(07-10-2017 01:45 PM)Brookes Owl Wrote:  

(07-10-2017 01:09 PM)stever20 Wrote:  If Kluber can finish with a 2.25ish ERA, Sale will have to be better than he is right now. Period. You might not like it, but ERA matters the most of any pitching stat out there.

Gimme a break, and stop mis-stating my point. Kluber at 2.25 and Sale at 2.88? Kluber ABSOLUTELY is the better pitcher, deserves the CY, and almost certainly will win it. But Kluber at 2.7 and Sale at 3ish or less, with more wins and 300+ Ks? Kluber might still be the better pitcher (depends on the peripherals) but I think Sale wins it.

Summing my argument: You are expecting a lot of Kluber (something he's done once, 3 yrs ago) to reach the stats you are projecting. And, you underestimate the power of 300 Ks when all other stats are relatively equal (or at least balance out).

If the ERA is close, than I have no problem saying that Sale would have it. But if it's anything more than about a .35 gap, it's going to be problematic for Sale. The K's won't allow him to overcome the gap.

And the problem I see with Sale is that he has only once in his 5 years as a starter had a better 2nd half than 1st half. Now it was last year. Part of that though was that he had the uniform suspension if you remember which gave him a bit of a break in July.

2012- 1st 2.19 ERA 2nd 4.03 ERA 4.11 ERA Sep/Oct
2013- 1st 2.97 ERA 2nd 3.19 ERA 3.44 ERA Sep/Oct
2014- 1st 2.08 ERA 2nd 2.28 ERA 2.52 ERA Sep/Oct
2015- 1st 2.72 ERA 2nd 4.33 ERA 4.34 ERA Sep/Oct
2016- 1st 3.38 ERA 2nd 3.28 ERA 4.39 ERA Sep/Oct

As you see in 2 of the 5 years, his 2nd half ERA was a good 1.5 runs or worse than his 1st half ERA. And as you see his September/October stats aren't great at all- only once in his 5 years of a starter sub 3. With 3 of the 5 years his ERA over 4.

I really think there's a good shot we could see it wind up-
Kluber with a 2.75 ERA
Sale with a 3.50 ERA