that May 8th battle in South Wales into the biggest game of the PL Season.

Keep an eye on Huddersfield and Brighton though. Both are about to face a large number of Top 6 sides over the last few weeks, and could easily struggle to get another point. If Southampton/Swansea both get hot both of those could easily get thrown into the mire. Ditto for West Ham. Very Important Midweek game this week between Saints/Leciester. If Saints lose again, they could be in real trouble. With a win, the pressure gets piled on Swansea who gets sacrificed to Man City this weekend.

The pseudo-South Coast Derby is going to be an incredibly torrid affair in two week's time. I think that's the game that will decide if Soton can avoid the drop.

Huddersfield are the team who have to be sweating the most. I personally don't see more than one point left on their fixture list, and they're only 7 points clear of the drop on a team with a game in hand and a much better GD.

I think 8 points is a bridge too far for Soton, so Brighton should be safe, but the Saints could conceivably get at least 7 points out of Leicester, Bournemouth, Everton, and Swansea alone. One thing's for sure, the Swansea/Soton matchup in the 37th week is going to be crazy.

With all that being said, the oddsmakers really aren't moved. Soton are a 1/2 favorite to go down, while the next "best" odds are Swansea at 4/1.

Yeah, Huddersfield is an interesting case. There's a real possibility they may not get another point, especially if they lose this weekend. (Though I have no confidence in Everton whatsoever) Their goal difference is terrible, and goal difference is usually one of the biggest indicators in who goes down. I've seen some oddsmakers who actually have Huddersfield as 4th favorite to go down over Swansea.

Realistically, Stoke/Southampton are going to need 8 points to have a shot at staying up. (Because it's almost impossible to assume Swansea/Palace finish with their current totals)

I can come up with 8 points for Southampton pretty easily. I am not sure I can say the same about Stoke.

I'm going to say that 37 points guarantees safety this year. 36 might guarantee you safety. Anything less and you are doing a lot of praying. Swansea has the most control of their own destiny since they play both Southampton and Stoke still, but that might be even worse because it puts everything on the line of a single game.